Modelling And Decisions In Economics

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Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation

Author : Andrew Briggs
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191004952
Total Pages : 269 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation by : Andrew Briggs

Download or read book Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation written by Andrew Briggs and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2006-08-17 with total page 269 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In financially constrained health systems across the world, increasing emphasis is being placed on the ability to demonstrate that health care interventions are not only effective, but also cost-effective. This book deals with decision modelling techniques that can be used to estimate the value for money of various interventions including medical devices, surgical procedures, diagnostic technologies, and pharmaceuticals. Particular emphasis is placed on the importance of the appropriate representation of uncertainty in the evaluative process and the implication this uncertainty has for decision making and the need for future research. This highly practical guide takes the reader through the key principles and approaches of modelling techniques. It begins with the basics of constructing different forms of the model, the population of the model with input parameter estimates, analysis of the results, and progression to the holistic view of models as a valuable tool for informing future research exercises. Case studies and exercises are supported with online templates and solutions. This book will help analysts understand the contribution of decision-analytic modelling to the evaluation of health care programmes. ABOUT THE SERIES: Economic evaluation of health interventions is a growing specialist field, and this series of practical handbooks will tackle, in-depth, topics superficially addressed in more general health economics books. Each volume will include illustrative material, case histories and worked examples to encourage the reader to apply the methods discussed, with supporting material provided online. This series is aimed at health economists in academia, the pharmaceutical industry and the health sector, those on advanced health economics courses, and health researchers in associated fields.

Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition

Author : Roger B. Myerson
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 0262355604
Total Pages : 569 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (623 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition by : Roger B. Myerson

Download or read book Probability Models for Economic Decisions, second edition written by Roger B. Myerson and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2019-12-17 with total page 569 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risk and economic decisions, using spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty. This textbook offers an introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions. It takes a learn-by-doing approach, teaching the student to use spreadsheets to represent and simulate uncertainty and to analyze the effect of such uncertainty on an economic decision. Students in applied business and economics can more easily grasp difficult analytical methods with Excel spreadsheets. The book covers the basic ideas of probability, how to simulate random variables, and how to compute conditional probabilities via Monte Carlo simulation. The first four chapters use a large collection of probability distributions to simulate a range of problems involving worker efficiency, market entry, oil exploration, repeated investment, and subjective belief elicitation. The book then covers correlation and multivariate normal random variables; conditional expectation; optimization of decision variables, with discussions of the strategic value of information, decision trees, game theory, and adverse selection; risk sharing and finance; dynamic models of growth; dynamic models of arrivals; and model risk. New material in this second edition includes two new chapters on additional dynamic models and model risk; new sections in every chapter; many new end-of-chapter exercises; and coverage of such topics as simulation model workflow, models of probabilistic electoral forecasting, and real options. The book comes equipped with Simtools, an open-source, free software used througout the book, which allows students to conduct Monte Carlo simulations seamlessly in Excel.

Nonlinear Models for Economic Decision Processes

Author : Ionut Purica
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 1848164270
Total Pages : 177 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (481 download)

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Book Synopsis Nonlinear Models for Economic Decision Processes by : Ionut Purica

Download or read book Nonlinear Models for Economic Decision Processes written by Ionut Purica and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2010 with total page 177 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using models, developed in one branch of science, to describe similar behaviors encountered in a different one, is the essence of a synergetic approach. A wide range of topics has been developed including Agent-based models, econophysics, socio-economic networks, information, bounded rationality and learning in economics, markets as complex adaptive systems evolutionary economics, multiscale analysis and modeling, nonlinear dynamics and econometrics, physics of risk, statistical and probabilistic methods in economics and finance. Complexity. This publication concentrates on process behavior of economic systems and building models that stem from Haken's, Prigogine's, Taylor's work as well as from nuclear physics models.

Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation

Author : Andrew H. Briggs
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 260 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation by : Andrew H. Briggs

Download or read book Decision Modelling for Health Economic Evaluation written by Andrew H. Briggs and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In financially constrained health systems across the world, increasing emphasis is being placed on the ability to demonstrate that health care interventions are not only effective, but also cost-effective. This book deals with decision modelling techniques that can be used to estimate the value for money of various interventions including medical devices, surgical procedures, diagnostic technologies, and pharmaceuticals. Particular emphasis is placed on the importance of the appropriate representation of uncertainty in the evaluative process and the implication this uncertainty has for decision making and the need for future research. This highly practical guide takes the reader through the key principles and approaches of modelling techniques. It begins with the basics of constructing different forms of the model, the population of the model with input parameter estimates, analysis of the results, and progression to the holistic view of models as a valuable tool for informing future research exercises. Case studies and exercises are supported with online templates and solutions. This book will help analysts understand the contribution of decision-analytic modelling to the evaluation of health care programmes. ABOUT THE SERIES: Economic evaluation of health interventions is a growing specialist field, and this series of practical handbooks will tackle, in-depth, topics superficially addressed in more general health economics books. Each volume will include illustrative material, case histories and worked examples to encourage the reader to apply the methods discussed, with supporting material provided online. This series is aimed at health economists in academia, the pharmaceutical industry and the health sector, those on advanced health economics courses, and health researchers in associated fields.

Economic Modeling and Inference

Author : Bent Jesper Christensen
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400833108
Total Pages : 488 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Modeling and Inference by : Bent Jesper Christensen

Download or read book Economic Modeling and Inference written by Bent Jesper Christensen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-07-13 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Modeling and Inference takes econometrics to a new level by demonstrating how to combine modern economic theory with the latest statistical inference methods to get the most out of economic data. This graduate-level textbook draws applications from both microeconomics and macroeconomics, paying special attention to financial and labor economics, with an emphasis throughout on what observations can tell us about stochastic dynamic models of rational optimizing behavior and equilibrium. Bent Jesper Christensen and Nicholas Kiefer show how parameters often thought estimable in applications are not identified even in simple dynamic programming models, and they investigate the roles of extensions, including measurement error, imperfect control, and random utility shocks for inference. When all implications of optimization and equilibrium are imposed in the empirical procedures, the resulting estimation problems are often nonstandard, with the estimators exhibiting nonregular asymptotic behavior such as short-ranked covariance, superconsistency, and non-Gaussianity. Christensen and Kiefer explore these properties in detail, covering areas including job search models of the labor market, asset pricing, option pricing, marketing, and retirement planning. Ideal for researchers and practitioners as well as students, Economic Modeling and Inference uses real-world data to illustrate how to derive the best results using a combination of theory and cutting-edge econometric techniques. Covers identification and estimation of dynamic programming models Treats sources of error--measurement error, random utility, and imperfect control Features financial applications including asset pricing, option pricing, and optimal hedging Describes labor applications including job search, equilibrium search, and retirement Illustrates the wide applicability of the approach using micro, macro, and marketing examples

Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World

Author : Morris Altman
Publisher : Academic Press
ISBN 13 : 0128131780
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World by : Morris Altman

Download or read book Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World written by Morris Altman and published by Academic Press. This book was released on 2020-05-22 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Smart Economic Decision-Making in a Complex World is a fresh and reality-based perspective on decision-making with significant implications for analysis, self-understanding and policy. The book examines the conditions under which smart people generate outcomes that improve their place of work, their household and society. Within this work, the curious reader will find interesting open questions on many fascinating areas of current economic debate, including, the role of realistic assumptions robust model building, understanding how and when non-neoclassical behavior is best practice, why the assumption of smart decision-makers is best to understand and explain our economies and societies, and under what conditions individuals can make the best possible choices for themselves and society at large. Additional sections cover when and how efficiency is achieved, why inefficiencies can persist, when and how consumer welfare is maximized, and what benchmarks should be used to determine efficiency and rationality. Makes the case for ‘smart and rational’ decision-making as a context-dependent rational process that is framed by socio-cultural environment and conditioned by institutional capacities Explains how incorporation of the ‘smart’ decision-maker concept into economic thought improves our understanding of how, why and when people generate certain outcomes Explores how economic efficiency can be achieved, individual preferences realized, and social welfare maximized through the use of ‘smart and rational’ approaches

Tools and Techniques for Economic Decision Analysis

Author : Stankovi?, Jelena
Publisher : IGI Global
ISBN 13 : 1522509607
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (225 download)

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Book Synopsis Tools and Techniques for Economic Decision Analysis by : Stankovi?, Jelena

Download or read book Tools and Techniques for Economic Decision Analysis written by Stankovi?, Jelena and published by IGI Global. This book was released on 2016-10-31 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The success of any business relies heavily on the evaluation and improvement on current strategies and processes. Such progress can be facilitated by implementing more effective decision-making systems. Tools and Techniques for Economic Decision Analysis provides a thorough overview of decision models and methodologies in the context of business economics. Highlighting a variety of relevant issues on finance, economic policy, and firms and networks, this book is an ideal reference source for managers, professionals, students, and academics interested in emerging developments for decision analysis.

Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models

Author : Donald W. Katzner
Publisher : University of Michigan Press
ISBN 13 : 0472109383
Total Pages : 502 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (721 download)

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Book Synopsis Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models by : Donald W. Katzner

Download or read book Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models written by Donald W. Katzner and published by University of Michigan Press. This book was released on 1998 with total page 502 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Formal economic analysis using Shackle's ideas of historical time and nonprobabilistic uncertainty

Modeling Complexity In Economic And Social Systems

Author : Frank Schweitzer
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814488356
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (144 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling Complexity In Economic And Social Systems by : Frank Schweitzer

Download or read book Modeling Complexity In Economic And Social Systems written by Frank Schweitzer and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2002-12-09 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economics and the social sciences are, in fact, the “hard” sciences, as Herbert Simon argued, because the complexity of the problems dealt with cannot simply be reduced to analytically solvable models or decomposed into separate subprocesses. Nevertheless, in recent years, the emerging interdisciplinary “sciences of complexity” have provided new methods and tools for tackling these problems, ranging from complex data analysis to sophisticated computer simulations. In particular, advanced methods developed in the natural sciences have recently also been applied to social and economic problems.The twenty-one chapters of this book reflect this modern development from various modeling perspectives (such as agent-based models, evolutionary game theory, reinforcement learning and neural network techniques, time series analysis, non-equilibrium macroscopic dynamics) and for a broad range of socio-economic applications (market dynamics, technological evolution, spatial dynamics and economic growth, decision processes, and agent societies). They jointly demonstrate a shift of perspective in economics and the social sciences that is allowing a new outlook in this field to emerge.

Evidence-based Decisions and Economics

Author : Ian Shemilt
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1444320408
Total Pages : 216 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (443 download)

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Book Synopsis Evidence-based Decisions and Economics by : Ian Shemilt

Download or read book Evidence-based Decisions and Economics written by Ian Shemilt and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-22 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The need for evidence-based decisions that take account of botheffectiveness and economics is greater now than ever. Using casestudies and illustrative examples throughout the authors describehow the activities and outputs of evidence synthesis, systematicreview, economic analysis and decision-making interact within andacross different spheres of health and social policy and practice. Expanding on the first edition the book now covers approaches toevidence synthesis that combine economics and systematic reviewmethods in the applied fields of social welfare, education andcriminal justice, as well as health care. Written by economists andhealth services researchers closely involved in developingevidence-based policy and practice it showcases currentstate-of-the-art methodology and will be an invaluable read for allpolicy-makers and practitioners using evidence to inform decisions,analysts conducting research to support decisions and studentsdiscovering the need for evidence-based decisions to incorporateeconomic perspectives and evidence.

Models of Bounded Rationality

Author : Univ Of Chicago
Publisher : Mit Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262519434
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (194 download)

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Book Synopsis Models of Bounded Rationality by : Univ Of Chicago

Download or read book Models of Bounded Rationality written by Univ Of Chicago and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 1997-07 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Offering alternative models based on such concepts as satisficing(acceptance of viable choices that may not be the undiscoverableoptimum) and bounded rationality (the limited extent to which rationalcalculation can direct human behavior), Simon shows concretely whymore empirical research based on experiments and direct observation, rather than just statistical analysis of economic aggregates, isneeded.

Probability Models for Economic Decisions

Author : Roger B. Myerson
Publisher : Duxbury Press
ISBN 13 : 9780534423810
Total Pages : 397 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (238 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability Models for Economic Decisions by : Roger B. Myerson

Download or read book Probability Models for Economic Decisions written by Roger B. Myerson and published by Duxbury Press. This book was released on 2005 with total page 397 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learn to use probability in complex realistic situations with PROBABILITY MODELS FOR ECONOMIC DECISIONS. This introduction to the use of probability models for analyzing risks and economic decisions uses Microsoft Excel spreadsheets for the analytic work. As a result of the emphasis on spreadsheet modeling, you'll also develop sophisticated spreadsheet skills.

Modeling Strategic Behavior: A Graduate Introduction To Game Theory And Mechanism Design

Author : George J Mailath
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9813239956
Total Pages : 364 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (132 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling Strategic Behavior: A Graduate Introduction To Game Theory And Mechanism Design by : George J Mailath

Download or read book Modeling Strategic Behavior: A Graduate Introduction To Game Theory And Mechanism Design written by George J Mailath and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2018-12-18 with total page 364 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is impossible to understand modern economics without knowledge of the basic tools of gametheory and mechanism design. This book provides a graduate-level introduction to the economic modeling of strategic behavior. The goal is to teach Economics doctoral students the tools of game theory and mechanism design that all economists should know.

Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics

Author : Songsak Sriboonchitta
Publisher : Springer Nature
ISBN 13 : 3030497283
Total Pages : 445 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (34 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics by : Songsak Sriboonchitta

Download or read book Behavioral Predictive Modeling in Economics written by Songsak Sriboonchitta and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2020-08-05 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents both methodological papers on and examples of applying behavioral predictive models to specific economic problems, with a focus on how to take into account people's behavior when making economic predictions. This is an important issue, since traditional economic models assumed that people make wise economic decisions based on a detailed rational analysis of all the relevant aspects. However, in reality – as Nobel Prize-winning research has shown – people have a limited ability to process information and, as a result, their decisions are not always optimal. Discussing the need for prediction-oriented statistical techniques, since many statistical methods currently used in economics focus more on model fitting and do not always lead to good predictions, the book is a valuable resource for researchers and students interested in the latest results and challenges and for practitioners wanting to learn how to use state-of-the-art techniques.

Neuroeconomics

Author : Eric J. Johnson
Publisher : Elsevier Inc. Chapters
ISBN 13 : 0128073101
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (28 download)

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Book Synopsis Neuroeconomics by : Eric J. Johnson

Download or read book Neuroeconomics written by Eric J. Johnson and published by Elsevier Inc. Chapters. This book was released on 2013-08-13 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This chapter reviews models of choice on two levels: The first concerns the descriptions of choice and their evolution from normative models of how choices should be make to more behaviorally realistic models, more consistent with data showing that choice depends heavily on context. We present brief overviews of risky and riskless choice models and data and for choice over time. We then turn to computational process models, a more recent class of models that make prediction for multiple properties of the decision process beyond simply what is chosen, including predicting the distribution of errors and decision times.These models are typically applied to simpler choices, but have found great use in contemporary neuroscience.

Decision Economics

Author : Edgardo Bucciarelli
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9783319996998
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (969 download)

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Book Synopsis Decision Economics by : Edgardo Bucciarelli

Download or read book Decision Economics written by Edgardo Bucciarelli and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The special session on Decision Economics (DECON) is a scientific forum held annually, which is focused on sharing ideas, projects, research results, models, and experiences associated with the complexity of behavioural decision processes and socio-economic phenomena. In 2018, DECON was held at Campus Tecnológico de la Fábrica de Armas, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain, as part of the 15th International Conference on Distributed Computing and Artificial Intelligence. For the third consecutive year, this book have drawn inspiration from Herbert A. Simon's interdisciplinary legacy and, in particular, is devoted to designs, models, and techniques for boundedly rational decisions, involving several fields of study and expertise. It is worth noting that the recognition of relevant decision-making takes place in a range of critical subject areas and research fields, including economics, finance, information systems, small and international business management, operations, and production. Therefore, decision-making issues are of fundamental importance in all branches of economics addressed with different methodological approaches. As a matter of fact, the study of decision-making has become the focus of intense research efforts, both theoretical and applied, forming a veritable bridge between theory and practice as well as science and business organisations, whose pillars are based on insightful cutting-edge experimental, behavioural, and computational approaches on the one hand, and celebrating the value of science as well as the close relationship between economics and complexity on the other. In this respect, the international scientific community acknowledges Herbert A. Simon's research endeavours to understand the processes involved in economic decision-making and their implications for the advancement of economic professions. Within the field of decision-making, indeed, Simon has become a mainstay of bounded rationality and satisficing. His rejection of the standard (unrealistic) decision-making models adopted by neoclassical economists inspired social scientists worldwide with the purpose to develop research programmes aimed at studying decision-making empirically, experimentally, and computationally. The main achievements concern decision-making for individuals, firms, markets, governments, institutions, and, last but not least, science and research. This book of selected papers tackles these issues that Simon broached in a professional career spanning more than sixty years. The Editors of this book dedicated it to Herb.

Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods

Author : Tshilidzi Marwala
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1447150104
Total Pages : 271 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (471 download)

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Book Synopsis Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods by : Tshilidzi Marwala

Download or read book Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods written by Tshilidzi Marwala and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-02 with total page 271 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods examines the application of artificial intelligence methods to model economic data. Traditionally, economic modeling has been modeled in the linear domain where the principles of superposition are valid. The application of artificial intelligence for economic modeling allows for a flexible multi-order non-linear modeling. In addition, game theory has largely been applied in economic modeling. However, the inherent limitation of game theory when dealing with many player games encourages the use of multi-agent systems for modeling economic phenomena. The artificial intelligence techniques used to model economic data include: multi-layer perceptron neural networks radial basis functions support vector machines rough sets genetic algorithm particle swarm optimization simulated annealing multi-agent system incremental learning fuzzy networks Signal processing techniques are explored to analyze economic data, and these techniques are the time domain methods, time-frequency domain methods and fractals dimension approaches. Interesting economic problems such as causality versus correlation, simulating the stock market, modeling and controling inflation, option pricing, modeling economic growth as well as portfolio optimization are examined. The relationship between economic dependency and interstate conflict is explored, and knowledge on how economics is useful to foster peace – and vice versa – is investigated. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods deals with the issue of causality in the non-linear domain and applies the automatic relevance determination, the evidence framework, Bayesian approach and Granger causality to understand causality and correlation. Economic Modeling Using Artificial Intelligence Methods makes an important contribution to the area of econometrics, and is a valuable source of reference for graduate students, researchers and financial practitioners.