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Nominal Debt Dynamics And Monetary Policy
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Book Synopsis Nominal Debt Dynamics and Monetary Policy by : Liam Graham
Download or read book Nominal Debt Dynamics and Monetary Policy written by Liam Graham and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How is the impact of monetary policy affected by the nature of nominal debt contracts? How does this change if the interest payments on the debt are fixed or floating? To address these questions, we add a model of financial institutions' behaviour to a dynamic general equilibrium model in which some households face credit constraints. We analyse these affects of inflationary shocks, and derive implications for monetary policy. We question the common view that inflationary shocks necessarily result in debtors increasing their consumption. We also provide a potential explanation for interest rate smoothing on the part of central banks.
Book Synopsis What Really Drives Public Debt by : Pablo Anaya
Download or read book What Really Drives Public Debt written by Pablo Anaya and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-25 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a novel approach to detail the propagation of shocks to public debt. The modeling technique involves a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) estimator with an endogenous debt accumulation equation. It explores how the main drivers of sovereign debt dynamics—the primary balance, the interest rate, growth and inflation—interact with each other. Such analysis is particularly useful for debt sustainability analysis. We find that some interactions exacerbate the impact of shocks to the accumulation of debt, while others act to stabilize debt dynamics. Furthermore, the choice of monetary policy regime plays an important role in these debt dynamics – countries with constrained monetary policy are more at risk from changes in market sentiment and must rely much more on fiscal policy to constrain debt.
Book Synopsis Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management by : Mr.Cristiano Cantore
Download or read book Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy, Debt Crisis and Management written by Mr.Cristiano Cantore and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-03-30 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The initial government debt-to-GDP ratio and the government’s commitment play a pivotal role in determining the welfare-optimal speed of fiscal consolidation in the management of a debt crisis. Under commitment, for low or moderate initial government debt-to-GPD ratios, the optimal consolidation is very slow. A faster pace is optimal when the economy starts from a high level of public debt implying high sovereign risk premia, unless these are suppressed via a bailout by official creditors. Under discretion, the cost of not being able to commit is reflected into a quick consolidation of government debt. Simple monetary-fiscal rules with passive fiscal policy, designed for an environment with “normal shocks”, perform reasonably well in mimicking the Ramsey-optimal response to one-off government debt shocks. When the government can issue also long-term bonds–under commitment–the optimal debt consolidation pace is slower than in the case of short-term bonds only, and entails an increase in the ratio between long and short-term bonds.
Book Synopsis Debt Dynamics and Monetary Policy by : Stefan Laséen
Download or read book Debt Dynamics and Monetary Policy written by Stefan Laséen and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Nominal and Indexed Debt by : Michael T. Gapen
Download or read book Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy with Nominal and Indexed Debt written by Michael T. Gapen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-11-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper highlights the importance of debt composition in setting optimal fiscal and monetary policy over short-run business cycles and in the long run. Nominal debt as state-contingent debt can be a significant policy tool to reduce the volatility of distortionary government policy, thereby reducing macroeconomic volatility while increasing equilibrium output and consumption. The welfare gain from using nominal debt to hedge against shocks to the government budget is as large as the welfare gain from the ability to issue debt.
Book Synopsis Public Debt Dynamics and the Impact of Fiscal Policy by : Nikhil Patel
Download or read book Public Debt Dynamics and the Impact of Fiscal Policy written by Nikhil Patel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-04-26 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Public debt-to-GDP ratios have undergone substantial fluctuations over both the short and long term. Most recently, global debt-to-GDP ratios peaked at 100% on average in 2020 due to COVID-19, retracting substantially by 2022. To understand what drives these movements, we propose a structural approach to debt decompositions based on a SVAR identified with narrative sign restrictions. We find that GDP growth shocks and the corresponding comovements of macroeconomic variables are the key drivers of debt to GDP, accounting for 40% of the observed yearly variation in 17 advanced economies since the 1980s. Discretionary fiscal policy changes, in turn, account for less than 20% of the observed changes. The analysis also finds the primary balance multiplier on GDP to be very small. We reconcile our results with the literature, underscoring the importance of accurate shock identification and accounting for cross-country heterogeneity.
Book Synopsis The Debt Burden and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy by : Guillermo Calvo
Download or read book The Debt Burden and Its Consequences for Monetary Policy written by Guillermo Calvo and published by Springer. This book was released on 1998-02-12 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In all countries debt and deficits of the public sector are at the heart of economic policy debate. Debt and deficits pose major problems, all the more pressing in Europe because of the Maastricht criteria for entry into European Monetary Union. And in the developing world debt has been associated with major financial crises. This volume, arising from an International Economic Association conference at the Bundesbank, sees academics and policy makers debate the key issues and their implications in theory and practice.
Book Synopsis Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy by : Carlo A. Favero
Download or read book Debt and the Effects of Fiscal Policy written by Carlo A. Favero and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical investigations of the effects of fiscal policy shocks share a common weakness: taxes, government spending and interest rates are assumed to respond to various macroeconomic variables but not to the level of the public debt; moreover the impact of fiscal shocks on the dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio are not tracked. We analyze the effects of fiscal shocks allowing for a direct response of taxes, government spending and the cost of debt service to the level of the public debt. We show that omitting such a feedback can result in incorrect estimates of the dynamic effects of fiscal shocks. In particular the absence of an effect of fiscal shocks on long-term interest rates - a frequent finding in research based on VAR's that omit a debt feedback - can be explained by their mis-specification, especially over samples in which the debt dynamics appears to be unstable. Using data for the U.S. economy and the identification assumption proposed by Blanchard and Perotti (2002) we reconsider the effects of fiscal policy shocks correcting for these shortcomings.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Government Debt Dynamics Without Commitment by : Dmitry Matveev
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Government Debt Dynamics Without Commitment written by Dmitry Matveev and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Assessing the Impact and Phasing of Multi-year Fiscal Adjustment by : Ran Bi
Download or read book Assessing the Impact and Phasing of Multi-year Fiscal Adjustment written by Ran Bi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a general framework to assess the output and debt dynamics of an economy undertaking multi-year fiscal adjustment. The framework allows country-specific assumptions about the magnitude and persistence of fiscal multipliers, hysteresis effects, and endogenous financing costs. In addition to informing macro projections, the framework can also shed light on the appropriate phasing of fiscal consolidation—in particular, on whether it should be front- or back-loaded. The framework is applied to stylized advanced and emerging economy examples. It suggests that for a highly-indebted economy undertaking large multi-year fiscal consolidation, high multipliers do not always argue against frontloaded adjustment. The case for more gradual or back-loaded adjustment is strongest when hysteresis effects are in play, but it needs to be balanced against implications for debt sustainability. Application to actual country examples tends to cast doubt on claims that very large multipliers have been operating post-crisis. It seems that the GDP forecast errors for Greece may have been due more to over-optimism on potential growth estimates than to underestimating fiscal multipliers.
Book Synopsis Boosting Fiscal Space by : Mr.Jonathan David Ostry
Download or read book Boosting Fiscal Space written by Mr.Jonathan David Ostry and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-03-14 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Noting that the aftermath of the global financial crisis has left many advanced economies with very high sovereign debt ratios and some emerging markets with high debt, this report considers whether there are ways to expand fiscal space that do not involve countries paying down debt or promising to do so in the future, to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly. It explains that policymakers argue that their fiscal space is limited and that it would be difficult to take advantage of the opportunity of low interest rates to undertake fiscal expansion, and it considers a ways to raise fiscal space that does not require contractionary fiscal policy and whether there is a way to make fiscal consolidation more growth-friendly to produce larger gains in fiscal space. It argues that debt management policies may provide an answer to expanding fiscal space for a given path of primary fiscal balances by reducing the risk that a sovereign may default in bad states and generate a payoff in terms of reduced to real borrowing costs. It describes two debt management policies: issuance of GDP-linked debt and issuance of longer maturity bonds, as opposed to short-term debt. It focuses on the effect of these debt management policies on real borrowing costs and default risk for the sovereign and details the literature on GDP-linked debt and the maturity structure and how the report fills gaps in the literature; how uncertainty affects fiscal space and how debt management can play a role in increasing it, with estimates and simulations of potential gains in fiscal space flowing from debt management; and the sensitivity of the findings to underlying assumptions and policy implications.
Book Synopsis Sustainability of Public Debt in the European Monetary Union. A Case Study of Greece by :
Download or read book Sustainability of Public Debt in the European Monetary Union. A Case Study of Greece written by and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2017-02-07 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2015 in the subject Economics - Finance, grade: 5, University of Zurich, language: English, abstract: This bachelor thesis discusses the sustainability of government debt on a theoretical level with the model of the government budget constraint and its application in a case study. Therefore, the situation of Greece is used as a prime example for the current sovereign debt crisis in the European Monetary Union. It points out with quantitative data, what has led to the high public debt in Greece and what are the consequences of this debt accumulation. For this the sustainability and the development of government debt and its determinants will be analysed. In conclusion, it discusses the options to escape of this sovereign debt crisis for Greece and the European Monetary Union as a whole. In March 2012 Greece received another bailout loan of 144.7 billion euro from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and 19.8 billion euro from the IMF in several tranches until 2014 after a worsening recession and the missing implementation of the conditions. In July 2015 the European Commission arranged to mobilise more than 35 billion euro until 2020, while they already paid out up to this point 4.4 billion euro (European Commission 2015). Still the problem has not been solved yet and Greece is still not able to get control of its debt by itself. The government debt is a relevant topic in economics and has become even more relevant since the outbreak of the European sovereign debt crisis. Further research in the issue of government debt could help us to understand how government-debt crisis develop, how the current sovereign debt crisis may be solved as well as how we could prevent from future crises. To understand the problem of high debt, we also need to understand the necessity of public debt, the arithmetic behind it and its implications on the economy of a country and the whole economic system.
Book Synopsis Debt Dynamics in a Small Open Economy by : Nicos M. Christodoulakis
Download or read book Debt Dynamics in a Small Open Economy written by Nicos M. Christodoulakis and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation by : Luc Eyraud
Download or read book The Challenge of Debt Reduction during Fiscal Consolidation written by Luc Eyraud and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-08 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Studies suggest that fiscal multipliers are currently high in many advanced economies. One important implication is that fiscal tightening could raise the debt ratio in the short term, as fiscal gains are partly wiped out by the decline in output. Although this effect is not long-lasting and debt eventually declines, it could be an issue if financial markets focus on the short-term behavior of the debt ratio, or if country authorities engage in repeated rounds of tightening in an effort to get the debt ratio to converge to the official target. We discuss whether these problems could be addressed by setting and monitoring debt targets in cyclically-adjusted terms.
Book Synopsis Fiscal R-Star: Fiscal-Monetary Tensions and Implications for Policy by : Marijn A. Bolhuis
Download or read book Fiscal R-Star: Fiscal-Monetary Tensions and Implications for Policy written by Marijn A. Bolhuis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-08-09 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Since the Global Financial Crisis, fiscal policy in advanced economies has become more “active” – that is, increasingly unresponsive to rising debt levels. This paper explores tensions between active fiscal and monetary policies by introducing the concept of “fiscal r-star,” which is the real interest rate required to stabilize debt levels when the primary balance is set exogenously, output is growing at potential, and inflation is at target. It is proposed that the difference between monetary r-star and fiscal r-star—referred to as the “fiscal monetary gap”—is a proxy for fiscal-monetary policy tensions. An analysis of over 140 years of data from 16 advanced economies shows that larger fiscal-monetary gaps are associated with rising debt levels, higher inflation, financial repression, lower real returns on bonds and cash, with elevated risks of future debt, inflation, currency, housing, and systemic crises. Current estimates indicate that fiscal-monetary tensions are at historic highs. Given the tepid growth outlook, growth-enhancing reforms and fiscal consolidation, among other policy adjustments, may be needed to attenuate fiscal-monetary tensions over time.
Book Synopsis Debt Limits and the Structure of Public Debt by : Alex Pienkowski
Download or read book Debt Limits and the Structure of Public Debt written by Alex Pienkowski and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-05-22 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a tractable framework to assess how the structure of debt instruments—specifically by currency denomination and indexation to GDP—can raise the debt limit of a sovereign. By calibrating the model to different country fundamentals, it is clear that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to optimal instrument design. For instance, low income countries may find benefit in issuing local currency debt; while in advanced economies debt tolerance can be substantially enhanced through issuing GDP-linked bonds. By looking at the marginal impact of these instruments, the paper also provides insight into the optimal portfolio compostion.
Book Synopsis Jointly Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules under Borrowing Constraints by : Mr.Michael Kumhof
Download or read book Jointly Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules under Borrowing Constraints written by Mr.Michael Kumhof and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-12-01 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the welfare properties of an economy where both monetary and fiscal policy follow simple rules, and where a subset of agents is borrowing constrained. The optimized fiscal rule is far more aggressive than automatic stabilizers, and stabilizes the income of borrowingconstrained agents, rather than output. The optimized monetary rule features super-inertia and a very low coefficient on inflation, which minimizes real wage volatility. The welfare gains of optimizing the fiscal rule are far larger than the welfare gains of optimizing the monetary rule. The preferred fiscal instruments are government spending and transfers targeted to borrowing-constrained agents.
