Modeling Banking Sovereign And Macro Risk In A Cca Global Var

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Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR

Author : Mr.Dale F. Gray
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484387201
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR by : Mr.Dale F. Gray

Download or read book Modeling Banking, Sovereign, and Macro Risk in a CCA Global VAR written by Mr.Dale F. Gray and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-23 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The purpose of this paper is to develop a model framework for the analysis of interactions between banking sector risk, sovereign risk, corporate sector risk, real economic activity, and credit growth for 15 European countries and the United States. It is an integrated macroeconomic systemic risk model framework that draws on the advantages of forward-looking contingent claims analysis (CCA) risk indicators for the banking systems in each country, forward-looking CCA risk indicators for sovereigns, and a GVAR model to combine the banking, the sovereign, and the macro sphere. The CCA indicators capture the nonlinearity of changes in bank assets, equity capital, credit spreads, and default probabilities. They capture the expected losses, spreads and default probability for sovereigns. Key to the framework is that sovereign credit spreads, banking system credit risk, corporate sector credit risk, economic growth, and credit variables are combined in a fully endogenous setting. Upon estimation and calibration of the global model, we simulate various negative and positive shock scenarios, particularly to bank and sovereign risk. The goal is to use this framework to analyze the impact and spillover of shocks and to help identify policies that would mitigate banking system, sovereign credit risk and recession risk—policies including bank capital increases, purchase of sovereign debt, and guarantees.

Euro Area Policies

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484369599
Total Pages : 94 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Euro Area Policies by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Download or read book Euro Area Policies written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-07-19 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This technical note consists of five chapters focusing on various aspects of systemic risk analysis across the euro area financial system. The chapters cover bank profitability, balance sheet- and market-based interconnected analysis, contingent claims analysis, and a brief discussion of data gaps in the nonbank, non-insurance (NBNI) financial sector. The ongoing economic recovery will support euro area bank profitability in general, but it is unlikely to resolve the structural challenges faced by the least profitable banks despite some recent improvements. This is important because persistently weak bank profitability is a systemic financial stability concern. Empirical analysis of 109 major euro area banks over 2007–2016 reveals that real GDP growth and the NPL ratio are the most reliable determinants of profitability, after accounting for other factors. Although higher growth would raise profits, a large swath of banks with the weakest profitability would most likely continue to struggle even with a robust recovery. Therefore, banks should take advantage of the current upswing by resolutely addressing their NPL stocks—such a strategy holds the most promise for weak banks’ profitability prospects.

Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis

Author : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475557531
Total Pages : 93 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis by : Mr.Andreas A. Jobst

Download or read book Systemic Contingent Claims Analysis written by Mr.Andreas A. Jobst and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-02-27 with total page 93 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The recent global financial crisis has forced a re-examination of risk transmission in the financial sector and how it affects financial stability. Current macroprudential policy and surveillance (MPS) efforts are aimed establishing a regulatory framework that helps mitigate the risk from systemic linkages with a view towards enhancing the resilience of the financial sector. This paper presents a forward-looking framework ("Systemic CCA") to measure systemic solvency risk based on market-implied expected losses of financial institutions with practical applications for the financial sector risk management and the system-wide capital assessment in top-down stress testing. The suggested approach uses advanced contingent claims analysis (CCA) to generate aggregate estimates of the joint default risk of multiple institutions as a conditional tail expectation using multivariate extreme value theory (EVT). In addition, the framework also helps quantify the individual contributions to systemic risk and contingent liabilities of the financial sector during times of stress.

From Fragmentation to Financial Integration in Europe

Author : Mr.Charles Enoch
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 148438766X
Total Pages : 524 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis From Fragmentation to Financial Integration in Europe by : Mr.Charles Enoch

Download or read book From Fragmentation to Financial Integration in Europe written by Mr.Charles Enoch and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-11 with total page 524 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: From Fragmentation to Financial Integration in Europe is a comprehensive study of the European Union financial system. It provides an overview of the issues central to securing a safer financial system for the European Union and looks at the responses to the global financial crisis, both at the macro level—the pendulum of financial integration and fragmentation—and at the micro level—the institutional reforms that are taking place to address the crisis. The emerging financial sector management infrastructure, including the proposed Single Supervisory Mechanism and other elements of a banking union for the euro area, are also discussed in detail.

Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models

Author : Mr.Dale F. Gray
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463921284
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (639 download)

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Book Synopsis Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models by : Mr.Dale F. Gray

Download or read book Incorporating Financial Sector Risk Into Monetary Policy Models written by Mr.Dale F. Gray and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2011-09-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper builds a model of financial sector vulnerability and integrates it into a macroeconomic framework, typically used for monetary policy analysis. The main question to be answered with the integrated model is whether or not the central bank should include explicitly the financial stability indicator in its monetary policy (interest rate) reaction function. It is found in general, that including distance-to-default (dtd) of the banking system in the central bank reaction function reduces both inflation and output volatility. Moreover, the results are robust to different model calibrations: whenever exchange-rate pass-through is higher; financial vulnerability has a larger impact on the exchange rate, as well as on GDP (or the reverse, there is more effect of GDP on bank's equity - i.e., what we call endogeneity), it is more efficient to include dtd in the reaction function.

Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey

Author : David Aikman
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey by : David Aikman

Download or read book Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey written by David Aikman and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-08-25 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper, we survey the rapidly developing literature on macroprudential stress-testing models. The scope of the survey includes models of contagion between banks, models of contagion within the wider financial system including non-bank financial institutions such as investment funds, and models that emphasise the two-way interaction between the financial sector and the real economy. Our aim is two-fold: first, to provide a reference guide of the state-of-the-art for those developing such models; second, to distil insights from this endeavour for policy-makers using these models. In our view, the modelling frontier faces three main challenges: (a) our understanding of the potential for amplification in sectors of the non-bank financial system during periods of stress, (b) multi-sectoral models of the non-bank financial system to analyse the behaviour of the overall demand and supply of liquidity under stress and (c) stress testing models that incorporate comprehensive two-way interactions between the financial system and the real economy. Emerging lessons for policy-makers are that, for a given-sized shock hitting the system, its eventual impact will depend on (a) the size of financial institutions' capital and liquidity buffers, (b) the liquidation strategies financial institutions adopt when they need to raise cash, and (c) the topology of the financial network.

From Banking to Sovereign Stress - Implications For Public Debt

Author : International Monetary Fund
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1498342434
Total Pages : 88 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (983 download)

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Book Synopsis From Banking to Sovereign Stress - Implications For Public Debt by : International Monetary Fund

Download or read book From Banking to Sovereign Stress - Implications For Public Debt written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-12-22 with total page 88 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.

Towards Macroprudential Stress Testing

Author : Mr.Ivo Krznar
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484307100
Total Pages : 49 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Towards Macroprudential Stress Testing by : Mr.Ivo Krznar

Download or read book Towards Macroprudential Stress Testing written by Mr.Ivo Krznar and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-06-30 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macro-feedback effects have been identified as a key missing element for more effective macro-prudential stress testing. To fill this gap, this paper develops a framework that facilitates the analysis of both the direct effects of macroeconomic shocks on the solvency of individual banks and feedback effects that allow for the amplification and propagation of shocks that can result from bank deleveraging and credit crunches. The framework ensures consistency in the key relationships between macroeconomic and financial variables, and banks’ balance sheets. This is accomplished by embedding a standard stress-testing framework based on individual banks’ data in a semi-structural macroeconomic model. The framework has numerous applications that can strengthen stress testing and macro financial analysis. Moreover, it provides an avenue for many extensions that address the challenges of incorporating other second-round effects important for comprehensive systemic risk analysis, such as interactions between solvency, liquidity and contagion risks. To this end, the paper presents some preliminary simulations of feedback effects arising from the link between the liquidity and solvency risk.

Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1

Author : E. Porras
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137358769
Total Pages : 303 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (373 download)

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Book Synopsis Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1 by : E. Porras

Download or read book Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets, Volume 1 written by E. Porras and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-06-29 with total page 303 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Understanding the formation of bubbles and the contagion mechanisms afflicting financial markets is a must as extreme volatility events leave no market untouched. Debt, equity, real estate, commodities... Shanghai, NY, or London: The severe fluctuations, explained to a large extent by contagion and the fear of new bubbles imploding, justify the newly awaken interest in the contagion and bubble dynamics as yet again the world brazes for a new global economic upheaval. Bubbles and Contagion in Financial Markets explores concepts, intuition, theory, and models. Fundamental valuation, share price development in the presence of asymmetric information, the speculative behavior of noise traders and chartists, herding and the feedback and learning mechanisms that surge within the markets are key aspects of these dynamics. Bubbles and contagion are a vast world and fascinating phenomena that escape a narrow exploration of financial markets. Hence this work looks beyond into macroeconomics, monetary policy, risk aggregation, psychology, incentive structures and many more subjects which are in part co-responsible for these events. Responding to the ever more pressing need to disentangle the dynamics by which financial local events are transmitted across the globe, this volume presents an exhaustive and integrative outlook to the subject of bubbles and contagion in financial markets. The key objective of this volume is to give the reader a comprehensive understanding of all aspects that can potentially create the conditions for the formation and bursting of bubbles, and the aftermath of such events: the contagion of macro-economic processes. Achieving a better understanding of the formation of bubbles and the impact of contagion will no doubt determine the stability of future economies – let these two volumes be the starting point for a rational approach to a seemingly irrational phenomena.

Modeling with Macro-Financial Linkages

Author : Ms.Inci Ötker
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451872704
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)

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Book Synopsis Modeling with Macro-Financial Linkages by : Ms.Inci Ötker

Download or read book Modeling with Macro-Financial Linkages written by Ms.Inci Ötker and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-06-01 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a stylized, small, open economy macro model that incorporates an explicit and non-trivial role for financial intermediation. It illustrates how such a model could be used for policy analysis in an emerging market economy where policymakers are concerned about risks associated with rapid credit growth, financial dollarization, and foreign borrowing, while lacking traditional tools to effect monetary policy transmission, and hence could resort to more direct instruments, such as foreign exchange market intervention and regulatory and administrative measures. Calibrating the model to a stylized emerging European economy, the paper simulates real and financial sector implications of various external and policy-related shocks that could be used as input for monetary policy making.

Macrofinancial Modeling At Central Banks

Author : Mr.Scott Roger
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1463931832
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (639 download)

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Book Synopsis Macrofinancial Modeling At Central Banks by : Mr.Scott Roger

Download or read book Macrofinancial Modeling At Central Banks written by Mr.Scott Roger and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-01-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper surveys dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with financial frictions in use by central banks and discusses priorities for future development of such models for the purpose of monetary and financial stability analysis. It highlights the need to develop macrofinancial models which allow analysis of the macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policy tools and to evaluate elements of the Basel III reforms as a priority. The paper also reviews the main approaches to introducing financial frictions into general equilibrium models.

Luxembourg

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484316835
Total Pages : 114 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis Luxembourg by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Download or read book Luxembourg written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-08-28 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Technical Note reviews the stability of Luxembourg’s financial system. The financial soundness indicators for Luxembourg’s financial system, which plays a key role in the intermediation of financial capital, have remained relatively robust in recent years. Household stress test results suggest that households’ solvency would be significantly affected by a drop in income and housing prices and a rise in unemployment. Bank liquidity displays broad resilience, but would be weakened should wholesale funding dry up or funding stress emerge in foreign currencies. Banks were found to be less vulnerable to direct contagion risk through bilateral exposure; however, most banks have considerable cross-border exposure.

Finland

Author : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1475564929
Total Pages : 85 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (755 download)

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Book Synopsis Finland by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department

Download or read book Finland written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-01-11 with total page 85 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Technical Note discusses the results of stress testing of Finland’s banking system. Despite high capitalization levels, there are important vulnerabilities in the Finnish banking system. Near-term risks are largely tilted to the downside, stemming from both external and domestic sources. A sharper-than-expected global growth slowdown would be a drag on Finland’s export and GDP growth. Although so far high compared with the rest of the euro area banks, Finnish banks’ profitability is facing challenges from the low interest rate environment and the low economic growth. Vulnerabilities include funding risks, contagion risks, and challenges related to long-term profitability.

Recent Developments in Asian Economics

Author : William A. Barnett
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1838673598
Total Pages : 604 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (386 download)

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Book Synopsis Recent Developments in Asian Economics by : William A. Barnett

Download or read book Recent Developments in Asian Economics written by William A. Barnett and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2021-03-01 with total page 604 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recent Developments in Asian Economics is a crucial resource of current, cutting-edge research for any scholar of international finance and economics. Chapters cover a wide range of topics, such as social welfare systems, organizational culture, sustainability, the impact of economic policy uncertainty, and more.

IMF Research Bulletin, December 2013

Author : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484378431
Total Pages : 14 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)

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Book Synopsis IMF Research Bulletin, December 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.

Download or read book IMF Research Bulletin, December 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the December 2013 IMF Research Bulletin, the Research Summaries look at “Reforming Dual Labor Markets in Advanced Economies” (Giovanni Ganelli) and “Rating Through-The-Cycle: What Does the Concept Imply for Rating Stability Accuracy” (John Kiff, Michael Kisser, and Liliana Schumacher). The Q&A discusses Seven Questions on Financial Crises (Stijn Claessens, M. Ayhan Kose, Luc Laeven, and Fabián Valencia). This issue also includes a listing of recent IMF Working Papers and IMF Staff Discussion Notes, as well as Recommended Readings from the IMF Bookstore. The top-viewed articles from recent of issues of “IMF Economic Review” are featured.

Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics

Author : M. Hashem Pesaran
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198736916
Total Pages : 1095 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (987 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics by : M. Hashem Pesaran

Download or read book Time Series and Panel Data Econometrics written by M. Hashem Pesaran and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2015 with total page 1095 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is concerned with recent developments in time series and panel data techniques for the analysis of macroeconomic and financial data. It provides a rigorous, nevertheless user-friendly, account of the time series techniques dealing with univariate and multivariate time series models, as well as panel data models. It is distinct from other time series texts in the sense that it also covers panel data models and attempts at a more coherent integration of time series, multivariate analysis, and panel data models. It builds on the author's extensive research in the areas of time series and panel data analysis and covers a wide variety of topics in one volume. Different parts of the book can be used as teaching material for a variety of courses in econometrics. It can also be used as reference manual. It begins with an overview of basic econometric and statistical techniques, and provides an account of stochastic processes, univariate and multivariate time series, tests for unit roots, cointegration, impulse response analysis, autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models, simultaneous equation models, vector autoregressions, causality, forecasting, multivariate volatility models, panel data models, aggregation and global vector autoregressive models (GVAR). The techniques are illustrated using Microfit 5 (Pesaran and Pesaran, 2009, OUP) with applications to real output, inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, and stock prices.

The Validation of Risk Models

Author : S. Scandizzo
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1137436964
Total Pages : 242 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (374 download)

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Book Synopsis The Validation of Risk Models by : S. Scandizzo

Download or read book The Validation of Risk Models written by S. Scandizzo and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-07-01 with total page 242 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is a one-stop-shop reference for risk management practitioners involved in the validation of risk models. It is a comprehensive manual about the tools, techniques and processes to be followed, focused on all the models that are relevant in the capital requirements and supervisory review of large international banks.