Measuring Corporate Default Risk

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Measuring Corporate Default Risk

Author : Darrell Duffie
Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 019150047X
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (915 download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring Corporate Default Risk by : Darrell Duffie

Download or read book Measuring Corporate Default Risk written by Darrell Duffie and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2011-06-23 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book, based on the author's Clarendon Lectures in Finance, examines the empirical behaviour of corporate default risk. A new and unified statistical methodology for default prediction, based on stochastic intensity modeling, is explained and implemented with data on U.S. public corporations since 1980. Special attention is given to the measurement of correlation of default risk across firms. The underlying work was developed in a series of collaborations over roughly the past decade with Sanjiv Das, Andreas Eckner, Guillaume Horel, Nikunj Kapadia, Leandro Saita, and Ke Wang. Where possible, the content based on methodology has been separated from the substantive empirical findings, in order to provide access to the latter for those less focused on the mathematical foundations. A key finding is that corporate defaults are more clustered in time than would be suggested by their exposure to observable common or correlated risk factors. The methodology allows for hidden sources of default correlation, which are particularly important to include when estimating the likelihood that a portfolio of corporate loans will suffer large default losses. The data also reveal that a substantial amount of power for predicting the default of a corporation can be obtained from the firm's "distance to default," a volatility-adjusted measure of leverage that is the basis of the theoretical models of corporate debt pricing of Black, Scholes, and Merton. The findings are particularly relevant in the aftermath of the financial crisis, which revealed a lack of attention to the proper modelling of correlation of default risk across firms.

Measuring Corporate Default Risk

Author : Darrell Duffie
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199279233
Total Pages : 122 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (992 download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring Corporate Default Risk by : Darrell Duffie

Download or read book Measuring Corporate Default Risk written by Darrell Duffie and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2011-06-23 with total page 122 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: public corporations since 1980.

Measuring Correlated Default Risk

Author : Siamak Javadi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring Correlated Default Risk by : Siamak Javadi

Download or read book Measuring Correlated Default Risk written by Siamak Javadi and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Extracting information from daily CDS spreads, we propose a measure of correlated default risk, which we show is a meaningful predictor of bankruptcy clusters. Focusing on U.S. corporate bonds, we also find that our measure of correlated default risk is more pronounced and commands a higher premium during periods of financial distress and for speculative issues. For instance, we find that after controlling for other known determinants of bond pricing, a 0.5 increase in aggregate correlated default risk is associated with a 13-bps increase in credit spreads, and elevates to a 22-bps premium for speculative issues and to a 17-bps premium during periods of financial distress. Overall, our paper provides compelling evidence as to the efficacy of our measure in capturing correlations in the likelihood of default over time, and has important implications for future work in asset allocation and fixed-income pricing.

Managing Portfolio Credit Risk in Banks: An Indian Perspective

Author : Arindam Bandyopadhyay
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 110714647X
Total Pages : 390 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (71 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing Portfolio Credit Risk in Banks: An Indian Perspective by : Arindam Bandyopadhyay

Download or read book Managing Portfolio Credit Risk in Banks: An Indian Perspective written by Arindam Bandyopadhyay and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2016-05-09 with total page 390 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book explains how a proper credit risk management framework enables banks to identify, assess and manage the risk proactively.

Currency Mismatches and Corporate Default Risk

Author : Andre Santos
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Currency Mismatches and Corporate Default Risk by : Andre Santos

Download or read book Currency Mismatches and Corporate Default Risk written by Andre Santos and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-12 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Currency mismatches in corporate balance sheets have been singled out as an important factor underlying the severity of recent financial crises. We propose several structural models for measuring default risk for firms with currency mismatches in their asset/liability structure. The proposed models can be adapted to different exchange rate regimes, are analytically tractable, and can be estimated using available equity price and balance sheet data. The paper provides a detailed explanation on how to calibrate the models and discusses two applications to financial surveillance: the measurement of systematic risk in the corporate sector and the estimation of prudential leverage ratios consistent with regulatory capital ratios in the banking sector.

Comparing and Combining Public Corporate Default Risk Measures

Author : Naiping Yu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 230 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (72 download)

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Book Synopsis Comparing and Combining Public Corporate Default Risk Measures by : Naiping Yu

Download or read book Comparing and Combining Public Corporate Default Risk Measures written by Naiping Yu and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Measuring Default Risk Premia from Default Swap Rates and EDFs

Author : Antje Berndt
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring Default Risk Premia from Default Swap Rates and EDFs by : Antje Berndt

Download or read book Measuring Default Risk Premia from Default Swap Rates and EDFs written by Antje Berndt and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates recent default risk premia for U.S. corporate debt, based on a close relationship between default probabilities, as estimated by Moody's KMV EDFs, and default swap (CDS) market rates. The default-swap data, obtained through CIBC from 22 banks and specialty dealers, allow us to establish a strong link between actual and risk-neutral default probabilities for the 69 firms in the three sectors that we analyze: broadcasting and entertainment, healthcare, and oil and gas. We find dramatic variation over time in risk premia, from peaks in the third quarter of 2002, dropping by roughly 50% to late 2003.

Credit Risk

Author : Darrell Duffie
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400829178
Total Pages : 415 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Risk by : Darrell Duffie

Download or read book Credit Risk written by Darrell Duffie and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-12 with total page 415 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this book, two of America's leading economists provide the first integrated treatment of the conceptual, practical, and empirical foundations for credit risk pricing and risk measurement. Masterfully applying theory to practice, Darrell Duffie and Kenneth Singleton model credit risk for the purpose of measuring portfolio risk and pricing defaultable bonds, credit derivatives, and other securities exposed to credit risk. The methodological rigor, scope, and sophistication of their state-of-the-art account is unparalleled, and its singularly in-depth treatment of pricing and credit derivatives further illuminates a problem that has drawn much attention in an era when financial institutions the world over are revising their credit management strategies. Duffie and Singleton offer critical assessments of alternative approaches to credit-risk modeling, while highlighting the strengths and weaknesses of current practice. Their approach blends in-depth discussions of the conceptual foundations of modeling with extensive analyses of the empirical properties of such credit-related time series as default probabilities, recoveries, ratings transitions, and yield spreads. Both the "structura" and "reduced-form" approaches to pricing defaultable securities are presented, and their comparative fits to historical data are assessed. The authors also provide a comprehensive treatment of the pricing of credit derivatives, including credit swaps, collateralized debt obligations, credit guarantees, lines of credit, and spread options. Not least, they describe certain enhancements to current pricing and management practices that, they argue, will better position financial institutions for future changes in the financial markets. Credit Risk is an indispensable resource for risk managers, traders or regulators dealing with financial products with a significant credit risk component, as well as for academic researchers and students.

Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis

Author : Anthony Saunders
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470622369
Total Pages : 373 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (76 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis by : Anthony Saunders

Download or read book Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis written by Anthony Saunders and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-04-16 with total page 373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A classic book on credit risk management is updated to reflect the current economic crisis Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis dissects the 2007-2008 credit crisis and provides solutions for professionals looking to better manage risk through modeling and new technology. This book is a complete update to Credit Risk Measurement: New Approaches to Value at Risk and Other Paradigms, reflecting events stemming from the recent credit crisis. Authors Anthony Saunders and Linda Allen address everything from the implications of new regulations to how the new rules will change everyday activity in the finance industry. They also provide techniques for modeling-credit scoring, structural, and reduced form models-while offering sound advice for stress testing credit risk models and when to accept or reject loans. Breaks down the latest credit risk measurement and modeling techniques and simplifies many of the technical and analytical details surrounding them Concentrates on the underlying economics to objectively evaluate new models Includes new chapters on how to prevent another crisis from occurring Understanding credit risk measurement is now more important than ever. Credit Risk Management In and Out of the Financial Crisis will solidify your knowledge of this dynamic discipline.

Credit Risk Measurement

Author : Anthony Saunders
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0471274763
Total Pages : 337 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (712 download)

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Book Synopsis Credit Risk Measurement by : Anthony Saunders

Download or read book Credit Risk Measurement written by Anthony Saunders and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2002-10-06 with total page 337 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The most cutting-edge read on the pricing, modeling, and management of credit risk available The rise of credit risk measurement and the credit derivatives market started in the early 1990s and has grown ever since. For many professionals, understanding credit risk measurement as a discipline is now more important than ever. Credit Risk Measurement, Second Edition has been fully revised to reflect the latest thinking on credit risk measurement and to provide credit risk professionals with a solid understanding of the alternative approaches to credit risk measurement. This readable guide discusses the latest pricing, modeling, and management techniques available for dealing with credit risk. New chapters highlight the latest generation of credit risk measurement models, including a popular class known as intensity-based models. Credit Risk Measurement, Second Edition also analyzes significant changes in banking regulations that are impacting credit risk measurement at financial institutions. With fresh insights and updated information on the world of credit risk measurement, this book is a must-read reference for all credit risk professionals. Anthony Saunders (New York, NY) is the John M. Schiff Professor of Finance and Chair of the Department of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. He holds positions on the Board of Academic Consultants of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors as well as the Council of Research Advisors for the Federal National Mortgage Association. He is the editor of the Journal of Banking and Finance and the Journal of Financial Markets, Instruments and Institutions. Linda Allen (New York, NY) is Professor of Finance at Baruch College and Adjunct Professor of Finance at the Stern School of Business at New York University. She also is author of Capital Markets and Institutions: A Global View (Wiley: 0471130494). Over the years, financial professionals around the world have looked to the Wiley Finance series and its wide array of bestselling books for the knowledge, insights, and techniques that are essential to success in financial markets. As the pace of change in financial markets and instruments quickens, Wiley Finance continues to respond. With critically acclaimed books by leading thinkers on value investing, risk management, asset allocation, and many other critical subjects, the Wiley Finance series provides the financial community with information they want. Written to provide professionals and individuals with the most current thinking from the best minds in the industry, it is no wonder that the Wiley Finance series is the first and last stop for financial professionals looking to increase their financial expertise.

Monitoring Privately-held Firms' Default Risk in Real Time: A Signal-Knowledge Transfer Learning Model

Author : Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)

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Book Synopsis Monitoring Privately-held Firms' Default Risk in Real Time: A Signal-Knowledge Transfer Learning Model by : Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau

Download or read book Monitoring Privately-held Firms' Default Risk in Real Time: A Signal-Knowledge Transfer Learning Model written by Mr. Jorge A Chan-Lau and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-06-07 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We develop a mixed-frequency, tree-based, gradient-boosting model designed to assess the default risk of privately held firms in real time. The model uses data from publicly-traded companies to construct a probability of default (PD) function. This function integrates high-frequency, market-based, aggregate distress signals with low-frequency, firm-level financial ratios, and macroeconomic indicators. When provided with private firms' financial ratios, the model, which we name signal-knowledge transfer learning model (SKTL), transfers insights gained from 35 thousand publicly-traded firms to more than 4 million private-held ones and performs well as an ordinal measure of privately-held firms' default risk.

Measuring and Managing Credit Risk

Author : Arnaud de Servigny
Publisher : McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN 13 : 007178800X
Total Pages : 480 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (717 download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring and Managing Credit Risk by : Arnaud de Servigny

Download or read book Measuring and Managing Credit Risk written by Arnaud de Servigny and published by McGraw Hill Professional. This book was released on 2004-05-05 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's most complete, up-to-date reference for controlling credit risk exposure of all types, in every environment Measuring and Managing Credit Risk takes you far beyond the Basel guidelines to detail a powerful, proven program for understanding and controlling your firm’s credit risk. Providing hands-on answers on practical topics from capital management to correlations, and supporting its theories with up-to-the-minute data and insights, this authoritative book examines every key aspect of credit risk, including: Determinants of credit risk and pricing/spread implications Quantitative models for moving beyond Altman’s Z score to separate “good” borrowers from “bad” Key determinants of loss given default, and potential links between recovery rates and probabilities of default Measures of dependency including linear correlation, and the impact of correlation on portfolio losses A detailed review of five of today’s most popular portfolio models—CreditMetrics, CreditPortfolioView, Portfolio Risk Tracker, CreditRisk+, and Portfolio Manager How credit risk is reflected in the prices and yields of individual securities How derivatives and securitization instruments can be used to transfer and repackage credit risk Today’s credit risk measurement and management tools and techniques provide organizations with dramatically improved strength and flexibility, not only in mitigating risk but also in improving overall financial performance. Measuring and Managing Credit Risk introduces and explores each of these tools, along with the rapidly evolving global credit environment, to provide bankers and other financial decision-makers with the know-how to avoid excessive credit risk where possible—and mitigate it when necessary.

Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Corporate Default Risk

Author : Jonathan William Welburn
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 17 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (119 download)

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Book Synopsis Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Corporate Default Risk by : Jonathan William Welburn

Download or read book Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on Corporate Default Risk written by Jonathan William Welburn and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page 17 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The COVID-19 global pandemic has resulted in a fast-moving health crisis with significant uncertainty. Policy makers have responded by imposing social distancing policies (non-pharmaceutical interventions) which close schools, bars, and restaurants, close non-essential business, restrict movement, and impose quarantines. Under the weight of significant business interruptions, reductions in both supply and demand, and supply chain disruptions the health crisis has given way to deep economic contraction. The confluence of sharp economic losses and historic levels of corporate debt risk producing a financial crisis on top of the health crisis. We build on the work of Vardavas et al. (2020) and Strong and Welburn (2020), who estimate the health and economic impacts of COVID-19 under a set of social distancing scenarios, to estimate the potential for firm exits. We use a structural model of financial distress based on Merton's distance to default to estimate the likelihood of firm defaults conditional on losses in aggregate income. Using the Vardavas et al. (2020) set of scenarios and estimations of reduced income, we estimate average firm default probabilities over a large set of US listed firms. We find that the crisis coincides with exceptional risk of corporate default. Under modest levels of social distancing and economic losses, we estimate high levels of average corporate default risk. As social distancing measures and economic contractions persist, levels of corporate default risk exceed those of the 2008 financial crisis. Under the harshest scenarios of prolonged strict interventions, we estimate exceptional levels of corporate default risk ranging from to double to triple those witness during the 2008 financial crisis. While unmodeled, recent credit market interventions may thwart the worst of the default risk scenarios that we estimate by extending credit access to firms on the brink of insolvency.

Managing And Measuring Of Risk: Emerging Global Standards And Regulations After The Financial Crisis

Author : Oliviero Roggi
Publisher : World Scientific
ISBN 13 : 9814417513
Total Pages : 519 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (144 download)

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Book Synopsis Managing And Measuring Of Risk: Emerging Global Standards And Regulations After The Financial Crisis by : Oliviero Roggi

Download or read book Managing And Measuring Of Risk: Emerging Global Standards And Regulations After The Financial Crisis written by Oliviero Roggi and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2013-02-20 with total page 519 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edited volume presents the most recent achievements in risk measurement and management, as well as regulation of the financial industry, with contributions from prominent scholars and practitioners such as Robert Engle, 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economics, Viral Acharya, Torben Andersen, Zvi Bodie, Menachem Brenner, Aswath Damodaran, Marti Subrahmanyam, William Ziemba and others. The book provides a comprehensive overview of recent emerging standards in risk management from an interdisciplinary perspective. Individual chapters expound on the theme of standards setting in this era of financial crises where new and unseen global risks have emerged. They are organized in a such a way that allows the reader a broad perspective of the new emerging standards in macro, systemic and sovereign risk before zooming into the micro perspective of how risk is conceived and treated within a corporation. A section is dedicated to credit risk and to the increased importance of liquidity both in financial systems and at the firm's level.

Modelling Corporate Default Risks in the UK and Measuring the Risk-spillover Connectedness of the European Banking System

Author : Hongzhu Chi
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 378 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (875 download)

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Book Synopsis Modelling Corporate Default Risks in the UK and Measuring the Risk-spillover Connectedness of the European Banking System by : Hongzhu Chi

Download or read book Modelling Corporate Default Risks in the UK and Measuring the Risk-spillover Connectedness of the European Banking System written by Hongzhu Chi and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

IMF Working Papers

Author : Andre Santos
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (842 download)

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Book Synopsis IMF Working Papers by : Andre Santos

Download or read book IMF Working Papers written by Andre Santos and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions

Author : Jiri Podpiera
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1455200573
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (552 download)

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Book Synopsis The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions by : Jiri Podpiera

Download or read book The Fundamental Determinants of Credit Default Risk for European Large Complex Financial Institutions written by Jiri Podpiera and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-06-01 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper attempts to identify the fundamental variables that drive the credit default swaps during the initial phase of distress in selected European Large Complex Financial Institutions (LCFIs). It uses yearly data over 2004 - 08 for 29 European LCFIs. The results from a dynamic panel data estimator show that LCFIs’ business models, earnings potential, and economic uncertainty (represented by market expectations about the future risks of a particular LCFI and market views on prospects for economic growth) are among the most significant determinants of credit risk. The findings of the paper are broadly consistent with those of the literature on bank failure, where the determinants of the latter include the entire CAMELS structure - that is, Capital Adequacy, Asset Quality, Management Quality, Earnings Potential, Liquidity, and Sensitivity to Market Risk. By establishing a link between the financial and market fundamentals of LCFIs and their CDS spreads, the paper offers a potential tool for fundamentals-based vulnerability and early warning system for LCFIs.