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Author : Giorgio Ferrari
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (118 download)
Download or read book Optimal Management of Debt-To-GDP Ratio with Regime-Switching Interest Rate written by Giorgio Ferrari and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Giorgio Ferrari
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (119 download)
Download or read book Optimal Control of Debt-to-GDP Ratio in an N-state Regime Switching Economy written by Giorgio Ferrari and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We solve an infinite time-horizon bounded-variation stochastic control problem with regime switching between N states. This is motivated by the problem of a government that wants to control the country's debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio. In our formulation, the debt-to-GDP ratio evolves stochastically in continuous time, and its drift - given by the interest rate on government debt, net of the growth rate of GDP - is affected by an exogenous macroeconomic risk process modelled by a continuous-time Markov chain with N states. The government can act on the public debt by increasing or decreasing its level, and it aims at minimising a net expected cost functional. Without relying on a guess-and-verify approach, but performing a direct probabilistic study, we show that it is optimal to keep the debt-to-GDP ratio in an interval, whose boundaries depend on the states of the risk process. These boundaries are given through a zero-sum optimal stopping game with regime switching with N states and we completely characterise them as solutions to a system of nonlinear algebraic equations with constraints. To the best of our knowledge, such a result appears here for the first time. Finally, we put in practice our methodology in a case study of a Markov chain with N = 2 states; we provide a thorough analysis and we complement our theoretical results by a detailed numerical study on the sensitivity of the optimal debt ratio management policy with respect to the problem's parameters.
Author : Mr.Cristiano Cantore
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475590199
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management written by Mr.Cristiano Cantore and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-30 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government’s commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary-fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks”, perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds–under commitment–the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long and short-term bonds.
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 149832892X
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Guidelines for Public Debt Management -- Amended written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-09-12 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: NULL
Author : M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464815453
Total Pages : 403 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)
Download or read book Global Waves of Debt written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-03 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.
Author : Mr.Jaromir Benes
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475505523
Total Pages : 71 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book The Chicago Plan Revisited written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.
Author : Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484359623
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Managing the Sovereign-Bank Nexus written by Mr.Giovanni Dell'Ariccia and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-09-07 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews empirical and theoretical work on the links between banks and their governments (the bank-sovereign nexus). How significant is this nexus? What do we know about it? To what extent is it a source of concern? What is the role of policy intervention? The paper concludes with a review of recent policy proposals.
Author : Goran Peskir
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3764373903
Total Pages : 515 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (643 download)
Download or read book Optimal Stopping and Free-Boundary Problems written by Goran Peskir and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-11-10 with total page 515 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book discloses a fascinating connection between optimal stopping problems in probability and free-boundary problems. It focuses on key examples and the theory of optimal stopping is exposed at its basic principles in discrete and continuous time covering martingale and Markovian methods. Methods of solution explained range from change of time, space, and measure, to more recent ones such as local time-space calculus and nonlinear integral equations. A chapter on stochastic processes makes the material more accessible. The book will appeal to those wishing to master stochastic calculus via fundamental examples. Areas of application include financial mathematics, financial engineering, and mathematical statistics.
Author : Thordur Jonasson
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484350545
Total Pages : 133 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book A Primer on Managing Sovereign Debt-Portfolio Risks written by Thordur Jonasson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-06 with total page 133 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides an overview of sovereign debt portfolio risks and discusses various liability management operations (LMOs) and instruments used by public debt managers to mitigate these risks. Debt management strategies analyzed in the context of helping reach debt portfolio targets and attain desired portfolio structures. Also, the paper outlines how LMOs could be integrated into a debt management strategy and serve as policy tools to reduce potential debt portfolio vulnerabilities. Further, the paper presents operational issues faced by debt managers, including the need to develop a risk management framework, interactions of debt management with fiscal policy, monetary policy, and financial stability, as well as efficient government bond markets.
Author : Mr.Cristiano Cantore
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475590180
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)
Download or read book Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management written by Mr.Cristiano Cantore and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-30 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government’s commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary-fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks”, perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds–under commitment–the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long and short-term bonds.
Author : Michael Pettis
Publisher : Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN 13 : 9780195143300
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (433 download)
Download or read book The Volatility Machine written by Michael Pettis and published by Oxford University Press, USA. This book was released on 2001 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a radically different argument for what has caused, and likely will continue to cause, the collapse of emerging market economies. Pettis combines the insights of economic history, economic theory, and finance theory into a comprehensive model for understanding sovereign liability management and the causes of financial crises. He examines recent financial crises in emerging market countries along with the history of international lending since the 1820s to argue that the process of international lending is driven primarily by external events and not by local politics and/or economic policies. He draws out the corporate finance implications of this approach to argue that most of the current analyses of the recent financial crises suffered by Latin America, Asia, and Russia have largely missed the point. He then develops a sovereign finance model, analogous to corporate finance, to understand the capital structure needs of emerging market countries. Using this model, he finally puts into perspective the recent crises, a new sovereign liability management theory, the implications of the model for sovereign debt restructurings, and the new financial architecture. Bridging the gap between finance specialists and traders, on the one hand, and economists and policy-makers on the other, The Volatility Machine is critical reading for anyone interested in where the international economy is going over the next several years.
Author : International Monetary Fund,
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498330665
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)
Download or read book Revised Guidelines for Public Debt Management written by International Monetary Fund, and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-03-11 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Revised Guidelines for Public Debt Management have been developed as part of a broader work program undertaken by the IMF and the World Bank to strengthen the international financial architecture, promote policies and practices that contribute to financial stability and transparency, and reduce countries external vulnerabilities.
Author : Partha Dasgupta
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262041270
Total Pages : 666 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (412 download)
Download or read book Economic Analysis of Markets and Games written by Partha Dasgupta and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1992 with total page 666 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These original essays focus on a wide range of topics related to Frank Hahn'sdistinguished work in economics. Ranging from market analysis and game theory to the microeconomicfoundations of macroeconomics and from equilibrium and optimality with missing markets to economicsand society, they reflect the diversity of modem research in economic theory. What distinguishesHahn's work and many of the essays in this book is that the motivation often comes from practicalconcerns about unemployment, savings and investment, poverty, or the stability of markets.The essaysin Part I deal with the microeconomic foundations of macroeconomics - a field in which Hahn has madeimportant contributions, most notably in the theory of monetary economics. Topics include anevaluation of Hahn's contribution to the theory of distribution and such macroeconomic themes ascoordination failure, multiple equilibria, and strategic issues.Part II contains recentcontributions to game theory reflecting Hahn's interest in the question of what is rationalbehavior. The essays in Part III concentrate on general-equilibrium theory with missing markets, afield in which Hahn has made major advances. Although the essays address a different set of issues,they share with Hahn's works such themes as market failure, indeterminacy of equilibrium, and therole of money.Partha Dasgupta is Professor of Economics at Cambridge University. Douglas Gale isProfessor of Economics at Boston University. Oliver Hart is Professor of Economics at theMassachusetts Institute of Technology. Eric Maskin is Professor of Economics at HarvardUniversity.
Author : A. V. Skorokhod
Publisher : American Mathematical Soc.
ISBN 13 : 9780821898253
Total Pages : 362 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (982 download)
Download or read book Asymptotic Methods in the Theory of Stochastic Differential Equations written by A. V. Skorokhod and published by American Mathematical Soc.. This book was released on 2009-01-07 with total page 362 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Ergodic theorems: General ergodic theorems Densities for transition probabilities and resolvents for Markov solutions of stochastic differential equations Ergodic theorems for one-dimensional stochastic equations Ergodic theorems for solutions of stochastic equations in $R^d$ Asymptotic behavior of systems of stochastic equations containing a small parameter: Equations with a small right-hand side Processes with rapid switching Averaging over variables for systems of stochastic differential equations Stability. Linear systems: Stability of sample paths of homogeneous Markov processes Linear equations in $R^d$ and the stochastic semigroups connected with them. Stability Stability of solutions of stochastic differential equations Linear stochastic equations in Hilbert space. Stochastic semigroups. Stability: Linear equations with bounded coefficients Strong stochastic semigroups with second moments Stability Bibliography
Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451844239
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1998-03-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.
Author : Richard Hemming
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book The Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Stimulating Economic Activity written by Richard Hemming and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2002-12 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical literature on the effectiveness of fiscal policy. The focus is on the size of fiscal multipliers, and on the possibility that multipliers can turn negative (i.e., that fiscal contractions can be expansionary). The paper concludes that fiscal multipliers are overwhelmingly positive but small. However, there is some evidence of negative fiscal multipliers.
Author : Mr.Etibar Jafarov
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 151351248X
Total Pages : 66 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Financial Repression is Knocking at the Door, Again written by Mr.Etibar Jafarov and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-30 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial repression (legal restrictions on interest rates, credit allocation, capital movements, and other financial operations) was widely used in the past but was largely abandoned in the liberalization wave of the 1990s, as widespread support for interventionist policies gave way to a renewed conception of government as an impartial referee. Financial repression has come back on the agenda with the surge in public debt in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, and some countries have reintroduced administrative ceilings on interest rates. By distorting market incentives and signals, financial repression induces losses from inefficiency and rent-seeking that are not easily quantified. This study attempts to assess some of these losses by estimating the impact of financial repression on growth using an updated index of interest rate controls covering 90 countries over 45 years. The results suggest that financial repression poses a significant drag on growth, which could amount to 0.4-0.7 percentage points.
