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Modeling The Time Varying Risk Premium Using A Mixed Garch And Jump Diffusion Model
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Book Synopsis Modeling the Time-Varying Risk Premium Using a Mixed GARCH and Jump Diffusion Model by : Bala Arshanapalli
Download or read book Modeling the Time-Varying Risk Premium Using a Mixed GARCH and Jump Diffusion Model written by Bala Arshanapalli and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we employ a combination of the jump diffusion and GARCH model in the mean equation to test the risk-return relationship in the U.S. stock returns. The results suggest a statistically significant relationship between the risk and the return if the risk measure includes components of smoothly changing variance and jump events. These results are not consistently observed when the traditional GARCH in the mean modeling is used.
Book Synopsis Jump Risk, Time-Varying Risk Premia, and Technical Trading Profits by : Chenyang Feng
Download or read book Jump Risk, Time-Varying Risk Premia, and Technical Trading Profits written by Chenyang Feng and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we investigate the recently documented trading profits based on technical trading rules in an asset pricing framework that incorporates jump risk and time-varying risk premia. Following Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992), we apply popular technical trading rules to the daily Samp;P 500 index over a long period of time. Trading profits are examined using bootstrap simulation to address distributional anomalies. We estimate a variety of asset pricing models, including the random walk, autoregressive models, a combined jump diffusion model, and a combined model of jump-diffusion and autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity. Technical trading profits are shown to be statistically significant for the pure diffusion models and autoregressive models, yet become less significant when jump risk is incorporated into the model and virtually disappear for an asset pricing model that incorporates both jump risk and time-varying risk premia. The empirical evidence suggests that technical trading profits could be fair compensation for the risk of price discontinuity as well as time-varying risk premia of asset returns. Alternatively, technical trading profits provide a test of specification of asset pricing models; in this vein the evidence provides support for the incorporation of jump risk into asset pricing models.
Book Synopsis Encyclopedia of Finance by : Cheng-Few Lee
Download or read book Encyclopedia of Finance written by Cheng-Few Lee and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2006-07-27 with total page 861 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is a major new reference work covering all aspects of finance. Coverage includes finance (financial management, security analysis, portfolio management, financial markets and instruments, insurance, real estate, options and futures, international finance) and statistical applications in finance (applications in portfolio analysis, option pricing models and financial research). The project is designed to attract both an academic and professional market. It also has an international approach to ensure its maximum appeal. The Editors' wish is that the readers will find the encyclopedia to be an invaluable resource.
Book Synopsis The Time-Varying Garch-in-Mean Model by : Gustavo Fruet Dias
Download or read book The Time-Varying Garch-in-Mean Model written by Gustavo Fruet Dias and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I introduce the time-varying GARCH-in-mean (TVGARCH-in-mean) model and propose an estimation strategy for the stochastic time-varying risk premium parameter. A Monte Carlo study shows that the proposed algorithm has good finite sample properties. Using monthly excess returns on the CRSP index, I document that the risk premium parameter is indeed time-varying and shows high degree of persistence.
Book Synopsis Jump-Diffusion Long-Run Risks Models, Variance Risk Premium, and Volatility Dynamics by : Jianjian Jin
Download or read book Jump-Diffusion Long-Run Risks Models, Variance Risk Premium, and Volatility Dynamics written by Jianjian Jin and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 66 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper calibrates a class of jump-diffusion long-run risks models and quantifies how well they can account for both equity and variance risk premiums while generating realistic volatility dynamics. I find that jumps in the level and the volatility of long-run consumption growth rates perform equally well in explaining the variance risk premium. Moreover, compared to jump-in-growth models, jump-in-volatility models generate more realistic volatility dynamics and stronger predictability of returns by the variance risk premium. Finally, both jump-in-volatility and jump-in-growth models suggest that a non-trivial portion of the equity risk premium is due to compensation for jump risks.
Book Synopsis Modeling and Estimating Time-Varying Systematic Risk by : Wenzhong Fan
Download or read book Modeling and Estimating Time-Varying Systematic Risk written by Wenzhong Fan and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Most empirical studies of the asset pricing model assume that only first two moments matter in asset valuation and systematic risk remains constant over time. There is a general consensus that the static CAPM is unable to capture the time-varying risk premium and explain cross-sectional returns. Our study incorporates the effect of higher moments on valuation with a conditional three-moment asset pricing model. We also proposed an econometric methodology to estimate time-varying and asymmetric risk factors under a conditional framework. The model is applied to daily stock return data and our results show that time variation and asymmetry in higher moments are relevant to asset pricing.
Book Synopsis Jump-Diffusion Processes and the Bond Markets by : Sanjiv Ranjan Das
Download or read book Jump-Diffusion Processes and the Bond Markets written by Sanjiv Ranjan Das and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops models of the term structure when the short rate follows a jump-diffusion process. An empirical implementation demonstrates that jump-diffusions better explain interest rate behavior than pure diffusion models. The fit is shown to be improved by an augmented jump-diffusion time varying volatility model proposed here. The effect of skewness and kurtosis on the term structure of interest rates is analyzed. The economic implications of jump activity are explored with the analysis of changes in Federal Reserve target rates and their relationship to the term structure.
Book Synopsis Optimal Portfolio Problem for Stochastic-Volatility, Jump-Diffusion Models with Jump-Bankruptcy Condition by : Floyd B. Hanson
Download or read book Optimal Portfolio Problem for Stochastic-Volatility, Jump-Diffusion Models with Jump-Bankruptcy Condition written by Floyd B. Hanson and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper treats the risk-averse optimal portfolio problem with consumption in continuous time with a stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion (SVJD) model of the underlying risky asset and the volatility. The new developments are the use of the SVJD model with double-uniform jump-amplitude distributions and time-varying market parameters for the optimal portfolio problem. Although unlimited borrowing and short-selling play an important role in pure diffusion models, it is shown that borrowing and short selling are constrained for jump-diffusions. Finite range jump-amplitude models can allow constraints to be very large in contrast to infinite range models which severely restrict the optimal instantaneous stock-fraction to [0,1]. The reasonable constraints in the optimal stock-fraction due to jumps in the wealth argument for stochastic dynamic programming jump integrals remove a singularity in the stock-fraction due to vanishing volatility. Main modifications for the usual constant relative risk aversion (CRRA) power utility model are for handling the partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) resulting from the additional variance independent variable, instead of the ordinary integro-differential equation (OIDE) found for the pure jump-diffusion model of the wealth process. In addition to natural constraints due to jumps when enforcing the positivity of wealth condition, other constraints are considered for all practical purposes under finite market conditions. Also, a computationally practical solution of Heston's (1993) square-root-diffusion model for the underlying asset variance is derived. This shows that the non-negativity of the variance is preserved through the proper singular limit of a simple perfect-square form. An exact, non -singular solution is found for a special combination of the Heston stochastic volatility parameters.
Book Synopsis Time-Varying Conditional Skewness and the Market Risk Premium by : Akhtar R. Siddique
Download or read book Time-Varying Conditional Skewness and the Market Risk Premium written by Akhtar R. Siddique and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Single factor asset pricing models face two major hurdles: the problematic time-series properties of the ex ante market risk premium and the inability of the risk measure to account for a substantial degree of the cross-sectional variation of expected excess returns. We provide an explanation for the first failure using the following intuition: if investors know that the asset returns have conditional skewness given the information known today, the expected excess returns should include rewards for accepting skewness. We formalize this intuition with an asset pricing model which incorporates conditional skewness. We decompose the expected excess returns into components due to conditional variance and skewness. Our results show that conditional skewness is important and, when combined with the economy-wide reward for skewness, helps explain the time-variation of the ex ante market risk premiums. Conditional skewness has greater success in explaining the ex ante risk premium for the world portfolio than for the U.S. portfolio.
Book Synopsis Jump-diffusion Processes and the Bond Markets by : Sanjiv R. Das
Download or read book Jump-diffusion Processes and the Bond Markets written by Sanjiv R. Das and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops models of the term structure when the short rate follows a jump-diffusion process. An empirical implementation demonstrates that jump-diffusions better explain interest rate behavior than pure diffusion models. The fit is shown to be improved by an augmented jump-diffusion time varying volatility model proposed here. The effect of skewness and kurtosis on the jump activity are explored with an analysis of changes in Federal Reserve target rates and their relationship to the term structure.
Book Synopsis Time-varying Mixture GARCH Models and Asymmetric Volatility by : Markus Haas
Download or read book Time-varying Mixture GARCH Models and Asymmetric Volatility written by Markus Haas and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics by : Robert A. Meyers
Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.
Book Synopsis Volatility and Correlation by : Riccardo Rebonato
Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School
Book Synopsis Financial Modeling Under Non-Gaussian Distributions by : Eric Jondeau
Download or read book Financial Modeling Under Non-Gaussian Distributions written by Eric Jondeau and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-04-05 with total page 541 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines non-Gaussian distributions. It addresses the causes and consequences of non-normality and time dependency in both asset returns and option prices. The book is written for non-mathematicians who want to model financial market prices so the emphasis throughout is on practice. There are abundant empirical illustrations of the models and techniques described, many of which could be equally applied to other financial time series.
Book Synopsis Modelling Financial Time Series by : Stephen J. Taylor
Download or read book Modelling Financial Time Series written by Stephen J. Taylor and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2008 with total page 297 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book contains several innovative models for the prices of financial assets. First published in 1986, it is a classic text in the area of financial econometrics. It presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models that are often used and cited in academic research and are applied by quantitative analysts in many banks. Another often-cited contribution of the first edition is the documentation of statistical characteristics of financial returns, which are referred to as stylized facts. This second edition takes into account the remarkable progress made by empirical researchers during the past two decades from 1986 to 2006. In the new Preface, the author summarizes this progress in two key areas: firstly, measuring, modelling and forecasting volatility; and secondly, detecting and exploiting price trends. Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1: Introduction (1,134 KB). Contents: Features of Financial Returns; Modelling Price Volatility; Forecasting Standard Deviations; The Accuracy of Autocorrelation Estimates; Testing the Random Walk Hypothesis; Forecasting Trends in Prices; Evidence Against the Efficiency of Futures Markets; Valuing Options; Appendix: A Computer Program for Modelling Financial Time Series. Readership: Academic researchers in finance & economics; quantitative analysts.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications by : Luc Bauwens
Download or read book Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications written by Luc Bauwens and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-22 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Book Synopsis Measuring Systemic Risk-Adjusted Liquidity (SRL) by : Andreas Jobst
Download or read book Measuring Systemic Risk-Adjusted Liquidity (SRL) written by Andreas Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-08-01 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Little progress has been made so far in addressing—in a comprehensive way—the externalities caused by impact of the interconnectedness within institutions and markets on funding and market liquidity risk within financial systems. The Systemic Risk-adjusted Liquidity (SRL) model combines option pricing with market information and balance sheet data to generate a probabilistic measure of the frequency and severity of multiple entities experiencing a joint liquidity event. It links a firm’s maturity mismatch between assets and liabilities impacting the stability of its funding with those characteristics of other firms, subject to individual changes in risk profiles and common changes in market conditions. This approach can then be used (i) to quantify an individual institution’s time-varying contribution to system-wide liquidity shortfalls and (ii) to price liquidity risk within a macroprudential framework that, if used to motivate a capital charge or insurance premia, provides incentives for liquidity managers to internalize the systemic risk of their decisions. The model can also accommodate a stress testing approach for institution-specific and/or general funding shocks that generate estimates of systemic liquidity risk (and associated charges) under adverse scenarios.
