Modelling And Forecasting Intraday Market Risk With Application To Stock Indices

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Modelling and Forecasting Intraday Market Risk with Application to Stock Indices

Author : Abhay Kumar Singh
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling and Forecasting Intraday Market Risk with Application to Stock Indices by : Abhay Kumar Singh

Download or read book Modelling and Forecasting Intraday Market Risk with Application to Stock Indices written by Abhay Kumar Singh and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the afternoon of May 6, 2010 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plunged about 1000 points (about 9%) in a matter of minutes before rebounding almost as quickly. This was the biggest one day point decline on an intraday basis in the DJIA's history. An almost similar dramatic change in intraday volatility was observed on April 4, 2000 when the DJIA dropped by 4.8%. These historical events present a very compelling argument for the need for robust econometrics models which can forecast intraday asset volatility. There are numerous models available in the finance literature to model financial asset volatility. Various Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) time series models are widely used for modelling daily (end of day) volatility of the financial assets. The family of basic GARCH models works well for modelling daily volatility but they are proven to be not as efficient for intraday volatility. The last two decades have seen some research augmenting the GARCH family of models to forecast intraday volatility, the Multiplicative Component GARCH (MCGARCH) model of Engle & Sokalska (2012) being the most recent of them. MCGARCH models the conditional variance as the multiplicative product of daily, diurnal, and stochastic intraday volatility of the financial asset. In this paper we use the MCGARCH model to forecast the intraday volatility of Australia's S&P/ASX-50 stock market index and the USA Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock market index. We also use the model to forecast their intraday Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). As the model requires a daily volatility component, we test a GARCH based estimate of the daily volatility component against the daily realized volatility (RV) estimates obtained from the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for Realized Volatility (HARRV). The results in the paper show that 1 minute VaR forecasts obtained from the MCGARCH model using the HARRV based daily volatility component outperform the ones obtained using the GARCH based daily volatility component.

Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets

Author : Stephen Satchell
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080471420
Total Pages : 428 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets by : Stephen Satchell

Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-02-24 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets, Third Edition assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition:* What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton* Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo* A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish* Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir* An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling

VAR and Intraday Volatility Forecasting

Author : Timotheos Angelidis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 12 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis VAR and Intraday Volatility Forecasting by : Timotheos Angelidis

Download or read book VAR and Intraday Volatility Forecasting written by Timotheos Angelidis and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate the performance of symmetric and asymmetric ARCH models in forecasting one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and realized intra day volatility of two equity indices in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). Under the framework of three distributional assumptions, we find out that the most appropriate method for the Bank index in forecasting the one-day-ahead VaR is the symmetric model with normally distributed innovations, while the asymmetric model with asymmetric conditional distribution applies for the General index. On the other hand, the asymmetric model tracks closer the one-step-ahead intra day realized volatility with conditional normally distributed innovations for the Bank index but with asymmetric and leptokurtic distributed innovations for the General index. Therefore, as concerns the Greek stock market, there are adequate methods for predicting market risk but it does not seem to be a specific model that is the most accurate for all the forecasting tasks.

Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets

Author : Eugenie M.J.H. Hol
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 147575129X
Total Pages : 168 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets by : Eugenie M.J.H. Hol

Download or read book Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets written by Eugenie M.J.H. Hol and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-03-09 with total page 168 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets describes the existing techniques for the measurement and estimation of volatility in international stock markets with emphasis on the SV model and its empirical application. Eugenie Hol develops various extensions of the SV model, which allow for additional variables in both the mean and the variance equation. In addition, the forecasting performance of SV models is compared not only to that of the well-established GARCH model but also to implied volatility and so-called realised volatility models which are based on intraday volatility measures. The intended readers are financial professionals who seek to obtain more accurate volatility forecasts and wish to gain insight about state-of-the-art volatility modelling techniques and their empirical value, and academic researchers and students who are interested in financial market volatility and want to obtain an updated overview of the various methods available in this area.

VaR and Intra-Day Volatility Forecasting

Author : Timotheos Angelidis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 12 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)

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Book Synopsis VaR and Intra-Day Volatility Forecasting by : Timotheos Angelidis

Download or read book VaR and Intra-Day Volatility Forecasting written by Timotheos Angelidis and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We evaluate the performance of symmetric and asymmetric ARCH models in forecasting one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and realized intra-day volatility of two equity indices in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE). Under the framework of three distributional assumptions, we find out that the most appropriate method for the Bank index in forecasting the one-day-ahead VaR is the symmetric model with normally distributed innovations, while the asymmetric model with asymmetric conditional distribution applies for the General index. On the other hand, the asymmetric model tracks closer the one-step-ahead intra-day realized volatility with conditional normally distributed innovations for the Bank index but with asymmetric and leptokurtic distributed innovations for the General index. Therefore, as concerns the Greek stock market, there are adequate methods for predicting market risk but it does not seem to be a specific model that is the most accurate for all the forecasting tasks.

Multiple-Days-Ahead Value-At-Risk and Expected Shortfall Forecasting for Stock Indices, Commodities and Exchange Rates

Author : Stavros Antonios Degiannakis
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Multiple-Days-Ahead Value-At-Risk and Expected Shortfall Forecasting for Stock Indices, Commodities and Exchange Rates by : Stavros Antonios Degiannakis

Download or read book Multiple-Days-Ahead Value-At-Risk and Expected Shortfall Forecasting for Stock Indices, Commodities and Exchange Rates written by Stavros Antonios Degiannakis and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In order to provide reliable Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) forecasts, this paper attempts to investigate whether an inter-day or an intra-day model provides accurate predictions. We investigate the performance of inter-day and intra-day volatility models by estimating the AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-skT and the AR(1)-HAR-RV-skT frameworks, respectively. This paper is based on the recommendations of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. Regarding the forecasting performances, the exploitation of intra-day information does not appear to improve the accuracy of the and forecasts for the 10-steps-ahead and 20- steps-ahead for the 95%, 97.5% and 99% significance levels. On the contrary, the GARCH specification, based on the inter-day information set, is the superior model for forecasting the multiple-days-ahead and measurements. The intra-day volatility model is not as appropriate as it was expected to be for each of the different asset classes; stock indices, commodities and exchange rates.The multi-period and forecasts are estimated for a range of datasets (stock indices, commodities, foreign exchange rates) in order to provide risk managers and financial institutions with information relating the performance of the inter-day and intra-day volatility models across various markets. The inter-day specification predicts and measures adequately at a 95% confidence level. Regarding the 97.5% confidence level that has been recently proposed in the revised 2013 version of Basel III, the GARCH-skT specification provides accurate forecasts of the risk measures for stock indices and exchange rates, but not for commodities (i.e. Silver and Gold). In the case of the 99% confidence level, we do not achieve sufficiently accurate and forecasts for all the assets.

Systemic Risk Tomography

Author : Monica Billio
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0081011768
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (81 download)

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Book Synopsis Systemic Risk Tomography by : Monica Billio

Download or read book Systemic Risk Tomography written by Monica Billio and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-11-25 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In April 2010 Europe was shocked by the Greek financial turmoil. At that time, the global financial crisis, which started in the summer of 2007 and reached systemic dimensions in September 2008 with the Lehman Brothers’ crash, took a new course. An adverse feedback loop between sovereign and bank risks reflected into bubble-like spreads, as if financial markets had received a wake-up call concerning the disregarded structural vulnerability of economies at risk.These events inspired the SYRTO project to “think and rethink the economic and financial system and to conceive it as an “ensemble of Sovereigns and Banks with other Financial Intermediaries and Corporations. Systemic Risk Tomography: Signals, Measurement and Transmission Channels proposes a novel way to explore the financial system by sectioning each part of it and analyzing all relevant inter-relationships. The financial system is inspected as a biological entity to identify the main risk signals and to provide the correct measures of prevention and intervention. Explores the economic and financial system of Sovereigns, Banks, other Financial Intermediaries, and Corporations Presents the financial system as a biological entity to be explored in order to identify the main risk signals and provide the right measures of prevention and interventions Offers a new, systemic-based approach to construct a hierarchical, internally coherent framework to be used in developing an effective early warning system

Volatility and Correlation

Author : Riccardo Rebonato
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470091401
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility and Correlation by : Riccardo Rebonato

Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School

Prediction of International Stock Market Movements Using a Statistical Time Series Analysis Method

Author : Jehan Shareef
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780692498101
Total Pages : 112 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (981 download)

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Book Synopsis Prediction of International Stock Market Movements Using a Statistical Time Series Analysis Method by : Jehan Shareef

Download or read book Prediction of International Stock Market Movements Using a Statistical Time Series Analysis Method written by Jehan Shareef and published by . This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 112 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

How can I get started Investing in the Stock Market

Author : Lokesh Badolia
Publisher : Educreation Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 63 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis How can I get started Investing in the Stock Market by : Lokesh Badolia

Download or read book How can I get started Investing in the Stock Market written by Lokesh Badolia and published by Educreation Publishing. This book was released on 2016-10-27 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is well-researched by the author, in which he has shared the experience and knowledge of some very much experienced and renowned entities from stock market. We want that everybody should have the knowledge regarding the different aspects of stock market, which would encourage people to invest and earn without any fear. This book is just a step forward toward the knowledge of market.

The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory

Author : Vladimir Vapnik
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1475732643
Total Pages : 324 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory by : Vladimir Vapnik

Download or read book The Nature of Statistical Learning Theory written by Vladimir Vapnik and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-06-29 with total page 324 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this book is to discuss the fundamental ideas which lie behind the statistical theory of learning and generalization. It considers learning as a general problem of function estimation based on empirical data. Omitting proofs and technical details, the author concentrates on discussing the main results of learning theory and their connections to fundamental problems in statistics. This second edition contains three new chapters devoted to further development of the learning theory and SVM techniques. Written in a readable and concise style, the book is intended for statisticians, mathematicians, physicists, and computer scientists.

Econometric Modelling of Stock Market Intraday Activity

Author : Luc Bauwens
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 147573381X
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (757 download)

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Book Synopsis Econometric Modelling of Stock Market Intraday Activity by : Luc Bauwens

Download or read book Econometric Modelling of Stock Market Intraday Activity written by Luc Bauwens and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-11-11 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past 25 years, applied econometrics has undergone tremen dous changes, with active developments in fields of research such as time series, labor econometrics, financial econometrics and simulation based methods. Time series analysis has been an active field of research since the seminal work by Box and Jenkins (1976), who introduced a gen eral framework in which time series can be analyzed. In the world of financial econometrics and the application of time series techniques, the ARCH model of Engle (1982) has shifted the focus from the modelling of the process in itself to the modelling of the volatility of the process. In less than 15 years, it has become one of the most successful fields of 1 applied econometric research with hundreds of published papers. As an alternative to the ARCH modelling of the volatility, Taylor (1986) intro duced the stochastic volatility model, whose features are quite similar to the ARCH specification but which involves an unobserved or latent component for the volatility. While being more difficult to estimate than usual GARCH models, stochastic volatility models have found numerous applications in the modelling of volatility and more particularly in the econometric part of option pricing formulas. Although modelling volatil ity is one of the best known examples of applied financial econometrics, other topics (factor models, present value relationships, term structure 2 models) were also successfully tackled.

Financial Risk Forecasting

Author : Jon Danielsson
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1119977118
Total Pages : 307 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (199 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Risk Forecasting by : Jon Danielsson

Download or read book Financial Risk Forecasting written by Jon Danielsson and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-04-20 with total page 307 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial Risk Forecasting is a complete introduction to practical quantitative risk management, with a focus on market risk. Derived from the authors teaching notes and years spent training practitioners in risk management techniques, it brings together the three key disciplines of finance, statistics and modeling (programming), to provide a thorough grounding in risk management techniques. Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated. Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book. The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing. The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.

Mathematical Analysis and Applications in Modeling

Author : Priti Kumar Roy
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 9811504229
Total Pages : 518 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (115 download)

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Book Synopsis Mathematical Analysis and Applications in Modeling by : Priti Kumar Roy

Download or read book Mathematical Analysis and Applications in Modeling written by Priti Kumar Roy and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-03-10 with total page 518 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects select papers presented at the “International Conference on Mathematical Analysis and Application in Modeling,” held at Jadavpur University, Kolkata, India, on 9–12 January 2018. It discusses new results in cutting-edge areas of several branches of mathematics and applications, including analysis, topology, dynamical systems (nonlinear, topological), mathematical modeling, optimization and mathematical biology. The conference has emerged as a powerful forum, bringing together leading academics, industry experts and researchers, and offering them a venue to discuss, interact and collaborate in order to stimulate the advancement of mathematics and its industrial applications.

Neural Computing for Advanced Applications

Author : Haijun Zhang
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 981157670X
Total Pages : 542 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (115 download)

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Book Synopsis Neural Computing for Advanced Applications by : Haijun Zhang

Download or read book Neural Computing for Advanced Applications written by Haijun Zhang and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-12 with total page 542 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents refereed proceedings of the First International Conference on Neural Computing for Advanced Applications, NCAA 2020, held in July, 2020. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic the conference was held online. The 36 full papers and 7 short papers were thorougly reviewed and selected from a total of 113 qualified submissions. The papers present resent research on such topics as neural network theory, and cognitive sciences, machine learning, data mining, data security & privacy protection, and data-driven applications, computational intelligence, nature-inspired optimizers, and their engineering applications, cloud/edge/fog computing, the Internet of Things/Vehicles (IoT/IoV), and their system optimization, control systems, network synchronization, system integration, and industrial artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, neuro-fuzzy systems, decision making, and their applications in management sciences, computer vision, image processing, and their industrial applications, and natural language processing, machine translation, knowledge graphs, and their applications.

Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data

Author : Stavros Degiannakis
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137396490
Total Pages : 411 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (373 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data by : Stavros Degiannakis

Download or read book Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data written by Stavros Degiannakis and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-04-29 with total page 411 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global financial crisis has reopened discussion surrounding the use of appropriate theoretical financial frameworks to reflect the current economic climate. There is a need for more sophisticated analytical concepts which take into account current quantitative changes and unprecedented turbulence in the financial markets. This book provides a comprehensive guide to the quantitative analysis of high frequency financial data in the light of current events and contemporary issues, using the latest empirical research and theory. It highlights and explains the shortcomings of theoretical frameworks and provides an explanation of high-frequency theory, emphasising ways in which to critically apply this knowledge within a financial context. Modelling and Forecasting High Frequency Financial Data combines traditional and updated theories and applies them to real-world financial market situations. It will be a valuable and accessible resource for anyone wishing to understand quantitative analysis and modelling in current financial markets.

Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics

Author : Cheng-Few Lee
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9781461477495
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (774 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics by : Cheng-Few Lee

Download or read book Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics written by Cheng-Few Lee and published by Springer. This book was released on 2014-09-28 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Handbook of Financial Econometrics and Statistics provides, in four volumes and over 100 chapters, a comprehensive overview of the primary methodologies in econometrics and statistics as applied to financial research. Including overviews of key concepts by the editors and in-depth contributions from leading scholars around the world, the Handbook is the definitive resource for both classic and cutting-edge theories, policies, and analytical techniques in the field. Volume 1 (Parts I and II) covers all of the essential theoretical and empirical approaches. Volumes 2, 3, and 4 feature contributed entries that showcase the application of financial econometrics and statistics to such topics as asset pricing, investment and portfolio research, option pricing, mutual funds, and financial accounting research. Throughout, the Handbook offers illustrative case examples and applications, worked equations, and extensive references, and includes both subject and author indices.