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Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Potential Output Growth Accelerates Over the Long Term written by and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Edward Denison
Publisher : Brookings Institution Press
ISBN 13 : 9780815719755
Total Pages : 172 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (197 download)
Download or read book Trends in American Economic Growth written by Edward Denison and published by Brookings Institution Press. This book was released on 2011-10-01 with total page 172 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The growth rate of national income has fluctuated widely in the United States since 1929. In this volume, Edward F. Denison uses the growth accounting methodology he pioneered and refined in earlier studies to track changes in the trend of output and its determinants. At every step he systematically distinguishes changes in the economy’s ability to produce—as measured by his series on potential national income—from changes in the ratio of actual output to potential output. Using data for earlier years as a backdrop, Denison focuses on the dramatic decline in the growth of potential national income that started in 1974 and was further accentuated beginning in 1980, and on the pronounced decline from business cycle to business cycle in the average ratio of actual to potential output, a slide under way since 1969. The decline in growth rates has been especially pronounced in national income per person employed and other productivity measures as growth of total output has slowed despite a sharp acceleration in growth of employment and total hours at work. Denison organizes his discussion around eight table that divide 1929-82 into three long periods (the last, 1973-82) and seven shorter periods (the most recent, 1973-79 and 1979-82). These tables provide estimates of the sources of growth for eight output measures in each period. Denison stresses that the 1973-82 period of slow growth in unfinished. He observes no improvement in the productivity trend, only a weak cyclical recovery from a 1982 low. Sources-of-growth tables isolate the contributions made to growth between “input” and “output per unit of input.” Even so, it is not possible to quantify separately the contribution of all determinants, and Denison evaluates qualitatively the effects of other developments on the productivity slowdown.
Author : Patrick Blagrave
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475565135
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book A Simple Multivariate Filter for Estimating Potential Output written by Patrick Blagrave and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-07 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output are an important ingredient of structured forecasting and policy analysis. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Benes and others (2010). Although the estimates in real time are more robust relative to those of naïve statistical filters, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates. The paper presents estimates for 16 countries and provides an example of how the filtered estimates at the end of the sample period can be improved with additional information.
Author : Sheetal K. Chand
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451856695
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Nominal Income and the Inflation-Growth Divide written by Sheetal K. Chand and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-11-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper deals with aggregate demand fluctuations and their price and output effects. Starting with a nominal income solution, a rule for determining the inflation and output growth effects is presented. Assigning alternative values to the key parameters of the suggested rule generates different closure rules, such as the classical and the Keynesian and their modern counterparts. An application to major industrial country data indicates that the suggested rule is robust. Both inflation and output growth are affected by nominal shocks, but response patterns vary among the countries.
Author : Roger Brinner
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (512 download)
Download or read book Technology, Labor, and Economic Potential written by Roger Brinner and published by . This book was released on 1978 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : George A. Kahn
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book New Estimates of the U.S. Economy's Potential Growth Rate written by George A. Kahn and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using an Okun's law framework, the analysis here estimates potential growth for the 1990s as measured by both fixed- and chain-weighted GDP. It then decomposes estimated potential growth rates into labor productivity growth (LPG) and labor input growth (LIG) using a regression analysis to separate secular from cyclical changes. It compares estimates of potential output and trend productivity growth for the 1990s with estimates from earlier periods. Results indicate that eliminating the substitution bias associated with fixed-weight measures of real GDP raises estimated potential GDP growth in the 1980s but lowers it in the 1990s. A slowdown in labor force growth, with little or no change in long-term productivity growth, largely accounts for the implied slowdown in potential growth.
Author : Sebastian Hauptmeier
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3790821772
Total Pages : 201 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (98 download)
Download or read book Projecting Potential Output written by Sebastian Hauptmeier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-04-20 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.
Author : Kieran McMorrow
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 148 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Potential Output written by Kieran McMorrow and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 148 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recoge: Introductory remarks - Section 1: Measurement of potential output: Statistical V economic approaches - Section 2: Potential output and output gap estimates for EU15 and US: HP filter production function approaches - Section 3: "New" Economy effects on potential growth: Comparison of US and EU15 performances - Secction 4: EU15 and US potential growth scnarios for the period 2001-2010 - Annexes.
Author : Jakub Growiec
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3031071956
Total Pages : 181 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Accelerating Economic Growth written by Jakub Growiec and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2022-09-07 with total page 181 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What made it possible for the human species to conquer the world, build a global digital economy, and still want more? What drives technological progress and economic growth in the long run and on a global scale? And how will technological progress, economic growth, and the overall prosperity of human civilization unfold in the future? This book sheds new light on these big questions by incorporating findings from physics, anthropology, psychology, history, philosophy, and computer science in a brand-new theory of economic growth. Looking back across the millennia, it identifies five major technological revolutions which have transformed humankind’s capacity to process energy and information—the cognitive, agricultural, scientific, industrial, and digital revolutions—and characterizes the new avenues of economic development which they have opened while also exponentially accelerating growth.
Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author : Klaus-Jürgen Gern
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783894562489
Total Pages : 21 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (624 download)
Download or read book Evidence of the New Economy at the Macroeconomic Level and Implications for Monetary Policy written by Klaus-Jürgen Gern and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : F. Gerard Adams
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134081170
Total Pages : 203 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (34 download)
Download or read book Accelerating Japan's Economic Growth written by F. Gerard Adams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2007-09-12 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents an up-to-date study of the current state and future of Japanese economic growth, arguing that an information and communications technology revolution could revive Japanese economic growth.
Author : Dale Weldeau Jorgenson
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262100946
Total Pages : 508 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (9 download)
Download or read book Econometrics: Economic growth in the information age written by Dale Weldeau Jorgenson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 508 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volumes 1 and 3 contain papers written or co-written by Jorgenson. Volume 2 is a collection of 13 revised and updated papers presented at a conference held on May 7-8, 1993 at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, to honor Jorgenson on the occasion of his 60th birthday.
Author : Debra E. Gerald
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 288 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book Federal Forecasters Conference, 2000 written by Debra E. Gerald and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 288 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Gabriel Di Bella
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484336828
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Optimism, Pessimism, and Short-Term Fluctuations written by Gabriel Di Bella and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-01-05 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic theory offers several explanations as to why shifting expectations about future economic activity affect current demand. Abstracting from whether changes in expectations originate from swings in beliefs or fundamentals, we test empirically whether more optimistic or pessimistic potential output forecasts trigger short-term fluctuations in private consumption and investment. Relying on a dataset of actual data and forecasts for 89 countries over the 1990-2022 period, we find that private economic agents learn from different sources of in- formation about future potential output growth, and adjust their current demand accordingly over the two years following the shock in expectations. To provide a theoretical foundation to the empirical analysis, we also propose a simple Keynesian model that highlights the role of expectations about long-term output in determining short-term economic activity.
Author : Min Zhu
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513515357
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book China’s Productivity Convergence and Growth Potential—A Stocktaking and Sectoral Approach written by Min Zhu and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-11-27 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: China’s growth potential has become a hotly debated topic as the economy has reached an income level susceptible to the “middle-income trap” and financial vulnerabilities are mounting after years of rapid credit expansion. However, the existing literature has largely focused on macro level aggregates, which are ill suited to understanding China’s significant structural transformation and its impact on economic growth. To fill the gap, this paper takes a deep dive into China’s convergence progress in 38 industrial sectors and 11 services sectors, examines past sectoral transitions, and predicts future shifts. We find that China’s productivity convergence remains at an early stage, with the industrial sector more advanced than services. Large variations exist among subsectors, with high-tech industrial sectors, in particular the ICT sector, lagging low-tech sectors. Going forward, ample room remains for further convergence, but the shrinking distance to the frontier, the structural shift from industry to services, and demographic changes will put sustained downward pressure on growth, which could slow to 5 percent by 2025 and 4 percent by 2030. Digitalization, SOE reform, and services sector opening up could be three major forces boosting future growth, while the risks of a financial crisis and a reversal in global integration in trade and technology could slow the pace of convergence.
Author :
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 9780821345504
Total Pages : 200 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (455 download)
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects and the Developing Countries written by and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2000 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As they enter the new millennium, developing countries are struggling to recover from one of their deepest recessions since World War II. 'Global Economic Prospects 2000' will improve your understanding and keep you informed of the forces shaping today's changing global economy.The report offers an in-depth analysis of the economic prospects of developing economies in the wake of the financial crisis and as they enter the new millennium. It examines the impact of the recent financial crisis on growth and poverty in the developing world and reviews economic output, trade, and financial developments in industrial economies. 'Global Economic Prospects 2000' focuses on three main issues: • how Sub-Saharan African commodity exporters and major developing country oil exporters have adjusted to the sharp swings in commodity prices since the mid-1990s; • the extent of corporate restructuring in East Asia and its role in their recovery; • the impact of the recent crisis on poverty in developing countries. As in past editions, detailed statistical tables and an analysis of developments for each of the developing country regions are included.'Global Economic Prospects 2000' provides essential information for anyone concerned with the economic developments affecting our shifting global economy.
