Population Analysis And Projections

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State and Local Population Projections

Author : Stanley K. Smith
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0306473720
Total Pages : 433 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (64 download)

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Book Synopsis State and Local Population Projections by : Stanley K. Smith

Download or read book State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-12-21 with total page 433 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The initial plans for this book sprang from a late-afternoon conversation in a hotel bar. All three authors were attending the 1996 meeting of the Population As- ciation of America in New Orleans. While nursing drinks and expounding on a variety of topics, we began talking about our current research projects. It so happened that all three of us had been entertaining the notion of writing a book on state and local population projections. Recognizing the enormity of the project for a single author, we quickly decided to collaborate. Had we not decided to work together, it is unlikely that this book ever would have been written. The last comprehensive treatment of state and local population projections was Don Pittenger’s excellent work Projecting State and Local Populations (1976). Many changes affecting the production of population projections have occurred since that time. Technological changes have led to vast increases in computing power, new data sources, the development of GIS, and the creation of the Internet. The procedures for applying a number of projection methods have changed considerably, and several completely new methods have been developed.

A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections

Author : Stanley K. Smith
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400775512
Total Pages : 417 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections by : Stanley K. Smith

Download or read book A Practitioner's Guide to State and Local Population Projections written by Stanley K. Smith and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-12-16 with total page 417 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.

World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights

Author : United Nations Publications
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789211483161
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (831 download)

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Book Synopsis World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights by : United Nations Publications

Download or read book World Population Prospects 2019: Highlights written by United Nations Publications and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United Nations population estimates and projections form a comprehensive set of demographic data to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels. They are used in the calculation of many of the key development indicators commonly used by the United Nations system, including for more than one third of the indicators used to monitor progress towards the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. The 2019 revision of the World Population Prospects is the twenty-sixth edition of the official United Nations population estimates and projections, which have been prepared since 1951 by the Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The 2019 revision presents population estimates from 1950 until the present for 235 countries or areas, which have been developed through country-specific analyses of historical demographic trends. It builds on previous revisions by incorporating additional results from the 2010 and 2020 rounds of national population censuses as well as information from vital registration and recent nationally representative household sample surveys. The 2019 revision also presents population projections to the year 2100 that reflect a range of plausible outcomes at the global, regional and country levels. These Highlights summarise key population trends described by the estimates and projections presented in World Population Prospects 2019.

Beyond Six Billion

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309069904
Total Pages : 369 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond Six Billion by : National Research Council

Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-10-11 with total page 369 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

Population Dynamics and Projection Methods

Author : John Stillwell
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9048189306
Total Pages : 245 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (481 download)

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Book Synopsis Population Dynamics and Projection Methods by : John Stillwell

Download or read book Population Dynamics and Projection Methods written by John Stillwell and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-02-15 with total page 245 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although the human population growth rate of the world has been declining since peaking in the early 1960s, the populations of individual countries are changing at different rates. Population dynamics at national level are partly determined by levels of fertility and mortality, but the impact of international migration is playing an increasingly important role. Moreover, internal migration plays a major part in population change at the sub-national level. This fourth volume in the series “Understanding Population Trends and Processes” is a celebration of the work of Professor Philip Rees. It contains chapters by contributors who have collaborated with Phil Rees on research or consultancy projects or as postgraduate students. Several chapters demonstrate the technical nature of population projection modelling and simulation methods while others illustrate issues relating to data availability and estimation. This book demonstrates the application of theoretical and modelling methods and addresses key issues relating to contemporary demographic patterns and trends.

Guide for Local Area Population Projections

Author : Richard Irwin
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 92 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (121 download)

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Book Synopsis Guide for Local Area Population Projections by : Richard Irwin

Download or read book Guide for Local Area Population Projections written by Richard Irwin and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 92 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Developments in Demographic Forecasting

Author : Stefano Mazzuco
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030424723
Total Pages : 261 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Developments in Demographic Forecasting by : Stefano Mazzuco

Download or read book Developments in Demographic Forecasting written by Stefano Mazzuco and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-09-28 with total page 261 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.

Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting

Author : Tommy Bengtsson
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030050750
Total Pages : 349 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)

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Book Synopsis Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting by : Tommy Bengtsson

Download or read book Old and New Perspectives on Mortality Forecasting written by Tommy Bengtsson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-03-28 with total page 349 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book describes methods of mortality forecasting and discusses possible improvements. It contains a selection of previously unpublished and published papers, which together provide a state-of-the-art overview of statistical approaches as well as behavioural and biological perspectives. The different parts of the book provide discussions of current practice, probabilistic forecasting, the linearity in the increase of life expectancy, causes of death, and the role of cohort factors. The key question in the book is whether it is possible to project future mortality accurately, and if so, what is the best approach. This makes the book a valuable read to demographers, pension planners, actuaries, and all those interested and/or working in modelling and forecasting mortality.

Advanced Techniques of Population Analysis

Author : S.S. Halli
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780306439971
Total Pages : 258 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (399 download)

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Book Synopsis Advanced Techniques of Population Analysis by : S.S. Halli

Download or read book Advanced Techniques of Population Analysis written by S.S. Halli and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 1992-03-31 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Utilizing the most recent developments in statistical modeling as applied to population studies, the authors interpret results obtained from available software and apply these results to current research issues.

Demography

Author : Sarah Harper
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0191038687
Total Pages : 158 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Demography by : Sarah Harper

Download or read book Demography written by Sarah Harper and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018-05-11 with total page 158 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The generation into which each person is born, the demographic composition of that cohort, and its relation to those born at the same time in other places influences not only a person's life chances, but also the economic and political structures within which that life is lived; the person's access to social and natural resources (food, water, education, jobs, sexual partners); and even the length of that person's life. Demography, literally the study of people, addresses the size, distribution, composition, and density of populations, and considers the impact the drivers which mediate these will have on both individual lives and the changing structure of human populations. This Very Short Introduction considers the way in which the global population has evolved over time and space. Sarah Harper discusses the theorists, theories, and methods involved in studying population trends and movements, before looking at the emergence of new demographic sub-disciplines and addressing some of the future population challenges of the 21st century. ABOUT THE SERIES: The Very Short Introductions series from Oxford University Press contains hundreds of titles in almost every subject area. These pocket-sized books are the perfect way to get ahead in a new subject quickly. Our expert authors combine facts, analysis, perspective, new ideas, and enthusiasm to make interesting and challenging topics highly readable.

Beyond Six Billion

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309172020
Total Pages : 368 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond Six Billion by : National Research Council

Download or read book Beyond Six Billion written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-09-11 with total page 368 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.

Subnational Population Estimates

Author : David A. Swanson
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9048189543
Total Pages : 420 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (481 download)

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Book Synopsis Subnational Population Estimates by : David A. Swanson

Download or read book Subnational Population Estimates written by David A. Swanson and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-05-23 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Providing a unified and comprehensive treatment of the theory and techniques of sub-national population estimation, this much-needed publication does more than collate disparate source material. It examines hitherto unexplored methodological links between differing types of estimation from both the demographic and sample-survey traditions and is a self-contained primer that combines academic rigor with a wealth of real-world examples that are useful models for demographers. Between censuses, which are expensive, administratively complex, and thus infrequent, demographers and government officials must estimate population using either demographic modeling techniques or statistical surveys that sample a fraction of residents. These estimates play a central role in vital decisions that range from funding allocations and rate-setting to education, health and housing provision. They also provide important data to companies undertaking market research. However, mastering small-area and sub-national population estimation is complicated by scattered, incomplete and outdated academic sources—an issue this volume tackles head-on. Rapidly increasing population mobility is making inter-census estimation ever more important to strategic planners. This book will make the theory and techniques involved more accessible to anyone with an interest in developing or using population estimates.

Demographic Analysis

Author : Roland Pressat
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 0429610319
Total Pages : 521 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (296 download)

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Book Synopsis Demographic Analysis by : Roland Pressat

Download or read book Demographic Analysis written by Roland Pressat and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-10-11 with total page 521 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Population control requires that the birth rate equal to the death rate. If it is too low population will decline; if it is too high, population will increase. If either condition persists long enough the population will diminish towards zero or increase towards infinity. Fortunately, the birth trajectory does not have to be set once and for all, but can be adjusted within limits. Since birth and death rates determine whether we are heading for population extinction or explosion, they are well designated "vital statistics." Their understanding and use are a central theme of demographic analysis."Demographic Analysis" presents those techniques that are often called for in the study of demographic problems. Such techniques permit researchers to fill the gap between the large amounts of data made available by censuses and the theoretical and practical questions that need to be answered; the techniques of this book effectively bring the data into confrontation with the problems. In his treatment of population projection, Pressat applies methods developed in earlier sections for mortality arid fertility. The emphasis is on population projection and accords with its usefulness in demographic analysis. The meaning of a demographic rate or trend is brought out by seeing to what condition it would lead if continued. No assumption is made that the concrete future will follow either path.The substance of the book is devoted to the main themes of mortality and fertility. Underlying these as well as nearly every other kind of data with which the demographer deals is the problem of location in time - the relation of vital events to the calendar, and also to the age of the persons undergoing them. Pressat's detailed attention to this problem forms a solid basis for how current methodology accounts of demographic changes.

Projecting State and Local Populations

Author : Donald B. Pittenger
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 280 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Projecting State and Local Populations by : Donald B. Pittenger

Download or read book Projecting State and Local Populations written by Donald B. Pittenger and published by . This book was released on 1976 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "This book presents a comprehensive, detailed study of population forecasting techniques for subnational areas. It includes an analysis and projection of migration as well as numerous examples of analytical and forecasting techniques based on real data for actual localities. Fictitious data and simplified examples have been avoided. While Dr. Pittenger's study covers that range of methods used in the United States over the past 50 years, methods actually used during the 1970's are stressed"--Book jacket.

The Frontiers of Applied Demography

Author : David A. Swanson
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319433296
Total Pages : 519 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis The Frontiers of Applied Demography by : David A. Swanson

Download or read book The Frontiers of Applied Demography written by David A. Swanson and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-11-11 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book details cutting-edge methods and findings that may shape the future of applied demography. Inside, readers will discover new insights into the databases, substantive issues, and methodological approaches that can help them to improve how they use demography in decision making and planning problems in both public and private settings. The topics and perspectives are found in the book’s 23 chapters, which are organized into three major sections: (I) Demographic Information for Decision-Making: Case Studies; (II) Data: Issues and Analyses; and (III) Projection and Estimation Methods: Evaluations, Examples, and Discussions. Coverage includes chapters on migration, demographic market analysis, future courtroom needs, trends in the needs of the elderly, access to health care, longitudinal data systems, census costs, and new approaches to small area estimation and projection methods. The case studies represent a wide range of countries, including Australia, Canada, China, England, India, Japan, and the United States of America. Overall, this edited volume collects papers that were presented at different conferences, including the 8th international conference on population geographies (University of Queensland, 2015), the 2014 Applied Demography Conference (San Antonio, Texas, USA), and the annual conference of the Canadian Population Society. Applied demography touches many aspects of our lives and its practitioners continue to push methodological and empirical boundaries. This book documents the steady evolution of this field. It shows demographers, sociologists, economists, planners, marketers, and others how they can improve the quality and relevance of demographic information now and in the future.

World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century

Author : Wolfgang Lutz
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198813422
Total Pages : 737 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (988 download)

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Book Synopsis World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century by : Wolfgang Lutz

Download or read book World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-first Century written by Wolfgang Lutz and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017 with total page 737 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Condensed into a detailed analysis and a selection of continent-wide datasets, this revised edition of World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century addresses the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. Presenting the full chapter text of the original edition alongside a concise selection of data, it summarizes past trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and education, and examines relevant theories to identify key determining factors. Deriving from a global survey of hundreds of experts and five expert meetings on as many continents, World Population & Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century: An Overview emphasizes alternative trends in human capital, new ways of studying ageing and the quantification of alternative population, and education pathways in the context of global sustainable development. It is an ideal companion to the county specific online Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer.

Statistical Demography and Forecasting

Author : Juha Alho
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387283927
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Demography and Forecasting by : Juha Alho

Download or read book Statistical Demography and Forecasting written by Juha Alho and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-05-27 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Provides a unique introduction to demographic problems in a familiar language. Presents a unified statistical outlook on both classical methods of demography and recent developments. Exercises are included to facilitate its classroom use. Both authors have contributed extensively to statistical demography and served in advisory roles and as statistical consultants in the field.