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Policy Credibility And Sovereign Credit
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Book Synopsis Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit by : Mr.David Hauner
Download or read book Policy Credibility and Sovereign Credit written by Mr.David Hauner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-01-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: References to policy credibility, particularly with regard to fiscal policy, are ubiquitous in both economic literature and financial markets, even though it is not directly observable. The case of the EU new member states (NMS)-emerging markets joining a supranational entity that is generally considered to have higher policy credibility-provides a unique experiment to assess the effects of credibility on sovereign credit. This paper examines the impact of EU accession on three key variables that can reflect in varying degrees policy credibility: sovereign ratings, foreign currency spreads, and local currency yields. The results suggest that the NMS appear to have enjoyed higher credibility compared to their peers.
Book Synopsis Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers by : Mr.Paul R. Masson
Download or read book Credibility of Policies Versus Credibility of Policymakers written by Mr.Paul R. Masson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1994-05-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Standard models of policy credibility, defined as the expectation that an announced policy will be carried out, emphasize the preferences of the policymaker, and the role of tough policies in signalling toughness and raising credibility. Whether a policy is carried out, however, will also reflect the state of the economy. We present a model in which a policymaker maintains a fixed parity in good times, but devalues if the unemployment rate gets too high. Our main conclusion is that if there is persistence in unemployment, observing a tough policy in a given period may lower rather than raise the credibility of a no-devaluation pledge in subsequent periods. We test this implication on data for the interest rate differential between France and Germany and find support for our hypothesis.
Book Synopsis Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus by : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Download or read book Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Book Synopsis Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts by : Ms.Eva Jenkner
Download or read book Sub-National Credit Risk and Sovereign Bailouts written by Ms.Eva Jenkner and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-01-30 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Studies have shown that markets may underprice sub-national governments’ risk on the implicit assumption that these entities would be bailed out by their central government in case of financial difficulties. However, the question of whether sovereigns pay a premium on their own borrowing as a result of (implicitly or explicitly) guaranteeing sub-entities’ debt has been explored only little. We use an event study approach with separate equations for two levels of government to test for a simultaneous increase in sovereign risk premia and decrease in sub-national risk premia—or a de facto transfer of risk from the latter to the former—on the day a sovereign bailout is announced. Using daily financial market data for Spain and its autonomous regions from January 2010 to June 2013, we find support for our risk transfer hypothesis. We estimate that the Spanish sovereign’s spread may have increased by around 70 basis points as a result of the central government’s support for fiscally distressed comunidades autónomas.
Book Synopsis From Banking to Sovereign Stress - Implications For Public Debt by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book From Banking to Sovereign Stress - Implications For Public Debt written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-22 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.
Book Synopsis Rethinking Sovereign Debt by : Odette Lienau
Download or read book Rethinking Sovereign Debt written by Odette Lienau and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 2014-02-18 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Conventional wisdom holds that all nations must repay debt. Regardless of the legitimacy of the regime that signs the contract, a country that fails to honor its obligations damages its reputation. Yet should today's South Africa be responsible for apartheid-era debt? Is it reasonable to tether postwar Iraq with Saddam Hussein's excesses? Rethinking Sovereign Debt is a probing analysis of how sovereign debt continuity--the rule that nations should repay loans even after a major regime change, or else expect consequences--became dominant. Odette Lienau contends that the practice is not essential for functioning capital markets, and demonstrates its reliance on absolutist ideas that have come under fire over the last century. Lienau traces debt continuity from World War I to the present, emphasizing the role of government officials, the World Bank, and private markets in shaping our existing framework. Challenging previous accounts, she argues that Soviet Russia's repudiation of Tsarist debt and Great Britain's 1923 arbitration with Costa Rica hint at the feasibility of selective debt cancellation. Rethinking Sovereign Debt calls on scholars and policymakers to recognize political choice and historical precedent in sovereign debt and reputation, in order to move beyond an impasse when a government is overthrown.
Book Synopsis The democratic advantage by : Barry R. Weingast
Download or read book The democratic advantage written by Barry R. Weingast and published by Hoover Press. This book was released on with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks by : Thordur Jonasson
Download or read book A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks written by Thordur Jonasson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Book Synopsis The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts by : Mr.Francisco Roch
Download or read book The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts written by Mr.Francisco Roch and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-09-06 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Motivated by the recent European debt crisis, this paper investigates the scope for a bailout guarantee in a sovereign debt crisis. Defaults may arise from negative income shocks, government impatience or a "sunspot"-coordinated buyers strike. We introduce a bailout agency, and characterize the minimal actuarially fair intervention that guarantees the no-buyers-strike fundamental equilibrium, relying on the market for residual financing. The intervention makes it cheaper for governments to borrow, inducing them borrow more, leaving default probabilities possibly rather unchanged. The maximal backstop will be pulled precisely when fundamentals worsen.
Book Synopsis Global Waves of Debt by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Book Synopsis Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing by : Ms.Li L. Ong
Download or read book Credibility and Crisis Stress Testing written by Ms.Li L. Ong and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-09 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Credibility is the bedrock of any crisis stress test. The use of stress tests to manage systemic risk was introduced by the U.S. authorities in 2009 in the form of the Supervisory Capital Assessment Program. Since then, supervisory authorities in other jurisdictions have also conducted similar exercises. In some of those cases, the design and implementation of certainelements of the framework have been criticized for their lack of credibility. This paper proposes a set of guidelines for constructing an effective crisis stress test. It combines financial markets impact studies of previous exercises with relevant case study information gleaned from those experiences to identify the key elements and to formulate their appropriate design. Pertinent concepts, issues and nuances particular to crisis stress testing are also discussed. The findings may be useful for country authorities seeking to include stress tests in their crisis management arsenal, as well as for the design of crisis programs.
Book Synopsis The Sovereign Debt Crisis by : Anton Brender
Download or read book The Sovereign Debt Crisis written by Anton Brender and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The Sovereign Debt Crisis," 2012 edition, looked at how governments ran up substantial deficits in order to avert a worldwide depression and their subsequent attempts to rebalance their budgets. This updated edition concentrates on the delicate balancing act the economies of the United States, Japan, and the eurozone face between the present need to boost sluggish economic growth by providing sufficiently cheap, low-risk credit and the longer-term challenges of cutting massive debt and returning to a sustainable fiscal policy. The authors argue that many of the euro area economies, having noticeable difficulty paying their international debts, are in a sovereign debt crisis, while America and Japan are, for now, holding steady but in real danger of slipping into crisis. The book shows how the process has evolved in these three major developed economies and how their policy choices impact global financial markets.
Book Synopsis Why Not Default? by : Jerome E. Roos
Download or read book Why Not Default? written by Jerome E. Roos and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-12 with total page 413 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How creditors came to wield unprecedented power over heavily indebted countries—and the dangers this poses to democracy The European debt crisis has rekindled long-standing debates about the power of finance and the fraught relationship between capitalism and democracy in a globalized world. Why Not Default? unravels a striking puzzle at the heart of these debates—why, despite frequent crises and the immense costs of repayment, do so many heavily indebted countries continue to service their international debts? In this compelling and incisive book, Jerome Roos provides a sweeping investigation of the political economy of sovereign debt and international crisis management. He takes readers from the rise of public borrowing in the Italian city-states to the gunboat diplomacy of the imperialist era and the wave of sovereign defaults during the Great Depression. He vividly describes the debt crises of developing countries in the 1980s and 1990s and sheds new light on the recent turmoil inside the Eurozone—including the dramatic capitulation of Greece’s short-lived anti-austerity government to its European creditors in 2015. Drawing on in-depth case studies of contemporary debt crises in Mexico, Argentina, and Greece, Why Not Default? paints a disconcerting picture of the ascendancy of global finance. This important book shows how the profound transformation of the capitalist world economy over the past four decades has endowed private and official creditors with unprecedented structural power over heavily indebted borrowers, enabling them to impose painful austerity measures and enforce uninterrupted debt service during times of crisis—with devastating social consequences and far-reaching implications for democracy.
Book Synopsis Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises by : Michael Frenkel
Download or read book Sovereign Risk and Financial Crises written by Michael Frenkel and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2004-08-11 with total page 276 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sovereign risk and financial crises play a key role in current international economic developments, particularly in the case of economic downturns. As the Asian economic crisis in the late 1990s revealed once again, financial crises are the rule rather than the exception in capitalist economies. The event also revealed that international public debt agreements are contingent claims. In a world of increasing economic interdependencies, the issues of financial crises and country defaults are of critical importance. This volume goes to the heart of the academic discussion on sovereign risk and financial crises by centering on quantitative-empirical aspects, evaluating prominent approaches, and by proposing new methods. Part I of the volume identifies key factors and processes that are central in analyzing sovereign risk while Part II focuses on the determinants and effects of financial crises.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498343333 Total Pages :112 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis The Fund’s Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt - Annexes by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book The Fund’s Lending Framework and Sovereign Debt - Annexes written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-05-23 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Download or read book Laid Low written by Paul Blustein and published by McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP. This book was released on 2016-10-17 with total page 504 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The latest book by journalist and author Paul Blustein to go behind the scenes at the highest levels of global economic policy making, Laid Low chronicles the International Monetary Fund’s role in the euro-zone crisis. Based on interviews with a wide range of participants and scrutiny of thousands of documents, the book tells how the IMF joined in bailouts that all too often piled debt atop debt and imposed excessively harsh conditions on crisis-stricken countries. As the author shows, IMF officials had grave misgivings about a number of these rescues, but went along at the insistence of powerful European policy makers — to the detriment of the Fund’s credibility, with disheartening implications for the management of future crises. The narrative ends with a tale of the clash between Greece’s radical Syriza government and the country’s creditor institutions that reached a dramatic climax in the summer of 2015.
Book Synopsis Guidelines for Public Debt Management -- Amended by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Guidelines for Public Debt Management -- Amended written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-09-12 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
