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Modeling Inflation In Georgia
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Book Synopsis Modeling Inflation in Georgia by : Wojciech Maliszewski
Download or read book Modeling Inflation in Georgia written by Wojciech Maliszewski and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-11-01 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper explains the behavior of inflation in Georgia in the post-stabilization period. A long-run equation linking prices to money and the exchange rate, as well as a short-run, dynamic equation for inflation are estimated. The inflation equation is stable, points to a dominant role of the exchange rate in the behavior of inflation and shows a low persistence of inflation in Georgia. The equation explains well the behavior of inflation after the Russian crises, when inflation increased sharply but was quickly brought under control, as the National Bank of Georgia kept its monetary policy tight and the exchange rate stable.
Book Synopsis Modeling Inflation in Georgia by : Wojciech S. Maliszewski
Download or read book Modeling Inflation in Georgia written by Wojciech S. Maliszewski and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper explains the behavior of inflation in Georgia in the post-stabilization period. A long-run equation linking prices to money and the exchange rate, as well as a short-run, dynamic equation for inflation are estimated. The inflation equation is stable, points to a dominant role of the exchange rate in the behavior of inflation and shows a low persistence of inflation in Georgia. The equation explains well the behavior of inflation after the Russian crises, when inflation increased sharply but was quickly brought under control, as the National Bank of Georgia kept its monetary policy tight and the exchange rate stable.
Book Synopsis Inflation Targeting in Georgia by : Giorgi Bakradze
Download or read book Inflation Targeting in Georgia written by Giorgi Bakradze and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-08 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper evaluates whether Georgia is ready to adopt inflation targeting (IT), a monetary policy framework that several emerging markets have adopted recently. After reviewing selected prerequisites for successfully implementing IT, the paper focuses on whether one specific precondition is in place-an empirically stable monetary transmission mechanism. Building on a baseline VAR model, it presents several extensions to explore the various channels using causality tests, impulse responses, and variance decompositions. The paper finds that once the central bank overcomes some institutional and operational weaknesses and establishes a more reliable transmission mechanism, it could adopt IT over the medium term.
Book Synopsis Modalities of Moving to Inflation Targeting in Armenia and Georgia by : Andreas Billmeier
Download or read book Modalities of Moving to Inflation Targeting in Armenia and Georgia written by Andreas Billmeier and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2007-06 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper reviews the current monetary and exchange rate policy frameworks in Armenia and Georgia, and the challenges associated with the choice of a credible nominal anchor in the context of large nominal and real shocks. The paper makes a case for a gradual transition to full-fledged inflation targeting (FFIT) in both countries in the medium term. The implications of this option are examined from various angles. In particular, the monetary transmission mechanisms and compliance with major institutional prerequisites for successful FFIT adoption are analyzed. Based on this analysis, the paper identifies a series of short- and medium-term recommendations, drawing on the experience of emerging market countries that successfully moved to FFIT.
Book Synopsis Georgia by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Georgia written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2004-02-03 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This report reviews Georgia's performance under the two IMF-supported programs, covering the period 1996–2003. It also discusses the key challenges that Georgia faces in realizing the goals of its recently finalized Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Program (EDPRP). Georgia has broadly maintained a liberal trade and payments system. The authorities have made substantial progress in implementing financial sector reforms.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484323556 Total Pages :82 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Georgia by : International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Download or read book Georgia written by International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-04-03 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The new government is committed to prudent macroeconomic policies and to enhancing Georgia’s business-friendly environment. Large external liabilities plus its high current account deficit remain the main sources of vulnerability, and reducing these in an orderly manner is a key macroeconomic challenge. Greater exchange rate flexibility should help align its monetary policy and exchange rate decisions more closely with its inflation. Maintaining central bank independence and increasing monetary policy transparency are welcomed by the Executive Directors. The impressive structural agenda aims at improving the business environment and at boosting competitiveness.
Book Synopsis The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation by : Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Download or read book The Distributional Implications of the Impact of Fuel Price Increases on Inflation written by Mr. Kangni R Kpodar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.
Book Synopsis Inflation in Tajikistan by : Svetlana Vtyurina
Download or read book Inflation in Tajikistan written by Svetlana Vtyurina and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-01-01 with total page 21 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to explain short- and long-term dynamics of-and forecast-inflation in Tajikistan using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Autoregressive Moving Average Model (ARMA). By analyzing different transmission channels through the VECM, we were able to evaluate their relative dominance, magnitude, and speed of transition to the equilibrium price level, with the view of identifying those policy tools that will enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy. We found that excess supply of broad money is inflationary in both the short and long term. The dynamic analysis also demonstrates that the exchange rate and international inflation have a strong impact on local prices. Available monetary instruments, such as the refinancing rate, have proven to be ineffective. Therefore, the Tajik monetary authority could greatly benefit from enhancing its monetary instruments toolkit, including by developing the interest rate channel, to improve its monetary policy execution and to achieve stable inflationary conditions.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :51 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Georgia by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Georgia written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-05-10 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This CD engagement covered two distinct areas to help the National Bank of Georgia (NBG) deliver on its price stability mandate, it: 1) provided a forward-looking analysis of the NBG’s balance sheet to assess its policy solvency and to help institutionalize such a process, and 2) outlined a strategy to develop hedging instruments in interest rate and foreign exchange (FX) markets to support monetary policy transmission. With virtually no interest-bearing liabilities, the NBG balance sheet is robust. Under the adverse shock, it improves on account of FX revaluation gains. Higher inflation also helps, since the need for a higher policy rate generates larger domestic interest income. Institutionalizing this analysis allows for early warning of the need to reduce dividend payments (or for re-capitalization) thereby supporting operational independence. Georgia has made good progress on many of the enabling conditions for developing hedging markets, but several structural factors provide challenges. A supportive regulatory environment is in place, market infrastructure is robust, and there is a range of instruments available to serve as the underlying instrument for derivatives. However, there is a lack of heterogeneity of financial risk profile and appetite amongst participants. Recommendations include setting up a standardized FX forward trading platform, pushing for upgrades of banks’ treasury management systems, supporting the targeted education and training efforts of the Georgian Financial Markets Treasuries Association, revising the current FX forward index to be more informative by publishing outright transacted rates; and publishing Overnight Indexed Swap benchmarks.
Book Synopsis The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations by : Tobias F. Rötheli
Download or read book The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations written by Tobias F. Rötheli and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The notion that expectations play a key role in economic decision making is a very old one. Over the past 100 years, major advances in the application of this insight in the formulation of economic models have been made in various subfields of economics. The concept of extrapolation, the idea that past observations of a series are the basis for making projections into the future, was present from the start of the modeling of dynamic economic processes"--
Book Synopsis Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter by : Andrew C. Harvey
Download or read book Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter written by Andrew C. Harvey and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990 with total page 574 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A synthesis of concepts and materials, that ordinarily appear separately in time series and econometrics literature, presents a comprehensive review of theoretical and applied concepts in modeling economic and social time series.
Book Synopsis Applied Linear Statistical Models by : Michael H. Kutner
Download or read book Applied Linear Statistical Models written by Michael H. Kutner and published by McGraw-Hill/Irwin. This book was released on 2005 with total page 1396 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Linear regression with one predictor variable; Inferences in regression and correlation analysis; Diagnosticis and remedial measures; Simultaneous inferences and other topics in regression analysis; Matrix approach to simple linear regression analysis; Multiple linear regression; Nonlinear regression; Design and analysis of single-factor studies; Multi-factor studies; Specialized study designs.
Book Synopsis Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries by : Mr.Marco Airaudo
Download or read book Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries written by Mr.Marco Airaudo and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2016-03-08 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.
Book Synopsis The Periphery of the Euro by : Philippe De Lombaerde
Download or read book The Periphery of the Euro written by Philippe De Lombaerde and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-11-30 with total page 391 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book analyzes the monetary and exchange rate policies in Eastern European countries not covered by the current EU enlargement process. Specifically the book examines the major CIS countries: Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia and the Ukraine. (The new Eastern European EU members are also frequently referenced for comparison purposes.) Current and prospective monetary policy options are considered and the applicability of the EU monetary integration experience for the CIS countries and the prospects of a monetary re-unification around the Russian Federation are assessed. This is the first book to formally deal with many of these questions.
Book Synopsis Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies by : Jongrim Ha
Download or read book Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies written by Jongrim Ha and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-02-24 with total page 513 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
Book Synopsis Inflation and String Theory by : Daniel Baumann
Download or read book Inflation and String Theory written by Daniel Baumann and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2015-04-23 with total page 395 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The past two decades have seen transformative advances in cosmology and string theory. Observations of the cosmic microwave background have revealed strong evidence for inflationary expansion in the very early universe, while new insights about compactifications of string theory have led to a deeper understanding of inflation in a framework that unifies quantum mechanics and general relativity. Written by two of the leading researchers in the field, this complete and accessible volume provides a modern treatment of inflationary cosmology and its connections to string theory and elementary particle theory. After an up-to-date experimental summary, the authors present the foundations of effective field theory, string theory, and string compactifications, setting the stage for a detailed examination of models of inflation in string theory. Three appendices contain background material in geometry and cosmological perturbation theory, making this a self-contained resource for graduate students and researchers in string theory, cosmology, and related fields.
Book Synopsis Fighting Corruption in Public Services by : World Bank
Download or read book Fighting Corruption in Public Services written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2012-02-01 with total page 127 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book chronicles the anti-corruption reforms in public services in Georgia since the Rose Revolution in late 2003. Through a series of case studies, the book draws out the how of these reforms and distills the key success factors.
