Predicting Human Decision Making

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Predicting Human Decision-Making

Author : Ariel Geib
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031015789
Total Pages : 134 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)

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Book Synopsis Predicting Human Decision-Making by : Ariel Geib

Download or read book Predicting Human Decision-Making written by Ariel Geib and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-05-31 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Human decision-making often transcends our formal models of "rationality." Designing intelligent agents that interact proficiently with people necessitates the modeling of human behavior and the prediction of their decisions. In this book, we explore the task of automatically predicting human decision-making and its use in designing intelligent human-aware automated computer systems of varying natures—from purely conflicting interaction settings (e.g., security and games) to fully cooperative interaction settings (e.g., autonomous driving and personal robotic assistants). We explore the techniques, algorithms, and empirical methodologies for meeting the challenges that arise from the above tasks and illustrate major benefits from the use of these computational solutions in real-world application domains such as security, negotiations, argumentative interactions, voting systems, autonomous driving, and games. The book presents both the traditional and classical methods as well as the most recent and cutting edge advances, providing the reader with a panorama of the challenges and solutions in predicting human decision-making.

Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior

Author : Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309523893
Total Pages : 411 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (95 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior by : Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations

Download or read book Modeling Human and Organizational Behavior written by Panel on Modeling Human Behavior and Command Decision Making: Representations for Military Simulations and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1998-08-14 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Simulations are widely used in the military for training personnel, analyzing proposed equipment, and rehearsing missions, and these simulations need realistic models of human behavior. This book draws together a wide variety of theoretical and applied research in human behavior modeling that can be considered for use in those simulations. It covers behavior at the individual, unit, and command level. At the individual soldier level, the topics covered include attention, learning, memory, decisionmaking, perception, situation awareness, and planning. At the unit level, the focus is on command and control. The book provides short-, medium-, and long-term goals for research and development of more realistic models of human behavior.

Prediction

Author : Daniel R. Sarewitz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Prediction by : Daniel R. Sarewitz

Download or read book Prediction written by Daniel R. Sarewitz and published by . This book was released on 2000-04 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based upon ten case studies, Prediction explores how science-based predictions guide policy making and what this means in terms of global warming, biogenetically modifying organisms and polluting the environment with chemicals.

Thinking and Reasoning in Human Decision Making

Author : Peter A. Facione
Publisher : Insight Assessment
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 236 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking and Reasoning in Human Decision Making by : Peter A. Facione

Download or read book Thinking and Reasoning in Human Decision Making written by Peter A. Facione and published by Insight Assessment. This book was released on 2007 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

An Evaluation of Models of Human Decision Making and Their Implications for Predicting Leisure Choice Behaviour

Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780858310551
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis An Evaluation of Models of Human Decision Making and Their Implications for Predicting Leisure Choice Behaviour by :

Download or read book An Evaluation of Models of Human Decision Making and Their Implications for Predicting Leisure Choice Behaviour written by and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

COVID-19: Prediction, Decision-Making, and its Impacts

Author : K.C. Santosh
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9789811596810
Total Pages : 137 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (968 download)

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Book Synopsis COVID-19: Prediction, Decision-Making, and its Impacts by : K.C. Santosh

Download or read book COVID-19: Prediction, Decision-Making, and its Impacts written by K.C. Santosh and published by Springer. This book was released on 2020-12-12 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book outlines artificial intelligence for COVID-19 issues that are ranging from prediction to decision-making for healthcare support in human lives. Starting with major COVID-19 issues and challenges, it takes possible AI-based solutions for multiple problems, such as early prediction, its role for public health, detection of positive cases, drug analysis, and healthcare support. It mainly employs publicly available data (population) to predict who should be tested for COVID-19, for example, radiological image data to detect COVID-19 positive cases from other similar and/or different manifestations, such as pneumonia, distributed healthcare support, and supply chains in the middle of COVID-19 pandemic. The book includes recently developed AI-driven tools and techniques, such as pattern recognition, anomaly detection, machine learning, and data analytics. It covers a wide range of audience from computer science and engineering to healthcare professionals.

Superforecasting

Author : Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher : Crown
ISBN 13 : 080413670X
Total Pages : 352 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (41 download)

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Book Synopsis Superforecasting by : Philip E. Tetlock

Download or read book Superforecasting written by Philip E. Tetlock and published by Crown. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 352 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Behavioral Decision Theory

Author : Kazuhisa Takemura
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811654530
Total Pages : 389 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (116 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Decision Theory by : Kazuhisa Takemura

Download or read book Behavioral Decision Theory written by Kazuhisa Takemura and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-09-29 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the second edition of Behavioral Decision Theory, published in 2014. The main approach and structure of this book have been retained in the new edition. However, this second edition provides a fresh overview of the idea of behavioral decision theory and related research findings such as theoretical and empirical discoveries of preference formation, time discounting, social interaction, and social decision making. The book covers a wide range from classical to relatively recent major studies concerning behavioral decision theory, which, in brief, is a general term for descriptive theories to explain the psychological knowledge related to people’s decision-making behavior. It is called a theory but is actually a combination of various psychological theories, for which no axiomatic systems—such as those associated with the utility theory widely used in economics—have been established. The utility theory is often limited to qualitative knowledge; however, as the studies of Nobel laureates H. A. Simon, D. Kahneman, and R. Thaler have suggested, the psychological methodology and knowledge of behavioral decision theory have been applied widely in such fields as economics, business administration, and engineering and are expected to become even more useful in the future. Research into people’s decision making represents an important part in those fields, various aspects of which overlap with the scope of behavioral decision theory. This theory is closely related to behavioral economics and behavioral finance, which have come into greater use in recent years. This book will appeal especially to graduate students, advanced undergraduate students, and researchers who are interested in decision-making phenomena.

Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making

Author : D. Wendt
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9401018340
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making by : D. Wendt

Download or read book Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making written by D. Wendt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Human decision making involves problems which are being studied with increasing interest and sophistication. They range from controversial political decisions via individual consumer decisions to such simple tasks as signal discriminations. Although it would seem that decisions have to do with choices among available actions of any kind, there is general agreement that decision making research should pertain to choice prob lems which cannot be solved without a predecisional stage of finding choice alternatives, weighing evidence, and judging values. The ultimate objective of scientific research on decision making is two-fold: (a) to develop a theoretically sound technology for the optimal solution of decision problems, and (b) to formulate a descriptive theory of human decision making. The latter may, in tum, protect decision makers from being caught in the traps of their own limitations and biases. Recently, in decision making research the strong emphasis on well defined laboratory tasks is decreasing in favour of more realistic studies in various practical settings. This may well have been caused by a growing awareness of the fact that decision-behaviour is strongly determined by situational factors, which makes it necessary to look into processes of interaction between the decision maker and the relevant task environ ment. Almost inevitably there is a parallel shift of interest towards problems of utility measurement and the evaluation of consequences.

COVID-19: Prediction, Decision-Making, and its Impacts

Author : K.C. Santosh
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811596824
Total Pages : 137 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (115 download)

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Book Synopsis COVID-19: Prediction, Decision-Making, and its Impacts by : K.C. Santosh

Download or read book COVID-19: Prediction, Decision-Making, and its Impacts written by K.C. Santosh and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-12-11 with total page 137 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The book aims to outline the issues of AI and COVID-19, involving predictions,medical support decision-making, and possible impact on human life. Starting withmajor COVID-19 issues and challenges, it takes possible AI-based solutions forseveral problems, such as public health surveillance, early (epidemic) prediction,COVID-19 positive case detection, and robotics integration against COVID-19.Beside mathematical modeling, it includes the necessity of changes in innovationsand possible COVID-19 impacts. The book covers a clear understanding of AI-driven tools and techniques, where pattern recognition, anomaly detection, machinelearning, and data analytics are considered. It aims to include the wide range ofaudiences from computer science and engineering to healthcare professionals.

Decision Making

Author : Rob Ranyard
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 9780415158183
Total Pages : 282 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (581 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Making by : Rob Ranyard

Download or read book Decision Making written by Rob Ranyard and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 1997 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers an exciting new collection of recent research on the actual processes that humans use when making decisions in their everyday lives and in business situations. The contributors use cognitive psychological techniques to break down the constituent processes and set them in their social context. The contributors are from many different countries and draw upon a wide range of techniques, making this book a valuable resource to cognitive psychologists in applied settings, economists and managers.

After the Digital Tornado

Author : Kevin Werbach
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108645259
Total Pages : 251 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (86 download)

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Book Synopsis After the Digital Tornado by : Kevin Werbach

Download or read book After the Digital Tornado written by Kevin Werbach and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2020-07-23 with total page 251 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Networks powered by algorithms are pervasive. Major contemporary technology trends - Internet of Things, Big Data, Digital Platform Power, Blockchain, and the Algorithmic Society - are manifestations of this phenomenon. The internet, which once seemed an unambiguous benefit to society, is now the basis for invasions of privacy, massive concentrations of power, and wide-scale manipulation. The algorithmic networked world poses deep questions about power, freedom, fairness, and human agency. The influential 1997 Federal Communications Commission whitepaper “Digital Tornado” hailed the “endless spiral of connectivity” that would transform society, and today, little remains untouched by digital connectivity. Yet fundamental questions remain unresolved, and even more serious challenges have emerged. This important collection, which offers a reckoning and a foretelling, features leading technology scholars who explain the legal, business, ethical, technical, and public policy challenges of building pervasive networks and algorithms for the benefit of humanity. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.

Thinking

Author : John Brockman
Publisher : Harper Collins
ISBN 13 : 0062258567
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (622 download)

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Book Synopsis Thinking by : John Brockman

Download or read book Thinking written by John Brockman and published by Harper Collins. This book was released on 2013-10-29 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Unlock your mind. From the bestselling authors of Thinking, Fast and Slow; The Black Swan; and Stumbling on Happiness comes a cutting-edge exploration of the mysteries of rational thought, decision-making, intuition, morality, willpower, problem-solving, prediction, forecasting, unconscious behavior, and beyond. Edited by John Brockman, publisher of Edge.org ("The world's smartest website"—The Guardian), Thinking presents original ideas by today's leading psychologists, neuroscientists, and philosophers who are radically expanding our understanding of human thought. Contributors include: Daniel Kahneman on the power (and pitfalls) of human intuition and "unconscious" thinking Daniel Gilbert on desire, prediction, and why getting what we want doesn't always make us happy Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the limitations of statistics in guiding decision-making Vilayanur Ramachandran on the scientific underpinnings of human nature Simon Baron-Cohen on the startling effects of testosterone on the brain Daniel C. Dennett on decoding the architecture of the "normal" human mind Sarah-Jayne Blakemore on mental disorders and the crucial developmental phase of adolescence Jonathan Haidt, Sam Harris, and Roy Baumeister on the science of morality, ethics, and the emerging synthesis of evolutionary and biological thinking Gerd Gigerenzer on rationality and what informs our choices

Artificial Intelligence and Knowledge Processing

Author : Hemachandran K
Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000934624
Total Pages : 372 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Artificial Intelligence and Knowledge Processing by : Hemachandran K

Download or read book Artificial Intelligence and Knowledge Processing written by Hemachandran K and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2023-09-06 with total page 372 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Artificial Intelligence and Knowledge Processing play a vital role in various automation industries and their functioning in converting traditional industries to AI-based factories. This book acts as a guide and blends the basics of Artificial Intelligence in various domains, which include Machine Learning, Deep Learning, Artificial Neural Networks, and Expert Systems, and extends their application in all sectors. Artificial Intelligence and Knowledge Processing: Improved Decision-Making and Prediction, discusses the designing of new AI algorithms used to convert general applications to AI-based applications. It highlights different Machine Learning and Deep Learning models for various applications used in healthcare and wellness, agriculture, and automobiles. The book offers an overview of the rapidly growing and developing field of AI applications, along with Knowledge of Engineering, and Business Analytics. Real-time case studies are included across several different fields such as Image Processing, Text Mining, Healthcare, Finance, Digital Marketing, and HR Analytics. The book also introduces a statistical background and probabilistic framework to enhance the understanding of continuous distributions. Topics such as Ensemble Models, Deep Learning Models, Artificial Neural Networks, Expert Systems, and Decision-Based Systems round out the offerings of this book. This multi-contributed book is a valuable source for researchers, academics, technologists, industrialists, practitioners, and all those who wish to explore the applications of AI, Knowledge Processing, Deep Learning, and Machine Learning.

Human Judgment and Decision Processes in Applied Settings

Author : Martin F. Kaplan
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 1483261107
Total Pages : 300 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (832 download)

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Book Synopsis Human Judgment and Decision Processes in Applied Settings by : Martin F. Kaplan

Download or read book Human Judgment and Decision Processes in Applied Settings written by Martin F. Kaplan and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2013-10-22 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Human Judgment and Decision Processes in Applied Settings is the second to two volumes that attempt to define the areas of progress in the understanding of human decision making processes. The first volume, Human Judgment and Decision Processes (Academic Press, 1975) was concerned with formal and mathematical approaches to the problems of judgment and decision making. The major theoretical orientations (information integration theory, signal detection theory, portfolio theory, and multiattribute-utility measurement) were presented and their rationales discussed. The present volume is concerned with the application of these theories, and the various techniques derived from them, to the problems of decision making in the everyday world. The chapters reflect the many modifications and adjustments that must be made to mathematical rules in order to apply decision theory models in the real world. The tools described serve a broad variety of interests: those of the urban health or social planner, the organizational manager, the researcher, the educator, and, in fact, all of those who must weight evidence to reach decisions. Planner, manager, researcher, teacher, policymaker—all will find assistance in overcoming the commonly encountered roadblocks when one must choose between alternatives in what remains an uncertain world.

Noise

Author : Daniel Kahneman
Publisher : Little, Brown
ISBN 13 : 031645138X
Total Pages : 429 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (164 download)

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Book Synopsis Noise by : Daniel Kahneman

Download or read book Noise written by Daniel Kahneman and published by Little, Brown. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 429 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the Nobel Prize-winning author of Thinking, Fast and Slow and the coauthor of Nudge, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments and how to make better ones—"a tour de force” (New York Times). Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients—or that two judges in the same courthouse give markedly different sentences to people who have committed the same crime. Suppose that different interviewers at the same firm make different decisions about indistinguishable job applicants—or that when a company is handling customer complaints, the resolution depends on who happens to answer the phone. Now imagine that the same doctor, the same judge, the same interviewer, or the same customer service agent makes different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday. These are examples of noise: variability in judgments that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, and Cass R. Sunstein show the detrimental effects of noise in many fields, including medicine, law, economic forecasting, forensic science, bail, child protection, strategy, performance reviews, and personnel selection. Wherever there is judgment, there is noise. Yet, most of the time, individuals and organizations alike are unaware of it. They neglect noise. With a few simple remedies, people can reduce both noise and bias, and so make far better decisions. Packed with original ideas, and offering the same kinds of research-based insights that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge groundbreaking New York Times bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise in judgment—and what we can do about it.

Decision Science: A Human-Oriented Perspective

Author : George Mengov
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3662471221
Total Pages : 160 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (624 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Science: A Human-Oriented Perspective by : George Mengov

Download or read book Decision Science: A Human-Oriented Perspective written by George Mengov and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-05-15 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers a new perspective on human decision-making by comparing the established methods in decision science with innovative modelling at the level of neurons and neural interactions. The book presents a new generation of computer models, which can predict with astonishing accuracy individual economic choices when people make them by quick intuition rather than by effort. A vision for a new kind of social science is outlined, whereby neural models of emotion and cognition capture the dynamics of socioeconomic systems and virtual social networks. The exposition is approachable by experts as well as by advanced students. The author is an Associate Professor of Decision Science with a doctorate in Computational Neuroscience, and a former software consultant to banks in the City of London.