Modelling Economic Series

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Modelling Economic Series

Author : Clive William John Granger
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780198287360
Total Pages : 428 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (873 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling Economic Series by : Clive William John Granger

Download or read book Modelling Economic Series written by Clive William John Granger and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a volume of readings for graduate students, especially those taking courses in applied econometrics, who need to learn how to evaluate the validity of present theories and techniques. The aim of the text is to aid readers in the difficult task of actually constructing models. The essays vary in the degree of technical sophistication used, but each paper intends to provide students with a sound knowledge of the practical difficulties of model specification, evaluation and interpretation, as well as advice on tackling these difficulties.

Uncertainty Within Economic Models

Author : Lars Peter Hansen
Publisher : World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated
ISBN 13 : 9789814578110
Total Pages : 454 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (781 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty Within Economic Models by : Lars Peter Hansen

Download or read book Uncertainty Within Economic Models written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated. This book was released on 2014 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Studying this work in real time taught me a lot, but seeing it laid out in conceptual, rather than chronological, order provides even clearer insights into the evolution of this provocative line of research. Hansen and Sargent are two of the best economists of our time, they are also among the most dedicated teachers in our profession. They have once again moved the research frontier, and with this book provide a roadmap for the rest of us to follow. This is a must-have for anyone interested in modeling uncertainty, ambiguity and robustness."Stanley E ZinWilliam R Berkley Professor of Economics and BusinessLeonard N Stern School of BusinessNew York UniversityWritten by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. This book extends rational expectations models by including agents who doubt their models and adopt precautionary decisions designed to protect themselves from adverse consequences of model misspecification. This behavior has consequences for what are ordinarily interpreted as market prices of risk, but big parts of which should actually be interpreted as market prices of model uncertainty. The chapters discuss ways of calibrating agents' fears of model misspecification in quantitative contexts.

Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition

Author : Roger B. Myerson
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262355604
Total Pages : 569 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition by : Roger B. Myerson

Download or read book Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition written by Roger B. Myerson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-12-17 with total page 569 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

Business Model Generation

Author : Alexander Osterwalder
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118656407
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (186 download)

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Book Synopsis Business Model Generation by : Alexander Osterwalder

Download or read book Business Model Generation written by Alexander Osterwalder and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-02-01 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Business Model Generation is a handbook for visionaries, game changers, and challengers striving to defy outmoded business models and design tomorrow's enterprises. If your organization needs to adapt to harsh new realities, but you don't yet have a strategy that will get you out in front of your competitors, you need Business Model Generation. Co-created by 470 "Business Model Canvas" practitioners from 45 countries, the book features a beautiful, highly visual, 4-color design that takes powerful strategic ideas and tools, and makes them easy to implement in your organization. It explains the most common Business Model patterns, based on concepts from leading business thinkers, and helps you reinterpret them for your own context. You will learn how to systematically understand, design, and implement a game-changing business model--or analyze and renovate an old one. Along the way, you'll understand at a much deeper level your customers, distribution channels, partners, revenue streams, costs, and your core value proposition. Business Model Generation features practical innovation techniques used today by leading consultants and companies worldwide, including 3M, Ericsson, Capgemini, Deloitte, and others. Designed for doers, it is for those ready to abandon outmoded thinking and embrace new models of value creation: for executives, consultants, entrepreneurs, and leaders of all organizations. If you're ready to change the rules, you belong to "the business model generation!"

Game Theory and Economic Modelling

Author : David M. Kreps
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198283814
Total Pages : 204 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (982 download)

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Book Synopsis Game Theory and Economic Modelling by : David M. Kreps

Download or read book Game Theory and Economic Modelling written by David M. Kreps and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 204 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Comprises lectures given at Tel Aviv University and Oxford University in 1990.

Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting

Author : Philip Hans Franses
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139952129
Total Pages : 421 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (399 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting by : Philip Hans Franses

Download or read book Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting written by Philip Hans Franses and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.

Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation

Author : Andrew Briggs
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191004952
Total Pages : 269 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation by : Andrew Briggs

Download or read book Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation written by Andrew Briggs and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2006-08-17 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In financially constrained health systems across the world, increasing emphasis is being placed on the ability to demonstrate that health care interventions are not only effective, but also cost-effective. This book deals with decision modelling techniques that can be used to estimate the value for money of various interventions including medical devices, surgical procedures, diagnostic technologies, and pharmaceuticals. Particular emphasis is placed on the importance of the appropriate representation of uncertainty in the evaluative process and the implication this uncertainty has for decision making and the need for future research. This highly practical guide takes the reader through the key principles and approaches of modelling techniques. It begins with the basics of constructing different forms of the model, the population of the model with input parameter estimates, analysis of the results, and progression to the holistic view of models as a valuable tool for informing future research exercises. Case studies and exercises are supported with online templates and solutions. This book will help analysts understand the contribution of decision-analytic modelling to the evaluation of health care programmes. ABOUT THE SERIES: Economic evaluation of health interventions is a growing specialist field, and this series of practical handbooks will tackle, in-depth, topics superficially addressed in more general health economics books. Each volume will include illustrative material, case histories and worked examples to encourage the reader to apply the methods discussed, with supporting material provided online. This series is aimed at health economists in academia, the pharmaceutical industry and the health sector, those on advanced health economics courses, and health researchers in associated fields.

The World in the Model

Author : Mary S. Morgan
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139560417
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (395 download)

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Book Synopsis The World in the Model by : Mary S. Morgan

Download or read book The World in the Model written by Mary S. Morgan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2012-09-17 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: During the last two centuries, the way economic science is done has changed radically: it has become a social science based on mathematical models in place of words. This book describes and analyses that change - both historically and philosophically - using a series of case studies to illuminate the nature and the implications of these changes. It is not a technical book; it is written for the intelligent person who wants to understand how economics works from the inside out. This book will be of interest to economists and science studies scholars (historians, sociologists and philosophers of science). But it also aims at a wider readership in the public intellectual sphere, building on the current interest in all things economic and on the recent failure of the so-called economic model, which has shaped our beliefs and the world we live in.

Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series

Author : Timo Teräsvirta
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 9780199587148
Total Pages : 592 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (871 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series by : Timo Teräsvirta

Download or read book Modelling Nonlinear Economic Time Series written by Timo Teräsvirta and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2010-12-16 with total page 592 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains an extensive up-to-date overview of nonlinear time series models and their application to modelling economic relationships. It considers nonlinear models in stationary and nonstationary frameworks, and both parametric and nonparametric models are discussed. The book contains examples of nonlinear models in economic theory and presents the most common nonlinear time series models. Importantly, it shows the reader how to apply these models in practice. For thispurpose, the building of various nonlinear models with its three stages of model building: specification, estimation and evaluation, is discussed in detail and is illustrated by several examples involving both economic and non-economic data. Since estimation of nonlinear time series models is carried outusing numerical algorithms, the book contains a chapter on estimating parametric nonlinear models and another on estimating nonparametric ones.Forecasting is a major reason for building time series models, linear or nonlinear. The book contains a discussion on forecasting with nonlinear models, both parametric and nonparametric, and considers numerical techniques necessary for computing multi-period forecasts from them. The main focus of the book is on models of the conditional mean, but models of the conditional variance, mainly those of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity, receive attention as well. A separate chapter isdevoted to state space models. As a whole, the book is an indispensable tool for researchers interested in nonlinear time series and is also suitable for teaching courses in econometrics and time series analysis.

Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1447150104
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (471 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods by : Tshilidzi Marwala

Download or read book Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods written by Tshilidzi Marwala and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-02 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods examines the application of artificial intelligence methods to model economic data. Traditionally, economic modeling has been modeled in the linear domain where the principles of superposition are valid. The application of artificial intelligence for economic modeling allows for a flexible multi-order non-linear modeling. In addition, game theory has largely been applied in economic modeling. However, the inherent limitation of game theory when dealing with many player games encourages the use of multi-agent systems for modeling economic phenomena. The artificial intelligence techniques used to model economic data include: multi-layer perceptron neural networks radial basis functions support vector machines rough sets genetic algorithm particle swarm optimization simulated annealing multi-agent system incremental learning fuzzy networks Signal processing techniques are explored to analyze economic data, and these techniques are the time domain methods, time-frequency domain methods and fractals dimension approaches. Interesting economic problems such as causality versus correlation, simulating the stock market, modeling and controling inflation, option pricing, modeling economic growth as well as portfolio optimization are examined. The relationship between economic dependency and interstate conflict is explored, and knowledge on how economics is useful to foster peace – and vice versa – is investigated. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods deals with the issue of causality in the non-linear domain and applies the automatic relevance determination, the evidence framework, Bayesian approach and Granger causality to understand causality and correlation. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods makes an important contribution to the area of econometrics, and is a valuable source of reference for graduate students, researchers and financial practitioners.

Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models

Author : Donald W. Katzner
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 0472109383
Total Pages : 502 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (721 download)

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Book Synopsis Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models by : Donald W. Katzner

Download or read book Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models written by Donald W. Katzner and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 502 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Formal economic analysis using Shackle's ideas of historical time and nonprobabilistic uncertainty

Economic Models: Methods, Theory And Applications

Author : Dipak R Basu
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814469408
Total Pages : 248 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (144 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Models: Methods, Theory And Applications by : Dipak R Basu

Download or read book Economic Models: Methods, Theory And Applications written by Dipak R Basu and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2009-04-17 with total page 248 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Model Building is the most fruitful area of economics, designed to solve real-world problems using all available methods such as mathematical, computational and analytical, without distinction. Wherever necessary, we should not be reluctant to develop new techniques, whether mathematical or computational. That is the philosophy of this volume.The volume is divided into three distinct parts: Methods, Theory and Applications. The Methods section is in turn subdivided into Mathematical Programming and Econometrics and Adaptive Control System, which are widely used in econometric analysis. The impacts of fiscal policy in a regime with independent monetary authority and dynamic models of environmental taxation are considered.In the section on “Modelling Business Organization”, a model of a Japanese organization is presented. Furthermore, a model suitable for an efficient budget management of a health service unit by applying goal programming method is analyzed, taking into account various socio-economic factors. This is followed by a section on “Modelling National Economies”, in which macroeconometric models for the EU member countries are analyzed, to find instruments that stabilize inflation with coordinated action.

Modeling Financial Time Series with S-PLUS

Author : Eric Zivot
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 0387217630
Total Pages : 632 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (872 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling Financial Time Series with S-PLUS by : Eric Zivot

Download or read book Modeling Financial Time Series with S-PLUS written by Eric Zivot and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 632 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of financial econometrics has exploded over the last decade This book represents an integration of theory, methods, and examples using the S-PLUS statistical modeling language and the S+FinMetrics module to facilitate the practice of financial econometrics. This is the first book to show the power of S-PLUS for the analysis of time series data. It is written for researchers and practitioners in the finance industry, academic researchers in economics and finance, and advanced MBA and graduate students in economics and finance. Readers are assumed to have a basic knowledge of S-PLUS and a solid grounding in basic statistics and time series concepts. This Second Edition is updated to cover S+FinMetrics 2.0 and includes new chapters on copulas, nonlinear regime switching models, continuous-time financial models, generalized method of moments, semi-nonparametric conditional density models, and the efficient method of moments. Eric Zivot is an associate professor and Gary Waterman Distinguished Scholar in the Economics Department, and adjunct associate professor of finance in the Business School at the University of Washington. He regularly teaches courses on econometric theory, financial econometrics and time series econometrics, and is the recipient of the Henry T. Buechel Award for Outstanding Teaching. He is an associate editor of Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. He has published papers in the leading econometrics journals, including Econometrica, Econometric Theory, the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Journal of Econometrics, and the Review of Economics and Statistics. Jiahui Wang is an employee of Ronin Capital LLC. He received a Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Washington in 1997. He has published in leading econometrics journals such as Econometrica and Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, and is the Principal Investigator of National Science Foundation SBIR grants. In 2002 Dr. Wang was selected as one of the "2000 Outstanding Scholars of the 21st Century" by International Biographical Centre.

Economic Models for Policy Making

Author : Solomon Cohen
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1136220879
Total Pages : 419 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (362 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Models for Policy Making by : Solomon Cohen

Download or read book Economic Models for Policy Making written by Solomon Cohen and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-05-02 with total page 419 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past decades, many different kinds of models have been developed that have been of use to policy makers, but until now the different approaches have not been brought together with a view to enhancing the systematic unification and evaluation of these models. This new volume aims to fill this gap by bringing together four decades’ worth of work by S. I. Cohen on economic modelling for policy making. Work on older models has been rewritten and brought fully up to date, and these older models have therefore been brought back to the fore, both to assess how they influenced more recent models and to see how they could be used today. The focus of the book is on models for development policies in developing economies, but there are some chapters that relate to economic policies in transition and developed economies. The policy areas covered are of typical interest in developing and transition economies. They include those relating to trade liberalization reforms, sustainable development, industrial development, agrarian reform, growth and distribution, human resource development and education, public goods and income transfers. Each chapter contains a brief assessment of the empirical literature on the economic effects of the policy measures discussed in the chapter. The book presents a platform of economic modelling that can serve as a refresher for practising professionals, as well as a reference companion for graduates engaging in economic modelling and policy preparations.

Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic Time Series

Author : Terence C. Mills
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030763595
Total Pages : 219 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (37 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic Time Series by : Terence C. Mills

Download or read book Modelling Trends and Cycles in Economic Time Series written by Terence C. Mills and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-07-29 with total page 219 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modelling trends and cycles in economic time series has a long history, with the use of linear trends and moving averages forming the basic tool kit of economists until the 1970s. Several developments in econometrics then led to an overhaul of the techniques used to extract trends and cycles from time series. In this second edition, Terence Mills expands on the research in the area of trends and cycles over the last (almost) two decades, to highlight to students and researchers the variety of techniques and the considerations that underpin their choice for modelling trends and cycles.

Dynamic Economic Models in Discrete Time

Author : Brian Ferguson
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134440545
Total Pages : 347 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (344 download)

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Book Synopsis Dynamic Economic Models in Discrete Time by : Brian Ferguson

Download or read book Dynamic Economic Models in Discrete Time written by Brian Ferguson and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2003-07-10 with total page 347 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new book will be welcomed by econometricians and students of econometrics everywhere. Introducing discrete time modelling techniques and bridging the gap between economics and econometric literature, this ambitious book is sure to be an invaluable resource for all those to whom the terms unit roots, cointegration and error correction forms, ch

Regional Econometric Modeling

Author : M. Ray Perryman
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9400932677
Total Pages : 263 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Regional Econometric Modeling by : M. Ray Perryman

Download or read book Regional Econometric Modeling written by M. Ray Perryman and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is the first volume of the International Series in Economic Model ing, a series designed to summarize current issues and procedures in applied modeling within various fields of economics and to offer new or alternative approaches to prevailing problems. In selecting the subject area for the first volume, we were attracted by the area to which applied modeling efforts are increasingly being drawn, regional economics and its associated subfields. Applied modeling is a broad rubric even when the focus is restricted to econometric modeling issues. Regional econometric modeling has posted a record of rapid growth during the last two decades and has become an established field of research and application. Econometric models of states and large urban areas have become commonplace, but the existence of such models does not signal an end to further development of regional econ ometric methods and models. Many issues such as structural specification, level of geographic detail, data constraints, forecasting integrity, and syn thesis with other regional modeling techniques will continue to be sources of concern and will prompt further research efforts. The chapters of this volume reflect many of these issues. A brief synopsis of each contribution is provided below: Richard Weber offers an overview of regional econometric models by discussing theoretical specification, nature of variables, and ultimate useful ness of such models. For an illustration, Weber describes the specification of the econometric model of New Jersey.