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Overconfidence And Risk Taking In Foreign Policy Decision Making
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Book Synopsis Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making by : Imran Demir
Download or read book Overconfidence and Risk Taking in Foreign Policy Decision Making written by Imran Demir and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-03-24 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book introduces a new perspective on risk seeking behaviour, developing a framework based on various cognitive theories, and applying it to the specific case-study of Turkey’s foreign policy toward Syria. The author examines why policy makers commit themselves to polices that they do not have the capacity to deliver, and develops an alternative theoretical model to prospect theory in explaining risk taking behaviour based on the concept of overconfidence. The volume suggests that overconfident individuals exhibit risk seeking behaviour that contradicts the risk averse behaviour of individuals in the domain of gain, as predicted by prospect theory. Using a set of testable hypothesis deduced from the model, it presents an empirical investigation of the causes behind Turkish decision makers’ unprecedented level of risk taking toward the uprising in Syria and the consequences of this policy.
Book Synopsis Risk-Taking in International Politics by : Rose McDermott
Download or read book Risk-Taking in International Politics written by Rose McDermott and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 2001 with total page 256 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Discusses the way leaders deal with risk in making foreign policy decisions
Book Synopsis Risk-taking in International Politics by : Rose McDermott
Download or read book Risk-taking in International Politics written by Rose McDermott and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Psychology of Foreign Policy by : Christer Pursiainen
Download or read book The Psychology of Foreign Policy written by Christer Pursiainen and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-10-16 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on foreign policy decision-making from the viewpoint of psychology. Psychology is always present in human decision-making, constituted by its structural determinants but also playing its own agency-level constitutive and causal roles, and therefore it should be taken into account in any analysis of foreign policy decisions. The book analyses a wide variety of prominent psychological approaches, such as bounded rationality, prospect theory, belief systems, cognitive biases, emotions, personality theories and trust to the study of foreign policy, identifying their achievements and added value as well as their limitations from a comparative perspective. Understanding how leaders in world politics act requires us to consider recent advances in neuroscience, psychology and behavioral economics. As a whole, the book aims at better integrating various psychological theories into the study of international relations and foreign policy analysis, as partial explanations themselves but also as facets of more comprehensive theories. It also discusses practical lessons that the psychological approaches offer since ignoring psychology can be costly: decision-makers need to be able reflect on their own decision-making process as well as the perspectives of the others. Paying attention to the psychological factors in international relations is necessary for better understanding the microfoundations upon which such agency is based.
Book Synopsis Risk Taking and Decisionmaking by : Yaacov Vertzberger
Download or read book Risk Taking and Decisionmaking written by Yaacov Vertzberger and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risks are an integral part of complex, high-stakes decisions, and decisionmakers are faced with the unavoidable tasks of assessing risks and forming risk preferences. This is true for all decision domains, including financial, environmental, and foreign policy domains, among others. How well decisionmakers deal with risk affects, to a considerable extent, the quality of their decisions. This book provides the most comprehensive analysis available of the elements that influence risk judgments and preferences. The book has two dimensions: theoretical and comparative-historical. The study of risk-taking behavior has been dominated by the rational choice approach. Instead, the author adopts a socio-cognitive approach involving: a multivariate theory integrating contextual, cognitive, motivational, and personality factors that affect an individual decisionmaker’s judgment and preferences; the social interaction and structural effects of the decisionmaking group and its organizational setting; and the role of cultural-societal values and norms that sanction or discourage risk taking behavior. The book’s theoretical approach is applied and tested in five historical case studies of foreign military interventions. The richly detailed empirical data on the case studies make them, metaphorically speaking, an ideal laboratory for applying a process-tracing approach in studying judgment and decision processes at varying risk levels. The case studies analyzed are: U.S. interventions in Grenada in 1983 and Panama in 1989 (both low risk); Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia in 1968 (moderate risk): U.S. intervention in Vietnam in 1964-68 (high risk); and Israel’s intervention in Lebanon in 1982-83 (high risk).
Book Synopsis The Nation or the Ummah by : Birol Başkan
Download or read book The Nation or the Ummah written by Birol Başkan and published by State University of New York Press. This book was released on 2021-12-01 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Turkey's enthusiastic embrace of the Arab Spring set in motion a dynamic that fundamentally altered its relations with the United States, Russia, Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran, and transformed Turkey from a soft power to a hard power in the tangled geopolitics of the Middle East. Birol Başkan and Ömer Taşpınar argue that the ruling Justice and Development Party's (AKP) Islamist background played a significant role in the country's decision to embrace the uprisings and the subsequent foreign policy direction the country has pursued. They demonstrate that religious ideology is endogenous to—shaping and in turn being shaped by—Turkey's various engagements in the Middle East. The Nation or the Ummah emphasizes that while Islamist religious ideology does not provide specific policy prescriptions, it does shape the way the ruling elite sees and interprets the context and the structural boundaries they operate within.
Book Synopsis Middle Powers in Asia and Europe in the 21st Century by : Giampiero Giacomello
Download or read book Middle Powers in Asia and Europe in the 21st Century written by Giampiero Giacomello and published by Rowman & Littlefield. This book was released on 2020-07-02 with total page 227 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume presents three claims regarding the role of middle powers in the 21st Century: first, states aspiring to become or remain middle powers choose from three possible role: to be a global middle powers; to be a regional pivot; or to be a niche leader. Second, states seeking such roles need different mixes of hard and soft power sources. Third, more so than great or small powers, middle powers walk a thin line between the domestic and systemic pressures they face. In this volume, these claims are based on (comparative) case studies of Germany, Iran, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, South Korea, Sweden, and Turkey.
Book Synopsis Striking From the Margins by : Aziz Al-Azmeh
Download or read book Striking From the Margins written by Aziz Al-Azmeh and published by Saqi Books. This book was released on 2021-05-18 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Arab world has undergone a series of radical transformations. One of the most significant is the resurgence of activist and puritanical forms of religion presenting as viable alternatives to existing social, cultural and political practices. The rise in sectarianism and violence in the name of religion has left scholars searching for adequate conceptual tools that might generate a clearer insight into these interconnected conflicts. In Striking from the Margins, leading authorities in their field propose new analytical frameworks to facilitate greater understanding of the fragmentation and devolution of the state in the Arab world. Challenging the revival of well-worn theories in cultural and post-colonial studies, they provide novel contributions on issues ranging from military formations, political violence in urban and rural settings, transregional war economies, the crystallisation of sect-based authorities and the restructuring of tribal networks. Placing much-needed emphasis on the re-emergence of religion, this timely and vital volume offers a new, critical approach to the study of the volatile and evolving cultural, social and political landscapes of the Middle East.
Book Synopsis Turkey's Pivot to Eurasia by : Emre Erşen
Download or read book Turkey's Pivot to Eurasia written by Emre Erşen and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-05-21 with total page 200 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discusses and analyses the dimensions of Turkey’s strategic rapprochement with the Eurasian states and institutions since the deterioration of Ankara’s relations with its traditional NATO allies. Do these developments signify a major strategic reorientation in Turkish foreign policy? Is Eurasia becoming an alternative geopolitical concept to Europe or the West? Or is this ‘pivot to Eurasia’ an instrument of the current Turkish government to obtain greater diplomatic leverage? Engaging with these key questions, the contributors explore the geographical, political, economic, military and social dynamics that influence this process, while addressing the questions that arise from the difficulties in reconciling Ankara’s strategic priorities with those of other Eurasian countries like Russia, China, Iran and India. Chapters focus on the different aspects of Turkey’s improving bilateral relations with the Eurasian states and institutions and consider the possibility of developing a convincing Eurasian alternative for Turkish foreign policy. The book will be useful for researchers in the fields of politics and IR more broadly, and particularly relevant for scholars and students researching Turkish foreign policy and the geopolitics of Eurasia.
Book Synopsis Spoils of War in the Arab East by : Aziz Al-Azmeh
Download or read book Spoils of War in the Arab East written by Aziz Al-Azmeh and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2024-01-11 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Post-conflict scenarios are often proposed for Arab countries that have witnessed significant changes and civil wars. Yet the plans for reconciliation, transitional justice, and the return of the displaced often overlook the real conditions that make these recommendations impossible. This book provides a critical analysis of current post-conflict frameworks for Syria and Iraq. Drawing on empirical research, the book shows that reconciliation and reconstruction scenarios need to be considered alongside the realities on the ground. It argues that Iraq and Syria exist in a condition of 'conflict transformation' rather than of 'conflict termination', because the extreme changes that accompanied these countries into war continue long after the conflicts end. Furthermore, the chapters highlight why experts should not seek solutions in culturalist terms and ancestral enmities, or rely on the wartime status quo. Rather, they should look to the specific military, political, economic and socio-cultural conditions that require different solutions. A critical analysis of existing post-conflict frameworks, their applicability and their potential outcomes in Iraq and Syria, the book is a vital contribution to post-conflict studies. It highlights the need for new approaches to reconstruction and peacebuilding in Arab countries and points to how they should be found.
Book Synopsis The Routledge Handbook of Turkish Politics by : Alpaslan Özerdem
Download or read book The Routledge Handbook of Turkish Politics written by Alpaslan Özerdem and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2019-04-09 with total page 514 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Routledge Handbook of Turkish Politics pulls together contributions from many of the world’s leading scholars on different aspects of Turkey. Turkey today is going through possibly the most turbulent period in its history, with major consequences both nationally and internationally. The country looks dramatically different from the Republic founded by Atatürk in 1923. The pace of change has been rapid and fundamental, with core interlinked changes in ruling institutions, political culture, political economy, and society. Divided into six main parts, this Handbook provides a single-source overview of Turkish politics: Part I: History and the making of Contemporary Turkey Part II: Politics and Institutions Part III: The Economy, Environment and Development Part IV: The Kurdish Insurgency and Security Part V: State, Society and Rights Part VI: External Relations This comprehensive Handbook is an essential resource for students of Politics, International Relations, International/Security Studies with an interest on contemporary Turkey.
Book Synopsis War and Chance by : Jeffrey A. Friedman
Download or read book War and Chance written by Jeffrey A. Friedman and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2019-04-01 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty surrounds every major decision in international politics. Yet there is almost always room for reasonable people to disagree about what that uncertainty entails. No one can reliably predict the outbreak of armed conflict, forecast economic recessions, anticipate terrorist attacks, or estimate the countless other risks that shape foreign policy choices. Many scholars and practitioners therefore believe that it is better to keep foreign policy debates focused on the facts - that it is, at best, a waste of time to debate uncertain judgments that will often prove to be wrong. In War and Chance, Jeffrey A. Friedman shows how foreign policy officials often try to avoid the challenge of assessing uncertainty, and argues that this behavior undermines high-stakes decision making. Drawing on an innovative combination of historical and experimental evidence, he explains how foreign policy analysts can assess uncertainty in a manner that is theoretically coherent, empirically meaningful, politically defensible, practically useful, and sometimes logically necessary for making sound choices. Each of these claims contradicts widespread skepticism about the value of probabilistic reasoning in international politics, and shows how placing greater emphasis on assessing uncertainty can improve nearly any foreign policy debate. A clear-eyed examination of the logic, psychology, and politics of assessing uncertainty, War and Chance provides scholars and practitioners with new foundations for understanding one of the most controversial elements of foreign policy discourse.
Book Synopsis Perception and Misperception in International Politics by : Robert Jervis
Download or read book Perception and Misperception in International Politics written by Robert Jervis and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2017-05-02 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since its original publication in 1976, Perception and Misperception in International Politics has become a landmark book in its field, hailed by the New York Times as "the seminal statement of principles underlying political psychology." This new edition includes an extensive preface by the author reflecting on the book's lasting impact and legacy, particularly in the application of cognitive psychology to political decision making, and brings that analysis up to date by discussing the relevant psychological research over the past forty years. Jervis describes the process of perception (for example, how decision makers learn from history) and then explores common forms of misperception (such as overestimating one's influence). He then tests his ideas through a number of important events in international relations from nineteenth- and twentieth-century European history. Perception and Misperception in International Politics is essential for understanding international relations today.
Book Synopsis Risk Taking and Decision Making by :
Download or read book Risk Taking and Decision Making written by and published by Stanford University Press. This book was released on 1998-02 with total page 540 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Risks are an integral part of complex, high-stakes decisions, and decisionmakers are faced with the unavoidable tasks of assessing risks and forming risk preferences. This is true for all decision domains, including financial, environmental, and foreign policy domains, among others. How well decisionmakers deal with risk affects, to a considerable extent, the quality of their decisions. This book provides the most comprehensive analysis available of the elements that influence risk judgments and preferences. The book has two dimensions: theoretical and comparative-historical. The study of risk-taking behavior has been dominated by the rational choice approach. Instead, the author adopts a socio-cognitive approach involving: a multivariate theory integrating contextual, cognitive, motivational, and personality factors that affect an individual decisionmaker's judgment and preferences; the social interaction and structural effects of the decisionmaking group and its organizational setting; and the role of cultural-societal values and norms that sanction or discourage risk taking behavior. The book's theoretical approach is applied and tested in five historical case studies of foreign military interventions. The richly detailed empirical data on the case studies make them, metaphorically speaking, an ideal laboratory for applying a process-tracing approach in studying judgment and decision processes at varying risk levels. The case studies analyzed are: U.S. interventions in Grenada in 1983 and Panama in 1989 (both low risk); Soviet intervention in Czechoslovakia in 1968 (moderate risk): U.S. intervention in Vietnam in 1964-68 (high risk); and Israel's intervention in Lebanon in 1982-83 (high risk).
Book Synopsis Decision Taking, Confidence and Risk Management in Banks from Early Modernity to the 20th Century by : Korinna Schönhärl
Download or read book Decision Taking, Confidence and Risk Management in Banks from Early Modernity to the 20th Century written by Korinna Schönhärl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-01-26 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book offers 14 contributions that examine key questions in bank decision-taking,constitution of confidence in banks and risk management practices from Early Modernity to the twentieth century. It explores how the various mechanisms of bank decision taking changed over time. Chapters also analyse the types of risk management techniques used, the contributory factors to the constitution of confidence and the methods that banking historians can use to analyse and describe bankers ́ risk management and decision taking - from system theory to behavioural finance, new institutional economics to praxeology and convention theory to network analysis. The different methodological approaches are put to the test in case studies based on archive material from four hundred years of banking in order to connect banking history more closely to political and cultural history.
Book Synopsis Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making by : Alex Mintz
Download or read book Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making written by Alex Mintz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-02-22 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding Foreign Policy Decision Making presents a psychological approach to foreign policy decision making. This approach focuses on the decision process, dynamics, and outcome. The book includes a wealth of extended real-world case studies and examples that are woven into the text. The cases and examples, which are written in an accessible style, include decisions made by leaders of the United States, Israel, New Zealand, Cuba, Iceland, United Kingdom, and others. In addition to coverage of the rational model of decision making, levels of analysis of foreign policy decision making, and types of decisions, the book includes extensive material on alternatives to the rational choice model, the marketing and framing of decisions, cognitive biases, and domestic, cultural, and international influences on decision making in international affairs. Existing textbooks do not present such an approach to foreign policy decision making, international relations, American foreign policy, and comparative foreign policy.
Book Synopsis Political Psychology by : David Patrick Houghton
Download or read book Political Psychology written by David Patrick Houghton and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2014-08-25 with total page 341 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What shapes political behavior more: the situations in which individuals find themselves, or the internal psychological makeup---beliefs, values, and so on---of those individuals? This is perhaps the leading division within the psychological study of politics today. Political Psychology: Situations, Individuals, and Cases, 2nd edition, provides a concise, readable, and conceptually organized introduction to the topic of political psychology by examining this very question. Using this situationism--dispositionism framework—which roughly parallels the concerns of social and cognitive psychology—this book focuses on such key explanatory mechanisms as behaviorism, obedience, personality, groupthink, cognition, affect, emotion, and neuroscience to explore topics ranging from voting behavior and racism to terrorism and international relations. The new edition includes a new chapter on the psychology of the media and communication. Houghton has also updated the text to analyze recent political events such as the 2012 election, and to include up-and-coming research in the areas of neuroscience, behavioral economics, and more. Houghton's clear and engaging examples directly challenge students to place themselves in both real and hypothetical situations which involve intense moral and political dilemmas. This highly readable text will provide students with the conceptual foundation they need to make sense of the rapidly changing and increasingly important field of political psychology.
