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Modeling Uncertainty As Ambiguity
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Book Synopsis Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty by : Mark Machina
Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty written by Mark Machina and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-11-14 with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. - Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance - Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings - Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Book Synopsis Prospect Theory by : Peter P. Wakker
Download or read book Prospect Theory written by Peter P. Wakker and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2010-07-22 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prospect Theory: For Risk and Ambiguity, provides a comprehensive and accessible textbook treatment of the way decisions are made both when we have the statistical probabilities associated with uncertain future events (risk) and when we lack them (ambiguity). The book presents models, primarily prospect theory, that are both tractable and psychologically realistic. A method of presentation is chosen that makes the empirical meaning of each theoretical model completely transparent. Prospect theory has many applications in a wide variety of disciplines. The material in the book has been carefully organized to allow readers to select pathways through the book relevant to their own interests. With numerous exercises and worked examples, the book is ideally suited to the needs of students taking courses in decision theory in economics, mathematics, finance, psychology, management science, health, computer science, Bayesian statistics, and engineering.
Download or read book Robustness written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
Book Synopsis Modeling Uncertainty with Fuzzy Logic by : Asli Celikyilmaz
Download or read book Modeling Uncertainty with Fuzzy Logic written by Asli Celikyilmaz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2009-04-08 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world we live in is pervaded with uncertainty and imprecision. Is it likely to rain this afternoon? Should I take an umbrella with me? Will I be able to find parking near the campus? Should I go by bus? Such simple questions are a c- mon occurrence in our daily lives. Less simple examples: What is the probability that the price of oil will rise sharply in the near future? Should I buy Chevron stock? What are the chances that a bailout of GM, Ford and Chrysler will not s- ceed? What will be the consequences? Note that the examples in question involve both uncertainty and imprecision. In the real world, this is the norm rather than exception. There is a deep-seated tradition in science of employing probability theory, and only probability theory, to deal with uncertainty and imprecision. The mon- oly of probability theory came to an end when fuzzy logic made its debut. H- ever, this is by no means a widely accepted view. The belief persists, especially within the probability community, that probability theory is all that is needed to deal with uncertainty. To quote a prominent Bayesian, Professor Dennis Lindley, “The only satisfactory description of uncertainty is probability.
Book Synopsis Ignorance and Uncertainty by : Olivier Compte
Download or read book Ignorance and Uncertainty written by Olivier Compte and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proposes novel methods to incorporate ignorance and uncertainty into economic modeling without complex mathematics.
Book Synopsis The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 2 Volume Set by : Gideon Keren
Download or read book The Wiley Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making, 2 Volume Set written by Gideon Keren and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2016-02-16 with total page 1056 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive, up-to-date examination of the most important theory, concepts, methodological approaches, and applications in the burgeoning field of judgment and decision making (JDM) Emphasizes the growth of JDM applications with chapters devoted to medical decision making, decision making and the law, consumer behavior, and more Addresses controversial topics from multiple perspectives – such as choice from description versus choice from experience – and contrasts between empirical methodologies employed in behavioral economics and psychology Brings together a multi-disciplinary group of contributors from across the social sciences, including psychology, economics, marketing, finance, public policy, sociology, and philosophy 2 Volumes
Book Synopsis Elicitation of Preferences by : Baruch Fischhoff
Download or read book Elicitation of Preferences written by Baruch Fischhoff and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2000-02-29 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economists and psychologists have, on the whole, exhibited sharply different perspectives on the elicitation of preferences. Economists, who have made preference the central primitive in their thinking about human behavior, have for the most part rejected elicitation and have instead sought to infer preferences from observations of choice behavior. Psychologists, who have tended to think of preference as a context-determined subjective construct, have embraced elicitation as their dominant approach to measurement. This volume, based on a symposium organized by Daniel McFadden at the University of California at Berkeley, provides a provocative and constructive engagement between economists and psychologists on the elicitation of preferences.
Book Synopsis Entrepreneurial Action by : Andrew C. Corbett
Download or read book Entrepreneurial Action written by Andrew C. Corbett and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-07-17 with total page 327 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 14 addresses the central issue of entrepreneurial action: while many factors are important to the phenomenon of entrepreneurship, entrepreneurship does not happen until someone takes action!
Download or read book Rational Decisions written by Ken Binmore and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-12-29 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds. The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies. Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.
Book Synopsis The Neuropsychology of Emotion by : Joan C. Borod
Download or read book The Neuropsychology of Emotion written by Joan C. Borod and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2000-05-18 with total page 532 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This comprehensive review of the neuropsychology of emotion and the underlying neural mechanisms, is divided into four sections: background and general techniques, theoretical perspectives, emotional disorders, and clinical implications.
Author :Lars Peter Hansen Publisher :World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated ISBN 13 :9789814578110 Total Pages :454 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (781 download)
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Within Economic Models by : Lars Peter Hansen
Download or read book Uncertainty Within Economic Models written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by World Scientific Publishing Company Incorporated. This book was released on 2014 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Studying this work in real time taught me a lot, but seeing it laid out in conceptual, rather than chronological, order provides even clearer insights into the evolution of this provocative line of research. Hansen and Sargent are two of the best economists of our time, they are also among the most dedicated teachers in our profession. They have once again moved the research frontier, and with this book provide a roadmap for the rest of us to follow. This is a must-have for anyone interested in modeling uncertainty, ambiguity and robustness."Stanley E ZinWilliam R Berkley Professor of Economics and BusinessLeonard N Stern School of BusinessNew York UniversityWritten by Lars Peter Hansen (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2013) and Thomas Sargent (Nobel Laureate in Economics, 2011), Uncertainty within Economic Models includes articles adapting and applying robust control theory to problems in economics and finance. This book extends rational expectations models by including agents who doubt their models and adopt precautionary decisions designed to protect themselves from adverse consequences of model misspecification. This behavior has consequences for what are ordinarily interpreted as market prices of risk, but big parts of which should actually be interpreted as market prices of model uncertainty. The chapters discuss ways of calibrating agents' fears of model misspecification in quantitative contexts.
Download or read book Uncertainty Theory written by Baoding Liu and published by Springer. This book was released on 2007-09-14 with total page 263 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book provides a self-contained, comprehensive and up-to-date presentation of uncertainty theory. The purpose is to equip the readers with an axiomatic approach to deal with uncertainty. For this new edition the entire text has been totally rewritten. The chapters on chance theory and uncertainty theory are completely new. Mathematicians, researchers, engineers, designers, and students will find this work a stimulating and useful reference.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Economic Theory by : Itzhak Gilboa
Download or read book Uncertainty in Economic Theory written by Itzhak Gilboa and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2004-08-02 with total page 577 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume brings together important papers, coupled with new introductions, in the massively influential area of uncertainty in economic theory. Seminal papers are available together for the first time in book format, with new introductions and under the steely editorship of Itzhak Gilboa - this book is a useful reference tool for economists all over the globe.
Book Synopsis Principles of Modeling Uncertainties in Spatial Data and Spatial Analyses by : Wenzhong Shi
Download or read book Principles of Modeling Uncertainties in Spatial Data and Spatial Analyses written by Wenzhong Shi and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-09-30 with total page 456 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: When compared to classical sciences such as math, with roots in prehistory, and physics, with roots in antiquity, geographical information science (GISci) is the new kid on the block. Its theoretical foundations are therefore still developing and data quality and uncertainty modeling for spatial data and spatial analysis is an important branch of t
Book Synopsis The Ethics of Ambiguity by : Simone de Beauvoir
Download or read book The Ethics of Ambiguity written by Simone de Beauvoir and published by Open Road Media. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 98 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From the groundbreaking author of The Second Sex comes a radical argument for ethical responsibility and freedom. In this classic introduction to existentialist thought, French philosopher Simone de Beauvoir’s The Ethics of Ambiguity simultaneously pays homage to and grapples with her French contemporaries, philosophers Jean-Paul Sartre and Maurice Merleau-Ponty, by arguing that the freedoms in existentialism carry with them certain ethical responsibilities. De Beauvoir outlines a series of “ways of being” (the adventurer, the passionate person, the lover, the artist, and the intellectual), each of which overcomes the former’s deficiencies, and therefore can live up to the responsibilities of freedom. Ultimately, de Beauvoir argues that in order to achieve true freedom, one must battle against the choices and activities of those who suppress it. The Ethics of Ambiguity is the book that launched Simone de Beauvoir’s feminist and existential philosophy. It remains a concise yet thorough examination of existence and what it means to be human.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Environmental Economics by :
Download or read book Handbook of Environmental Economics written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-10-17 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook in Environmental Economics, Volume 4, the latest in this ongoing series, highlights new advances in the field, with this new volume presenting timely chapters on Modeling Ecosystems and Economic Systems, Framing Sustainability Policy Questions: Who Leads – Ecology or Economics?, Valuing Natural Capital Within an Integrated Economic Ecological, Developing Economies, Urbanization, Climate Change and Health, Viewing Environmental Policy Instruments for Domestic and International Perspective, Quasi experimental Estimation of Environmental Policies, Environment Macro, The Rules for Formal and Informal Institutions in Managing Environmental Resources, and How Should Uncertainty Be Integrated into the Methods for Policy Evaluation? - Answers key policy questions facing environmental agencies in developed and developing economies - Integrates insights from economics and ecology as part of several key chapters - Presents the latest on efforts to review and evaluate the new literatures on field and quasi experiments in environmental economics - Provides the first substantive review of environmental macro economics
Book Synopsis Managing Ambiguity and Change by : Louis R. Pondy
Download or read book Managing Ambiguity and Change written by Louis R. Pondy and published by . This book was released on 1988-11-28 with total page 232 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Academics from a number of disciplines, and several practicing executives, discuss how managers can make effective strategic decisions amidst the uncertainties and ambiguity of major transitions, be they technological, financial, regulatory, or economic. Contributors draw lessons from the experiences of actual companies, and they offer maps and models for guiding effective action. Empirical studies reveal some proven practices for innovation in the face of adversity, and a study in contrasts shows how one company successfully reframed policy in response to a drastic environmental change, and how another succeeded by holding to a constant strategic plan in a changing environment.
