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Author : Gerd Infanger
Publisher : Boyd & Fraser Publishing Company
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Planning Under Uncertainty written by Gerd Infanger and published by Boyd & Fraser Publishing Company. This book was released on 1994 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Michel Syrett
Publisher : The Economist
ISBN 13 : 1610395131
Total Pages : 224 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Managing Uncertainty written by Michel Syrett and published by The Economist. This book was released on 2014-02-25 with total page 224 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Managing uncertainty has become a new business imperative. Technological discontinuities, regulatory upheavals, geopolitical shocks, abrupt shifts in consumer tastes or behavior, and many other factors have emerged or intensified in recent years and together conspire to undermine even the most carefully constructed business strategies. Managing Uncertainty: Strategies for Surviving and Thriving in Turbulent Times addresses these new challenges, assessing the sources of business turbulence, how to classify uncertainty, and the different ways in which uncertainty can be embraced to allow greater innovation and growth. Drawing on examples from around the world, the book presents the most recent ideas on what it means to manage uncertainty, from practitioners, academics, and consultants. Addresses the challenges of managing uncertainty in business Presents a step-by-step guide to managing business uncertainty Draws examples from major international companies, including Intel, Procter & Gamble, Siemens, Boeing, Quinetiq, Philips, China Telecom, Ford, Apple, Shell, Glaxo SmithKline and many more Written for business leaders and managers looking for new ways to ensure that their businesses continue to thrive in a world of increasing complexity, Managing Uncertainty presents new and innovative ideas about reducing risk by understanding difficult-to-predict shifts.
Author : Stephan Frühling
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317817842
Total Pages : 269 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (178 download)
Download or read book Defence Planning and Uncertainty written by Stephan Frühling and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can countries decide what kind of military forces they need, if threats are uncertain and history is full of strategic surprises? This is a question that is more pertinent than ever, as countries across the Asia-Pacific are faced with the military and economic rise of China. Uncertainty is inherent in defence planning, but different types of uncertainty mean that countries need to approach decisions about military force structure in different ways. This book examines four different basic frameworks for defence planning, and demonstrates how states can make decisions coherently about the structure and posture of their defence forces despite strategic uncertainty. It draws on case studies from the United States, Australian and New Zealand, each of which developed key concepts for their particular circumstances and risk perception in Asia. Success as well as failure in developing coherent defence planning frameworks holds lessons for the United States and other countries as they consider how best to structure their military forces for the uncertain challenges of the future.
Author : Ruth Prince Mack
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Planning on Uncertainty written by Ruth Prince Mack and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1971 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Gudela Grote
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1848823738
Total Pages : 199 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (488 download)
Download or read book Management of Uncertainty written by Gudela Grote and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-09-17 with total page 199 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As I write, the financial systems of the world are collapsing with still no clear indication of what the consequences will be and which measures should be taken to avoid such a crisis in the future. There seems to be agreement though, that the financial instruments introduced in the past few decades entailed far too much complexity and uncertainty and that there was too little regulatory control over the use of these instruments. Management of uncertainty with the aim of achieving self-control is the core concern of this book. It was not written with a focus on financial systems, but many concepts developed in this book are applicable to this field as well. The - neric principles of reducing, maintaining or increasing uncertainties in view of the different contingencies an organization is faced with, the fundamental issue of how much control is possible and who should be in control, and the question of how much and what kind of regulation is necessary with the overall aim of finding an appropriate balance between system stability and flexibility are at the centre of heated debates on the future of finance.
Author : Colin S. Gray
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 0198701845
Total Pages : 238 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (987 download)
Download or read book Strategy and Defence Planning written by Colin S. Gray and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2014 with total page 238 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Strategy and Defence Planning: Meeting the Challenge of Uncertainty explores and examines why and how security communities prepare purposefully for their future defence. Professor Gray argues that our understanding of human nature, of politics, and of strategic history, does allow us to make prudent choices in defence planning.
Author : David Cleden
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1351920413
Total Pages : 131 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (519 download)
Download or read book Managing Project Uncertainty written by David Cleden and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dealing effectively with uncertainty requires today's project manager to be familiar with a broad spectrum of strategies, encompassing both 'hard' and 'soft' methods. This theme of unified thinking (i.e. the need to selectively draw upon a wide range of strategies in any given situation) will differentiate the book from its contemporaries. By picking up where traditional risk management techniques begin to fail, it brings together leading-edge thinking from a variety of disciplines and shows how these techniques can be used to conquer uncertainty in projects. The ability to make good decisions when faced with uncertainty is the real challenge. It is a universal truth that a decision is only as good as the information it is based on. But good information is often hard to come by, and all projects are vulnerable to the unknown and the unknowable. Thus, uncertainty becomes the sworn enemy of the project manager. Wherever we try to analyse, quantify, plan and act, uncertainty lies in wait to surprise us with its ambiguity and unpredictability. It lurks in every stage of the project lifecycle: in the planning (how long will this really take?), the initiation (this isn't the situation I expected!), the execution (who could have foreseen that happening?), and even the completion of a project (where are the expected benefits?). But managing uncertainty is a lot more than just applying risk management techniques. It requires a deep appreciation of how uncertainty arises and, by recognising its different guises, the appropriate strategies can be formulated. If we can learn how to reduce uncertainty, we can make better management decisions and increase the chances of the project succeeding. This book addresses five key questions: ¢ Why is there uncertainty in projects? ¢ How do you spot the symptoms of uncertainty, preferably at an early stage? ¢ What can be done to avoid uncertainty? ¢ What strategies can be used to deal with project uncertainty? ¢ How can both the individual and the organisation learn to cope more effectively in the future? The reader is assumed to be a either a project management professional, or a senior manager looking for ways to improve project management strategy within their organisation. As such, a foundation in project management basics is assumed, although not essential. The book then builds on this by exposing new ideas and concepts, and shows how these can be harnessed to tackle uncertainty in its many guises.
Author : Chris Bradley
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119487625
Total Pages : 256 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (194 download)
Download or read book Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick written by Chris Bradley and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2018-02-06 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beat the odds with a bold strategy from McKinsey & Company "Every once in a while, a genuinely fresh approach to business strategy appears" —legendary business professor Richard Rumelt, UCLA McKinsey & Company's newest, most definitive, and most irreverent book on strategy—which thousands of executives are already using—is a must-read for all C-suite executives looking to create winning corporate strategies. Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick is spearheading an empirical revolution in the field of strategy. Based on an extensive analysis of the key factors that drove the long-term performance of thousands of global companies, the book offers a ground-breaking formula that enables you to objectively assess your strategy's real odds of future success. "This book is fundamental. The principles laid out here, with compelling data, are a great way around the social pitfalls in strategy development." —Frans Van Houten, CEO, Royal Philips N.V. The authors have discovered that over a 10-year period, just 1 in 12 companies manage to jump from the middle tier of corporate performance—where 60% of companies reside, making very little economic profit—to the top quintile where 90% of global economic profit is made. This movement does not happen by magic—it depends on your company's current position, the trends it faces, and the big moves you make to give it the strongest chance of vaulting over the competition. This is not another strategy framework. Rather, Strategy Beyond the Hockey Stick shows, through empirical analysis and the experiences of dozens of companies that have successfully made multiple big moves, that to dramatically improve performance, you have to overcome incrementalism and corporate inertia. "A different kind of book—I couldn't put it down. Inspiring new insights on the facts of what it takes to move a company's performance, combined with practical advice on how to deal with real-life dynamics in management teams." —Jane Fraser, CEO, Citigroup Latin America
Author : Paul Schoemaker
Publisher : Simon and Schuster
ISBN 13 : 0743234189
Total Pages : 329 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (432 download)
Download or read book Profiting From Uncertainty written by Paul Schoemaker and published by Simon and Schuster. This book was released on 2012-12-25 with total page 329 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What manager is not anxious about the future? We live in a white-knuckled age of rapid technological change and global instability. But uncertainty is not the enemy, says management expert Paul J. H. Schoemaker. It is where the greatest opportunities are. To unlock these opportunities, however, requires a very different approach to strategy and implementation. In this pioneering book, Dr. Schoemaker presents a systematic approach that combines concepts such as scenario planning, options thinking, and dynamic monitoring to create novel strategies for profiting from ambiguity. Building on his experience with more than one hundred consulting projects in fields ranging from health care to manufacturing, from utilities to financial services, Schoemaker shows how major corporations throughout the world have used his pathbreaking methodology to prepare for an uncertain future and profit from it. In this first comprehensive approach to the subject, Schoemaker shows the reader (1) how to develop and analyze multiple industry scenarios, (2) craft nimble strategies with just the right amount of flexibility, (3) implement them using an options approach, and (4) make real-time adjustments through dynamic monitoring. As a leading academic thinker and practitioner, the author draws on the frontiers of decision science, organization theory, strategy, and cognitive psychology to integrate the most practical contributions these various fields have made to navigating uncertainty. More than any other capability, skill in seizing initiatives in shifting, unpredictable circumstances is the key to success. Profiting from Uncertainty provides a road map to do just that. This book was first published in 2002, well ahead of the mega turmoil that befell the world in 2008 and beyond. The methods and tools described here have been used by many companies and are even more relevant today than when originally published. You can’t do without them.
Author : Talbot C. Imlay
Publisher : Psychology Press
ISBN 13 : 9780415366960
Total Pages : 282 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (669 download)
Download or read book The Fog of Peace and War Planning written by Talbot C. Imlay and published by Psychology Press. This book was released on 2006 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How do we plan under conditions of uncertainty? The perspective of military planners is a key organizing framework: do they see themselves as preparing to administer a peace, or preparing to fight a future war? Most interwar volumes examine only the 1920s and the 1930s. This new volume goes back, and forward in time, to draw on a greater expanse of history in order to tease out lessons for contemporary planners. These chapters are grouped into four periods: 1815-1856, 1871-1914, 1918-1938, and post-Second World War. They progress from low-tech to high-tech concerns, for example, the first period examines armies, while the second period examines navies, the third asseses navies combined with air forces, and finally for the Kaiser chapter explores nuclear issues and decision-making.
Author : Elena Pede
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030172627
Total Pages : 88 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Planning for Resilience written by Elena Pede and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-06 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Given the increasing uncertainty due to catastrophic climate events, terrorist attacks, and economic crises, this book addresses planning for resilience by focusing on sharing knowledge among policy-makers, urban planners, emergency teams and citizens. Chapters look at the nature of contemporary risks, the widespread of resilience thinking and the gap between the theoretical conception and the practices. The book explores how resilience implies a change in planning practices, highlighting the need for flexibility in terms of procedures, and for dynamism in the knowledge systems and learning processes that are the main tools for interaction among different actors and scales. Given its breadth of coverage, the book offers a valuable resource for both academic readers (spatial planners, geographers, social scientists) and practitioners (policymakers, citizens’ associations).
Author : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262331713
Total Pages : 350 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Author : J.-C. Spender
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 0199686548
Total Pages : 339 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (996 download)
Download or read book Business Strategy written by J.-C. Spender and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Emphasising that firms face uncertainties and unknowns, this book argues that the core of strategic thinking and processes rests on the organization and its leaders developing newly imagined solutions to the opportunities that these uncertainties open up. It presents new approaches for managers, consultants, strategy teachers and students.
Author : Nicholas C. Georgantzas
Publisher : Praeger
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 440 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (2 download)
Download or read book Scenario-Driven Planning written by Nicholas C. Georgantzas and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1995-02-28 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "... This book undertakes the following tasks. 1. Charting the principal weakness of disconnected forecasts or wishes, including their lack of compatibility both in substance and in terms of their implicit assumptions. 2. Explaining the advantage of using internally coherent scenarios or scenario bundles. 3. Explaining the advantage of using computed decision scenarios. These allow an examination of the joint consequences of changes in the environment and in a firm's strategy, and not mistaking mere environmental hypothesizing for scenario-driven planning."--Introd., p. xx.
Author : Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030052524
Total Pages : 408 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (3 download)
Download or read book Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty written by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-04 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work. The publication of this book has been funded by the Radboud University, the RAND Corporation, Delft University of Technology, and Deltares.
Author : Andrea Kahn
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 0429514433
Total Pages : 391 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (295 download)
Download or read book Site Matters written by Andrea Kahn and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2020-12-21 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the era of the Anthropocene, site matters are more pressing than ever. Building on the concepts, theories, and multi-disciplinary approaches raised in the first edition, this publication strives to address the changes that have taken place over the last 15 years with new material to complement and re-position the initial volume. Reaching across design disciplines, this highly illustrated anthology assembles essays from architects, landscape architects, urban designers, planners, historians, and artists to explore ways to physically and conceptually engage site. Thoughtful discourse and empirically grounded pieces combine to provide the language and theory to contextualize the meanings of site in the built environment. The increasingly complex hybridity of constructed environments today demands new tools for thinking about and working with site. Drawing contributions from outside and within the traditional design disciplines, this edition will trace important developments in site thinking with new essays on topics such as climate change, landscape as infrastructure, shifts from global to planetary urbanization debates, and the proliferation of participatory site transformation practices. Edited by two leading practitioners and academics, Site Matters juxtaposes timeless contributions from individuals including Elizabeth Meyer, Robert Beauregard, and Robin Dripps with original new writings from Peter Marcuse, Jane Wolff, Neil Brenner, and Thaisa Way, amongst others, to recontextualize and reignite the debate around site. An ideal text for students, academics, and researchers interested in site and design theory.
Author : Stephan Frühling
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1317817850
Total Pages : 253 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (178 download)
Download or read book Defence Planning and Uncertainty written by Stephan Frühling and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 253 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How can countries decide what kind of military forces they need, if threats are uncertain and history is full of strategic surprises? This is a question that is more pertinent than ever, as countries across the Asia-Pacific are faced with the military and economic rise of China. Uncertainty is inherent in defence planning, but different types of uncertainty mean that countries need to approach decisions about military force structure in different ways. This book examines four different basic frameworks for defence planning, and demonstrates how states can make decisions coherently about the structure and posture of their defence forces despite strategic uncertainty. It draws on case studies from the United States, Australian and New Zealand, each of which developed key concepts for their particular circumstances and risk perception in Asia. Success as well as failure in developing coherent defence planning frameworks holds lessons for the United States and other countries as they consider how best to structure their military forces for the uncertain challenges of the future.
