Modeling The World Economic Outlook At The Imf

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Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF

Author : Mr.James M. Boughton
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451846703
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF by : Mr.James M. Boughton

Download or read book Modeling the World Economic Outlook At the IMF written by Mr.James M. Boughton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1997-04-01 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise at the IMF evolved during the 1980s, partly in response to demands by policymakers in national finance ministries for objective and internationally comparable projections and policy scenarios. The exercise had begun as a staff initiative, encouraged by the Managing Director (Johannes Witteveen). Gradually, the Executive Board, the Interim Committee, the Group of Seven, and others came to view the discussion of the WEO documents as an important element in their efforts to keep abreast of world economic developments and prospects. Direct and indirect feedback from those discussions informed the staff as to how the exercise should be improved. Driven by this policy relevance, the WEO evolved from a decentralized project that was only haphazardly model-based into a more rigorous and coordinated exercise.

World Economic Outlook, October 2013

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484348834
Total Pages : 657 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.

World Economic Outlook, October 2019

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513516175
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2019 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2019 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-15 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is forecast at 3.0 percent for 2019, its lowest level since 2008–09 and a 0.3 percentage point downgrade from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook.

World Economic Outlook, April 2016

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498398588
Total Pages : 230 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2016 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2016 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-04-12 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Major macroeconomic realignments are affecting prospects differentially across the world’s countries and regions. The April 2016 WEO examines the causes and implications of these realignments—including the slowdown and rebalancing in China, a further decline in commodity prices, a related slowdown in investment and trade, and declining capital flows to emerging market and developing economies—which are generating substantial uncertainty and affecting the outlook for the global economy. Additionally, analytical chapters examine the slowdown in capital flows to emerging market economies since their 2010 peak—its main characteristics, how it compares with past slowdowns, the factors that are driving it, and whether exchange rate flexibility has changed the dynamics of the capital inflow cycle—and assess whether product and labor market reforms can improve the economic outlook in advanced economies, looking at the recent evolution and scope for further reform, the channels through which reforms affect economic activity under strong versus weak economic conditions, reforms’ short- to medium-term macroeconomic effects, and sequencing of reforms and coordination with other policies to maximize their potential quantitative economic benefits. A special feature analyzes in depth the energy transition in an era of low fossil fuel prices.

World Economic Outlook, April 2015

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498378005
Total Pages : 884 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2015 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2015 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-04-14 with total page 884 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth remains moderate and uneven, and a number of complex forces are shaping the outlook. These include medium- and long-term trends, global shocks, and many country- or region-specific factors. The April 2015 WEO examines the causes and implications of recent trends, including lower oil prices, which are providing a boost to growth globally and in many oil-importing countries but are weighing on activity in oil-exporting countries, and substantial changes in exchange rates for major currencies, reflecting variations in country growth rates and in exchange rate policies and the lower price of oil. Additionally, analytical chapters explore the growth rate of potential output across advanced and emerging market economies, assessing its recent track and likely future course; and the performance of private fixed investment in advanced economies, which has featured prominently in the public policy debate in recent years, focusing on the role of overall economic weakness in accounting for this performance.

Cogs and Monsters

Author : Diane Coyle
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691231036
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (912 download)

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Book Synopsis Cogs and Monsters by : Diane Coyle

Download or read book Cogs and Monsters written by Diane Coyle and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2021-10-12 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How economics needs to change to keep pace with the twenty-first century and the digital economy Digital technology, big data, big tech, machine learning, and AI are revolutionizing both the tools of economics and the phenomena it seeks to measure, understand, and shape. In Cogs and Monsters, Diane Coyle explores the enormous problems—but also opportunities—facing economics today and examines what it must do to help policymakers solve the world’s crises, from pandemic recovery and inequality to slow growth and the climate emergency. Mainstream economics, Coyle says, still assumes people are “cogs”—self-interested, calculating, independent agents interacting in defined contexts. But the digital economy is much more characterized by “monsters”—untethered, snowballing, and socially influenced unknowns. What is worse, by treating people as cogs, economics is creating its own monsters, leaving itself without the tools to understand the new problems it faces. In response, Coyle asks whether economic individualism is still valid in the digital economy, whether we need to measure growth and progress in new ways, and whether economics can ever be objective, since it influences what it analyzes. Just as important, the discipline needs to correct its striking lack of diversity and inclusion if it is to be able to offer new solutions to new problems. Filled with original insights, Cogs and Monsters offers a road map for how economics can adapt to the rewiring of society, including by digital technologies, and realize its potential to play a hugely positive role in the twenty-first century.

World Economic Outlook, October 2020

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND
ISBN 13 : 9781513556055
Total Pages : 203 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (56 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2020 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.

Macroeconomics for Professionals

Author : Leslie Lipschitz
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1108568467
Total Pages : 312 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (85 download)

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Book Synopsis Macroeconomics for Professionals by : Leslie Lipschitz

Download or read book Macroeconomics for Professionals written by Leslie Lipschitz and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-01-23 with total page 312 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding macroeconomic developments and policies in the twenty-first century is daunting: policy-makers face the combined challenges of supporting economic activity and employment, keeping inflation low and risks of financial crises at bay, and navigating the ever-tighter linkages of globalization. Many professionals face demands to evaluate the implications of developments and policies for their business, financial, or public policy decisions. Macroeconomics for Professionals provides a concise, rigorous, yet intuitive framework for assessing a country's macroeconomic outlook and policies. Drawing on years of experience at the International Monetary Fund, Leslie Lipschitz and Susan Schadler have created an operating manual for professional applied economists and all those required to evaluate economic analysis.

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021

Author : International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513568817
Total Pages : 74 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 by : International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department

Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2021 written by International Monetary Fund. Secretary's Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-10-04 with total page 74 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A recovery is underway, but the economic fallout from the global pandemic could be with us for years to come. With the crisis exacerbating prepandemic vulnerabilities, country prospects are diverging. Nearly half of emerging market and developing economies and some middle-income countries are now at risk of falling further behind, undoing much of the progress made toward achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts

Author : Sophia Chen
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475567685
Total Pages : 33 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts by : Sophia Chen

Download or read book Financial Information and Macroeconomic Forecasts written by Sophia Chen and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-18 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the forecasting power of financial variables for macroeconomic variables for 62 countries between 1980 and 2013. We find that financial variables such as credit growth, stock prices and house prices have considerable predictive power for macroeconomic variables at one to four quarters horizons. A forecasting model with financial variables outperforms the World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts in up to 85 percent of our sample countries at the four quarters horizon. We also find that cross-country panel models produce more accurate out-of-sample forecasts than individual country models.

How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook

Author : Mr.Michael J. Artis
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451851251
Total Pages : 94 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook by : Mr.Michael J. Artis

Download or read book How Accurate Are the Imf's Short-Term Forecasts? Another Examination of the World Economic Outlook written by Mr.Michael J. Artis and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1996-08-01 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the short-term forecasts for industrial and developing countries produced by the International Monetary Fund, and published twice a year in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). For the industrial country group, the WEO forecasts for output growth and inflation are satisfactory and pass most conventional tests in forecasting economic developments, although forecast accuracy has not improved over time, and predicting the turning points of the business cycle remains a weakness. For the developing countries, the task of forecasting movements in economic activity is even more difficult and the conventional measures of forecast accuracy are less satisfactory than for the industrial countries.

World Economic Outlook, April 2008

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1589067193
Total Pages : 302 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2008 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2008 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2008-04-09 with total page 302 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global expansion is losing speed in the face of a major financial crisis. The slowdown has been greatest in the advanced economies, particularly in the United States, where the housing market correction continues to exacerbate financial stress. The emerging and developing economies have so far been less affected by fi nancial market developments and have continued to grow at a rapid pace, led by China and India, although activity is beginning to slow in some countries. At the same time, headline infl ation has increased around the world, boosted by the continuing buoyancy of food and energy prices. Policymakers around the world are facing a diverse and fast-moving set of challenges, and although each country's circumstances differ, in an increasingly multipolar world it will be essential to meet these challenges broadly, taking full account of cross-border interactions. The World Economic Outlook (WEO) presents the IMF staff's analysis and projections of economic developments at the global level, in major country groups (classified by region, stage of development, etc.), and in many individual countries. It focuses on major economic policy issues as well as on the analysis of economic developments and prospects. It is usually prepared twice a year, as documentation for meetings of the International Monetary and Financial Committee, and forms the main instrument of the IMF's global surveillance activities.

Global Economic Prospects, June 2021

Author : World Bank
Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464816662
Total Pages : 339 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 by : World Bank

Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, June 2021 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-08-03 with total page 339 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.

International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2019 Financial Statements

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1513511726
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (135 download)

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Book Synopsis International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2019 Financial Statements by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book International Monetary Fund Annual Report 2019 Financial Statements written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-10-04 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The audited consolidated financial statements of the International Monetary Fund as of April 30, 2019 and 2018

World Economic Outlook, October 2007

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 158906688X
Total Pages : 277 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (89 download)

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Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2007 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2007 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-04-11 with total page 277 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy grew strongly in the first half of 2007, although turbulence in financial markets has clouded prospects. While the 2007 forecast has been little affected, the baseline projection for 2008 global growth has been reduced by almost 1⁄2 percentage point relative to the July 2007 World Economic Outlook Update. This would still leave global growth at a solid 43⁄4 percent, supported by generally sound fundamentals and strong momentum in emerging market economies. Risks to the outlook, however, are firmly on the downside, centered around the concern that financial market strains could deepen and trigger a more pronounced global slowdown. Thus, the immediate focus of policymakers is to restore more normal financial market conditions and safeguard the expansion. Additional risks to the outlook include potential inflation pressures, volatile oil markets, and the impact on emerging markets of strong foreign exchange inflows. At the same time, longer-term issues such as population aging, increasing resistance to globalization, and global warming are a source of concern.

International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis

Author : Laurent Ferrara
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319790757
Total Pages : 298 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara

Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 298 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.

Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections

Author : Klaus-Peter Hellwig
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148438959X
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections by : Klaus-Peter Hellwig

Download or read book Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections written by Klaus-Peter Hellwig and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-07 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I regress real GDP growth rates on the IMF’s growth forecasts and find that IMF forecasts behave similarly to those generated by overfitted models, placing too much weight on observable predictors and underestimating the forces of mean reversion. I identify several such variables that explain forecasts well but are not predictors of actual growth. I show that, at long horizons, IMF forecasts are little better than a forecasting rule that uses no information other than the historical global sample average growth rate (i.e., a constant). Given the large noise component in forecasts, particularly at longer horizons, the paper calls into question the usefulness of judgment-based medium and long-run forecasts for policy analysis, including for debt sustainability assessments, and points to statistical methods to improve forecast accuracy by taking into account the risk of overfitting.