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On The Long Run Calibration Of The Credit To Gdp Gap As A Banking Crisis Predictor
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Book Synopsis How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries by : Chikako Baba
Download or read book How Should Credit Gaps Be Measured? An Application to European Countries written by Chikako Baba and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-01-17 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assessing when credit is excessive is important to understand macro-financial vulnerabilities and guide macroprudential policy. The Basel Credit Gap (BCG) – the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its long-term trend estimated with a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott (HP) filter—is the indicator preferred by the Basel Committee because of its good performance as an early warning of banking crises. However, for a number of European countries this indicator implausibly suggests that credit should go back to its level at the peak of the boom after the credit cycle turns, resulting in large negative gaps that might delay the activation of macroprudential policies. We explore two different approaches—a multivariate filter based on economic theory and a fundamentals-based panel regression. Each approach has pros and cons, but they both provide a useful complement to the BCG in assessing macro-financial vulnerabilities in Europe.
Book Synopsis Conceptual Issues in Calibrating the Basel III Countercyclical Capital Buffer by : Torsten Wezel
Download or read book Conceptual Issues in Calibrating the Basel III Countercyclical Capital Buffer written by Torsten Wezel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-05-01 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper discusses issues in calibrating the countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) based on a sample of EU countries. It argues that the main indicator for buffer decisions under the Basel III framework, the credit-to-GDP gap, does not always work best in terms of covering bank loan losses that go beyond what could be expected from economic downturns. Instead, in the case of countries with short financial cycles and/or low financial deepening such as transition and developing economies, the Basel gap is shown to work best when computed with a low, smoothing factor and adjusted for the degree of financial deepening. The paper also analyzes issues in calibrating an appropriate size of the CCB and, using a loss function approach, points to a tradeoff between stability of the buffer size and cost efficiency considerations.
Book Synopsis The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability by : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
Download or read book The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-27 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.
Book Synopsis Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy - Background Paper by : International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept.
Download or read book Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy - Background Paper written by International Monetary Fund. Fiscal Affairs Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-06 with total page 64 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The countercyclical capital buffer (CCB) was proposed by the Basel committee to increase the resilience of the banking sector to negative shocks. The interactions between banking sector losses and the real economy highlight the importance of building a capital buffer in periods when systemic risks are rising. Basel III introduces a framework for a time-varying capital buffer on top of the minimum capital requirement and another time-invariant buffer (the conservation buffer). The CCB aims to make banks more resilient against imbalances in credit markets and thereby enhance medium-term prospects of the economy—in good times when system-wide risks are growing, the regulators could impose the CCB which would help the banks to withstand losses in bad times.
Book Synopsis Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries
Book Synopsis Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries by : Daniela Marchettini
Download or read book Systemic Risk Assessment in Low Income Countries written by Daniela Marchettini and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-08-12 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a toolkit for the assessment of systemic risk buildup in low income countries. We show that, due to non-linearity in the relationship between credit and financial stability, the assessment should be conducted with different tools at different stages of financial development. In particular, when the level of financial depth is low, traditional leading indicators of banking crises have poor predictive performance and the analysis should be based on indicators that account for financial deepening while taking into consideration countries’ structural limits. By using this framework, we provide a preliminary assessment of systemic risk buildup in individual SSA countries.
Book Synopsis Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises? by : Ms. Sally Chen
Download or read book Financial Cycles – Early Warning Indicators of Banking Crises? written by Ms. Sally Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-04-29 with total page 79 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Can the upturns and downturns in financial variables serve as early warning indicators of banking crises? Using data from 59 advanced and emerging economies, we show that financial overheating can be detected in real time. Equity prices and output gap are the best leading indicators in advanced markets; in emerging markets, these are equity and property prices and credit gap. Moreover, aggregating this information flags financial crisis many years before the crisis. Lastly, we find that the length of financial cycles is of medium-term frequency, calling into question the longer frequency widely used in the estimation of countercyclical capital buffers.
Book Synopsis The Chicago Plan Revisited by : Mr.Jaromir Benes
Download or read book The Chicago Plan Revisited written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 71 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: At the height of the Great Depression a number of leading U.S. economists advanced a proposal for monetary reform that became known as the Chicago Plan. It envisaged the separation of the monetary and credit functions of the banking system, by requiring 100% reserve backing for deposits. Irving Fisher (1936) claimed the following advantages for this plan: (1) Much better control of a major source of business cycle fluctuations, sudden increases and contractions of bank credit and of the supply of bank-created money. (2) Complete elimination of bank runs. (3) Dramatic reduction of the (net) public debt. (4) Dramatic reduction of private debt, as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation. We study these claims by embedding a comprehensive and carefully calibrated model of the banking system in a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. We find support for all four of Fisher's claims. Furthermore, output gains approach 10 percent, and steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy.
Book Synopsis Inequality, Leverage and Crises by : Mr.Michael Kumhof
Download or read book Inequality, Leverage and Crises written by Mr.Michael Kumhof and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-11-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper studies how high leverage and crises can arise as a result of changes in the income distribution. Empirically, the periods 1920-1929 and 1983-2008 both exhibited a large increase in the income share of the rich, a large increase in leverage for the remainder, and an eventual financial and real crisis. The paper presents a theoretical model where these features arise endogenously as a result of a shift in bargaining powers over incomes. A financial crisis can reduce leverage if it is very large and not accompanied by a real contraction. But restoration of the lower income group's bargaining power is more effective.
Book Synopsis Dynamic Linear Models with R by : Giovanni Petris
Download or read book Dynamic Linear Models with R written by Giovanni Petris and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-06-12 with total page 258 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: State space models have gained tremendous popularity in recent years in as disparate fields as engineering, economics, genetics and ecology. After a detailed introduction to general state space models, this book focuses on dynamic linear models, emphasizing their Bayesian analysis. Whenever possible it is shown how to compute estimates and forecasts in closed form; for more complex models, simulation techniques are used. A final chapter covers modern sequential Monte Carlo algorithms. The book illustrates all the fundamental steps needed to use dynamic linear models in practice, using R. Many detailed examples based on real data sets are provided to show how to set up a specific model, estimate its parameters, and use it for forecasting. All the code used in the book is available online. No prior knowledge of Bayesian statistics or time series analysis is required, although familiarity with basic statistics and R is assumed.
Book Synopsis Banks and Capital Requirements by : Benjamin H. Cohen
Download or read book Banks and Capital Requirements written by Benjamin H. Cohen and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Evaluating the Net Benefits of Macroprudential Policy by : Mr.Nicolas Arregui
Download or read book Evaluating the Net Benefits of Macroprudential Policy written by Mr.Nicolas Arregui and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-07-17 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper proposes a simple, new, analytical framework for assessing the cost and benefits of macroprudential policies. It proposes a measure of net benefits in terms of parameters that can be estimated: the probability of crisis, the loss in output given crisis, policy effectiveness in bringing down both the probability and damage during crisis, and the output-cost of a policy decision. It discusses three types of policy leakages and identifies instruments that could best minimize the leakages. Some rules of thumb for policymakers are provided.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1498339174 Total Pages :33 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (983 download)
Book Synopsis Macroprudential Policy - An Organizing Framework - Background Paper by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Macroprudential Policy - An Organizing Framework - Background Paper written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-03-14 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: MCM conducted a survey in December 2010 to take stock of international experiences with financial stability and the evolving macroprudential policy framework. The survey was designed to seek information in three broad areas: the institutional setup for macroprudential policy, the analytical approach to systemic risk monitoring, and the macroprudential policy toolkit. The survey was sent to 63 countries and the European Central Bank (ECB), including all countries in the G-20 and those subject to mandatory Financial Sector Assessment Programs (FSAPs). The target list is designed to cover a broad range of jurisdictions in all regions, but more weight is given to economies that are systemically important (see Annex for details). The response rate is 80 percent. This note provides a summary of the survey’s main findings.
Book Synopsis Stress Testing at the IMF by : Mr.Tobias Adrian
Download or read book Stress Testing at the IMF written by Mr.Tobias Adrian and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-05 with total page 73 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explains specifics of stress testing at the IMF. After a brief section on the evolution of stress tests at the IMF, the paper presents the key steps of an IMF staff stress test. They are followed by a discussion on how IMF staff uses stress tests results for policy advice. The paper concludes by identifying remaining challenges to make stress tests more useful for the monitoring of financial stability and an overview of IMF staff work program in that direction. Stress tests help assess the resilience of financial systems in IMF member countries and underpin policy advice to preserve or restore financial stability. This assessment and advice are mainly provided through the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). IMF staff also provide technical assistance in stress testing to many its member countries. An IMF macroprudential stress test is a methodology to assess financial vulnerabilities that can trigger systemic risk and the need of systemwide mitigating measures. The definition of systemic risk as used by the IMF is relevant to understanding the role of its stress tests as tools for financial surveillance and the IMF’s current work program. IMF stress tests primarily apply to depository intermediaries, and, systemically important banks.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484338294 Total Pages :152 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, April 2018 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, April 2018 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-18 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2018 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) finds that short-term risks to financial stability have increased somewhat since the previous GFSR. Medium-term risks are still elevated as financial vulnerabilities, which have built up during the years of accommodative policies, could mean a bumpy road ahead and put growth at risk. This GFSR also examines the short- and medium-term implications for downside risks to growth and financial stability of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation. It documents the cyclical nature of the riskiness of corporate credit allocation at the global and country levels and its sensitivity to financial conditions, lending standards, and policy and institutional settings. Another chapter analyzes whether and how house prices move in tandem across countries and major cities around the world—that is, global house price synchronicity.
Book Synopsis Resolving Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis by : Luc Eyraud
Download or read book Resolving Nonperforming Loans in Sub-Saharan Africa in the Aftermath of the COVID-19 Crisis written by Luc Eyraud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-06-08 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Sub-Saharan African countries are facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that is likely to severely hurt credit quality and raise non-performing loans from already high levels. Banks have a critical role to play not only during the crisis by providing temporarily relief to businesses and households, but also during the recovery by supporting economic activity and facilitating the structural transformations engaged by the pandemic.
Book Synopsis Policies for Macrofinancial Stability by : Mr.Bas B. Bakker
Download or read book Policies for Macrofinancial Stability written by Mr.Bas B. Bakker and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-06-07 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note explores the costs and benefits of different policy options to reduce the risks associated with credit booms, drawing upon several country experiences and the findings from econometric analysis.
