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Market Efficiency And Returns To Simple Technical Trading Rules
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Book Synopsis Market Efficiency and Returns to Simple Technical Trading Rules by : Gary Gang Tian
Download or read book Market Efficiency and Returns to Simple Technical Trading Rules written by Gary Gang Tian and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 23 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Numerous studies in the finance literature have investigated technical analysis to determine its validity as an investment tool. This study is an attempt to explore whether some forms of technical analysis can predict stock price movement and make excess profits based on certain trading rules in markets with different efficiency level. To avoid using arbitrarily selected 26 trading rules as did by Brock, Lakonishok and LeBaron (1992) and later by Bessembinder and Chan (1998), this paper examines predictive power and profitability of simple trading rules by expanding their universe of 26 rules to 412 rules. In order to find out the relationship between market efficiency and excess return by applying trading rules, we examine excess return over periods in US markets and also compare the excess returns between US market and Chinese markets. Our results found that there is no evidence at all supporting technical forecast power by these trading rules in US equity index after 1975. During the 1990's break-even costs turned to be negative, -0.06%, even failing to beat a buy-holding strategy in US equity market. In comparison, our results provide support for the technical strategies even in the presence of trading cost in Chinese stock markets.
Book Synopsis Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by : John J. Murphy
Download or read book Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets written by John J. Murphy and published by Penguin. This book was released on 1999-01-01 with total page 579 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: John J. Murphy has updated his landmark bestseller Technical Analysis of the Futures Markets, to include all of the financial markets. This outstanding reference has already taught thousands of traders the concepts of technical analysis and their application in the futures and stock markets. Covering the latest developments in computer technology, technical tools, and indicators, the second edition features new material on candlestick charting, intermarket relationships, stocks and stock rotation, plus state-of-the-art examples and figures. From how to read charts to understanding indicators and the crucial role technical analysis plays in investing, readers gain a thorough and accessible overview of the field of technical analysis, with a special emphasis on futures markets. Revised and expanded for the demands of today's financial world, this book is essential reading for anyone interested in tracking and analyzing market behavior.
Book Synopsis A Test of Market Efficiency: a Technical Trading Rule by : Joseph H. Kozloff
Download or read book A Test of Market Efficiency: a Technical Trading Rule written by Joseph H. Kozloff and published by . This book was released on 1982 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Technical Trading Rules Empirical Evidence from Future Data by : Philipp Jan Siegert
Download or read book Technical Trading Rules Empirical Evidence from Future Data written by Philipp Jan Siegert and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2005-10-27 with total page 76 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Master's Thesis from the year 2005 in the subject Business economics - Banking, Stock Exchanges, Insurance, Accounting, grade: A, Sophia Antipolis Campus (France); SKEMA Business School (Global Finance Chair), language: English, abstract: Most banks and the recently upcoming hedge fund industry rely to a different extent on technical trading rules and technical analysis. The fact that these technical trading rules yield superior returns in practice raises several questions that will be examined in the thesis. First, one of the most crucial questions is in which assets technical trading rules perform extraordinarily well. This analysis is based on a risk-return approach with an assessment of the negative standard deviation of each asset as a risk indicator. Second, the statistical significance of technical trading is examined by using a simulation method known as bootstrap. Third, null models are simulated to answer the question to what extent autoregressive models and GARCH models are able to capture the dependencies in the time series. Finally, a rule optimizer is used to assess if any rule parameters yield superior returns over a wide range of assets. We find that under a risk-return perspective trading rules look very attractive as most rules are able to significantly reduce the negative standard deviation compared to a buy-and-hold strategy. However, not all rules are able to outperform a simple buy-and-hold strategy in terms of absolute return. Statistical significance is generally weak and only some rules can be qualified as highly statistically significant. We do not find much evidence that autoregressive and GARCH null models perform well in capturing the dependencies that lead to superior returns of technical trading rules. With respect to trading rule parameters we find that shorter rules generally perform better when trading costs are not considered and that currencies benefited from a larger standard deviation trading band.
Book Synopsis Technical Trading Rules and Financial Markets by : David H. Goldbaum
Download or read book Technical Trading Rules and Financial Markets written by David H. Goldbaum and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 230 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Comparative Study of Technical Trading Rules, Time-series Trading Rules and Combined Technical and Time-series Trading Strategies in the Australian Stock Exchange by : Elaine Loh
Download or read book A Comparative Study of Technical Trading Rules, Time-series Trading Rules and Combined Technical and Time-series Trading Strategies in the Australian Stock Exchange written by Elaine Loh and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 466 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: [Truncated abstract] This thesis examines and compares the performance of three classes of stock trading strategies in the Australian stock market from 1980 to 2002. ... The first segment of this thesis examines some simple technical trading rules with a twostep methodology ... Our standard test results show that technical trading rules generate excess returns higher than that of the buy-and-hold portfolio equivalent prior to 1991, but generate lower returns in the period post-1991. Bootstrap test results also show that addressing nonnormality, time-dependence and conditional heteroskedasticity in the data reverses the standard test outcome of predictability ... In addition, our sub-sample results also show technical trading rules becoming less profitable over time ... The second segment of this thesis examines trading rules based on the forecasts of four time-series models: the AR(1), AR(1)-GARCH(1,1), AR(1)-GARCH(1,1)-M and AR(1)- EGARCH(1,1) models. These time-series trading rules were examined with standard t-tests and found to be significantly less profitable compared to technical trading rules. Subsample results also show the time-series trading rules losing profitability over time, which supports the conjecture that the Australian stock market became increasingly efficient over time. The third segment of this thesis examines trading strategies based on various combinations of technical trading rules and time-series models ... Due to the weak performance of the time-series trading rules, our results show that combining technical rules with time-series models do not lead to improved forecast accuracy. Sub-sample results again show a strong decline in profitability post-1991, suggesting that technological advancements in the ASX since 1991 enhance market efficiency such that the above simple stock trading strategies are no longer profitable.
Book Synopsis Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis by : Hendrik Bessembinder
Download or read book Market Efficiency and the Returns to Technical Analysis written by Hendrik Bessembinder and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We further investigate and provide interpretation for the intriguing Brock, Lakonishok, and LeBaron (1992) finding that simple forms of technical analysis contain significant forecast power for US equity index returns. We document that the forecast ability is partially, but not solely, attributable to return measurement errors arising from nonsynchronous trading. We argue that the evidence supporting technical forecast power need not be inconsistent with market efficiency. quot;Break-evenquot; one-way trading costs are computed to be 0.39% for the full sample and 0.22% since 1975, which are small compared to recent estimates of actual trading costs. Further, we test but fail to reject a key restriction that most equilibrium models place on return forecast ability: that the technical rules should not reliably identify periods of negative market risk premia.
Book Synopsis Technical Analysis: Modern Perspectives by : Gordon Scott
Download or read book Technical Analysis: Modern Perspectives written by Gordon Scott and published by CFA Institute Research Foundation. This book was released on 2016-11-14 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Nonlinear Technical Trading Rules Profits and Relative Efficiency by : Nicolas Wesner
Download or read book Nonlinear Technical Trading Rules Profits and Relative Efficiency written by Nicolas Wesner and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In an application to the CAC40 daily's returns, a trading rule based on predictions given by the nearest neighbour method is shown to exhibit higher profitability than a buy-and-hold strategy only for low transactions costs and during high volatility episodes. Those results are interpreted as a sign of the relative inefficiency of the french stock market during abnormally high volatility episodes.
Book Synopsis Technical Trading Rules and Market Efficiency by : Elaine Loh
Download or read book Technical Trading Rules and Market Efficiency written by Elaine Loh and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets by : Leighton Vaughan Williams
Download or read book Information Efficiency in Financial and Betting Markets written by Leighton Vaughan Williams and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-09-29 with total page 412 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The degree to which markets incorporate information is one of the most important questions facing economists today. This book provides a fascinating study of the existence and extent of information efficiency in financial markets, with a special focus on betting markets. Betting markets are selected for study because they incorporate features highly appropriate to a study of information efficiency, in particular the fact that each bet has a well-defined end point at which its value becomes certain. Using international examples, this book reviews and analyses the issue of information efficiency in both financial and betting markets. Part I is an extensive survey of the existing literature, while Part II presents a range of readings by leading academics. Insights gained from the book will interest students of financial economics, financial market analysts, mathematicians and statisticians, and all those with a special interest in finance or gambling.
Book Synopsis Technical Analysis And Financial Asset Forecasting: From Simple Tools To Advanced Techniques by : Raymond Hon-fu Chan
Download or read book Technical Analysis And Financial Asset Forecasting: From Simple Tools To Advanced Techniques written by Raymond Hon-fu Chan and published by World Scientific Publishing Company. This book was released on 2014-08-19 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Technical analysis is defined as the tracking and prediction of asset price movements using charts and graphs in combination with various mathematical and statistical methods. More precisely, it is the quantitative criteria used in predicting the relative strength of buying and selling forces within a market to determine what to buy, what to sell, and when to execute trades. This book introduces simple technical analysis tools like moving averages and Bollinger bands, and also advanced techniques such as wavelets and empirical mode decomposition. It first discusses some traditional tools in technical analysis, such as trend, trend Line, trend channel, Gann's Theory, moving averages, and Bollinger bands. It then introduces a recent indicator developed for stock market and two recent techniques used in the technical analysis field: wavelets and the empirical mode decomposition in financial time series. The book also discusses the theory to test the performance of the indicators and introduces the MATLAB Financial Toolbox, some of the functions/codes of which are used in our numerical experiments.
Book Synopsis Profitability Evaluation of Major Technical Analysis Trading Strategies Applied to the S&P 500 from 2005 to 2023 by : David Neufang
Download or read book Profitability Evaluation of Major Technical Analysis Trading Strategies Applied to the S&P 500 from 2005 to 2023 written by David Neufang and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2024-09-03 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bachelor Thesis from the year 2024 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1.0, Reutlingen University, language: English, abstract: This thesis will examine how the efficient market hypothesis (Fama, 1965), the random-walk hypothesis, and the Martingale model relate to the profitability of technical analysis. Additionally, relevant research on profitability up to 2023 will be presented and summarized, highlighting major findings in the context of profitability following technical trading rules. The contribution to current research is made by testing the profitability of popular technical analysis strategies and discussing the underlying reasons for any observed profitability. Furthermore, a separate analysis will be conducted, applying four technical analysis strategies to the S&P 500 time series from 2005 to 2023. This thesis shows that none of the, in selected literature deemed profitable, trading strategies applied by Marshall (2017), Kuang et al. (2014), and Brock et al. (1992) are outperforming a S&P 500 buy-and-hold strategy between 2005 and 2023. Robustness checks such as break-even transaction cost analysis show that only two moving average variation strategies are profitable at the 20 basis points transaction cost level. Neglecting this influence of transaction costs, only one of these strategies’ returns are greater than those of a buy-and-hold strategy, though still of unsignificant nature. Nevertheless, technical analysis strategies exhibit superior performance in terms of Sharpe ratio compared to the buy-and-hold approach. This is primarily due to this thesis’ assumption of investing in risk-free treasury bills when not allocated to the S&P 500 index.
Book Synopsis Short Introduction to Corporate Finance by : Raghavendra Rau
Download or read book Short Introduction to Corporate Finance written by Raghavendra Rau and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2017-01-11 with total page 196 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Short Introduction to Corporate Finance provides an accessibly written guide to contemporary financial institutional practice. Rau deploys both his professional expertise and experience of teaching MBA and graduate-level courses to produce a lively discussion of the key concepts of finance, liberally illustrated with real-world examples. Built around six essential paradigms, he builds an integrated framework covering all the major ideas in finance over the past half-century. Ideal for students and practitioners alike, it will become core reading for anyone aspiring to become an effective manager.
Book Synopsis Finance 2: Asset Allocation and Market Efficiency by : Michael Frömmel
Download or read book Finance 2: Asset Allocation and Market Efficiency written by Michael Frömmel and published by BoD – Books on Demand. This book was released on 2023-03-22 with total page 378 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This books builds on 'Finance 1: Portfolio Theory and Management'. Both volumes are linked through the asset allocation process. While Finance 1 focuses on portfolio theory and strategic asset allocation, Finance 2 deals with tactical asset allocation and market efficiency. We start by reviewing the asset allocation process, market timing and the approach by Black and Litterman. Section 2 deals with the predictability of prices, including technical analysis and momentum. Turning to factors that may cause the predictability - if there is any - we discuss models from behavioural finance. The subsequent section deals with bubbles and herd behaviour, before we cover market microstructure and its implications. The book's last section deals with price manipulation as a cause for inefficiencies.
Book Synopsis Soft Computing in Computer and Information Science by : Antoni Wiliński
Download or read book Soft Computing in Computer and Information Science written by Antoni Wiliński and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-03-19 with total page 445 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book presents a carefully selected and reviewed collection of papers presented during the 19th Advanced Computer Systems conference ACS-2014. The Advanced Computer Systems conference concentrated from its beginning on methods and algorithms of artificial intelligence. Further future brought new areas of interest concerning technical informatics related to soft computing and some more technological aspects of computer science such as multimedia and computer graphics, software engineering, web systems, information security and safety or project management. These topics are represented in the present book under the categories Artificial Intelligence, Design of Information and Multimedia Systems, Information Technology Security and Software Technologies.
Book Synopsis The Financial Times Guide to Technical Analysis by : Jacinta Chan
Download or read book The Financial Times Guide to Technical Analysis written by Jacinta Chan and published by Pearson UK. This book was released on 2013-03-06 with total page 241 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Beginning with the very basics of technical analysis and market price behaviour, this book teaches you how to apply these concepts and principles to your own trading. With this comprehensive and straight talking guide you will soon be using the same successful techniques and formulas as the professionals. Learn how to: Understand those trading systems that will generate high returns Identify price patterns and trends Use the right technical indicators to get the best out of the markets Write and execute a trading plan that increases your chances of beating the market
