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Predicting Risk
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Book Synopsis Financial Risk Forecasting by : Jon Danielsson
Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Book Synopsis Risk Assessment and Evaluation of Predictions by : Mei-Ling Ting Lee
Download or read book Risk Assessment and Evaluation of Predictions written by Mei-Ling Ting Lee and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-11 with total page 446 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Methods of risk analysis and the outcome of particular evaluations and predictions are covered in detail in this proceedings volume, whose contributions are based on invited presentations from Professor Mei-Ling Ting Lee's 2011 symposium on Risk Analysis and the Evaluation of Predictions. This symposium was held at the University of Maryland in October of 2011. Risk analysis is the science of evaluating health, environmental, and engineering risks resulting from past, current, or anticipated, future activities. The use of these evaluations include to provide information for determining regulatory actions to limit risk, present scientific evidence in legal settings, evaluate products and potential liabilities within private organizations, resolve World Trade disputes amongst nations, and educate the public concerning particular risk issues. Risk analysis is an interdisciplinary science that relies on epidemiology and laboratory studies, collection of exposure and other field data, computer modeling, and related social, economic and communication considerations. In addition, social dimensions of risk are addressed by social scientists.
Book Synopsis Clinical Prediction Models by : Ewout W. Steyerberg
Download or read book Clinical Prediction Models written by Ewout W. Steyerberg and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-07-22 with total page 558 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The second edition of this volume provides insight and practical illustrations on how modern statistical concepts and regression methods can be applied in medical prediction problems, including diagnostic and prognostic outcomes. Many advances have been made in statistical approaches towards outcome prediction, but a sensible strategy is needed for model development, validation, and updating, such that prediction models can better support medical practice. There is an increasing need for personalized evidence-based medicine that uses an individualized approach to medical decision-making. In this Big Data era, there is expanded access to large volumes of routinely collected data and an increased number of applications for prediction models, such as targeted early detection of disease and individualized approaches to diagnostic testing and treatment. Clinical Prediction Models presents a practical checklist that needs to be considered for development of a valid prediction model. Steps include preliminary considerations such as dealing with missing values; coding of predictors; selection of main effects and interactions for a multivariable model; estimation of model parameters with shrinkage methods and incorporation of external data; evaluation of performance and usefulness; internal validation; and presentation formatting. The text also addresses common issues that make prediction models suboptimal, such as small sample sizes, exaggerated claims, and poor generalizability. The text is primarily intended for clinical epidemiologists and biostatisticians. Including many case studies and publicly available R code and data sets, the book is also appropriate as a textbook for a graduate course on predictive modeling in diagnosis and prognosis. While practical in nature, the book also provides a philosophical perspective on data analysis in medicine that goes beyond predictive modeling. Updates to this new and expanded edition include: • A discussion of Big Data and its implications for the design of prediction models • Machine learning issues • More simulations with missing ‘y’ values • Extended discussion on between-cohort heterogeneity • Description of ShinyApp • Updated LASSO illustration • New case studies
Book Synopsis Supply Chain Risk by : George A. Zsidisin
Download or read book Supply Chain Risk written by George A. Zsidisin and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2008-09-08 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risk is of fundamental importance in this era of the global economy. Supply chains must into account the uncertainty of demand. Moreover, the risk of uncertain demand can cut two ways: (1) there is the risk that unexpected demand will not be met on time, and the reverse problem (2) the risk that demand is over estimated and excessive inventory costs are incurred. There are other risks in unreliable vendors, delayed shipments, natural disasters, etc. In short, there are a host of strategic, tactical and operational risks to business supply chains. Supply Chain Risk: A Handbook of Assessment, Management, and Performance will focus on how to assess, evaluate, and control these various risks.
Book Synopsis The Wiley Handbook of What Works in Violence Risk Management by : J. Stephen Wormith
Download or read book The Wiley Handbook of What Works in Violence Risk Management written by J. Stephen Wormith and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2020-02-10 with total page 608 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive guide to the theory, research and practice of violence risk management The Wiley Handbook of What Works in Violence Risk Management: Theory, Research and Practice offers a comprehensive guide to the theory, research and practice of violence risk management. With contributions from a panel of noted international experts, the book explores the most recent advances to the theoretical understanding, assessment and management of violent behavior. Designed to be an accessible resource, the highly readable chapters address common issues associated with violent behavior such as alcohol misuse and the less common issues for example offenders with intellectual disabilities. Written for both those new to the field and professionals with years of experience, the book offers a wide-ranging review of who commit acts of violence, their prevalence in society and the most recent explanations for their behavior. The contributors explore various assessment approaches and highlight specialized risk assessment instruments. The Handbook provides the latest evidence on effective treatment and risk management and includes a number of well-established and effective treatment interventions for violent offenders. This important book: Contains an authoritative and comprehensive guide to the topic Includes contributions from an international panel of experts Offers information on violence risk formulation Reveals the most recent techniques in violence risk assessment Explains what works in violence intervention Reviews specialty clinical assessments Written for clinicians and other professionals in the field of violence prevention and assessment, The Wiley Handbook of What Works in Violence Risk Management is unique in its approach because it offers a comprehensive review of the topic rather than like other books on the market that take a narrower view.
Book Synopsis Predicting High-Risk Individuals for Common Diseases Using Multi-Omics and Epidemiological Data by : Lu Zhang
Download or read book Predicting High-Risk Individuals for Common Diseases Using Multi-Omics and Epidemiological Data written by Lu Zhang and published by Frontiers Media SA. This book was released on 2021-10-01 with total page 198 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Risk Assessment written by Bryony Moore and published by Whiting & Birch Limited. This book was released on 1996 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Handbook is aimed at any professional whose work involves predicting the behaviour of others-eg probation, social work, residential care and health and nursing staff. Contents include: basic principles . bias in decision-making . individual risk and external factors (applied risk) . definition of target behaviour, probability v. cost of recurrence, motivation to repeat behaviour, controls and disinhibitors, insights into past offending
Book Synopsis Occupational Risk Control by : Derek Viner
Download or read book Occupational Risk Control written by Derek Viner and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-03-03 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Occupational Risk Control contains a practical theory of risk based on the principles of the physical sciences. The book provides details of the implications of such theory for real-world practice that will be of value to the legislator, general or specialist risk engineer, scientist, academic, student, risk/safety practitioners as well as managers of industrial or commercial undertakings. The contents are a result of over 40 years of experience in researching, teaching and consulting. The theoretical base is relevant peer-reviewed physical sciences literature. Such literature points out the necessity of understanding the principles that enable processes resulting in damage and loss to be explained and it enables the risk arising from the uncertainty of these processes to be objectively defined, described as well as estimated using real number values. Of these principles and their applications a student once remarked “this should be compulsory study for all engineering students”. A critical assessment of the pervasive but unscientific accident terminology is included to assist the reader to reflect on the value of this. In a field in which there is a plethora of commercial and pseudo-academic practical tools based on accident theory, this text provides a foundation for the thinking academic and practitioner to critically evaluate the meaning, scope and value of such tools. The text has chapters on accident theory, damage process models, risk, risk estimation, risk control, risk evaluation, the classification and analysis of risks, risk numeracy, the management of risks in general and the management of technical risks in particular. There are notes on accident investigation and the role of the risk adviser. A substantial glossary of terms is included. The text is supported by a dedicated web site (www.derekviner.com) which contains discussion and examples of topics as well as a blog.
Book Synopsis Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science by : Pieter Kubben
Download or read book Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science written by Pieter Kubben and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-12-21 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book comprehensively covers the fundamentals of clinical data science, focusing on data collection, modelling and clinical applications. Topics covered in the first section on data collection include: data sources, data at scale (big data), data stewardship (FAIR data) and related privacy concerns. Aspects of predictive modelling using techniques such as classification, regression or clustering, and prediction model validation will be covered in the second section. The third section covers aspects of (mobile) clinical decision support systems, operational excellence and value-based healthcare. Fundamentals of Clinical Data Science is an essential resource for healthcare professionals and IT consultants intending to develop and refine their skills in personalized medicine, using solutions based on large datasets from electronic health records or telemonitoring programmes. The book’s promise is “no math, no code”and will explain the topics in a style that is optimized for a healthcare audience.
Book Synopsis Risk Terrain Modeling by : Joel M. Caplan
Download or read book Risk Terrain Modeling written by Joel M. Caplan and published by Univ of California Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Imagine using an evidence-based risk management model that enables researchers and practitioners alike to analyze the spatial dynamics of crime, allocate resources, and implement custom crime and risk reduction strategies that are transparent, measurable, and effective. Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM) diagnoses the spatial attractors of criminal behavior and makes accurate forecasts of where crime will occur at the microlevel. RTM informs decisions about how the combined factors that contribute to criminal behavior can be targeted, connections to crime can be monitored, spatial vulnerabilities can be assessed, and actions can be taken to reduce worst effects. As a diagnostic method, RTM offers a statistically valid way to identify vulnerable places. To learn more, visit http://www.riskterrainmodeling.com and begin using RTM with the many free tutorials and resources.
Book Synopsis Regression Modeling Strategies by : Frank E. Harrell
Download or read book Regression Modeling Strategies written by Frank E. Harrell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 583 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many texts are excellent sources of knowledge about individual statistical tools, but the art of data analysis is about choosing and using multiple tools. Instead of presenting isolated techniques, this text emphasizes problem solving strategies that address the many issues arising when developing multivariable models using real data and not standard textbook examples. It includes imputation methods for dealing with missing data effectively, methods for dealing with nonlinear relationships and for making the estimation of transformations a formal part of the modeling process, methods for dealing with "too many variables to analyze and not enough observations," and powerful model validation techniques based on the bootstrap. This text realistically deals with model uncertainty and its effects on inference to achieve "safe data mining".
Book Synopsis PHCRIS Policy Issue Review by : Jodie Oliver-Baxter
Download or read book PHCRIS Policy Issue Review written by Jodie Oliver-Baxter and published by . This book was released on 2015-05-31 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Model for Predicting Risk in Proposed Research and Development Tasks by : Robert Distler Doering
Download or read book A Model for Predicting Risk in Proposed Research and Development Tasks written by Robert Distler Doering and published by . This book was released on 1968 with total page 462 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Scoring and Predicting Risk Preferences by : Gurdal Ertek
Download or read book Scoring and Predicting Risk Preferences written by Gurdal Ertek and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study presents a methodology to determine risk scores of individuals, for a given financial risk preference survey. To this end, we use a regression based iterative algorithm to determine the weights for survey questions in the scoring process. Next, we generate classification models to classify individuals into risk-averse and risk-seeking categories, using a subset of survey questions. We illustrate the methodology through a sample survey with 656 respondents.We find that the demographic (indirect) questions can be almost as successful as risk-related (direct) questions in predicting risk preference classes of respondents. Using a decision-tree based classification model, we discuss how one can generate actionable business rules based on the findings.
Book Synopsis Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by : National Research Council
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Book Synopsis Criminal Justice Forecasts of Risk by : Richard Berk
Download or read book Criminal Justice Forecasts of Risk written by Richard Berk and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-04-06 with total page 121 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Machine learning and nonparametric function estimation procedures can be effectively used in forecasting. One important and current application is used to make forecasts of “future dangerousness" to inform criminal justice decision. Examples include the decision to release an individual on parole, determination of the parole conditions, bail recommendations, and sentencing. Since the 1920s, "risk assessments" of various kinds have been used in parole hearings, but the current availability of large administrative data bases, inexpensive computing power, and developments in statistics and computer science have increased their accuracy and applicability. In this book, these developments are considered with particular emphasis on the statistical and computer science tools, under the rubric of supervised learning, that can dramatically improve these kinds of forecasts in criminal justice settings. The intended audience is researchers in the social sciences and data analysts in criminal justice agencies.
Book Synopsis Cardiovascular Care by : Louise Quinn
Download or read book Cardiovascular Care written by Louise Quinn and published by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. This book was released on 2007-06-25 with total page 516 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This quick-reference handbook presents the principles and practices of cardiovascular care in a clear, concise, easy-to-follow bulleted format enhanced by abundant illustrations and tables. Recurring icons include Red Flag, Age Aware, Discharge Teaching, and Up Close. The book also includes an extensive list of important selected references.
