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Model Uncertainty And The Design Of Robust Monetary Policy Rules In A Small Open Economy
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Book Synopsis Model Uncertainty and the Design of Robust Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy by : Daniel O. Beltran
Download or read book Model Uncertainty and the Design of Robust Monetary Policy Rules in a Small Open Economy written by Daniel O. Beltran and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy by : Kai Leitemo
Download or read book Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy written by Kai Leitemo and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies how a central bank's preference for robustness against model misspecification affects the design of monetary policy in a New-Keynesian model of a small open economy. Due to the simple model structure, we are able to solve analytically for the optimal robust policy rule, and we separately analyze the effects of robustness against misspecification concerning the determination of inflation, output and the exchange rate. We show that an increased central bank preference for robustness makes monetary policy respond more aggressively or more cautiously to shocks, depending on the type of shock and the source of misspecification.
Book Synopsis Real-time Model Uncertainty in the United States by : Robert J. Tetlow
Download or read book Real-time Model Uncertainty in the United States written by Robert J. Tetlow and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty in a Small Model of the U.S. Economy by : Alexei Onatski
Download or read book Robust Monetary Policy Under Model Uncertainty in a Small Model of the U.S. Economy written by Alexei Onatski and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper examines monetary policy in Rudebusch and Svensson's (1999) two equation macroeconomic model when the policymaker recognizes that the model is an approximation and is uncertain about the quality of that approximation. It is argued that the minimax approach of robust control provides a general and tractable alternative to the conventional Bayesian decision theoretic approach. Robust control techniques are used to construct robust monetary policies. In most (but not all) cases, these robust policies are more aggressive than the optimal policies absent model uncertainty. The specific robust policies depend strongly on the formation of model uncertainty used, and we make some suggestions about which formulation is most relevant for monetary policy applications.
Book Synopsis Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks by : Davide Debortoli
Download or read book Designing a Simple Loss Function for Central Banks written by Davide Debortoli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-07-21 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Yes, it makes a lot of sense. This paper studies how to design simple loss functions for central banks, as parsimonious approximations to social welfare. We show, both analytically and quantitatively, that simple loss functions should feature a high weight on measures of economic activity, sometimes even larger than the weight on inflation. Two main factors drive our result. First, stabilizing economic activity also stabilizes other welfare relevant variables. Second, the estimated model features mitigated inflation distortions due to a low elasticity of substitution between monopolistic goods and a low interest rate sensitivity of demand. The result holds up in the presence of measurement errors, with large shocks that generate a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and resource utilization, and also when ensuring a low probability of hitting the zero lower bound on interest rates.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness by : Richard Dennis
Download or read book Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy with a Preference for Robustness written by Richard Dennis and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy and Uncertainty in an Empirical Small Open Economy Model by : Alejandro Justiniano
Download or read book Monetary Policy and Uncertainty in an Empirical Small Open Economy Model written by Alejandro Justiniano and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper explores optimal policy design in an estimated model of three small open economies: Australia, Canada and New Zealand. Within a class of generalized Taylor rules, we show that to stabilize a weighted objective of output, consumer price inflation and nominal interest variation optimal policy does not respond to the nominal exchange. This is despite the presence of local currency pricing and due, in large part, to observed exchange rate disconnect in these economies. Optimal policies that account for the uncertainty of model estimates, as captured by the parameters' posterior distrbution, similarly exhibit a lack of exchange rate response. In contrast to Brainard (1967), the presence of parameter uncertainty can lead to more or less aggressive policy responses, depending on the model at hand.
Book Synopsis Learning and Expectational Stability under Robust Monetary Policy by : Sohei Kaihatsu
Download or read book Learning and Expectational Stability under Robust Monetary Policy written by Sohei Kaihatsu and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the last few years, several articles have been devoted to the study of model uncertainty in the New Keynesian model using robust control methods. Most studies have focused on how to design a robust monetary policy to take model uncertainty more seriously. Little attention has, however, been given to expectation formation under such a robust monetary policy. The purpose of this study is to explore the expectational stability under robust monetary policy when private expectations are formed by the adaptive learning technology. We find that the economy is determinate and stable under learning if (i) private agents' expectations are observable to the central bank and appropriately incorporated into its optimal policy rules, and (ii) the central bank's preference for robustness is sufficiently weak. It follows that it is important for the central bank to consider expectational stability when it implements a robust monetary policy.
Book Synopsis Robust Estimation and Monetary Policy with Unobserved Structural Change by :
Download or read book Robust Estimation and Monetary Policy with Unobserved Structural Change written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Download or read book Robustness written by Lars Peter Hansen and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-06-28 with total page 453 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty, Robust Control and Optimal Monetary Policy Design by : Li Qin
Download or read book Uncertainty, Robust Control and Optimal Monetary Policy Design written by Li Qin and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis analyze the conduct of monetary policy in the presence of uncertainty. By adopting the framework proposed by Hansen and Sargent (2003), we analyze the behaviors of monetary authorities and private agents when faced with various sources of uncertainty, as well as their consequences in terms of macroeconomic performances. Our work shows that, in order to guard against the possibly catastrophic results of the worst-case scenario, central bankers have to react in an active manner, by manipulating the interest rate. However, in an open economy, the magnitude of this adjustment decreases with the degree of openness. Also, greater transparency of the central bank's objectives, by reducing preference uncertainty, will attenuate the variations of macroeconomic variables that follow the consideration of possible erroneous specifications. It is thus advisable to reveal informations about the central bankers' preferences, including their own estimates of the degree of model uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Optimal Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy by : Marine Charlotte André
Download or read book Optimal Robust Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy written by Marine Charlotte André and published by . This book was released on 2022 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study an optimal robust monetary policy for a small open economy. The robust control approach assumes that economic agents cannot assign probabilities to a set of plausible models and rather focuses on the worst possible misspecification from a benchmark model. Our findings suggest that, first, conducting a global robust optimal monetary policy is limited as deviations from the benchmark model lead to multiple equilibria. Second, when the central bank considers uncertainty only in the IS Curve or in the UIP, the space of unique solutions is expanded. In fact, the central bank reacts more aggressively to demand and real exchange rate shocks when it is robust to misspecifications in the IS curve only. Finally, our results suggest that the global robust optimal monetary policy is limited due to inflation persistency and the low exchange rate pass-through. The importance of anchoring inflation expectations is highlighted.
Book Synopsis Complexity and monetary policy by : Athanasios Orphanides
Download or read book Complexity and monetary policy written by Athanasios Orphanides and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Modeling Model Uncertainty by : Alexei Onatski
Download or read book Modeling Model Uncertainty written by Alexei Onatski and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recently there has been a great deal of interest in studying monetary policy under model uncertainty. We point out that different assumptions about the uncertainty may result in drastically different robust' policy recommendations. Therefore, we develop new methods to analyze uncertainty about the parameters of a model, the lag specification, the serial correlation of shocks, and the effects of real time data in one coherent structure. We consider both parametric and nonparametric specifications of this structure and use them to estimate the uncertainty in a small model of the US economy. We then use our estimates to compute robust Bayesian and minimax monetary policy rules, which are designed to perform well in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that the aggressiveness recently found in robust policy rules is likely to be caused by overemphasizing uncertainty about economic dynamics at low frequencies
Book Synopsis The Inflation-Targeting Debate by : Ben S. Bernanke
Download or read book The Inflation-Targeting Debate written by Ben S. Bernanke and published by University of Chicago Press. This book was released on 2007-11-01 with total page 469 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the past fifteen years, a significant number of industrialized and middle-income countries have adopted inflation targeting as a framework for monetary policymaking. As the name suggests, in such inflation-targeting regimes, the central bank is responsible for achieving a publicly announced target for the inflation rate. While the objective of controlling inflation enjoys wide support among both academic experts and policymakers, and while the countries that have followed this model have generally experienced good macroeconomic outcomes, many important questions about inflation targeting remain. In Inflation Targeting, a distinguished group of contributors explores the many underexamined dimensions of inflation targeting—its potential, its successes, and its limitations—from both a theoretical and an empirical standpoint, and for both developed and emerging economies. The volume opens with a discussion of the optimal formulation of inflation-targeting policy and continues with a debate about the desirability of such a model for the United States. The concluding chapters discuss the special problems of inflation targeting in emerging markets, including the Czech Republic, Poland, and Hungary.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies by : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
Download or read book Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2020-02-21 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Central banks in emerging and developing economies (EMDEs) have been modernizing their monetary policy frameworks, often moving toward inflation targeting (IT). However, questions regarding the strength of monetary policy transmission from interest rates to inflation and output have often stalled progress. We conduct a novel empirical analysis using Jordà’s (2005) approach for 40 EMDEs to shed a light on monetary transmission in these countries. We find that interest rate hikes reduce output growth and inflation, once we explicitly account for the behavior of the exchange rate. Having a modern monetary policy framework—adopting IT and independent and transparent central banks—matters more for monetary transmission than financial development.
Book Synopsis Monetary Policy Rules for an Open Economy by : Nicoletta Batini
Download or read book Monetary Policy Rules for an Open Economy written by Nicoletta Batini and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most popular simple rule for the interest rate, due to Taylor, is meant to inform monetary policy in closed economies. On the other hand, its main open-economy alternative, Ball's rule based on a monetary conditions index (MCI), may perform poorly in the face of specific types of exchange rate shocks, and thus cannot offer guidance for the day-to-day conduct of monetary policy. In this paper, a comprehensive set of simple monetary policy rules (including the MCI-based and Taylor versions) is specified and evaluated, all suitable for small open economies in general, and for the United Kingdom in particular. The asymptotic properties of a two-sector open-economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model calibrated on UK data are compared under the different rules. It is found that an inflation-forecast-based rule (IFB), i.e., one that reacts to deviations of expected inflation from target, performs well. Adding a separate response to the level of the real exchange rate (contemporaneous and lagged) appears to reduce the difference in adjustment between output gaps in the two sectors of the economy, but the improvement is only marginal. Importantly, an IFB rule, with or without exchange rate adjustment, appears robust to different shocks, in contrast to naive or Ball's MCI-based rules.
