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Okun In The Euro New Evidence From Structural Okun Laws Estimates For The Euro Area 1979 2019
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Book Synopsis Okun in the Euro: New Evidence from Structural Okun Law’s Estimates for the Euro Area, 1979-2019 by : Nauro F. Campos
Download or read book Okun in the Euro: New Evidence from Structural Okun Law’s Estimates for the Euro Area, 1979-2019 written by Nauro F. Campos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-08-09 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new estimates of Okun’s unemployment-output relationship in euro area countries between 1979 and 2019. We find our structural estimates are stable but substantially lower than the reduced-form estimates that tend to characterise the literature and that the responsiveness of output to unemployment is driven by idiosyncratic factors in both euro core and periphery countries. The results are robust to conditioning on wage bargaining institutional set-ups and, yet, in the euro periphery, we find product market regulation as playing a major role in explaining the significance of Okun’s law estimates across countries.
Book Synopsis The Robustness of Okun's Law by : Jim Lee
Download or read book The Robustness of Okun's Law written by Jim Lee and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates the robustness of the Okun relationship based on postwar data for 16 OECD countries. While Okun's law is statistically valid for most countries, the quantitative as opposed to qualitative estimates are far from uniform. Estimates are also sensitive to the choice of models, including the first-difference and the "gap" specifications, the relevant data for the latter are constructed alternatively from the HP filter, the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition procedure, and the Kalman filter based on the NAIRU framework. There is mixed evidence of asymmetric behavior, but strong evidence of structural breaks occurring around the 1970s, after which time most countries began to experience a smaller output loss associated with higher unemployment.
Download or read book Disaggregating Okun's Law written by and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Okun's Law written by Laurence M. Ball and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-01-14 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper asks how well Okun’s Law fits short-run unemployment movements in the United States since 1948 and in twenty advanced economies since 1980. We find that Okun’s Law isa strong and stable relationship in most countries, one that did not change substantiallyduring the Great Recession. Accounts of breakdowns in the Law, such as the emergence of“jobless recoveries,” are flawed. We also find that the coefficient in the relationship—the effect of a one percent change in output on the unemployment rate—varies substantially across countries. This variation is partly explained by idiosyncratic features of national labormarkets, but it is not related to differences in employment protection legislation.
Book Synopsis Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups by : Zidong An
Download or read book Okun's Law, Development, and Demographics: Differences in the Cyclical Sensitivities of Unemployment Across Economy and Worker Groups written by Zidong An and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The negative and stable relationship between an economy’s aggregate demand conditions and overall unemployment is well-documented. We show that there is a large degree of heterogeneity in the cyclical sensitivities of unemployment across worker and economy groups. First, unemployment is more than twice as sensitive to aggregate demand in advanced as in emerging market and developing economies. Second, youth’s unemployment is twice as sensitive as that of adults’. Third, women’s unemployment is significantly less sensitive to demand than men’s in advanced economies. These findings point to the highly unequal impacts of the business cycle across worker and economy groups.
Book Synopsis Rolling Regression Versus Time-Varying Coefficient Modelling by : Luca Zanin
Download or read book Rolling Regression Versus Time-Varying Coefficient Modelling written by Luca Zanin and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last decade, economists have shown that the inverse relationship between economic growth and unemployment rate varies over time. Rolling regression has been the main tool used to quantify such a relationship. This methodology suffers from several well-known problems which lead to spurious non-linear patterns in the Okun's coefficient behaviour over time. Here, we take a penalized regression spline approach to estimate the Okun's time-varying effects. As a result, spurious non-linearities are suppressed and hence important time-varying coefficient features revealed. Our empirical results show that the inverse relationship in some Euro area countries is spatially heterogeneous and time-varying. The findings are complemented by the calculation of the rate of output growth needed for a stable unemployment rate, as proposed by Knotek.
Book Synopsis An Examination of Okun's Law by : Nicholas Apergis
Download or read book An Examination of Okun's Law written by Nicholas Apergis and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates Okun's coefficient for certain regional areas in Greece over the period 1960-1997. Through the Hordic-Prescott filtering anf the band-pass filtering the empirical analysis shows that the coefficient do not exhibits substantial interregional differences, exept for the case of Epirus and North Aegean Ilands.
Download or read book Okun's Law written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Okun's Law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). Empirical estimates for US data indicate that a two to three percent GDP growth rate above the natural or average GDP growth rate causes unemployment to decrease by one percentage point and vice versa. In this investigation we check whether this postulated relationship exhibits structural breaks by means of Markov-Chain Monte Carlo methods. We estimate a regression model, where the parameters are allowed to switch between different states and the switching process is Markov. As a by-product we derive an estimate of the current state within the periods considered. Using quarterly Austrian data on unemployment and real GDP from 1977 to 1995 we infer only one state, i.e. there are no structural breaks. The estimated parameters demand for an excess GDP growth rate of 4.16% to decrease unemployment by one percentage point. Since only one state is inferred, we conclude that the Austrian economy exhibits a stable relationship between unemployment and GDP growth. (author's abstract).
Book Synopsis The Heterogeneity of Okun's Law by : M. Sylvina Porras-Arena
Download or read book The Heterogeneity of Okun's Law written by M. Sylvina Porras-Arena and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Okun's law is an extremely influential parameter in empirical research and policy analysis, based on the sizable number of estimates from this perspective. Nevertheless, it is also subject to considerable heterogeneity. We first show graphical and statistical evidence on the existence of a high level of heterogeneity among Okun's law estimates in existing research, then analyze potential sources of heterogeneity. Using 1,213 estimates of Okun's law for various countries, regions, and time periods, separate metaregressions are estimated; one using estimates with the unemployment rate as the dependent variable, and the other with output as the dependent variable. Our findings indicate that the specification of the underlying model of the relationship has an effect on the magnitude of Okun's parameter. Differential labor market characteristics may also explain part of the observed heterogeneity. Finally, the results are also found to be influenced by methodological issues, such as the type of data (time series or panel data), the frequency of the data (annual or quarterly), the spatial coverage of the estimates (country, region, or group of countries), whether more variables are included in estimations, and whether a dynamic or static, symmetric or asymmetric model is estimated. This paper contributes to highlight the heterogeneity affecting the estimates of Okun's law and that needs to be taken into account. In order to know the "true" relationship between unemployment and economic growth, researchers should bear in mind that there are a number of methodological choices that have consequences for the results.
Book Synopsis Investigating Okun's Law by the Structural Break with Threshold Approach by : Ho-Chuan Huang
Download or read book Investigating Okun's Law by the Structural Break with Threshold Approach written by Ho-Chuan Huang and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study proposes a structural change with threshold approach to re-evaluate the empirical validity of Okun's law using data from Canada. Based on the Hodrick-Prescott and band-pass filtered data, we find strong support of structural change as well as threshold nonlinearity. This suggests that the use of purely linear specifications for analyzing Okun's law may lead to misleading results. The implications of the empirical results for macroeconomic policy are also briefly discussed.
Book Synopsis A State-level Analysis of Okun's Law by :
Download or read book A State-level Analysis of Okun's Law written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Phillips Curve in the Euro Area by : Susanne Wellmann
Download or read book The Phillips Curve in the Euro Area written by Susanne Wellmann and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study whether the trade-off between inflation and unemployment still exists in the euro area (EA). Using country-level data for member states of the EA, we estimate a refined specification of the Phillips curve in the spirit of Hazell et al. (2022) deploying a non-tradable price index to measure inflation. We find that the slope of the Phillips curve is small and hence the Phillips curve is flat in the EA, similarly to the US. Moreover, reference estimates based on aggregate data overstate the steepness of the Phillips curve considerably. Our findings imply that the insensitivity of inflation with respect to unemployment over the last decade is a result of firmly anchored inflation expectations.
Book Synopsis A Cross-country Study on Okun's Law by :
Download or read book A Cross-country Study on Okun's Law written by and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Okun's Law postulates an inverse relationship between movements of the unemployment rate and the real gross domestic product (GDP). In this article we investigate Okun's law for 15 OECD countries and check for its structural stability. By using data on employment and the labor force we infer whether structural instability is caused either from the the demand side or the supply side. (author's abstract).
Book Synopsis Testing for Convergence of the Okun's Law Coefficient in Europe by : Roger Perman
Download or read book Testing for Convergence of the Okun's Law Coefficient in Europe written by Roger Perman and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Did Okun's Law Die After the Great Recession? by : Giorgio Canarella
Download or read book Did Okun's Law Die After the Great Recession? written by Giorgio Canarella and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes an empirical framework to estimate Okun's law which focuses on structural breaks and threshold nonlinearity. We use sequentially the Bai and Perron's (1998, 2003) structural break and threshold methodology to enable regime-dependent as well as threshold-dependent changes in the unemployment rate. We employ an autoregressive distributed lag version of Okun's law in first differences, which allows for delayed reactions of the unemployment rate to output changes. Applied to US data (1948Q1-2015Q4), the empirical analysis characterize Okun's law as a three-regime relationship with the first break coinciding with the 1973 oil shock, and the second break immediately following the end of the Great Recession. In the post-Great Recession regime, we find that Okun's law breaks down as a linear relationship. This result assumes a linear and symmetric relationship between changes in the unemployment rate and real output. We test this assumption for each of the identified regimes using threshold estimation and recognize a threshold within each regime, which rejects the linearity and symmetry hypotheses and, thus, suggests that Okun's law follows a more complex nonlinear asymmetric dynamics. Importantly, when we apply threshold estimation to the post-Great Recession regime, we find that the time-honored link between output growth and the unemployment rate still holds.
Book Synopsis Core Inflation in the Euro Area by : Elke Hahn
Download or read book Core Inflation in the Euro Area written by Elke Hahn and published by . This book was released on 2001 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
