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Output Gap Monetary Policy Trade Offs And Financial Frictions
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Book Synopsis Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs by : Francesco Furlanetto
Download or read book Output Gap in Presence of Financial Frictions and Monetary Policy Trade-offs written by Francesco Furlanetto and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-07-18 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis illustrates that financial frictions are a significant source of volatility in the economy. This paper investigates monetary policy stabilization in an environment where financial frictions are a relevant source of macroeconomic fluctuation. We derive a measure of output gap that accounts for frictions in financial market. Furthermore we illustrate that, in the presence of financial frictions, a benevolent central bank faces a substantial trade-off between nominal and real stabilization; optimal monetary policy significantly reduces fluctuations in price and wage inflations but fails to alleviate the output gap volatility. This suggests a role for macroprudential policies.
Book Synopsis Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs and Financial Frictions by : Francesco Furlanetto
Download or read book Output Gap, Monetary Policy Trade-offs and Financial Frictions written by Francesco Furlanetto and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Financial Factors by : Mr.Pau Rabanal
Download or read book Financial Factors written by Mr.Pau Rabanal and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We suggest a new approach for analyzing the role of financial variables and shocks in computing the output gap. We estimate a two-region DSGE model for the euro area, with financial frictions at the household level, between 2000-2013. After joining the monetary union, a decline in some countries’ borrowing costs contributed to a credit, housing and real boom and bust cycle. We show that financial frictions amplified economic fluctuations and the measure of the output gap in those countries. On the contrary, in countries such as France and Germany, financial frictions played a minor role in output gap measures. We also present evidence of the trade-offs faced by the European Central Bank when trying to stabilize two regions in a currency union with unsynchronized economic cycles.
Book Synopsis Interbank Frictions, Business Cycle Fluctuations and Monetary Policy Trade-offs by : Yujung Suh
Download or read book Interbank Frictions, Business Cycle Fluctuations and Monetary Policy Trade-offs written by Yujung Suh and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Great Recession and consequent slow overall economic recovery have reignited research interests in financial factors in business cycle fluctuations and monetary policy rules. In the recent financial crisis, highly interconnected and leveraged financial institutions through wholesale financial markets have been blamed as the main culprit in exacerbating the initial shock in the financial market. The role of market-based financial institutions in the supply of credit has been expanded in the United States especially before the Great Recession. The market-based institutions have used securitization as one of their important tools to raise funds. Market-based lending and the related securitization process are a part of the shadow banking system, which is broadly defined as ''credit intermediation involving entities and activities (fully or partially) outside the regular banking system'' by the Financial Stability Board. My dissertation investigates the importance of financial factors in the business cycle fluctuations and monetary policy rules. The first chapter explores the role of interbank friction shocks in accounting for the business cycle fluctuations. I augment financial intermediation of Gertler and Kiyotaki (2011) with an otherwise standard New Keynesian DSGE model with nominal rigidities in wages and prices. I then fit the model to US data, using two new financial variables (interbank loans and the net worth of banks) in the literature and allowing the interbank frictions to vary over time following exogenous shocks to these frictions. According to the Bayesian estimation of the model, shocks to interbank frictions are important factors in explaining the fluctuations of the economy, accounting for 7% of the output fluctuations, 11% of the investment fluctuations, 53% of the fluctuations in the premium and 8% of the fluctuations in interbank loans. Analyses of historical decompositions show that interbank frictions shock plays an important role in the movement of key macro variables early in the downturn of the recent financial crisis. In the second chapter, I evaluate the effect of financial frictions and shocks on monetary policy. The identification method of Justiniano, Primiceri and Tambalotti (2011) is adopted to tackle the criticism on the identification between labor supply shocks and wage markup shocks by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan (2009). The model is re-estimated with more data series on nominal wage inflation and the output gap, defined as the difference between the actual output and potential out, is derived. The output gap is estimated to be large and displays low-frequency movements under Taylor-rule type monetary policy. Estimated shocks including interbank friction shocks then are fed into the model under Ramsey optimal monetary policy to evaluate the impact of financial shocks on the evolution of the economy and the counterfactual simulation on the evolution of the economy is conducted. The counterfactuals show that, unlike the volatile movements of output gap under Taylor-rule type monetary policy, the output gap is more stabilized and the trade-offs between conflicting policy objectives are moderate if monetary policy is conducted optimally. The last chapter explores the possibility of regime shifts in the financial frictions and the volatility of shocks to financial frictions. The preliminary estimation results on the regime-switching DSGE model show that the regime has switched between low friction and high friction regimes. At this sage, the results are mostly preliminary since the numerical optimization may stop at a local but not global maximum of the posterior distribution due to the possibility that the objective function is flat or multimodal with shifts in regimes. More through results will be obtained by gradient-free global optimization methods. The artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm and the differential evolution algorithm are now employed to estimate the regime-switching DSGE model in the last chapter.
Book Synopsis Beyond Divine Coincidence by : Palek, Jakob
Download or read book Beyond Divine Coincidence written by Palek, Jakob and published by kassel university press GmbH. This book was released on 2016-01-01 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the so-called Great Moderation the variability of output, employment and inflation declined substantially in most of the major economies. Because of this positive co-movement the ultimate objective of monetary policy was clear. By stabilizing inflation output will also stay at its potential and the central bank does not face any trade-off between its targets – a situation known as the divine coincidence. With the onset of the financial crisis 2007 these relationships changed. This book contributes to the research on the optimal macroeconomic policy design in the presence of financial frictions. These are incorporated via the cost channel approach into a two-country currency union model. Ultimately, a supply-side effect arises which lowers the efficiency of monetary policy - divine coincidence is not possible any more. Three questions are in the focus of interest of this analysis: What is the optimal monetary policy in the presence of country-specific financial frictions? What role can fiscal policy play? Is macroprudential policy able to improve welfare if the central bank targets a financial stability measure?
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Over Fifty Years by : Heinz Herrmann
Download or read book Monetary Policy Over Fifty Years written by Heinz Herrmann and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-06-02 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The contributions to this prestigious volume describe important developments in monetary economics and monetary policy during the past half century and to draw lessons from this for the future with chapters from Charles Goodhart and Olivier Blanchard.
Book Synopsis Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks by : Davide Debortoli
Download or read book Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks written by Davide Debortoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-21 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Trade-offs in an Estimated Open-economy DSGE Model by : Malin Adolfson
Download or read book Monetary Policy Trade-offs in an Estimated Open-economy DSGE Model written by Malin Adolfson and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the transmission of shocks and the trade-offs between stabilizing CPI inflation and alternative measures of the output gap in Ramses, the Riksbank's empirical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy. The main results are, first, that the transmission of shocks depends substantially on the conduct of monetary policy, and second, that the trade-off between stabilizing CPI inflation and the output gap strongly depends on which concept of potential output in the output gap between output and potential output is used in the loss function. If potential output is defined as a smooth trend this trade-off is much more pronounced compared to the case when potential output is defined as the output level that would prevail if prices and wages were flexible.
Book Synopsis Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk by : Tobias Adrian
Download or read book Monetary and Macroprudential Policy with Endogenous Risk written by Tobias Adrian and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Strategy by : Frederic S. Mishkin
Download or read book Monetary Policy Strategy written by Frederic S. Mishkin and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2009-08-21 with total page 561 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A leading academic authority and policymaker discusses monetary policy strategy from the perspectives of both scholar and practitioner, offering theory, econometric evidence, and extensive case studies. This book by a leading authority on monetary policy offers a unique view of the subject from the perspectives of both scholar and practitioner. Frederic Mishkin is not only an academic expert in the field but also a high-level policymaker. He is especially well positioned to discuss the changes in the conduct of monetary policy in recent years, in particular the turn to inflation targeting. Monetary Policy Strategy describes his work over the last ten years, offering published papers, new introductory material, and a summing up, “Everything You Wanted to Know about Monetary Policy Strategy, But Were Afraid to Ask,” which reflects on what we have learned about monetary policy over the last thirty years. Mishkin blends theory, econometric evidence, and extensive case studies of monetary policy in advanced and emerging market and transition economies. Throughout, his focus is on these key areas: the importance of price stability and a nominal anchor; fiscal and financial preconditions for achieving price stability; central bank independence as an additional precondition; central bank accountability; the rationale for inflation targeting; the optimal inflation target; central bank transparency and communication; and the role of asset prices in monetary policy.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Inflation/Output Variance Trade-Offs and Optimal Monetary Policy by : Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
Download or read book Inflation/Output Variance Trade-Offs and Optimal Monetary Policy written by Jeffrey C. Fuhrer and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I estimate the inflation/output-gap variance trade-off faced by monetary policymakers in the U.S. For policymakers who care about deviations of inflation around target and output around potential, the estimated trade-off represents the "optimal policy frontier." Given the structure of the economy, policymakers can do no better than to attain weighted variances of inflation and output that lie on the frontier. I find that the variance trade-off becomes quite severe when the standard deviation of inflation or output drops much below 2%. This suggests that approximately balanced responses to policy goals are consistent with reasonable preferences over inflation and output variability.
Book Synopsis International Capital Flows by : Martin Feldstein
Download or read book International Capital Flows written by Martin Feldstein and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-12-01 with total page 500 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs, and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans. International Capital Flows contains recent work by eminent scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia, and eastern Europe. These papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets, and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection is a valuable resource for economists, policymakers, and financial market participants.
Book Synopsis Banking Competition, Collateral Constraints and Optimal Monetary Policy by : Javier Angel Andrés Domingo
Download or read book Banking Competition, Collateral Constraints and Optimal Monetary Policy written by Javier Angel Andrés Domingo and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze optimal monetary policy in a model with two distinct financial frictions. First, borrowing is subject to collateral constraints. Second, credit flows are intermediated by monopolistically competitive banks, thus giving rise to endogenous lending spreads. We show that, up to a second order approximation, welfare maximization is equivalent to stabilization of four goals: inflation, output gap, the consumption gap between constrained and unconstrained agents, and the distribution of the collateralizable asset between both groups. Following both financial and non-financial shocks, the optimal monetary policy commitment implies a short-run trade-off between stabilization goals. Such policy trade-offs become amplified as banking competition increases, due to the fall in lending spreads and the resulting increase in financial leveraging.[Resumen de autor]
Book Synopsis Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind by : Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson
Download or read book Cost-Benefit Analysis of Leaning Against the Wind written by Mr.Lars E. O. Svensson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-01-11 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: “Leaning against the wind” (LAW) with a higher monetary policy interest rate may have benefits in terms of lower real debt growth and associated lower probability of a financial crisis but has costs in terms of higher unemployment and lower inflation, importantly including a higher cost of a crisis when the economy is weaker. For existing empirical estimates, costs exceed benefits by a substantial margin, even if monetary policy is nonneutral and permanently affects real debt. Somewhat surprisingly, less effective macroprudential policy and generally a credit boom, with resulting higher probability, severity, or duration of a crisis, increases costs of LAW more than benefits, thus further strengthening the strong case against LAW.
Author :International Monetary Fund Publisher :INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN 13 :9781513558769 Total Pages :54 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (587 download)
Book Synopsis Toward an Integrated Policy Framework by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Toward an Integrated Policy Framework written by International Monetary Fund and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-08 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers often face difficult tradeoffs in pursuing domestic and external stabilization objectives. The paper reflects staff’s work to advance the understanding of the policy options and tradeoffs available to policymakers in a systematic and analytical way. The paper recognizes that the optimal path of the IPF tools depends on structural characteristics and fiscal policies. The operational implications of IPF findings require careful consideration. Developing safeguards to minimize the risk of inappropriate use of IPF policies will be essential. Staff remains guided by the Fund’s Institutional View (IV) on the Liberalization and Management of Capital Flows.
Book Synopsis Asset Prices and Monetary Policy by : John Y. Campbell
Download or read book Asset Prices and Monetary Policy written by John Y. Campbell and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2008-11-15 with total page 444 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In Asset Prices and Monetary Policy, leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system. The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.
