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Prediction Markets In Theory And Practice
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Book Synopsis Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice by : Justin Wolfers
Download or read book Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice written by Justin Wolfers and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as "information markets," "idea futures" or "event futures", are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, and the lessons from empirical applications which show that market-generated forecasts typically outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Along the way, we highlight areas ripe for future research.
Book Synopsis Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice by : Justin Wolfers
Download or read book Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice written by Justin Wolfers and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prediction Markets, sometimes referred to as quot;information markets,quot; quot;idea futuresquot; or quot;event futuresquot;, are markets where participants trade contracts whose payoffs are tied to a future event, thereby yielding prices that can be interpreted as market-aggregated forecasts. This article summarizes the recent literature on prediction markets, highlighting both theoretical contributions that emphasize the possibility that these markets efficiently aggregate disperse information, and the lessons from empirical applications which show that market-generated forecasts typically outperform most moderately sophisticated benchmarks. Along the way, we highlight areas ripe for future research.
Book Synopsis Prediction Markets by : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-06-16 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.
Book Synopsis Financial Risk Forecasting by : Jon Danielsson
Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities by : Justin Wolfers
Download or read book Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities written by Justin Wolfers and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While most empirical analysis of prediction markets treats prices of binary options as predictions of the probability of future events, Manski (2004) has recently argued that there is little existing theory supporting this practice. We provide relevant analytic foundations, describing sufficient conditions under which prediction markets prices correspond with mean beliefs. Beyond these specific sufficient conditions, we show that for a broad class of models prediction market prices are usually close to the mean beliefs of traders. The key parameters driving trading behavior in prediction markets are the degree of risk aversion and the distribution on beliefs, and we provide some novel data on the distribution of beliefs in a couple of interesting contexts. We find that prediction markets prices typically provide useful (albeit sometimes biased) estimates of average beliefs about the probability an event occurs.
Book Synopsis Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications by : Michael Edward Ruberry
Download or read book Prediction Markets: Theory and Applications written by Michael Edward Ruberry and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this thesis I offer new results on how we can acquire, reward, and use accurate predictions of future events. Some of these results are entirely theoretical, improving our understanding of strictly proper scoring rules (Chapter 3), and expanding strict properness to include cost functions (Chapter 4). Others are more practical, like developing a practical cost function for the [0, 1] interval (Chapter 5), exploring how to design simple and informative prediction markets (Chapter 6), and using predictions to make decisions (Chapter 7).
Book Synopsis The Theory and Practice of Futures Markets by : Raymond M. Leuthold
Download or read book The Theory and Practice of Futures Markets written by Raymond M. Leuthold and published by Free Press. This book was released on 1989 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To find out more about Rowman & Littlefield titles please visit us at www.rowmanlittlefield.com.
Book Synopsis Prediction Markets by : Daniella Acker
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Daniella Acker and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Data on individual trades in prediction markets relating to the 2008 and 2012 US Presidential elections reveal that traders vary enormously in their behavior. This contrasts with the standard prediction-market models, which assume relatively homogeneous participants who differ only in their beliefs and wealth. We show that risk-lovers have particularly strong distortionary effects on market outcomes even when beliefs are symmetrically distributed around the truth. Simulations of a model which allows traders to have different motives and tastes for risk indicate that including such traders produce the market outcomes we observe, such as herding, persistent contrariness, a skewed profits' distribution and favorite-long-shot bias. The attraction of such markets to risk-lovers means that caution must be exercised when using prediction-market prices for forecasting.
Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman
Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Download or read book Studies in Intelligence written by and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 100 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets by : Donald B. Hausch
Download or read book Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets written by Donald B. Hausch and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-08-11 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Its basic empirical research and investigation of pure theories of investment in the sports and lottery markets make this volume a winner. These markets are simpler to study than traditional financial markets, and their expected values and outcomes are uncomplicated. By means of new overviews of scholarship on the industry side of racetrack and other betting markets to betting exchanges and market efficiencies, contributors consider a variety of sports in countries around the world. The result is not only superior information about market forecasting, but macro- and micro-analyses that are relevant to other markets. Easily studied sports markets reveal features relevant for more complex traditional financial markets Significant coverage of sports from racing to jai alai New studies of betting exchanges and Internet wagering markets
Book Synopsis Machine Learning in Finance by : Matthew F. Dixon
Download or read book Machine Learning in Finance written by Matthew F. Dixon and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-07-01 with total page 565 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces machine learning methods in finance. It presents a unified treatment of machine learning and various statistical and computational disciplines in quantitative finance, such as financial econometrics and discrete time stochastic control, with an emphasis on how theory and hypothesis tests inform the choice of algorithm for financial data modeling and decision making. With the trend towards increasing computational resources and larger datasets, machine learning has grown into an important skillset for the finance industry. This book is written for advanced graduate students and academics in financial econometrics, mathematical finance and applied statistics, in addition to quants and data scientists in the field of quantitative finance. Machine Learning in Finance: From Theory to Practice is divided into three parts, each part covering theory and applications. The first presents supervised learning for cross-sectional data from both a Bayesian and frequentist perspective. The more advanced material places a firm emphasis on neural networks, including deep learning, as well as Gaussian processes, with examples in investment management and derivative modeling. The second part presents supervised learning for time series data, arguably the most common data type used in finance with examples in trading, stochastic volatility and fixed income modeling. Finally, the third part presents reinforcement learning and its applications in trading, investment and wealth management. Python code examples are provided to support the readers' understanding of the methodologies and applications. The book also includes more than 80 mathematical and programming exercises, with worked solutions available to instructors. As a bridge to research in this emergent field, the final chapter presents the frontiers of machine learning in finance from a researcher's perspective, highlighting how many well-known concepts in statistical physics are likely to emerge as important methodologies for machine learning in finance.
Book Synopsis Futures Markets by : Sunil K. Parameswaran
Download or read book Futures Markets written by Sunil K. Parameswaran and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 345 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction by : Stephen J. Taylor
Download or read book Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction written by Stephen J. Taylor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-11 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions. Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions. Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.
Book Synopsis Prediction, Learning, and Games by : Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi
Download or read book Prediction, Learning, and Games written by Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-03-13 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.
Download or read book Quantum Trading written by Fabio Oreste and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-06-24 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A cutting-edge guide to quantum trading Original and thought-provoking, Quantum Trading presents a compelling new way to look at technical analysis and will help you use the proven principles of modern physics to forecast financial markets. In it, author Fabio Oreste shows how both the theory of relativity and quantum physics is required to makes sense of price behavior and forecast intermediate and long-term tops and bottoms. He relates his work to that of legendary trader W.D. Gann and reveals how Gann's somewhat esoteric theories are consistent with his applications of Einstein's theory of relativity and quantum theory to price behavior. Applies concepts from modern science to financial market forecasting Shows how to generate support/resistance areas and identify potential market turning points Addresses how non-linear approaches to trading can be used to both understand and forecast market prices While no trading approach is perfect, the techniques found within these pages have enabled the author to achieve a very attractive annual return since 2002. See what his insights can do for you.
