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Download or read book Monetary Policy, Hot Housing Markets and Leverage written by and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Oriol Aspachs-Bracons
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455211842
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)
Download or read book The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union written by Oriol Aspachs-Bracons and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-01-01 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent boom-and-bust cycle in housing prices has refreshed the debate on the drivers of housing cycles as well as the appropriate policy response. We analyze the case of Spain, where housing prices have soared since it joined the EMU. We present evidence based on a VAR model, and we calibrate a New Keynesian model of a currency area with durable goods to explain it. We find that labor market rigidities provide stronger amplification effects to all type of shocks than financial frictions do. Finally, we show that when the central bank reacts to house prices, the non-durable sector suffers an important contraction. As a result, the boom-and-bust cycle would not have been avoided if Spain had remained outside the EMU during the 1996-2007 period.
Author : Rob Nijskens
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3030116743
Total Pages : 220 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (31 download)
Download or read book Hot Property written by Rob Nijskens and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-06-14 with total page 220 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This open access book discusses booming housing markets in cities around the globe, and the resulting challenges for policymakers and central banks. Cities are booming everywhere, leading to a growing demand for urban housing. In many cities this demand is out-pacing supply, which causes house prices to soar and increases the pressure on rental markets. These developments are posing major challenges for policymakers, central banks and other authorities responsible for ensuring financial stability, and economic well-being in general.This volume collects views from high-level policymakers and researchers, providing essential insights into these challenges, their impact on society, the economy and financial stability, and possible policy responses. The respective chapters address issues such as the popularity of cities, the question of a credit-fueled housing bubble, the role of housing supply frictions and potential policy solutions. Given its scope, the book offers a revealing read and valuable guide for everyone involved in practical policymaking for housing markets, mortgage credit and financial stability.
Author : Viral V. Acharya
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513545159
Total Pages : 57 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies written by Viral V. Acharya and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-05-22 with total page 57 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze how regulatory constraints on household leverage—in the form of loan-to-income and loan-to-value limits—a?ect residential mortgage credit and house prices as well as other asset classes not directly targeted by the limits. Supervisory loan level data suggest that mortgage credit is reallocated from low-to high-income borrowers and from urban to rural counties. This reallocation weakens the feedback loop between credit and house prices and slows down house price growth in “hot” housing markets. Consistent with constrained lenders adjusting their portfolio choice, more-a?ected banks drive this reallocation and substitute their risk-taking into holdings of securities and corporate credit.
Author : Francesco Beraldi
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book The Pricing-Out Phenomenon in the U.S. Housing Market written by Francesco Beraldi and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-06 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 pandemic further extended the multi-year housing boom in advanced economies and emerging markets alike against massive monetary easing during the pandemic. In this paper, we analyze the pricing-out phenomenon in the U.S. residential housing market due to higher house prices associated with monetary easing. We first set up a stylized general equilibrium model and show that although monetary easing decreases the mortgage payment burden, it would raise house prices, lower housing affordability for first-time homebuyers, and increase housing wealth inequality between first-time and repeat homebuyers. We then use the U.S. household-level data to quantify the effect of the house price change on housing affordability relative to that of the interest rate change. We find evidence of the pricing-out effect for all homebuyers; moreover, we find that the pricing-out effect is stronger for first-time homebuyers than for repeat homebuyers. The paper highlights the importance of accounting for general equilibrium effects and distributional implications of monetary policy while assessing housing affordability. It also calls for complementing monetary easing with well-targeted policy measures that can boost housing affordability, particularly for first-time and lower-income households. Such measures are also needed during aggressive monetary tightening, given that the fall in house prices may be insufficient or too slow to fully offset the immediate adverse impact of higher rates on housing affordability.
Author : Rangan Gupta
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 27 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Financial Market Liberalization, Monetary Policy, and Housing Price Dynamic written by Rangan Gupta and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers how monetary policy, a Federal funds rate shock, affects the dynamics of the US housing sector and whether the financial market liberalization of the early 1980's influenced those dynamics. The analysis uses impulse response functions obtained from a large-scale Bayesian Vector Autoregression (LBVAR) model over the periods 1968:01 to 1982:12 and 1989:01 to 2003:12, including 21 housing-sector variables at the national and four census regions. Overall, the 100 basis point Federal funds rate shock produces larger effects on the real house prices, both at the regional level and the national level, in the post-liberalization period when compared to the pre-liberalization era. While the precision of the estimates do not imply significant differences, the finding does offer a caution. That is, the housing market appears more sensitive to monetary policy shocks in the post-liberalization period. On the one hand, this suggests that monetary policy possesses increased leverage. On the other hand, the housing market cycle traditionally contributes an important component to the aggregate business cycle. Thus, the monetary authorities may need to exercise more care in implementing Federal funds rate adjustments going forward. In addition, contractionary monetary policy exerts a negative effect on house prices at the national level, indicating the absence of the price puzzle in small structural vector autoregressive models. The puzzle's absence in the housing sector possibly emerges as a result of proper identification of monetary policy shocks within a data-rich environment. Finally, we find that the reaction of housing sector proves heterogeneous across regions, with the housing sector in the South driving the national data after liberalization, while before liberalization, the Middle West appears to drive the housing market. The responses in the West differ the most from the other regions.
Author : Mr.Adrian Alter
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513530267
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Household Debt and House Prices-at-risk: A Tale of Two Countries written by Mr.Adrian Alter and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-28 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To identify and quantify downside risks to housing markets, we apply the house price-at-risk methodology to a sample of 37 cities across the United States and Canada using quarterly data from 1983 to 2018. This paper finds that downside risks to housing markets in the United States have seemingly fallen over the past decade, while having increased in Canada. Supply-side drivers, valuation, household debt, and financial conditions jointly play a key role in forecasting house price risks. In addition, capital flows are found to be significantly associated with future downside risks to major housing markets, but the net effect depends on the type of flows and varies across cities and forecast horizons. Using micro-level data, we identify households vulnerable to potential housing shocks and assess the riskiness of household debt.
Author : Mr.Eugenio Cerutti
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513571397
Total Pages : 35 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)
Download or read book Housing Finance and Real-Estate Booms written by Mr.Eugenio Cerutti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-03 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global crisis highlighted the risks stemming from real estate booms. This has generated a growing literature trying to better understand the sources and the risks associated with housing and credit booms. This paper complements and supplements the previous work by (i) exploiting more disaggregated data on credit allowing us to dissociate between firm-credit and household (and in some cases mortgage) credit, and (ii) by taking into account the characteristics of the mortgage market, including institutional as well as other factors that vary across countries. This detailed cross-country analysis offers new valuable insights.
Author : Charles Goodhart
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191514039
Total Pages : 246 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (915 download)
Download or read book House Prices and the Macroeconomy written by Charles Goodhart and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2006-12-21 with total page 246 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: House price bubbles, and their aftermath, have become a focus of macro-economic policy concern in most developed countries. This book elucidates the two-way relationship between house-price fluctuations and economic fundamentals. Housing has many features which make it distinct from other assets, like equity. Real estate is not only an asset but also a durable consumption good for households, providing shelter and other housing services. As a result, a house is often the largest and most important asset of households and therefore accounts for a major share of household wealth. Similarly a large share of bank assets is tied to housing values. House price fluctuations may, therefore, have a major effect on economic activity and the soundness of the financial system. Following an introductory chapter, the book is structured into three parts. The first demonstrates the importance of house prices as determinants or indicators of inflation and economic activity. The second focuses on the inter-relationships between bank credit extension and housing prices, and how bubbles can lead to financial crises. The third discusses resultant public policy issues, such as whether, and how, to include housing prices in a general inflation index, and how to restrain the housing/bank credit cycle.
Author : Thomas Sowell
Publisher : Basic Books (AZ)
ISBN 13 : 0465018807
Total Pages : 194 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (65 download)
Download or read book The Housing Boom and Bust written by Thomas Sowell and published by Basic Books (AZ). This book was released on 2009-05-12 with total page 194 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains how we got into the current economic disaster that developed out of the economics and politics of the housing boom and bust. The "creative" financing of home mortgages and "creative" marketing of financial securities based on these mortgages to countries around the world, are part of the story of how a financial house of cards was built up--and then collapsed.
Author : Yao-Min Chiang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 61 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Unconventional Monetary Policy and U.S. Housing Markets Dynamics written by Yao-Min Chiang and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study investigates whether the unprecedented liquidity injected in the economy by the U.S Fed through unconventional monetary policy measure, popularly known as quantitative easing (QE), is a systematic factor that can explain the abnormally low U.S. housing starts of recent years. We use housing and mortgage markets data that should capture the liquidity induced by QE to construct four unobservable aggregate liquidity factors as key channels through which QE stimulus effects might have been transmitted to housing and mortgage markets. Using monthly MSA level data, we find that expected housing starts are related across time to fluctuations in the aggregate liquidity factors. Specifically, we find that housing starts liquidity betas, their sensitivities to liquidity shocks from QE transmitted through the aggregate liquidity factors significantly influence the level of U.S. investments in new single family housing between 2005 and 2012. However, we find evidence of heterogeneity in the responsiveness of housing starts to innovations in the aggregate liquidity factors in that market regimes with high levels of land use control (constrained markets) exhibit relatively muted sensitivities to fluctuations in the aggregate liquidity factors induced by QE. Remarkably, we also find that in the absence of GSE and FHA capital market activities that channel credit into housing market the contraction in housing starts would have been worse. Further, a build-up in single family homes-for-rent, shadow vacancy liquidity risk, exerts a down-ward pressure on investments in new single family housing.
Author : Bruno Albuquerque
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy written by Bruno Albuquerque and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-02-02 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the role of regional housing markets in the transmission of US monetary policy. Using a FAVAR model over 1999q1–2019q4, we find sizeable heterogeneity in the responses of US states to a contractionary monetary policy shock. Part of this regional variation is due to differences in housing supply elasticities, household debt overhang, and housing wealth (volatility). Our analysis indicates that house prices and consumption respond more in supply-inelastic states and in states with large household debt imbalances, where negative housing wealth effects bite more strongly and borrowing constraints become more binding. Moreover, financial stability risks increase sharply in these areas as mortgage delinquencies and foreclosures surge, worsening banks’ balance sheets. Finally, monetary policy may have a stronger effect on housing tenure decisions in supply-inelastic states, where the homeownership rate and price-to-rent ratios decline by more. Our findings stress the importance of regional housing supply conditions in assessing the macrofinancial effects of rising interest rates.
Author : Franklin Allen
Publisher : Pearson Prentice Hall
ISBN 13 : 0137011601
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (37 download)
Download or read book Fixing the Housing Market written by Franklin Allen and published by Pearson Prentice Hall. This book was released on 2012 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explains the financial history leading to the mortgage meltdown and assesses today's housing finance systems in the United States and abroad.
Author : Richard Koss
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484348559
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Stabilizing China’s Housing Market written by Richard Koss and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-04-13 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The sharp rise of house prices in China’s Tier-1 cities has fostered a great deal of commentary about the possibility of bubbles forming there. However, China’s unique housing market characteristics make it difficult to assess the macroeconomic severity of bursting bubbles, even if they exist. These include the setting of land supply and prices by the government, among many others. The presence of overbuilt “ghost cities” greatly complicates the ability of traditional macroeconomic policies to address these concerns. This paper looks at proposals to shore up the mortgage underwriting and legal infrastructure to help China withstand the impact of falling prices, should this occur.
Author : Oriol Aspachs
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union written by Oriol Aspachs and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Many developed countries have seen housing prices and residential investment soar in the last decade. This fact has refreshed the debate on the drivers of housing cycles as well as the appropriate policy response. We analyze these issues for the case of Spain, who has seen the interest rates at historical lows since it joined the EMU, and increasing housing demand pressures from immigration and the baby boom generation. First, we present evidence based on a VAR model that suggests that both monetary and demand shocks are behind Spain's housing boom. Second, we calibrate a New Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy in a currency area with durable goods. We study the effects of a housing demand shock, a monetary policy shock and a risk premium shock in the model. This allows us to better understand the factors amplifying a housing boom, the role played by the ECB and the recessionary effects of a housing bust. Our results are as follows. First, the model confirms that a combination of these shocks is indeed behind Spain's housing boom. Second, labor market rigidities provide strong amplification effects to all type of shocks, while financial frictions play a secondary role. Third, monetary policy autonomy is of first order importance to cushion risk premium shocks, while this is not the case for housing demand shocks.
Author : Bing Zhu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Housing Market Stability, Mortgage Market Structure, and Monetary Policy written by Bing Zhu and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates how monetary policy stance and mortgage market structure affect non-fundamental house price movements in eleven Euro area countries. Based on a three-stage approach, our empirical evidence suggests that a one-time monetary-easing shock can significantly trigger house price booms in Euro area countries with liberal mortgage markets. Such shocks can explain over 20% of the forecasting error variance of non-fundamental house price run-ups in Ireland and Spain. We find that, in countries with more regulated mortgage markets, monetary policy stance does not significantly affect non-fundamental house prices. Policymakers may wish to focus on limiting mortgage equity withdrawals and on monitoring loan-to-value ratios and tax policies in order to minimize the side effects of accommodative monetary policies on housing market stability for Euro area countries. We posit that this is especially true for peripheral countries, which are more likely to be subjected to overly loose monetary policy stances.
Author : Jing Zhang
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 102 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (896 download)
Download or read book Monetary Policy and the Housing Market During the Last Decade written by Jing Zhang and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 102 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines how monetary policy influences the housing market in U.S. with a special emphasis on the recent financial crisis dating from 2007, which started from the burst of bubbles in the housing market. Using monthly U.S. data spanning over the period from January 2000 to July 2011, I estimate Vector Auto-regressive(VAR) models using data for each metropolitan statistical area (MSA) to analyze the interaction between local housing markets and monetary policy. Aggregate responses of housing variables to monetary policy are also estimated by adopting composite data. Empirical results show that employment and housing price index both respond negatively to a positive monetary policy shock; while the significance and magnitude of the influence varies across MSAs. Compared to the aggregate effects, monetary policy is more likely to be effective in the west and the east, namely, California and Florida, and is more likely to be ineffective in the middle states, namely, Texas. The regional asymmetry in the efficacy of monetary policy could be resulted by various sources, like industry composition, housing supply elasticities, and credit condition.
