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Oil Price Shocks And Economic Growth In Oil Exporting Countries
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Book Synopsis Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries by : Amir Sadeghi
Download or read book Oil Price Shocks and Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Countries written by Amir Sadeghi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-12-22 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines the impact of government size on how output and government expenditure respond to oil price shocks in 28 oil-exporting countries between 1990 and 2016. Results suggest that if the size of government (measured by government expenditure-to-(non-oil) GDP ratio) is larger, non-oil output growth, in response to a positive oil price shock, tends to be greater and output volatility higher. Furthermore, I find that an unexpected increase in oil price leads to expansion in government expenditure and the expansion is larger, the larger is the government. This paper provides empirical evidence for direct correlation between government size and macroecnomic stability in oil-exporting countries. The findings imply that fiscal consolidation and economic diversification help to narrow down economic exposure to exogenous oil price shocks and reduce volatility in non-oil output.
Book Synopsis The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in Middle Income Developing Countries by : Mark E. Hanson
Download or read book The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in Middle Income Developing Countries written by Mark E. Hanson and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Oil Prices and Bank Profitability by : Mr.Heiko Hesse
Download or read book Oil Prices and Bank Profitability written by Mr.Heiko Hesse and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-10-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the relationship between oil price shocks and bank profitability. Using data on 145 banks in 11 oil-exporting MENA countries for 1994-2008, we test hypotheses of direct and indirect effects of oil price shocks on bank profitability. Our results indicate that oil price shocks have indirect effect on bank profitability, channeled through country-specific macroeconomic and institutional variables, while the direct effect is insignificant. Investment banks appear to be the most affected ones compared to Islamic and commercial banks. Our findings highlight systemic implications of oil price shocks on bank performance and underscore their importance for macroprudential regulation purposes in MENA countries.
Book Synopsis Oil and the International Economy by : Georg Koopmann
Download or read book Oil and the International Economy written by Georg Koopmann and published by Transaction Publishers. This book was released on with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The oil price increases of the 1970s left deep marks on the world economy. They led to a massive redistribution of income in favor of oil-producing countries, and caused serious disruption of growth, imbalances in foreign trade, and problems of stability in oil-importing countries. Despite the present levelling off, the authors suggest that more price increases remain a distinct possibility. "Oil and the International Economy "examines the effects of rising oil prices on the international financial system and identifies ways that oil-importing countries can overcome the financial and adjustment problems caused by them. The authors project the long-term trend in real oil prices and present economic policy options to help avoid future financial problems for industrialized and developing nations alike. Contents: The World Oil Market after the Oil Price Shocks; Future Trends in the Demand for Oil; Future Trends in the Supply of Oil; Balance-of-Payments and Exchange-Rate Adjustment: Current Account Developments in Times of Rising Oil Prices and Effects on Exchange Rates; The Effects of Real Oil Price Increases on Energy and Raw Material Prices; Repercussions on the General Price Level; Implications for the German Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy; Are Real Oil Price Increases a Brake on Growth?; Options for Economic Policy; The Struggle for Markets in the Oil-Producing Countries; The Oil-Producing Countries as Competitors in the Manufacturing Sector; Consequences for Trade Between Oil-Importing Countries.
Book Synopsis A Crude Shock by : Francesco Grigoli
Download or read book A Crude Shock written by Francesco Grigoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-18 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The decline in oil prices in 2014-16 was one of the sharpest in history, and put to test the resilience of oil exporters. We examine the degree to which economic fundamentals entering the oil price decline explain the impact on economic growth across oil exporting economies, and derive policy implications as to what factors help to mitigate the negative effects. We find that pre-existing fundamentals account for about half of the cross-country variation in the impact of the shock. Oil exporters that weathered the shock better tended to have a stronger fiscal position, higher foreign currency liquidity buffers, a more diversified export base, a history of price stability, and a more flexible exchange rate regime. Within this group of countries, the impact of the shock is not found to be related to the size of oil exports, or the share of oil in fiscal revenue or economic activity.
Book Synopsis The impact of oil price dynamics on global economy by : Vivian Randhawa
Download or read book The impact of oil price dynamics on global economy written by Vivian Randhawa and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-05-14 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2014 in the subject Business economics - Trade and Distribution, grade: 1,7, Hamburg University of Applied Sciences, language: English, abstract: After oil was discovered in the late 19th century, oil prices were primarily determined first by the major petroleum companies and then by the oil-exporting nations, who joined forces in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). In the 1960s, the market-oriented pricing system was adopted and since then oil prices are primarily formed by supply and demand. Oil prices are characterized by permanent price fluctuations. Especially rapid price rises and longer-term fluctuations are at the focus of many scientific work. Because oil is an indispensable resource for the global economy, the question arises after the economic impacts of such price developments. While oil- exporting countries benefit from strong price rises, oil- importing countries, with emerging countries leading the way, are negatively affected. The interplay of these opposite effects and the global economic situation are crucial for the net effect on global economy.
Book Synopsis Macroeconomic Effects of Terms-of-trade Shocks by : Nikola Spatafora
Download or read book Macroeconomic Effects of Terms-of-trade Shocks written by Nikola Spatafora and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 1999 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: January 1995 The authors investigate the impact on economic growth and development of long-run movements in the external terms of trade, with special reference to the experience of 18 oil-exporting countries between 1973 and 1989. They argue that this sample approximates a controlled experiment for examining the impact of unanticipated -- but permanent -- shocks to the terms of trade. They analyze the sample econometrically using panel data techniques. They find that permanent terms-of-trade shocks have a strongly significant positive effect on investment, which they justify theoretically on the grounds that countries in the sample import much of their capital equipment. The shocks also have a significant positive effect on consumption. Government consumption responds almost twice as strongly as private consumption. The shocks have no effect on savings and adversely affect the trade and current account balances. There is a significant positive effect on the output of all main categories of nontradables. But Dutch disease effects are strikingly absent. Agriculture and manufacturing do not contract in reaction to an oil price increase. Dutch disease effects may be absent in part because of policy-induced output restraints in the oil sector, or because of the enclave nature of the oil sector, which does not participate in domestic factor markets.
Book Synopsis Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices by : Mr. Aasim M. Husain
Download or read book Global Implications of Lower Oil Prices written by Mr. Aasim M. Husain and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-07-14 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp drop in oil prices is one of the most important global economic developments over the past year. The SDN finds that (i) supply factors have played a somewhat larger role than demand factors in driving the oil price drop, (ii) a substantial part of the price decline is expected to persist into the medium term, although there is large uncertainty, (iii) lower oil prices will support global growth, (iv) the sharp oil price drop could still trigger financial strains, and (v) policy responses should depend on the terms-of-trade impact, fiscal and external vulnerabilities, and domestic cyclical position.
Download or read book Taking Stock written by Diego A. Cerdeiro and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-04 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The effect that the recent decline in the price of oil has had on growth is far from clear, with many observers at odds to explain why it does not seem to have provided a significant boost to the world economy. This paper aims to address this puzzle by providing a systematic analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on growth for 72 countries comprising 92.8% of world GDP. We find that, on net, shocks driving the oil price in 2015 shaved off 0.2 percentage points of growth for the median country in our sample, and 0.17 percentage points in GDP-weighted terms. While increases in oil supply and shocks to oil-specific demand actually boosted growth in 2015 (by about 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points, respectively), weak global demand more than offset these gains, reducing growth by 0.8 percentage points. Counterfactual simulations for the 72 countries in our sample underscore the importance of diversification, rather than low levels of openness, in shielding against negative shocks to the world economy.
Book Synopsis International Dimensions of Monetary Policy by : Jordi Galí
Download or read book International Dimensions of Monetary Policy written by Jordi Galí and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 663 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: United States monetary policy has traditionally been modeled under the assumption that the domestic economy is immune to international factors and exogenous shocks. Such an assumption is increasingly unrealistic in the age of integrated capital markets, tightened links between national economies, and reduced trading costs. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy brings together fresh research to address the repercussions of the continuing evolution toward globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. In this comprehensive book, the authors examine the real and potential effects of increased openness and exposure to international economic dynamics from a variety of perspectives. Their findings reveal that central banks continue to influence decisively domestic economic outcomes—even inflation—suggesting that international factors may have a limited role in national performance. International Dimensions of Monetary Policy will lead the way in analyzing monetary policy measures in complex economies.
Book Synopsis The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy by : Mr.Paul Cashin
Download or read book The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy written by Mr.Paul Cashin and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-10-23 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.
Book Synopsis Oil Prices and the Global Economy by : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Download or read book Oil Prices and the Global Economy written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Developments - Drivers, Economic Consequences and Policy Responses by : Nadine Pahl
Download or read book Oil Price Developments - Drivers, Economic Consequences and Policy Responses written by Nadine Pahl and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2009-04-16 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 1,0, University of Applied Sciences Berlin, course: General Economics, language: English, abstract: Oil prices are an important determinant of global economic performance. Crude Oil prices ranged between $2.50/bbl and $3.00/bbl from 1948 through the end of the 1960s. As of this day, the price for crude oil is $89.82/bbl. In general, spikes in oil prices are not unusual and are, to some extent, symptomatic of a gradual upward trend in daily oil price volatility. Volatile prices arise from supply and demand that are both highly inelastic in the short run, with the result that even small shocks can have large effects on price. But especially within the last few years, the oil price has continuously increased sharply - and to some extent unexpected. This recent sharp increase in the oil price prompts several questions: Why have oil prices risen? What is the impact on the global economy and on individual countries? How do oil importing countries cope with the higher prices? What are appropriate policy responses to stabilise the economy in face of high oil prices? And last but not least, what role does the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries really play? To begin with, there is no doubt that the recent increase in oil price is mainly demand driven, combined with historically low excess capacity and heightened concerns about supply disruptions. And even without macroeconomic knowledge, everyone is aware that higher oil prices affect the economy as a whole and all its market participants. In the following, this paper analyses in detail the current main oil price drivers, their economic consequences and the possible policy responses - always framed by the volatility and uncertainty that characterise the oil market.
Book Synopsis Oil and the International Economy by : Georg Koopmann
Download or read book Oil and the International Economy written by Georg Koopmann and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2022-01-26 with total page 222 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The oil price increases of the 1970s left deep marks on the world economy. They led to a massive redistribution of income in favor of oil-producing countries, and caused serious disruption of growth, imbalances in foreign trade, and problems of stability in oil-importing countries. Despite the present levelling off, the authors suggest that more price increases remain a distinct possibility.Oil and the International Economy examines the effects of rising oil prices on the international financial system and identifies ways that oil-importing countries can overcome the financial and adjustment problems caused by them. The authors project the long-term trend in real oil prices and present economic policy options to help avoid future financial problems for industrialized and developing nations alike.
Author :United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. Subcommittee on Trade, Productivity, and Economic Growth Publisher : ISBN 13 : Total Pages :182 pages Book Rating :4.F/5 ( download)
Book Synopsis The Economic Impact of the Oil Price Collapse by : United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. Subcommittee on Trade, Productivity, and Economic Growth
Download or read book The Economic Impact of the Oil Price Collapse written by United States. Congress. Joint Economic Committee. Subcommittee on Trade, Productivity, and Economic Growth and published by . This book was released on 1986 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Oil Price Developments – Drivers, Economic Consequences and Policy Responses by : Nadine Pahl
Download or read book Oil Price Developments – Drivers, Economic Consequences and Policy Responses written by Nadine Pahl and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2009-03-27 with total page 75 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2007 in the subject Business economics - Economic Policy, grade: 1,0, University of Applied Sciences Berlin, course: General Economics, language: English, abstract: Oil prices are an important determinant of global economic performance. Crude Oil prices ranged between $2.50/bbl and $3.00/bbl from 1948 through the end of the 1960s. As of this day, the price for crude oil is $89.82/bbl. In general, spikes in oil prices are not unusual and are, to some extent, symptomatic of a gradual upward trend in daily oil price volatility. Volatile prices arise from supply and demand that are both highly inelastic in the short run, with the result that even small shocks can have large effects on price. But especially within the last few years, the oil price has continuously increased sharply – and to some extent unexpected. This recent sharp increase in the oil price prompts several questions: Why have oil prices risen? What is the impact on the global economy and on individual countries? How do oil importing countries cope with the higher prices? What are appropriate policy responses to stabilise the economy in face of high oil prices? And last but not least, what role does the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries really play? To begin with, there is no doubt that the recent increase in oil price is mainly demand driven, combined with historically low excess capacity and heightened concerns about supply disruptions. And even without macroeconomic knowledge, everyone is aware that higher oil prices affect the economy as a whole and all its market participants. In the following, this paper analyses in detail the current main oil price drivers, their economic consequences and the possible policy responses - always framed by the volatility and uncertainty that characterise the oil market.
Book Synopsis Oil Price Uncertainty by : Apostolos Serletis
Download or read book Oil Price Uncertainty written by Apostolos Serletis and published by World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated. This book was released on 2012 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The relationship between the price of oil and the level of economic activity is a fundamental issue in macroeconomics. There is an ongoing debate in the literature about whether positive oil price shocks cause recessions in the United States (and other oil-importing countries), and although there exists a vast empirical literature that investigates the effects of oil price shocks, there are relatively few studies that investigate the direct effects of uncertainty about oil prices on the real economy. The book uses recent advances in macroeconomics and financial economics to investigate the effects of oil price shocks and uncertainty about the price of oil on the level of economic activity.
