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Market Predictability And Non Informational Trading
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Book Synopsis Market Predictability and Non-Informational Trading by : Terrence Hendershott
Download or read book Market Predictability and Non-Informational Trading written by Terrence Hendershott and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper studies the ability of non-informational order imbalances (buy minus sell volume) to predict daily stock returns at the market level. Using a model with three types of participants (an informed trader, liquidity traders, and a finite number of arbitrageurs), we derive predictions relating returns to lagged returns and lagged order imbalances. Empirical tests using New York Stock Exchange non-informational basket/portfolio trading data provide results consistent with adverse selection at the market-level, but no evidence of limited risk-bearing capacity. Finally, we establish that these market-wide non-informational order imbalances also affect individual stock return comovement by examining additions to the Samp;P500 Index.
Book Synopsis Studies in Informational Price Formation, Prediction Markets, and Trading by : Peter Antony Bebbington
Download or read book Studies in Informational Price Formation, Prediction Markets, and Trading written by Peter Antony Bebbington and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Stock Market Prediction and Efficiency Analysis using Recurrent Neural Network by : Joish Bosco
Download or read book Stock Market Prediction and Efficiency Analysis using Recurrent Neural Network written by Joish Bosco and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2018-09-18 with total page 82 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Project Report from the year 2018 in the subject Computer Science - Technical Computer Science, , course: Computer Science, language: English, abstract: Modeling and Forecasting of the financial market have been an attractive topic to scholars and researchers from various academic fields. The financial market is an abstract concept where financial commodities such as stocks, bonds, and precious metals transactions happen between buyers and sellers. In the present scenario of the financial market world, especially in the stock market, forecasting the trend or the price of stocks using machine learning techniques and artificial neural networks are the most attractive issue to be investigated. As Giles explained, financial forecasting is an instance of signal processing problem which is difficult because of high noise, small sample size, non-stationary, and non-linearity. The noisy characteristics mean the incomplete information gap between past stock trading price and volume with a future price. The stock market is sensitive with the political and macroeconomic environment. However, these two kinds of information are too complex and unstable to gather. The above information that cannot be included in features are considered as noise. The sample size of financial data is determined by real-world transaction records. On one hand, a larger sample size refers a longer period of transaction records; on the other hand, large sample size increases the uncertainty of financial environment during the 2 sample period. In this project, we use stock data instead of daily data in order to reduce the probability of uncertain noise, and relatively increase the sample size within a certain period of time. By non-stationarity, one means that the distribution of stock data is various during time changing. Non-linearity implies that feature correlation of different individual stocks is various. Efficient Market Hypothesis was developed by Burton G. Malkiel in 1991.
Book Synopsis Aggregation of Information and Beliefs on Prediction Markets with Non-Bayesian Traders by : Matthieu Segol
Download or read book Aggregation of Information and Beliefs on Prediction Markets with Non-Bayesian Traders written by Matthieu Segol and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Emerging Markets by : Greg N. Gregoriou
Download or read book Emerging Markets written by Greg N. Gregoriou and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2009-06-26 with total page 870 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Although emerging market economies consist of 50% of the global population, they are relatively unknown. Filling this knowledge gap, Emerging Markets: Performance, Analysis and Innovation compiles the latest research by noteworthy academics and money managers from around the world. With a focus on both traditional emerging markets and new areas, su
Book Synopsis Prediction Markets by : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2011-06-16 with total page 289 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How does one effectively aggregate disparate pieces of information that are spread among many different individuals? In other words, how does one best access the ‘wisdom of the crowd’? Prediction markets, which are essentially speculative markets created for the purpose of aggregating information and making predictions, offer the answer to this question. The effective use of these markets has the potential not only to help forecast future events on a national and international level, but also to assist companies, for example, in providing improved estimates of the potential market size for a new product idea or the launch date of new products and services. The markets have already been used to forecast uncertain outcomes ranging from influenza to the spread of infectious diseases, to the demand for hospital services, to the box office success of movies, climate change, vote shares and election outcomes, to the probability of meeting project deadlines. The insights gained also have many potentially valuable applications for public policy more generally. These markets offer substantial promise as a tool of information aggregation as well as forecasting, whether alone or as a supplement to other mechanisms like opinion surveys, group deliberations, panels of experts and focus groups. Moreover, they can be applied at a macroeconomic and microeconomic level to yield information that is valuable for government and commercial policy-makers and which can be used for a number of social purposes. This volume of original readings, contributed by many of the leading experts in the field, marks a significant addition to the base of knowledge about this fascinating subject area. The book should be of interest to anyone looking at monetary economics, economic forecasting and microeconomics.
Book Synopsis Predictability in Order Flow by : Nicholas Hauschel Hirschey
Download or read book Predictability in Order Flow written by Nicholas Hauschel Hirschey and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: High-frequency traders (HFTs) accounted for roughly forty percent of trading volume on the NASDAQ Stock Market in 2009, but there is little evidence on the type of information these investors trade on. This study tests the hypothesis that HFTs anticipate and trade ahead of other investors' order flow. I find that HFTs' aggressive purchases predict future aggressive buying by non-HFTs, and their aggressive sales predict future aggressive selling by non-HFTs. The positive correlation between trading by HFTs and future trading by other investors is robust to the exclusion of trading around news releases, indicating the effect is not driven by HFTs reacting to news announcements faster than other investors. The effects are stronger in the morning and on high volume days. There are also persistent differences among HFTs in the tendency of their trades to predict future order flow. These findings have implications for the speed at which prices adjust to new information, incentives to acquire information, and the price impact of traditional asset managers' trades.
Book Synopsis Trading without Indicators by : Jose Mosca
Download or read book Trading without Indicators written by Jose Mosca and published by . This book was released on with total page 163 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Learning the trading business from the ground up can be daunting so Trading without Indicators is definitely a good starting point for you. I encourage you to read it as many times as it takes for it to become clear to you as to what you do and do not need to learn to be successful in this business from the start and why you don’t need to use indicators to make trading decisions. There are no money back guarantees in the financial markets and you must know the right information from the start to have a chance of becoming consistently profitable and financially successful, indicators give you the wrong information and can cause a trader to make grave mistakes causing them to lose all their hard earned money. Most brand new traders spend many many hours looking for that magical combination of indicators that will reveal the “Holy grail” of winning trading strategies when they should instead be spending their time on learning what makes the market actually work which is supply and demand. This short book tells you how to invest and trade right from the beginning of your career without the use of any indicators and tells you why you don’t need them and how to read a price chart at a glance to see where the smart moey is working from so you can work there also. The professional advice I give you in this book will empower you to have confidence and zero fear of going in the live markets and accurately initiating a low risk high reward position with which you can have a high probability outcome from being a live market participant and do it while not using any indicators on your trading charts. Becoming a successful self-directed investor and trader is not nearly as difficult as one would think as long as they have the proper education and proper knowledge base right from day one, it takes a while but you can do it and you can do without using indicators!
Book Synopsis Predicting Forex and Stock Market with Fractal Pattern by : Young Ho Seo
Download or read book Predicting Forex and Stock Market with Fractal Pattern written by Young Ho Seo and published by www.algotrading-investment.com. This book was released on 2020-04-09 with total page 330 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: About this book This book provides you the powerful and brand new knowledge on predicting financial market that we have discovered in several years of our own research and development work. This book will help you to turn your intuition into the scientific prediction method. In the course of recognizing the price patterns in the chart of Forex and Stock market, you should be realized that it was your intuition working at the background for you. The geometric prediction devised in this book will show you the scientific way to predict the financial market using your intuition. Many of us made a mistake of viewing the financial market with deterministic cycle. Even though we knew that market would not show us such a simple prediction pattern, we never stop using the concept of deterministic cycle to predict the financial market, for example, using Fourier transform, and other similar techniques. Why is that so? The reason is simple. It is because no one presented an effective way of predicting stochastic cycle. Stochastic cycle is the true face of the financial market because many variables in the market are suppressing the predictable cycle with fixed time interval. So how we predict the stochastic cycle present in the financial market? The key to answer is the Fractal Pattern and Fractal Wave. The geometric prediction on Fractal Wave solves the puzzles of the stochastic cycle modelling problem together. In another words, your intuition, more precisely your capability to recognize geometric shape, is more powerful than any other technical indicators available in the market. Hence, the geometric prediction, which comes from your intuition, would maximize your ability to trade in the financial market. In this book, Geometric prediction is described as the combined ability to recognize the geometric regularity and statistical regularity from the chart. We provide the examples of geometric regularity and statistical regularity. In addition, we will show you how these regularities are related to your intuition. The chart patterns covered in this book include support, resistance, Fibonacci Price pattern, Harmonic Pattern, Falling Wedge pattern, Rising Wedge pattern, and Gann Angles with probability. We use these chart patterns to detect geometric regularity. Then, we use the turning point probability as the mean of detecting statistical regularity. In our trading, we combine both to improve the trading performance.
Book Synopsis A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing (Ninth Edition) by : Burton G. Malkiel
Download or read book A Random Walk Down Wall Street: The Time-Tested Strategy for Successful Investing (Ninth Edition) written by Burton G. Malkiel and published by W. W. Norton & Company. This book was released on 2007-12-17 with total page 454 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Updated with a new chapter that draws on behavioral finance, the field that studies the psychology of investment decisions, the bestselling guide to investing evaluates the full range of financial opportunities.
Book Synopsis An Analysis of the Impacts of Non-Synchronous Trading on Predictability by : Silvio John Camilleri
Download or read book An Analysis of the Impacts of Non-Synchronous Trading on Predictability written by Silvio John Camilleri and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The serial correlation effects which non-synchronous trading can induce in financial data have been documented by various researchers. In this paper we investigate non-synchronous trading effects in terms of the predictability that may be induced in the values of stock indices. This analysis is applied to emerging-market data, on the grounds that such markets might be less liquid and thus prone to a higher degree of non-synchronous trading. We use both a daily data set and a higher frequency one, since the latter is a prerequisite for capturing intra-day variations in trading activity. When considering one-minute interval data, we obtain clear evidence of predictability between indices with different degrees of non-synchronous trading. We then propose a simple test to infer whether such predictability is mainly attributable to non-synchronous trading or an actual delayed adjustment on part of traders. The results obtained from an intra-day analysis suggest that the former cause seems a better explanation for the observed predictability. Future research in this area is needed to shed light on the degree of data predictability which may be exclusively attributed to non-synchronous trading, and how empirical results may be influenced by the chosen data frequency.
Book Synopsis Prediction Markets by : Stefan Luckner
Download or read book Prediction Markets written by Stefan Luckner and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-11-04 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Accurate predictions are essential in many areas such as corporate decision making, weather forecasting and technology forecasting. Prediction markets help to aggregate information and gain a better understanding of the future by leveraging the wisdom of the crowds. Trading prices in prediction markets thus reflect the traders’ aggregated expectations on the outcome of uncertain future events and can be used to predict the likelihood of these events. This book demonstrates that markets are accurate predictors. Results from several empirical studies reported in this work show the importance of designing such markets properly in order to derive valuable predictions. Therefore, the findings are valuable for designing future prediction markets.
Book Synopsis Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets by : Stefan Palan
Download or read book Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Asset Markets written by Stefan Palan and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-02-04 with total page 171 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book describes a laboratory experiment designed to test the causes and properties of bubbles in financial markets and explores the question whether it is possible to design markets which avoid such bubbles and crashes. In the experiment, subjects were given the opportunity to trade in a stock market modeled after the seminal work of Smith et al. (1988). To account for the increasing importance of online betting sites, subjects were also allowed to trade in a digital option market. The outcomes shed new light on how subjects form and update their expectations, placing special emphasis on the bounded rationality of investors. Various analytical bubble measures found in the literature are collected, calculated, classified and presented for the first time. The very interesting new bubble measures "Dispersion Ratio", "Overpriced Transactions" and "Underpriced Transactions" are developed, making the book an important step towards the research goal of preventing bubbles and crashes in financial markets.
Book Synopsis Neural Networks and the Financial Markets by : Jimmy Shadbolt
Download or read book Neural Networks and the Financial Markets written by Jimmy Shadbolt and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 266 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume looks at financial prediction from a broad range of perspectives. It covers: - the economic arguments - the practicalities of the markets - how predictions are used - how predictions are made - how predictions are turned into something usable (asset locations) It combines a discussion of standard theory with state-of-the-art material on a wide range of information processing techniques as applied to cutting-edge financial problems. All the techniques are demonstrated with real examples using actual market data, and show that it is possible to extract information from very noisy, sparse data sets. Aimed primarily at researchers in financial prediction, time series analysis and information processing, this book will also be of interest to quantitative fund managers and other professionals involved in financial prediction.
Book Synopsis Statistically Sound Indicators For Financial Market Prediction by : Timothy Masters
Download or read book Statistically Sound Indicators For Financial Market Prediction written by Timothy Masters and published by . This book was released on 2019-10-22 with total page 394 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In my decades of professional experience as a statistical consultant in the field of financial market trading, the single most important lesson that I've learned about trading is this: the quality of the indicators is vastly more important than the quality of the trading algorithm or predictive model. If you are sloppy about your indicator computation, no high-tech model or algorithm is going to bail you out. Garbage in, garbage out still rules. This book presents numerous traditional and modern indicators that have been shown to carry significant predictive information. But it will do far more than just that. In addition to a wealth of useful indicators, you will see the following issues discussed: There are simple tests that let you measure the potential information-carrying capacity of an indicator. If your proposed indicator fails this information-capacity test, you should consider revising it. This book describes simple transformations that raise the information-carrying capacity of your indicators and make them more useful for algorithmic trading. You will learn how to locate the regions in your indicator's domain where maximum predictive power occurs so that you can focus on these important values. You will learn how to compute statistically sound probabilities to help you decide whether the performance of an indicator is legitimate or just the product of random good luck. Most traditional indicators examine one market at a time. But you will learn how examining pairs of markets, or even large collections of markets simultaneously, can provide valuable indicators that quantify complex inter-market relationships. Govinda Khalsa devised a powerful indicator called the Follow-Through Index which reveals how likely it is that an existing trend will continue. This indicator is extremely useful to trend-following traders, but due to its complexity it is not widely employed. This book presents its essential theory and implementation in C++. Gary Anderson developed a detailed and profound theory of market behavior that he calls The JANUS Factor. This theory enables computation of several powerful indicators that tell us, among other things, when trading opportunities are most likely to be profitable and when we should stay out of the market. This book provides the fundamental theory behind The JANUS Factor along with extensive C++ code. Whether you compute a few indicators and trade by watching their plots on a computer screen, or do simple automated algorithmic trading, or employ sophisticated predictive models, this book provides tools that help you take your trading to a higher, more profitable level.
Book Synopsis An Experimental Analysis of Information Acquisition in Prediction Markets by : Lionel Page
Download or read book An Experimental Analysis of Information Acquisition in Prediction Markets written by Lionel Page and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.
Book Synopsis Regulating Competition in Stock Markets by : Lawrence R. Klein
Download or read book Regulating Competition in Stock Markets written by Lawrence R. Klein and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-04-25 with total page 403 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A guide to curbing monopoly power in stock markets Engaging and informative, Regulating Competition in Stock Markets skillfully analyzes the impact of the recent global financial crisis on health and happiness, and uses this opportunity to put regulatory systems in perspective. Happiness is lost because of emotional and physical health deterioration resulting from the crisis. Therefore, the authors conclude that financial crisis prevention should be the focus of public policy. This book is the most comprehensive study so far on potential risks to the stock market, especially various forms of market manipulation that lead to mania and eventual crisis. Based on litigation cases from international stock markets, and borrowing multidisciplinary findings in the fields of finance, economics, accounting, media studies, criminology, legal studies, psychology, and medicine, this book is the first to provide thorough micro-level regulatory proposals rooted in financial reality. By focusing on securities trading, they apply antitrust measures to limiting monopolistic power that is used for the manipulation of investors' perception and monopolistic profit. These proposals are quantifiable, adjustable, inexpensive, and can be easily implemented by any securities regulating agency for real-time oversight and daily operations. The recommendations found here are intended to improve the fairness and transparency of the financial markets, thereby perfecting the market competition, protecting investors, stabilizing the market, and preventing crises Explores how avoiding crises can to contribute to a more scientific, health aware, and civilized economic and social development Written by a team of authors who have extensive experience in this dynamic field, including Nobel Laureate Lawrence R. Klein Since the founding of the first, organized stock exchange in Amsterdam 400 years ago, no systematic economic research results on stock markets have been implemented in stock market regulation around the world. Regulating Competition in Stock Markets aims to fill this void.
