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Oil Shock Effects And The Business Cycle
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Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Book Synopsis Oil Shock Effects and the Business Cycle by : Collin Jones
Download or read book Oil Shock Effects and the Business Cycle written by Collin Jones and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses a linear projection method proposed by Jorda (2005) to model how the United States business cycle affects the response of output to positive oil price shocks. I use a nonlinear specification for oil price increases, intro- duced by Lee, Ni, and Ratti (1995), which internalizes a number of popular theories in the macroeconomic literature for the determinants of the magni- tude of the oil-output response. I first confirm the results of Lee, Ni, and Ratti (1995), that conditional expected volatility of oil price predictions at the time are important for the output response, with more recent data and an alternate estimation framework. Using a model that allows for coefficient state- switching between periods of low and high output growth, I show that output may be more vulnerable to unexpected oil price increases in the quarters immediately preceding NBER recession periods, although output still does not appear more vulnerable in the recession itself. I lastly discuss what these results indicate regarding possible interpretations of several popular theories of the oil-output response mechanism.
Book Synopsis News Shocks in Open Economies by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Book Synopsis On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks by : Deren Unalmis
Download or read book On the Sources and Consequences of Oil Price Shocks written by Deren Unalmis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-11-08 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Building on recent work on the role of speculation and inventories in oil markets, we embed a competitive oil storage model within a DSGE model of the U.S. economy. This enables us to formally analyze the impact of a (speculative) storage demand shock and to assess how the effects of various demand and supply shocks change in the presence of oil storage facility. We find that business-cycle driven oil demand shocks are the most important drivers of U.S. oil price fluctuations during 1982-2007. Disregarding the storage facility in the model causes a considerable upward bias in the estimated role of oil supply shocks in driving oil price fluctuations. Our results also confirm that a change in the composition of shocks helps explain the resilience of the macroeconomic environment to the oil price surge after 2003. Finally, speculative storage is shown to have a mitigating or amplifying role depending on the nature of the shock.
Book Synopsis Oil Prices and the Global Economy by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Book Synopsis Business Cycles by : Stephen Paul Adolph Brown
Download or read book Business Cycles written by Stephen Paul Adolph Brown and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Oil price shocks have figured prominently in U.S. business cycles since the end of World War II--although the relationship seems to have weakened during the 1990s. In addition the economy appears to respond asymmetrically to oil price shocks, rising oil prices hurt economic activity more than falling oil prices help it. This section of the Encyclopedia of Energy sorts through an extensive economics literature that relates oil price shocks to aggregate economic activity. It examines how oil price shocks create business cycles, why they seem to have a disproportionate effect on economic activity, why the economy responds asymmetrically to oil prices, and why the relationship between oil prices and economic activity may have weakened. It also addresses the issue of developing energy policy to mitigate the economic effects of oil price shocks"--Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas web site.
Book Synopsis The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy by : Mr.Paul Cashin
Download or read book The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-23 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.
Book Synopsis Hysteresis and Business Cycles by : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Book Synopsis Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information by : Tao Wu
Download or read book Measuring Oil-Price Shocks Using Market-Based Information written by Tao Wu and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2010-10 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors study the effects of oil-price shocks on the U.S economy combining narrative and quantitative approaches. After examining daily oil-related events since 1984, they classify them into various event types. They then develop measures of exogenous shocks that avoid endogeneity and predictability concerns. Estimation results indicate that oil-price shocks have had substantial and statistically significant effects during the last 25 years. In contrast, traditional vector auto-regression (VAR) approaches imply much weaker and insignificant effects for the same period. This discrepancy stems from the inability of VARs to separate exogenous oil-supply shocks from endogenous oil-price fluctuations driven by changes in oil demand. Illustrations.
Book Synopsis Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates by : Martin Bodenstein
Download or read book Oil Shocks and the Zero Bound on Nominal Interest Rates written by Martin Bodenstein and published by DIANE Publishing. This book was released on 2011-04 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beginning in 2009, in many advanced economies, policy rates reached their zero lower bound (ZLB). Almost at the same time, oil prices started rising again. The authors analyze how the ZLB affects the propagation of oil shocks. As these shocks move inflation and output in opposite directions, their effects on economic activity are cushioned when monetary policy is constrained. The burst of inflation from an oil price increase lowers real interest rates at the ZLB and stimulates theinterest-sensitive component of GDP, offsetting the usual contractionary effects. In fact, if the increase in oil prices is gradual, the persistent rise in inflation can cause a GDP expansion. Illus. This is a print on demand report.
Book Synopsis The Third Oil Shock (Routledge Revivals) by : Joan Pearce
Download or read book The Third Oil Shock (Routledge Revivals) written by Joan Pearce and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2018-10-24 with total page 109 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: First published in 1983, this book a number of collects the essays about the effects of a sustained period of low oil prices. The opening chapter describes how oil prices have impinged on other elements of the economy and assesses the costs and benefits, in the short and long term, of low prices. The following three chapters deal with different groups of countries and indicate clearly that for none of them do lower oil prices have unequivocally positive or negative effects — a situation examined in the chapter on the international financial system. The last three chapters analyse the shifts lower prices are likely to produce in relations among the groups closely involved in the oil market.
Book Synopsis Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation by : Alan S. Blinder
Download or read book Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation written by Alan S. Blinder and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-09-11 with total page 244 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy and Oil Price Changes by : Young Koo Lee
Download or read book Macroeconomic Effects of Monetary Policy and Oil Price Changes written by Young Koo Lee and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 270 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the relative importance between supply shocks and demand shocks. Examining the F-tests and variance decompositions of several candidate proxies, the federal funds rate and oil shocks dates are chosen as a proxy for monetary policy and oil price changes, respectively. Oil shocks dates variable has a stronger predictive power on real GNP growth than normalized oil shocks or normalized real oil price movements. The Federal funds rate has a stronger predictive power on real GNP growth than three-month Treasury bill rate or Romers dates. Results obtained from the reduced-form benchmark VAR system reveal that oil shocks account for 15-19 percent while the Federal funds rate accounts for 3-9 percent of the variance of the eight quarters ahead forecast errors of real GNP growth, for the sample period 1957:4-1995:2. The predictive power of oil shocks dates on real GNP growth is around twice larger than that of the Federal funds rate. Results of the structural benchmark VAR system, however, show that oil shocks account for 69.4 percent while the Federal funds rate accounts for 1.7 percent of the variance of the eight quarters ahead forecast errors of real GNP growth, for the sample period 1957:4-1995:2. Examining the structural VAR systems shows that the dynamic effects of labor or productivity shocks on outputs are roughly consistent with the Keynesian model in that increases in productivity or labor supply increase both output and unemployment in the short-run while Blanchard's (1989) results that a favorable supply shock brings the temporary decrease in output in the quarter. In conclusion, both oil (supply) shocks and monetary policy (demand) shocks have somewhat affected on the United States postwar economy. However, oil price shocks have affected business cycle fluctuations at least about twice more strongly than policy shocks. Moreover, the results obtained from the benchmark structural VAR show that oil price shocks have a very strong effect while monetary policy shocks have a negligible effect on real GNP growth after two quarters.
Book Synopsis Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks by : Ben Bernanke
Download or read book Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks written by Ben Bernanke and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Commodity Prices and Markets by : Takatoshi Ito
Download or read book Commodity Prices and Markets written by Takatoshi Ito and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2011-03 with total page 346 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Book Synopsis Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. and International Evidence by : Kristie Engemann
Download or read book Do Oil Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Some U.S. and International Evidence written by Kristie Engemann and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Oil prices rose sharply prior to the onset of the 2007-2009 recession. Hamilton (2005) noted that nine of the last ten recessions in the United States were preceded by a substantial increase in the price of oil. In this paper, we consider whether oil price shocks significantly increase the probability of recessions in a number of countries. Because business cycle turning points generally are not available for other countries, we estimate the turning points together with oil's effect in a Markov-switching model with time-varying transition probabilities. We find that, for most countries, oil shocks do affect the likelihood of entering a recession. In particular, for a constant, zero term spread, an average-sized shock to WTI oil prices increases the probability of recession in the U.S. by nearly 50 percentage points after one year and nearly 90 percentage points after two years.
Book Synopsis The American Business Cycle by : Robert J. Gordon
Download or read book The American Business Cycle written by Robert J. Gordon and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 882 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In recent decades the American economy has experienced the worst peace-time inflation in its history and the highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression. These circumstances have prompted renewed interest in the concept of business cycles, which Joseph Schumpeter suggested are "like the beat of the heart, of the essence of the organism that displays them." In The American Business Cycle, some of the most prominent macroeconomics in the United States focuses on the questions, To what extent are business cycles propelled by external shocks? How have post-1946 cycles differed from earlier cycles? And, what are the major factors that contribute to business cycles? They extend their investigation in some areas as far back as 1875 to afford a deeper understanding of both economic history and the most recent economic fluctuations. Seven papers address specific aspects of economic activity: consumption, investment, inventory change, fiscal policy, monetary behavior, open economy, and the labor market. Five papers focus on aggregate economic activity. In a number of cases, the papers present findings that challenge widely accepted models and assumptions. In addition to its substantive findings, The American Business Cycle includes an appendix containing both the first published history of the NBER business-cycle dating chronology and many previously unpublished historical data series.
