Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484367766
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy by : Ali Alichi

Download or read book Estimates of Potential Output and the Neutral Rate for the U.S. Economy written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-06 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output and the neutral short-term interest rate play important roles in policy making. However, such estimates are associated with significant uncertainty and subject to significant revisions. This paper extends the structural multivariate filter methodology by adding a monetary policy block, which allows estimating the neutral rate of interest for the U.S. economy. The addition of the monetary policy block further improves the reliability of the structural multivariate filter.

Potential Growth and Inflation

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)

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Book Synopsis Potential Growth and Inflation by : Mardi Dungey

Download or read book Potential Growth and Inflation written by Mardi Dungey and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimates of potential output growth for Australia, the United States and Canada are presented and analysed in this article. We define potential growth as that growth rate consistent with a steady (domestic component of the) inflation rate (SIRG). At around 4 per cent per annum, Australia's SIRG has been relatively stable for the past 30 years, which seems inconsistent with the view that wide-ranging microeconomic reform in the 1990s raised growth potential. However, we show that the reduction in employment growth in Australia from the 1980s to the 1990s may account for the absence of a rise in potential growth. In Canada and the United States the SIRGs are closer to 3 per cent, and we explore the reasons why potential growth estimates are higher for Australia than for North America. We also discuss why Australia's growth averaged less than its potential in the 1980s and 1990s and the possible use of our estimates for monetary policy purposes.

Inflation Expectations

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Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513523465
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States by : Ali Alichi

Download or read book A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States written by Ali Alichi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-30 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.

The Great Inflation

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Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226066959
Total Pages : 545 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (26 download)

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Book Synopsis The Great Inflation by : Michael D. Bordo

Download or read book The Great Inflation written by Michael D. Bordo and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2013-06-28 with total page 545 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources, thereby raising productivity. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and ’80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations, and which propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. In the decades since, the immediate cause of the period’s rise in inflation has been the subject of considerable debate. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Here, contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on the ways in which the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today’s global and increasingly complex economic environment.

IMF Staff Papers

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451956029
Total Pages : 229 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (519 download)

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Book Synopsis IMF Staff Papers by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book IMF Staff Papers written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1963-01-01 with total page 229 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses effects of inflation on economic development. A mild inflation may well encourage little, or no, evasion of the “inflation tax.” On the other hand, a strong inflation, and frequently a mild one also, will lead to community reactions which have effects like those of widespread tax evasion. A development policy may have wider aims than the encouragement of a high level of investment. Inflation has two effects on the desire for liquidity, which are related to the two basic reasons why individuals and businesses wish to hold liquid assets—the speculative and precautionary motives. Inflation increases the value of effective liquidity, thereby raising the community's desire for it, but it makes the most generally accepted store of liquidity unacceptable sources of protection. The control of inflation is only one of the problems facing a government wishing to encourage rapid economic development. The fight against illiteracy, the reform of bureaucratic practices, the building of basic sanitary facilities for the eradication of endemic diseases, the substitution of competitive for monopolistic trade practices, the encouragement of a widespread spirit of entrepreneurship, and the creation of an adequate amount of social capital, may be important prerequisites for rapid growth.

Exports, Inflation, and Growth

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451854137
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Exports, Inflation, and Growth by : Thorvaldur Gylfason

Download or read book Exports, Inflation, and Growth written by Thorvaldur Gylfason and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-09-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper identifies some of the main determinants of exports and economic growth in cross-sectional data from the World Bank, covering 160 countries in the period 1985-1994. First, the linkages between the propensity to export and population, per capita income, agriculture, primary exports, and inflation are studied by statistical methods. Then, the relationship between economic growth and some of the above-mentioned determinants of exports and investment are scrutinized the same way. The main conclusion is that, in the period under review, high inflation and an abundance of natural resources tended to be associated with low exports and slow growth.

World Economic Outlook, October 2020

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Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781513556055
Total Pages : 203 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (56 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2020 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

Growth, Inflation, and Potential Output

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 96 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Growth, Inflation, and Potential Output by : Zarina Zainal Abidin

Download or read book Growth, Inflation, and Potential Output written by Zarina Zainal Abidin and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 96 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Nominal Income and the Inflation-Growth Divide

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451856695
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Nominal Income and the Inflation-Growth Divide by : Sheetal K. Chand

Download or read book Nominal Income and the Inflation-Growth Divide written by Sheetal K. Chand and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-11-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper deals with aggregate demand fluctuations and their price and output effects. Starting with a nominal income solution, a rule for determining the inflation and output growth effects is presented. Assigning alternative values to the key parameters of the suggested rule generates different closure rules, such as the classical and the Keynesian and their modern counterparts. An application to major industrial country data indicates that the suggested rule is robust. Both inflation and output growth are affected by nominal shocks, but response patterns vary among the countries.

Inflation and Growth in China

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 9781557755421
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (554 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation and Growth in China by : Mr.Manuel Guitián

Download or read book Inflation and Growth in China written by Mr.Manuel Guitián and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-06-24 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The linkage between inflation and economic growth has been the subject of considerable interest and debate. The 18 papers included in this volume comprise the proceedings of a conference on inflation and growth in China that brought together academics, officials and IMF staff members. The papers edited by Manuel Guitián and Robert Mundell, examine issues in international exeperiences with inflation and growth, long-run and short-run structural problems related tgo growth and inflation in China, and the framework in which monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate policies are formulated in China.

Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps by : Cécile Denis

Download or read book Calculating Potential Growth Rates and Output Gaps written by Cécile Denis and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Any meaningful analysis of cyclical developments, of medium term growth prospects or of the stance of fiscal and monetary policies are all predicated on either an implicit or explicit assumption concerning the rate of potential output growth. Given the importance of the concept, the measurement of potential output is the subject of contentious and sustained research interest. All the available methods have "pros" and "cons" and none can unequivocally be declared better than the alternatives in all cases. Thus, what matters is to have a method adapted to the problem under analysis, with well defined limits and, in international comparisons, one that deals identically with all countries. This is the approach adopted in the present paper where it is stated clearly that the objective is to produce an economics based, production function, method which can be used for operational EU policy surveillance purposes.

Why Inflation Targeting?

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 145187233X
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Why Inflation Targeting? by : Charles Freedman

Download or read book Why Inflation Targeting? written by Charles Freedman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-04-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.

Australia

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 9781557757326
Total Pages : 174 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (573 download)

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Book Synopsis Australia by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book Australia written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-11-20 with total page 174 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Australia's recent economic performance has been impressive. It has experienced steady growth since the early 1990s and inflation has averaged just 2 percent over the same period. This strong showing marks a departure from the performance of the postwar years, when falling productivity and rising inflation caused Australia's per capita income to slip from one of the highest among OECD countries to merely average. This economic turnaround is explored in this book edited by Anoop Singh, Josh Felman, Ray Brooks, Tim Callen, and Christian Thimann of the Asia and Pacific Department.

The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability

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Publisher : University of Chicago Press
ISBN 13 : 0226241769
Total Pages : 374 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (262 download)

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Book Synopsis The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability by : Martin Feldstein

Download or read book The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 374 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent years, the Federal Reserve and central banks worldwide have enjoyed remarkable success in their battle against inflation. The challenge now confronting the Fed and its counterparts is how to proceed in this newly benign economic environment: Should monetary policy seek to maintain a rate of low-level inflation or eliminate inflation altogether in an effort to attain full price stability? In a seminal article published in 1997, Martin Feldstein developed a framework for calculating the gains in economic welfare that might result from a move from a low level of inflation to full price stability. The present volume extends that analysis, focusing on the likely costs and benefits of achieving price stability not only in the United States, but in Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom as well. The results show that even small changes in already low inflation rates can have a substantial impact on the economic performance of different countries, and that variations in national tax rules can affect the level of gain from disinflation.

World Economic Outlook, October 2019

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Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513516175
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2019 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-15 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.

Projecting Potential Output

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Author :
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3790821772
Total Pages : 201 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (98 download)

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Book Synopsis Projecting Potential Output by : Sebastian Hauptmeier

Download or read book Projecting Potential Output written by Sebastian Hauptmeier and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-04-20 with total page 201 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In spite of the widespread use of the concept of potential output in economic theory and empirical applications as well as in economic policy debates, the historical background and the assumptions inherent to this concept are rarely made transparent, let alone critically questioned. Against this background this book sets out to determine the extent to which the concept of potential output rests on clearly defined theoretical foundations and how far prevailing empirical quantification methods really provide reliable insights into potential output growth of an economy. In addition, the authors examine alternative methods for a forward-looking assessment of potential output growth.