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Author : Thomas Haertel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (118 download)
Download or read book New Evidence on News-Driven Business Cycles written by Thomas Haertel and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Paul Beaudry
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 101 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (857 download)
Download or read book News Driven Business Cycles written by Paul Beaudry and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is a widespread belief that changes in expectations may be an important independent driver of economic fluctuations. The news view of business cycles offers a formalization of this perspective. In this paper we discuss mechanisms by which changes in agents' information, due to the arrival of news, can cause business cycle fluctuations driven by expectational change, and we review the empirical evidence aimed at evaluating its relevance. In particular, we highlight how the literature on news and business cycles offers a coherent way of thinking about aggregate fluctuations, while at the same time we emphasize the many challenges that must be addressed before a proper assessment of its role in business cycles can be established.
Author : Paul Beaudry
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 101 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (881 download)
Download or read book News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges written by Paul Beaudry and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 101 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513536990
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Hysteresis and Business Cycles written by Ms.Valerie Cerra and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-29 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.
Author : Nir Jaimovich
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 68 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Can News about the Future Drive the Business Cycle? written by Nir Jaimovich and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 68 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Aggregate and sectoral comovement are central features of business cycle data. Therefore, the ability to generate comovement is a natural litmus test for macroeconomic models. But it is a test that most existing models fail. In this paper we propose a unified model that generates both aggregate and sectoral comovement in response to contemporaneous shocks and news shocks about fundamentals. The fundamentals that we consider are aggregate and sectoral TFP shocks as well as investment-specific technical change. The model has three key elements: variable capital utilization, adjustment costs to investment, and a new form of preferences that allow us to parameterize the strength of short-run wealth effects on the labor supply.
Author : Stefan Avdjiev
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book News Driven Business Cycles and Data on Asset Prices in Estimated DSGE Models written by Stefan Avdjiev and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The existing literature on estimated structural News Driven Business Cycle (NDBC) models has focused almost exclusively on macroeconomic data and has largely ignored asset prices. In this paper, we present evidence that including data on asset prices in the estimation of a structural NDBC model dramatically affects inference about the main sources of business cycle fluctuations. Combined with the large body of evidence that asset price movements reflect changes in expectations of future developments in the economy, our results imply that data on asset prices should always be used in the estimation of structural NDBC models because they contain information that cannot be obtained by using solely macroeconomic data.
Download or read book Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Michael Lamla
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (119 download)
Download or read book Media Reporting and Business Cycles written by Michael Lamla and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent literature suggests that news shocks could be an important driver of economic cycles. In this article, we use a direct measure of news sentiment derived from media reports. This allows us to examine whether innovations in the reporting tone correlate with changes in the assessment and expectations of the business situation as reported by firms in the German manufacturing sector. We find that innovations in news reporting affect business expectations, even when conditioning on the current business situation and industrial production. The dynamics of the empirical model confirm theoretical predictions that news innovations affect real variables such as production via changes in expectations. Looking at individual sectors within manufacturing, we find that macroeconomic news is at least as important for business expectations as sector-specific news. This is consistent with the existence of information complementarities across sectors.
Author : Gunes Kamber
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (931 download)
Download or read book News-driven Business Cycles in Small Open Economies written by Gunes Kamber and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Rabah Arezki
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513590766
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book News Shocks in Open Economies written by Mr.Rabah Arezki and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-09-29 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores the effect of news shocks on the current account and other macroeconomic variables using worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ? the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4 to 6 years. We first present a two-sector small open economy model in order to predict the responses of macroeconomic aggregates to news of an oil discovery. We then estimate the effects of giant oil discoveries on a large panel of countries. Our empirical estimates are consistent with the predictions of the model. After an oil discovery, the current account and saving rate decline for the first 5 years and then rise sharply during the ensuing years. Investment rises robustly soon after the news arrives, while GDP does not increase until after 5 years. Employment rates fall slightly for a sustained period of time.
Author : Daron Acemoglu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780226002095
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (2 download)
Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009 written by Daron Acemoglu and published by . This book was released on 2010-07 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual provides a forum for important debates in contemporary macroeconomics and major developments in the theory of macroeconomic analysis and policy that include leading economists from a variety of fields. The papers and accompanying discussions in NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009 address how heterogeneous beliefs interact with equilibrium leverage and potentially lead to leverage cycles, the validity of alternative hypotheses about the reason for the recent increase in foreclosures on residential mortgages, the credit rating crisis, quantitative implications for the evolution of the U.S. wage distribution, and noisy business cycles.
Author : Wataru Miyamoto
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 57 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book The Expectational Effects of News in Business Cycles written by Wataru Miyamoto and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes to exploit data on expectations to identify news shocks in business cycles. News shocks work through changes in expectations, so data on expectations contain important information for identification. We demonstrate this by estimating a DSGE model augmented with news shocks using U.S. data between 1955Q1 and 2006Q4. News shocks only generate modest business cycles before fundamental changes. The precision of the estimated news shocks greatly improves when data on expectations are used. These results arise because data on expectations are smooth and do not resemble actual output.
Author : Juliane A. Lischka
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3658115416
Total Pages : 139 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (581 download)
Download or read book Economic News, Sentiment, and Behavior written by Juliane A. Lischka and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-11-04 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explores the relations between objective, media-related, and social attitudinal as well as behavioral realities of private, expert, and corporate agents in the traditions of mass communication, journalism studies and behavioral economics. Results based on time series analyses for German data show that the news reports in a volatile manner on the economy and may influence its development through third-person effects. Bad economic news does not cause a decrease in private purchase intentions. Bad news may lead to a change in corporate decisions, such as advertising expenditures, because corporate decision makers may presume changes in consumer behavior through news.
Author : Thuy Lan Nguyen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (888 download)
Download or read book Essays on Business Cycles written by Thuy Lan Nguyen and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although news shocks are important in explaining the 1980 recession and the 1993-94 boom, they do not explain much of other business cycles in our sample. Moreover, the contribution of news shocks to explaining short run fluctuations is negligible. These results arise because data on expectations show that changes in expectations are not large and do not resemble actual movements of output. Therefore, news shocks cannot be the main driver of business cycles. Chapters Two and Three focus on the driving forces of business cycles in open economies. We start Chapter Two with an observation that business cycles are strongly correlated across countries. We document that this pattern is also true for small open economies between 1900 and 2006 using a novel data set for 17 small developed and developing countries. Furthermore, we provide a new evidence about the role of common shocks in business cycles for small open economies in a structural estimation of a real small open economy model featuring a realistic debt adjustment cost and common shocks.
Author : Robert B. Barsky
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (895 download)
Download or read book Whither News Shocks? written by Robert B. Barsky and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Does news about future productivity cause business-cycle fluctuations? What other effects might it have? We explore the answer to this question using semi-structural VARs, where "news" is defined as the innovation in the expectation of TFP at a fixed horizon in the future. We find that systems incorporating a number of forward-looking variables, including stock prices, consumption, consumer confidence and inflation, robustly predict three outcomes. First, following a news shock, TFP rises for several years. Second, inflation falls immediately and substantially, and stays low, often for 10 quarters or more. Third, there is a sharp increase in a forward-looking measure of consumer confidence. Consumption typically rises following good news, but investment, consumer durables purchases and hours worked typically fall on impact. All the quantity variables subsequently rise, as does TFP. Depending on the specification of the reduced form VAR, the activity variables may lead TFP to some extent - possibly lending some support to the hypothesis of news-driven business cycles - or they may move in lockstep with productivity. For the most part, the quantity and inflation responses are quite consistent with the predictions of a standard New Keynesian model augmented with real wage inertia.
Download or read book News-Driven Business Cycles in Small Open Economies written by and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Paul Beaudry
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 46 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (768 download)
Download or read book Do Mood Swings Drive Business Cycles and is it Rational? written by Paul Beaudry and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides new evidence in support of the idea that bouts of optimism and pessimism drive much of US business cycles. In particular, we begin by using sign-restriction based identification schemes to isolate innovations in optimism or pessimism and we document the extent to which such episodes explain macroeconomic fluctuations. We then examine the link between these identified mood shocks and subsequent developments in fundamentals using alternative identification schemes (i.e., variants of the maximum forecast error variance approach). We find that there is a very close link between the two, suggesting that agents' feelings of optimism and pessimism are at least partially rational as total factor productivity (TFP) is observed to rise 8-10 quarters after an initial bout of optimism. While this later finding is consistent with some previous findings in the news shock literature, we cannot rule out that such episodes reflect self-fulfilling beliefs. Overall, we argue that mood swings account for over 50% of business cycle fluctuations in hours and output -- National Bureau of Economic Research web site.
