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On The Sources And Consequences Of Oil Price Shocks The Role Of Storage
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Book Synopsis On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks by : Deren Unalmis
Download or read book On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks written by Deren Unalmis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-08 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.
Book Synopsis On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks by : Deren Unalmis
Download or read book On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks written by Deren Unalmis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-08 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.
Book Synopsis The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation by : Samya Beidas-Strom
Download or read book Oil Price Volatility and the Role of Speculation written by Samya Beidas-Strom and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.
Book Synopsis News Shocks in Open Economies by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1475540868 Total Pages :14 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (755 download)
Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, December 2012 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, December 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-12-14 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Research Summaries in the December 2012 IMF Research Bulletin look at "Market Failures and Macroprudential Policy" (Giovanni Favara and Lev Ratnovski) and "Measurement Matters for House Price Indices" (Mick Silver). The Q&A column looks at "Seven Questions on Turning Points of the Global Business Cycle." The Bulletin also includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers and Staff Discussion Notes, as well as a list of the top-viewed articles for the first three issues of IMF Economic Review in 2012. Information is also included on a call for papers for the conference "Asia: Challenges of Stability and Growth" to be held in Seoul in 2013.
Book Synopsis Oil, the Economy, and the Stock Market by : Joseph H. Davis
Download or read book Oil, the Economy, and the Stock Market written by Joseph H. Davis and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 20 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We quantify the time-varying effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S. economy, Federal Reserve policy, and global equity markets. While the first-round impact of oil-price shocks on U.S. economic growth has not changed materially over time, their formerly-negative second-round effects are notably absent over the past 25 years given oil's near-zero impact on long-term inflation expectations. Since oil-price shocks now represent a less-stagflationary policy tradeoff, we show why the Federal Reserve should lower short-term interest rates in response to an oil-price shock under certain (but not all) macro scenarios. For domestic and international stocks, simple regressions reveal the anticipated inverse relationship, with a 10% increase in oil prices associated with a statistically significant 1.5% lower total return. However, the stock market's reaction varies dramatically depending on the source of the oil-price shock, with global stocks - in particular the industrial and materials sectors - responding quite favorably to oil-price increases attributed to global-demand shocks. A key implication is that oil-price increases do not uniformly lead to lower stock returns. Interestingly, our oil-price decomposition suggests that oil's recent surge cannot be explained by supply disruptions, global demand fundamentals, or the depreciation of the U.S. dollar.
Book Synopsis Essays on Oil Price Fluctuations and Macroeconomic Activity by : Dommèbèiwin Juste Mètoiolè Somé
Download or read book Essays on Oil Price Fluctuations and Macroeconomic Activity written by Dommèbèiwin Juste Mètoiolè Somé and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy by : Matthias Kalkuhl
Download or read book Food Price Volatility and Its Implications for Food Security and Policy written by Matthias Kalkuhl and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 620 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Shocks by : Nouf Ben Dahmash
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks written by Nouf Ben Dahmash and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Intended and Unintended Effects of U.S. Agricultural and Biotechnology Policies by : Joshua S. Graff Zivin
Download or read book The Intended and Unintended Effects of U.S. Agricultural and Biotechnology Policies written by Joshua S. Graff Zivin and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2012-03-15 with total page 310 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using economic models and empirical analysis, this volume examines a wide range of agricultural and biofuel policy issues and their effects on American agricultural and related agrarian insurance markets. Beginning with a look at the distribution of funds by insurance programs—created to support farmers but often benefiting crop processors instead—the book then examines the demand for biofuel and the effects of biofuel policies on agricultural price uncertainty. Also discussed are genetically engineered crops, which are assuming an increasingly important role in arbitrating tensions between energy production, environmental protection, and the global food supply. Other contributions discuss the major effects of genetic engineering on worldwide food markets. By addressing some of the most challenging topics at the intersection of agriculture and biotechnology, this volume informs crucial debates.
Book Synopsis Commodity Price Dynamics by : Craig Pirrong
Download or read book Commodity Price Dynamics written by Craig Pirrong and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2011-10-31 with total page 239 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Commodities have become an important component of many investors' portfolios and the focus of much political controversy over the past decade. This book utilizes structural models to provide a better understanding of how commodities' prices behave and what drives them. It exploits differences across commodities and examines a variety of predictions of the models to identify where they work and where they fail. The findings of the analysis are useful to scholars, traders and policy makers who want to better understand often puzzling - and extreme - movements in the prices of commodities from aluminium to oil to soybeans to zinc.
Book Synopsis Hidden Costs of Energy by : National Research Council
Download or read book Hidden Costs of Energy written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-05-26 with total page 506 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite the many benefits of energy, most of which are reflected in energy market prices, the production, distribution, and use of energy causes negative effects. Many of these negative effects are not reflected in energy market prices. When market failures like this occur, there may be a case for government interventions in the form of regulations, taxes, fees, tradable permits, or other instruments that will motivate recognition of these external or hidden costs. The Hidden Costs of Energy defines and evaluates key external costs and benefits that are associated with the production, distribution, and use of energy, but are not reflected in market prices. The damage estimates presented are substantial and reflect damages from air pollution associated with electricity generation, motor vehicle transportation, and heat generation. The book also considers other effects not quantified in dollar amounts, such as damages from climate change, effects of some air pollutants such as mercury, and risks to national security. While not a comprehensive guide to policy, this analysis indicates that major initiatives to further reduce other emissions, improve energy efficiency, or shift to a cleaner electricity generating mix could substantially reduce the damages of external effects. A first step in minimizing the adverse consequences of new energy technologies is to better understand these external effects and damages. The Hidden Costs of Energy will therefore be a vital informational tool for government policy makers, scientists, and economists in even the earliest stages of research and development on energy technologies.
Book Synopsis Oil Shocks and External Balances by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Oil Shocks and External Balances written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-05-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the effects of demand and supply shocks in the global crude oil market on several measures of countries' external balance, including the oil and non-oil trade balances, the current account, and changes in net foreign assets (NFA) during 1975-2004. We explicitly take a global perspective. In addition to the U.S., the Euro area and Japan, we consider a number of country groups including oil exporters and middle-income oil-importing economies. We find that the effect of oil shocks on the merchandise trade balance and the current account, which depending on the source of the shock can be large, depends critically on the response of the nonoil trade balance, and differs systematically between the U.S. and other oil importing countries. Using the Lane-Milesi-Ferretti NFA data set, we document the presence of large and systematic (if not always statistically significant) valuation effects in response to oil shocks, not only for the U.S., but also for other oil-importing economies and for oil exporters. Our estimates suggest that increased international financial integration will tend to cushion the effect of oil shocks on NFA positions for major oil exporters and the U.S., but may amplify it for other oil importers.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Selling the Federal Helium Reserve by : National Research Council
Download or read book The Impact of Selling the Federal Helium Reserve written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2000-06-18 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Helium Privatization Act of 1996 (P.L. 104-273) directs the Department of the Interior to begin liquidating the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve by 2005 in a manner consistent with "minimum market disruption" and at a price given by a formula specified in the act. It also mandates that the Department of the Interior "enter into appropriate arrangements with the National Academy of Sciences to study and report on whether such disposal of helium reserves will have a substantial adverse effect on U.S. scientific, technical, biomedical, or national security interests." This report is the product of that mandate. To provide context, the committee has examined the helium market and the helium industry as a whole to determine how helium users would be affected under various scenarios for selling the reserve within the act's constraints. The Federal Helium Reserve, the Bush Dome reservoir, and the Cliffside facility are mentioned throughout this report. It is important to recognize that they are distinct entities. The Federal Helium Reserve is federally owned crude helium gas that currently resides in the Bush Dome reservoir. The Cliffside facility includes the storage facility on the Bush Dome reservoir and the associated buildings pipeline.
Book Synopsis Energy Markets and Economics Ⅱ by : Seema Narayan
Download or read book Energy Markets and Economics Ⅱ written by Seema Narayan and published by MDPI. This book was released on 2020-12-29 with total page 190 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This issue brings together a collection of papers that provide economic insights into the modern energy market, which is still dominated by crude oil but has expanded to incorporate new energy sources in the form of coal, natural gas, and a mixture of renewable energy sources. Given the differences in the dynamics at play with different energy sources, particularly in relation to price determination, the impact they have on the environment, their importance in the energy mix and energy policy, and so forth, it has become imperative to check their behavior using economic models. Papers 1–3 provide some perspective on oil price determination by focusing on the time-varying nature of supply shocks linked to oil producers (Paper 1), OPEC’s announcements (2), and the heterogeneous interconnections of supply or demand shocks over time horizons and different countries (3). Papers 4–6 compare different energy sources within the energy market and other markets (4); explore the importance of energy storage in the electricity market (5); and examine the dynamic relationship between prices of substitutes (oil price) on the natural gas market in China (6). The final four studies examine the impact of renewable and nonrenewable energy on the macroeconomy and the environment.
Book Synopsis Taking Control of Oil by : Asian Development Bank
Download or read book Taking Control of Oil written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2009-12-01 with total page 134 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This publication provides a comprehensive assessment of recent global oil price trends, the exposure of Pacific developing member countries to oil price increases and its implications for social and economic development in the region. It also offers a number of policy options for managing risks associated with heavy dependence on oil imports and proposes a path for diversifying the energy mix in Pacific developing member countries.
