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On The Reliability Of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts
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Book Synopsis On the Reliability of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts by : Robert Schmidt
Download or read book On the Reliability of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts written by Robert Schmidt and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the Ĩ/US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to a large extend influenced by actual changes in exchange rates. A reasonable explanation for this behaviour can be derived from the behavioural finance literature. According to the anchoring heuristic decision processes are often dominated by available pieces of information even if they are obviously of no relevance.
Book Synopsis Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? An Empirical Analysis of Professional Forecasts for the Eur/Us-$ Rate by : Peter Bofinger
Download or read book Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? An Empirical Analysis of Professional Forecasts for the Eur/Us-$ Rate written by Peter Bofinger and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study analyses the characteristics of professional exchange rate forecasts for the E/US-$ rate. The results indicate that the quality of forecasts produced by professional economists is rather poor and incompatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. This dismal result is according to our analysis attributed to the fact that professional forecasts are to a large extend influenced by actual changes in exchange rates. A reasonable explanation for this behaviour can be derived from the behavioural finance literature. According to the anchoring heuristic decision processes are often dominated by available pieces of information even if they are obviously of no relevance.
Book Synopsis Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? by : Peter Bofinger
Download or read book Should One Rely on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts? written by Peter Bofinger and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 18 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Bias of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts by : Peter Bofinger
Download or read book Bias of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts written by Peter Bofinger and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-05-01 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. The first half addresses a number of key questions regarding the forecasts of future exchange rates made by market participants, by means of updated estimates using survey data. Here we follow most of the theoretical and empirical literature in acting as if all market participants share the same expectation. The second half then addresses the possibility of heterogeneous expectations, particularly the distinction between “chartists” and “fundamentalists,” and the implications for trading in the foreign exchange market and for the formation of speculative bubbles.
Book Synopsis A Systematic Comparison of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts with Judgmental Forecasts of Novices - are There Substantial Differences? by : Johannes Leitner
Download or read book A Systematic Comparison of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts with Judgmental Forecasts of Novices - are There Substantial Differences? written by Johannes Leitner and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts of novices. In search of reasonable explanations for the astonishing result, we evaluate the nature of professional and experimental expectations in more detail and find that while professional exchange rate forecasts seem to be biased predictors for the future exchange rates, judgmental forecasts appear to be unbiased. Furthermore, professional forecasters consistently expect a reversal of forgoing exchange rate changes whereas novices expect a continuation of current movements in the short-run and are reversed in the long-run.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Uncertainty on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts by : Joscha Beckmann
Download or read book The Impact of Uncertainty on Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts written by Joscha Beckmann and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Currency Forecasting by : Michael Roy Rosenberg
Download or read book Currency Forecasting written by Michael Roy Rosenberg and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 408 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text explains the methods and aspects of exchange rate forecasting, including purchasing power, parity, interest rate differentials and technical analysis. Guidelines for reducing risk with forecasting strategies are included, as are techniques for co
Book Synopsis Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting by : Mr.Guy Meredith
Download or read book Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting written by Mr.Guy Meredith and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-01-01 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The medium-term predictability of exchange rate movements is examined using three models of fundamentals: purchasing power parity, the monetary model, and uncovered interest parity. While the first two approaches yield favorable in-sample results, these largely reflect finite-sample estimation biases. Adjusting for these biases, there is little evidence of predictability, consistent with the lack of systematic improvement in out-of-sample forecasting performance relative to a random walk. Uncovered interest parity fares better at long horizons, but reflects information already embodied in market prices; in this sense, it may not be useful as an indicator of exchange rate misalignment. While more elaborate models of fundamentals might have better medium-term forecasting properties, careful attention must be paid to finite-sample biases in assessing predictability.
Book Synopsis Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts by : Peter Bofinger
Download or read book Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts written by Peter Bofinger and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecast by : Michael B. Devereux
Download or read book Consumption and Real Exchange Rates in Professional Forecast written by Michael B. Devereux and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate by : Mr.Mark P. Taylor
Download or read book The Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate written by Mr.Mark P. Taylor and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1992-05-01 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We re-examine the monetary approach to the exchange rate from a number of perspectives, using monthly data on the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate. Using the Campbell-Shiller technique for testing present value models, we reject the restrictions imposed upon the data by the forward-looking rational expectations monetary model. We demonstrate, however, that the monetary model is validated as a long-run equilibrium condition. Moreover, imposing the long-run monetary model restrictions in a dynamic error correction framework leads to exchange rate forecasts which are superior to those generated by a random walk forecasting model.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Determination by : Michael Rosenberg
Download or read book Exchange Rate Determination written by Michael Rosenberg and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2003-05-19 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Models and Strategies for Exchange Rate ForecastingMichael R. RosenbergGetting an accurate exchange rate is critical for any company doing business in today's global economy. Exchange Rate Determination--written by the number one-ranked foreign exchange team in the world--examines the methods used to accurately and profitably forecast foreign exchange rates. This hands-on guidebook uses extensive charts and tables to examine currency option markets, productivity trends and exchange rates; technical analysis methods to improve currency forecasting accuracy; and more.
Book Synopsis Demystifying the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle by : I. Moosa
Download or read book Demystifying the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle written by I. Moosa and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-12-17 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For the past 30 years international monetary economists have believed that exchange rate models cannot outperform the random walk in out-of-sample forecasting as a result of the 1983 paper written by Richard Meese and Kenneth Rogoff. Marking the culmination of their extensive research into the Meese-Rogoff puzzle, Moosa and Burns challenge the orthodoxy by demonstrating that the naïve random walk model can be outperformed by exchange rate models when forecasting accuracy is measured by metrics that do not rely exclusively on the magnitude of forecasting error. The authors present compelling evidence, supported by their own measure: the 'adjusted root mean square error', to finally solve the Meese-Rogoff puzzle and provide a new alternative. Demystifying the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle will appeal to academics with an interest in exchange rate economics and international monetary economics. It will also be a useful resource for central banks and financial institutions.
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Expectations by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Exchange Rate Expectations written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1990-06-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a brief survey of the empirical literature on survey-based exchange rate expectations. The literature in general supports the presence of a non-zero risk premium and rejects the hypothesis of rational expectations. The crucial result is that, while short-run expectations tend to move away from some long-run “normal” values, long-run expectations tend to regress toward them. If this nature of short-run expectations increases the volatility of exchange rate movements, there may be a basis for some official measure to minimize short-run exchange rate movements.
Book Synopsis Professional vs Amateur Judgment Accuracy by : J. Frank Yates
Download or read book Professional vs Amateur Judgment Accuracy written by J. Frank Yates and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Highly knowledgeable people often fail to achieve highly accurate judgments, a phenomenon sometimes called the ''processperformance paradox.'' The present research tested for this paradox in foreign exchange (FX) rate forecasting. Forty professional and 57 sophisticated amateur forecasters made one-day and one-week-ahead FX predictions in deterministic and probabilistic formats. Among the conclusions indicated by the results are: (a) professional accuracy usually surpasses amateur accuracy, although many amateurs outperform many professionals; (b) professionals appear to achieve high proficiency via heavy reliance on predictive information (unlike what has been observed before, e.g., for stock prices); (c) forecast format strongly affects judgment accuracy and processes; and (d) apparent overconfidence can transform itself into underconfidence depending on when and how forecasters must articulate their confidence.
Book Synopsis ACCA Paper P1 - Professional Accountant Practice and Revision Kit by : BPP Learning Media
Download or read book ACCA Paper P1 - Professional Accountant Practice and Revision Kit written by BPP Learning Media and published by BPP Learning Media. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 377 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Association of Chartered Certified Accountants (ACCA) is the global body for professional accountants. With over 100 years of providing world-class accounting and finance qualifications, the ACCA has significantly raised its international profile in recent years and now supports a BSc (Hons) in Applied Accounting and an MBA.BPP Learning Media is an ACCA Official Publisher. The P1 Professional Accountant exam is based on the themes of professionalism, responsibility and accountability. The syllabus emphasises what is important for a well-run organisation and illustrates the factors underpinning professional behaviour by accountants: * Corporate governance arrangements should ensure that the organisation functions smoothly and directors and managers are accountable * Corporate governance requires sound systems of internal control and risk management * Accountants should think carefully about what their ethical positions are and what views of society their professional opinions support * Accountants and businesses should be aware of the social and environmental impacts their activities have.The P1 Practice and Revision Kit contains invaluable guidance on how to tackle the exam. It focuses on what you should look for in questions on different syllabus areas and what question requirements are asking you to do. The questions the Kit provides enable you to put these skills into practice, as they reflect the types of scenario, question requirements and breadth of coverage that we expect to see in the exam. The Kit includes all the illustrative questions issued by the examiner. BPP Learning Media is the publisher of choice for many ACCA students and tuition providers worldwide. Join them and plug into a world of expertise in ACCA exams.
