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Author : Indira Kuruganti
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 392 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (647 download)
Download or read book Optimal Importance Sampling for Simulating Rare Events in Markov Chains written by Indira Kuruganti and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 392 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Gerardo Rubino
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470745410
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (454 download)
Download or read book Rare Event Simulation using Monte Carlo Methods written by Gerardo Rubino and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2009-03-18 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. Graduate students, researchers and practitioners who wish to learn and apply rare event simulation techniques will find this book beneficial.
Author : James Bucklew
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475740786
Total Pages : 262 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book Introduction to Rare Event Simulation written by James Bucklew and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 262 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a unified theory of rare event simulation and the variance reduction technique known as importance sampling from the point of view of the probabilistic theory of large deviations. It allows us to view a vast assortment of simulation problems from a unified single perspective.
Author : Bahar Kaynar
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 23 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (453 download)
Download or read book The Cross-entropy Method with Patching for Rare-event Simulation of Large Markov Chains written by Bahar Kaynar and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Reuven Y. Rubinstein
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118632168
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)
Download or read book Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method written by Reuven Y. Rubinstein and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-11-07 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This accessible new edition explores the major topics in Monte Carlo simulation that have arisen over the past 30 years and presents a sound foundation for problem solving Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Third Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the state-of-the-art theory, methods and applications that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over more than a quarter of a century ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences. The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo, variance reduction techniques such as importance (re-)sampling, and the transform likelihood ratio method, the score function method for sensitivity analysis, the stochastic approximation method and the stochastic counter-part method for Monte Carlo optimization, the cross-entropy method for rare events estimation and combinatorial optimization, and application of Monte Carlo techniques for counting problems. An extensive range of exercises is provided at the end of each chapter, as well as a generous sampling of applied examples. The Third Edition features a new chapter on the highly versatile splitting method, with applications to rare-event estimation, counting, sampling, and optimization. A second new chapter introduces the stochastic enumeration method, which is a new fast sequential Monte Carlo method for tree search. In addition, the Third Edition features new material on: • Random number generation, including multiple-recursive generators and the Mersenne Twister • Simulation of Gaussian processes, Brownian motion, and diffusion processes • Multilevel Monte Carlo method • New enhancements of the cross-entropy (CE) method, including the “improved” CE method, which uses sampling from the zero-variance distribution to find the optimal importance sampling parameters • Over 100 algorithms in modern pseudo code with flow control • Over 25 new exercises Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Third Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in stochastic simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method. Reuven Y. Rubinstein, DSc, was Professor Emeritus in the Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management at Technion-Israel Institute of Technology. He served as a consultant at numerous large-scale organizations, such as IBM, Motorola, and NEC. The author of over 100 articles and six books, Dr. Rubinstein was also the inventor of the popular score-function method in simulation analysis and generic cross-entropy methods for combinatorial optimization and counting. Dirk P. Kroese, PhD, is a Professor of Mathematics and Statistics in the School of Mathematics and Physics of The University of Queensland, Australia. He has published over 100 articles and four books in a wide range of areas in applied probability and statistics, including Monte Carlo methods, cross-entropy, randomized algorithms, tele-traffic c theory, reliability, computational statistics, applied probability, and stochastic modeling.
Download or read book Fast Simulation of Rare Events in Markov Level/phase Processes written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Methods of efficient Monte-Carlo simulation when rare events are involved have been studied for several decades. Rare events are very important in the context of evaluating high quality computer/communication systems. Meanwhile, the efficient simulation of systems involving rare events poses great challenges. A simulation method is said to be efficient if the number of replicas required to get accurate estimates grows slowly, compared to the rate at which the probability of the rare event approaches zero. Despite the great success of the two mainstream methods, importance sampling (IS) and importance splitting, either of them can become inefficient under certain conditions, as reported in some recent studies. The purpose of this study is to look for possible enhancement of fast simulation methods. I focus on the ``level/phase process', a Markov process in which the level and the phase are two state variables. Furthermore, changes of level and phase are induced by events, which have rates that are independent of the level except at a boundary. For such a system, the event of reaching a high level occurs rarely, provided the system typically stays at lower levels. The states at those high levels constitute the rare event set. Though simple, this models a variety of applications involving rare events. In this setting, I have studied two efficient simulation methods, the rate tilting method and the adaptive splitting method, concerning their efficiencies. I have compared the efficiency of rate tilting with several previously used similar methods. The experiments are done by using queues in tandem, an often used test bench for the rare event simulation. The schema of adaptive splitting has not been described in literature. For this method, I have analyzed its efficiency to show its superiority over the (conventional) splitting method. The way that a system approaches a designated rare event set is called the system's large deviation behavior. Toward the end of gaining in.
Author : Nicolas Chopin
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030478459
Total Pages : 378 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)
Download or read book An Introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo written by Nicolas Chopin and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-10-01 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a general introduction to Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters. These methods have become a staple for the sequential analysis of data in such diverse fields as signal processing, epidemiology, machine learning, population ecology, quantitative finance, and robotics. The coverage is comprehensive, ranging from the underlying theory to computational implementation, methodology, and diverse applications in various areas of science. This is achieved by describing SMC algorithms as particular cases of a general framework, which involves concepts such as Feynman-Kac distributions, and tools such as importance sampling and resampling. This general framework is used consistently throughout the book. Extensive coverage is provided on sequential learning (filtering, smoothing) of state-space (hidden Markov) models, as this remains an important application of SMC methods. More recent applications, such as parameter estimation of these models (through e.g. particle Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques) and the simulation of challenging probability distributions (in e.g. Bayesian inference or rare-event problems), are also discussed. The book may be used either as a graduate text on Sequential Monte Carlo methods and state-space modeling, or as a general reference work on the area. Each chapter includes a set of exercises for self-study, a comprehensive bibliography, and a “Python corner,” which discusses the practical implementation of the methods covered. In addition, the book comes with an open source Python library, which implements all the algorithms described in the book, and contains all the programs that were used to perform the numerical experiments.
Author : Dirk P. Kroese
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118014952
Total Pages : 627 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (18 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods written by Dirk P. Kroese and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-06-06 with total page 627 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive overview of Monte Carlo simulation that explores the latest topics, techniques, and real-world applications More and more of today’s numerical problems found in engineering and finance are solved through Monte Carlo methods. The heightened popularity of these methods and their continuing development makes it important for researchers to have a comprehensive understanding of the Monte Carlo approach. Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods provides the theory, algorithms, and applications that helps provide a thorough understanding of the emerging dynamics of this rapidly-growing field. The authors begin with a discussion of fundamentals such as how to generate random numbers on a computer. Subsequent chapters discuss key Monte Carlo topics and methods, including: Random variable and stochastic process generation Markov chain Monte Carlo, featuring key algorithms such as the Metropolis-Hastings method, the Gibbs sampler, and hit-and-run Discrete-event simulation Techniques for the statistical analysis of simulation data including the delta method, steady-state estimation, and kernel density estimation Variance reduction, including importance sampling, latin hypercube sampling, and conditional Monte Carlo Estimation of derivatives and sensitivity analysis Advanced topics including cross-entropy, rare events, kernel density estimation, quasi Monte Carlo, particle systems, and randomized optimization The presented theoretical concepts are illustrated with worked examples that use MATLAB®, a related Web site houses the MATLAB® code, allowing readers to work hands-on with the material and also features the author's own lecture notes on Monte Carlo methods. Detailed appendices provide background material on probability theory, stochastic processes, and mathematical statistics as well as the key optimization concepts and techniques that are relevant to Monte Carlo simulation. Handbook of Monte Carlo Methods is an excellent reference for applied statisticians and practitioners working in the fields of engineering and finance who use or would like to learn how to use Monte Carlo in their research. It is also a suitable supplement for courses on Monte Carlo methods and computational statistics at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Author : Paul Dupuis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (546 download)
Download or read book Adaptive Importance Sampling for Uniformly Recurrent Markov Chains written by Paul Dupuis and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Roman Daniel Fresnedo
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 164 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Quick Simulation of Rare Events in Networks written by Roman Daniel Fresnedo and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 164 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Shaojie Deng
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (664 download)
Download or read book Sequential Methods for Rare Event Simulations written by Shaojie Deng and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We consider rare events modeled as a Markov Chain hitting a certain rare set. A sequential importance sampling with resampling (SISR) method is introduced to provide a versatile approach for computing such probabilities of rare events. The method uses resampling to track the zero-variance importance measure associated with the event of interest. A general methodology for choosing the importance measure and resampling scheme to come up with an efficient estimator of the probability of occurrence of the rare event is developed and the distinction between light-tailed and heavy-tailed problems is highlighted. Applications include classic tail probabilities for sums of independent light-tailed or heavy-tailed random variables. Markovian extensions and simultaneous simulation are also given. The heuristics and the methodology can also be applied to more complex Monte Carlo problems that arise in recent works on the dynamic portfolio credit risk model.
Author : Christian Robert
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1441915753
Total Pages : 297 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (419 download)
Download or read book Introducing Monte Carlo Methods with R written by Christian Robert and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers the main tools used in statistical simulation from a programmer’s point of view, explaining the R implementation of each simulation technique and providing the output for better understanding and comparison.
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 111 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (685 download)
Download or read book Rare Event Simulation in Radiation Transport written by and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 111 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation studies methods for estimating extremely small probabilities by Monte Carlo simulation. Problems in radiation transport typically involve estimating very rare events or the expected value of a random variable which is with overwhelming probability equal to zero. These problems often have high dimensional state spaces and irregular geometries so that analytic solutions are not possible. Monte Carlo simulation must be used to estimate the radiation dosage being transported to a particular location. If the area is well shielded the probability of any one particular particle getting through is very small. Because of the large number of particles involved, even a tiny fraction penetrating the shield may represent an unacceptable level of radiation. It therefore becomes critical to be able to accurately estimate this extremely small probability. Importance sampling is a well known technique for improving the efficiency of rare event calculations. Here, a new set of probabilities is used in the simulation runs. The results are multiple by the likelihood ratio between the true and simulated probabilities so as to keep the estimator unbiased. The variance of the resulting estimator is very sensitive to which new set of transition probabilities are chosen. It is shown that a zero variance estimator does exist, but that its computation requires exact knowledge of the solution. A simple random walk with an associated killing model for the scatter of neutrons is introduced. Large deviation results for optimal importance sampling in random walks are extended to the case where killing is present. An adaptive ''learning'' algorithm for implementing importance sampling is given for more general Markov chain models of neutron scatter. For finite state spaces this algorithm is shown to give with probability one, a sequence of estimates converging exponentially fast to the true solution.
Author : Zdravko I. Botev
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 18 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (767 download)
Download or read book Markov Chain Importance Sampling with Applications to Rare Event Probability Estimation written by Zdravko I. Botev and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Dirk P. Kroese
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470285303
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (72 download)
Download or read book Student Solutions Manual to accompany Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Student Solutions Manual written by Dirk P. Kroese and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-01-20 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This accessible new edition explores the major topics in Monte Carlo simulation Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the major topics that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over twenty-five years ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences. The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo Variance reduction techniques such as the transform likelihood ratio method and the screening method The score function method for sensitivity analysis The stochastic approximation method and the stochastic counter-part method for Monte Carlo optimization The cross-entropy method to rare events estimation and combinatorial optimization Application of Monte Carlo techniques for counting problems, with an emphasis on the parametric minimum cross-entropy method An extensive range of exercises is provided at the end of each chapter, with more difficult sections and exercises marked accordingly for advanced readers. A generous sampling of applied examples is positioned throughout the book, emphasizing various areas of application, and a detailed appendix presents an introduction to exponential families, a discussion of the computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, and sample MATLAB® programs. Requiring only a basic, introductory knowledge of probability and statistics, Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method.
Author : Reuven Y. Rubinstein
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475743211
Total Pages : 316 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)
Download or read book The Cross-Entropy Method written by Reuven Y. Rubinstein and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 316 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rubinstein is the pioneer of the well-known score function and cross-entropy methods. Accessible to a broad audience of engineers, computer scientists, mathematicians, statisticians and in general anyone, theorist and practitioner, who is interested in smart simulation, fast optimization, learning algorithms, and image processing.
Author : Reuven Y. Rubinstein
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118612353
Total Pages : 177 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)
Download or read book Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization written by Reuven Y. Rubinstein and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-11-13 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive account of the theory and application of Monte Carlo methods Based on years of research in efficient Monte Carlo methods for estimation of rare-event probabilities, counting problems, and combinatorial optimization, Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization is a complete illustration of fast sequential Monte Carlo techniques. The book provides an accessible overview of current work in the field of Monte Carlo methods, specifically sequential Monte Carlo techniques, for solving abstract counting and optimization problems. Written by authorities in the field, the book places emphasis on cross-entropy, minimum cross-entropy, splitting, and stochastic enumeration. Focusing on the concepts and application of Monte Carlo techniques, Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization includes: Detailed algorithms needed to practice solving real-world problems Numerous examples with Monte Carlo method produced solutions within the 1-2% limit of relative error A new generic sequential importance sampling algorithm alongside extensive numerical results An appendix focused on review material to provide additional background information Fast Sequential Monte Carlo Methods for Counting and Optimization is an excellent resource for engineers, computer scientists, mathematicians, statisticians, and readers interested in efficient simulation techniques. The book is also useful for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses on Monte Carlo methods.
