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Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty
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Book Synopsis Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty by : Bruce F. Baird
Download or read book Managerial Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Bruce F. Baird and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 1991-01-16 with total page 546 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How to improve decision-making skills in realistic situations and do it in a reasonably nonmathematical fashion. Develops practical techniques for deciding upon the best strategies in a variety of situations. Provides methods for reducing complex problems to easily-drawn decision diagrams (trees), supported by real-world examples. Includes detailed cases that employ the methods described in the text. Each chapter contains illustrative examples and exercises.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by Mykel J. Kochenderfer and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2015-07-24 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An introduction to decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective, covering both theory and applications ranging from speech recognition to airborne collision avoidance. Many important problems involve decision making under uncertainty—that is, choosing actions based on often imperfect observations, with unknown outcomes. Designers of automated decision support systems must take into account the various sources of uncertainty while balancing the multiple objectives of the system. This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents. A series of applications shows how the theoretical concepts can be applied to systems for attribute-based person search, speech applications, collision avoidance, and unmanned aircraft persistent surveillance. Decision Making Under Uncertainty unifies research from different communities using consistent notation, and is accessible to students and researchers across engineering disciplines who have some prior exposure to probability theory and calculus. It can be used as a text for advanced undergraduate and graduate students in fields including computer science, aerospace and electrical engineering, and management science. It will also be a valuable professional reference for researchers in a variety of disciplines.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : David E. Bell
Download or read book Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by David E. Bell and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1995 with total page 228 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These authors draw on nearly 50 years of combined teaching and consulting experience to give readers a straightforward yet systematic approach for making estimates about the likelihood and consequences of future events -- and then using those assessments to arrive at sound decisions. The book's real-world cases, supplemented with expository text and spreadsheets, help readers master such techniques as decision trees and simulation, such concepts as probability, the value of information, and strategic gaming; and such applications as inventory stocking problems, bidding situations, and negotiating.
Book Synopsis Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information by : Efstratios Nikolaidis
Download or read book Design Decisions Under Uncertainty with Limited Information written by Efstratios Nikolaidis and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2017-06-16 with total page 538 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Today's business environment involves design decisions with significant uncertainty. To succeed, decision-makers should replace deterministic methods with a risk-based approach that accounts for the decision maker¿s risk tolerance. In many problems, it is impractical to collect data because rare or one-time events are involved. Therefore, we need a methodology to model uncertainty and make choices when we have limited information. This methodology must use all available information and rely only on assumptions that are supported by evidence. This book explains theories and tools to represent uncertainty using both data and expert judgment. It teaches the reader how to make design or business decisions when there is limited information with these tools. Readers will learn a structured, risk-based approach, which is based on common sense principles, for design and business decisions. These decisions are consistent with the decision-maker¿s risk attitude. The book is exceptionally suited as educational material because it uses everyday language and real-life examples to elucidate concepts. It demonstrates how these concepts touch our lives through many practical examples, questions and exercises. These are designed to help students learn that first they should understand a problem and then establish a strategy for solving it, instead of using trial-and-error approaches. This volume is intended for undergraduate and graduate courses in mechanical, civil, industrial, aerospace, and ocean engineering and for researchers and professionals in these disciplines. It will also benefit managers and students in business administration who want to make good decisions with limited information.
Book Synopsis Decisions Under Uncertainty by : Ian Jordaan
Download or read book Decisions Under Uncertainty written by Ian Jordaan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2005-04-07 with total page 696 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Publisher Description
Book Synopsis Managing Project Uncertainty by : David Cleden
Download or read book Managing Project Uncertainty written by David Cleden and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2017-03-02 with total page 131 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dealing effectively with uncertainty requires today's project manager to be familiar with a broad spectrum of strategies, encompassing both 'hard' and 'soft' methods. This theme of unified thinking (i.e. the need to selectively draw upon a wide range of strategies in any given situation) will differentiate the book from its contemporaries. By picking up where traditional risk management techniques begin to fail, it brings together leading-edge thinking from a variety of disciplines and shows how these techniques can be used to conquer uncertainty in projects. The ability to make good decisions when faced with uncertainty is the real challenge. It is a universal truth that a decision is only as good as the information it is based on. But good information is often hard to come by, and all projects are vulnerable to the unknown and the unknowable. Thus, uncertainty becomes the sworn enemy of the project manager. Wherever we try to analyse, quantify, plan and act, uncertainty lies in wait to surprise us with its ambiguity and unpredictability. It lurks in every stage of the project lifecycle: in the planning (how long will this really take?), the initiation (this isn't the situation I expected!), the execution (who could have foreseen that happening?), and even the completion of a project (where are the expected benefits?). But managing uncertainty is a lot more than just applying risk management techniques. It requires a deep appreciation of how uncertainty arises and, by recognising its different guises, the appropriate strategies can be formulated. If we can learn how to reduce uncertainty, we can make better management decisions and increase the chances of the project succeeding. This book addresses five key questions: ¢ Why is there uncertainty in projects? ¢ How do you spot the symptoms of uncertainty, preferably at an early stage? ¢ What can be done to avoid uncertainty? ¢ What strategies can be used to deal with project uncertainty? ¢ How can both the individual and the organisation learn to cope more effectively in the future? The reader is assumed to be a either a project management professional, or a senior manager looking for ways to improve project management strategy within their organisation. As such, a foundation in project management basics is assumed, although not essential. The book then builds on this by exposing new ideas and concepts, and shows how these can be harnessed to tackle uncertainty in its many guises.
Book Synopsis Investment under Uncertainty by : Robert K. Dixit
Download or read book Investment under Uncertainty written by Robert K. Dixit and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-07-14 with total page 484 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: How should firms decide whether and when to invest in new capital equipment, additions to their workforce, or the development of new products? Why have traditional economic models of investment failed to explain the behavior of investment spending in the United States and other countries? In this book, Avinash Dixit and Robert Pindyck provide the first detailed exposition of a new theoretical approach to the capital investment decisions of firms, stressing the irreversibility of most investment decisions, and the ongoing uncertainty of the economic environment in which these decisions are made. In so doing, they answer important questions about investment decisions and the behavior of investment spending. This new approach to investment recognizes the option value of waiting for better (but never complete) information. It exploits an analogy with the theory of options in financial markets, which permits a much richer dynamic framework than was possible with the traditional theory of investment. The authors present the new theory in a clear and systematic way, and consolidate, synthesize, and extend the various strands of research that have come out of the theory. Their book shows the importance of the theory for understanding investment behavior of firms; develops the implications of this theory for industry dynamics and for government policy concerning investment; and shows how the theory can be applied to specific industries and to a wide variety of business problems.
Book Synopsis Completing the Forecast by : National Research Council
Download or read book Completing the Forecast written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2006-10-09 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty is a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction, and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty. Effective communication of uncertainty helps people better understand the likelihood of a particular event and improves their ability to make decisions based on the forecast. Nonetheless, for decades, users of these forecasts have been conditioned to receive incomplete information about uncertainty. They have become used to single-valued (deterministic) forecasts (e.g., "the high temperature will be 70 degrees Farenheit 9 days from now") and applied their own experience in determining how much confidence to place in the forecast. Most forecast products from the public and private sectors, including those from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service, continue this deterministic legacy. Fortunately, the National Weather Service and others in the prediction community have recognized the need to view uncertainty as a fundamental part of forecasts. By partnering with other segments of the community to understand user needs, generate relevant and rich informational products, and utilize effective communication vehicles, the National Weather Service can take a leading role in the transition to widespread, effective incorporation of uncertainty information into predictions. "Completing the Forecast" makes recommendations to the National Weather Service and the broader prediction community on how to make this transition.
Book Synopsis Decision-Making Under Uncertainty by : George K. Chacko
Download or read book Decision-Making Under Uncertainty written by George K. Chacko and published by Praeger. This book was released on 1991 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In real-life decision-making situations it is necessary to make decisions with incomplete information, for oftentimes uncertain results. In Decision-Making Under Uncertainty, Dr. Chacko applies his years of statistical research and experience to the analysis of twenty-four real-life decision-making situations, both those with few data points (eg: Cuban Missile Crisis), and many data points (eg: aspirin for heart attack prevention). These situations encompass decision-making in a variety of business, social and political, physical and biological, and military environments. Though different, all of these have one characteristic in common: their outcomes are uncertain/unkown, and unknowable. Chacko Demonstrates how the decision-maker can reduce uncertainty by choosing probable outcomes using the statistical methods he introduces. This detailed volume develops standard statistical concepts (t, x2, normal distribution, ANOVA), and the less familiar concepts (logical probability, subjective probability, Bayesian Inference, Penalty for Non-Fulfillment, Bluff-Threats Matrix, etc.). Chacko also offers a thorough discussion of the underlying theoretical principles. The end of each chapter contains a set of questions, three quarters of which focus on concepts, formulation, conclusion, resource commitments, and caveats; only one quarter with computations. Ideal for the practitioner, the work is also designed to serve as the primary text for graduate or advanced undergraduate courses in statistics and decision science.
Book Synopsis What Every Engineer Should Know About Decision Making Under Uncertainty by : John X. Wang
Download or read book What Every Engineer Should Know About Decision Making Under Uncertainty written by John X. Wang and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2002-07-01 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Covering the prediction of outcomes for engineering decisions through regression analysis, this succinct and practical reference presents statistical reasoning and interpretational techniques to aid in the decision making process when faced with engineering problems. The author emphasizes the use of spreadsheet simulations and decision trees as important tools in the practical application of decision making analyses and models to improve real-world engineering operations. He offers insight into the realities of high-stakes engineering decision making in the investigative and corporate sectors by optimizing engineering decision variables to maximize payoff.
Book Synopsis Quantitative Techniques for Managerial Decisions by : U. K. Srivastava
Download or read book Quantitative Techniques for Managerial Decisions written by U. K. Srivastava and published by New Age International. This book was released on 1989 with total page 962 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This Book Is Designed To Serve As A Text For Management, Economics, Accountancy (Chartered And Cost Accountancy), And Commerce Students. The Book Covers Concepts, Illustrations And Problems In Statistics And Operations Research. Part I Deals With Statistical Techniques For Decision Making. Part Ii Studies Various Operations Research Techniques For Managerial Decisions.The Book Contains Illustrations And Problems, Drawn Extensively From Various Functional Areas Of Management, Viz., Production, Finance, Marketing And Personnel, Which Are Designed To Understand Real Life Decision Making Situations. In Order To Make The Book Self-Contained, All Relevant Mathematical Concepts And Their Applications Have Been Included. To Enhance The Understanding Of The Subject Matter By The Students Belonging To Different Disciplines, The Approach Adopted In This Book, Both In Statistics And Operations Research, Is Conceptional Rather Than Mathematical. Hence Complicated Mathematical Proofs Have Been Avoided.This Book Would Be An Ideal Reference To Executives, Computer Professionals, Industrial Engineers, Economic Planners And Social Scientists. The Other Books By The Same Authors Are: Operations Research For Management And Business Statistics.
Book Synopsis Decision Making Under Certainty by : Arthur Schleifer
Download or read book Decision Making Under Certainty written by Arthur Schleifer and published by Thomson South-Western. This book was released on 1995 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is designed to help readers analyze, make economic tradeoffs and choose wisely in complex decision problems where uncertainty, for all practical purposes, can be ignored. The authors focus on decisions involving relevant costs and revenues, pricing, constraints, the time value of money, and the use of scenarios, or what if analysis.
Book Synopsis Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty by : Institute of Medicine
Download or read book Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty written by Institute of Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2013-05-20 with total page 280 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is one of several federal agencies responsible for protecting Americans against significant risks to human health and the environment. As part of that mission, EPA estimates the nature, magnitude, and likelihood of risks to human health and the environment; identifies the potential regulatory actions that will mitigate those risks and protect public health1 and the environment; and uses that information to decide on appropriate regulatory action. Uncertainties, both qualitative and quantitative, in the data and analyses on which these decisions are based enter into the process at each step. As a result, the informed identification and use of the uncertainties inherent in the process is an essential feature of environmental decision making. EPA requested that the Institute of Medicine (IOM) convene a committee to provide guidance to its decision makers and their partners in states and localities on approaches to managing risk in different contexts when uncertainty is present. It also sought guidance on how information on uncertainty should be presented to help risk managers make sound decisions and to increase transparency in its communications with the public about those decisions. Given that its charge is not limited to human health risk assessment and includes broad questions about managing risks and decision making, in this report the committee examines the analysis of uncertainty in those other areas in addition to human health risks. Environmental Decisions in the Face of Uncertainty explains the statement of task and summarizes the findings of the committee.
Book Synopsis Effective Decision-Making by : Edoardo Binda Zane
Download or read book Effective Decision-Making written by Edoardo Binda Zane and published by Createspace Independent Publishing Platform. This book was released on 2016-04-28 with total page 140 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The aim of this book is to quickly empower you to make better decisions by giving you step-by-step explanations of the best techniques. We always make decisions under uncertainty and pressure, especially in business. We need faster and better decisions to cope, but we don''t have the time to learn how to make them well. That is where I come in. I wrote this book to allow you to make better decisions without spending weeks studying theory and practice. THE INTRODUCTION gives you a snapshot of two decision-making biases, of the worst mistake you can do when making decision, and a lesson taken straight from philosophy. - Decision Biases (why your brain isn''t always your friend in decisions) - The Worst Mistake in Decision-Making - A Lesson From Another Time THE FIRST CHAPTER looks at frameworks of reference, meaning how you can apply decision-making to achieve your goals, for example how and why some decisions are able to automatically give you a competitive advantage. - The OODA Loop - The Recognition-Primed Decision Model - GROW or the John Whitmore Model - The PDSA Cycle CHAPTERS 2 TO 5 look at separate phases of decision-making: understanding your context, understanding the problem, generating solutions and selecting one option out of many. 2 - CONTEXT Contexts can be very different - and there is no one size fits all approach, which is why this book provides you with five. - SWOT and PEST - TELOS - Porter''s Five Forces - Causal Loops Diagrams 3 - PROBLEM ASSESSMENT Before making decisions, then, you need to work on finding out exactly what you are trying to solve. This chapter gives you 5 tools to do so: - Root Cause Analysis: Ishikawa''s Diagramand the 5 Whys Technique - Pareto Analysis - Kipling Method (5W1H) - CATWOE 4 - GENERATING IDEAS In "pure" decision-making, little attention is given to this phase, as it belongs to a different field: creativity. This book includes two tools: - Zwicky''s Box - SCAMPER 5 - WEIGHING ALTERNATIVES This book gives you six tools for this, each one with its specificities: - Weights and Factors: the Grid Analysis and the KT Matrix - The Paired Comparison Analysis - The Quantitative Strategic Planning Matrix - The Analytic Hierarchy Process - The Eisenhower Matrix CHAPTER 6 AND 7 look at group decisions, meaning whether it''s a good idea to make decisions in a group and, if it is, how that group should make decisions. 6 - DO YOU NEED YOUR TEAM? You can either involve your team in decisions or exclude them. Often, managers are torn between these two options - you have three tools to help you though: - The Vroom-Yetton-Jago Model - The Hoy-Tarter Model - The Hersey-Blanchard Model 7 - GROUP TECHNIQUES To be used when making decisions in a group is necessary. - The Nominal Group Technique - The Delphi Method - Hartnett''s Consensus-Oriented Decision-Making Model - The Stepladder Technique - DeBono''s Six Thinking Hats - The Charette Procedure - RAPID CHAPTERS 8 AND 9 look at decisions in corporate strategy and analyse a decision''s consequence 8 - CORPORATE STRATEGY These decision tools have all been developed for corporations, but they still hold value for smaller businesses. - The BCG Matrix - The Advantage Matrix - The GE Matrix - Blind Spot Analysis 9 - CONSEQUENCES In other words: "how can I make sure that the decision I made is the best one and will work in my specific situation?" Unfortunately nobody can answer this. Any decision method can only skew the odds of having made the right decision in your favour. That said, there are a few techniques you can apply. - Impact Assessment - Plus-Minus-Interesting - Decision Trees - Cost-Benefit Analysis - Futures Wheel
Book Synopsis Foundations of Risk Analysis by : Terje Aven
Download or read book Foundations of Risk Analysis written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-01-09 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Behaviour by : Melanie E. Kreye
Download or read book Uncertainty and Behaviour written by Melanie E. Kreye and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-04-14 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainty affects us in our everyday lives, and in a wide range of situations but how do individuals and indeed organisations respond to uncertainty and how does it impact their decision-making and actions? Based on the latest developments in academic research, the author offers solid advice on how to manage uncertainty in every-day life, bringing a new perspective to these issues and extrapolating this to offer implications for an organisational and managerial context. The author brings this emerging area of research to a wider audience by: Tying together insights from various fields including psychology, engineering, business and management. Creating a framework for usefully applying the research concepts in every-day life. Extrapolating insights from the psychology of individual decision makers to the organisational context and managerial decision-making. Creating highly applicable and impactful recommendations for how managers, organisations, and every day people can understand and manage uncertainty in their life. The book is divided into two main parts. Part I deals with the behaviour of individuals facing uncertainty and includes accessible explanations and examples of every-day applications, while Part II deals with behaviour in organisations facing uncertainty, where insights from Part I are combined and related to the organisational and work context to explore how, for example, (mis)-perceptions and decision-making biases impact managerial life. This is a must read for both managers and those who are seeking to better understand their own behaviour and management approach.
Download or read book Managing Under Uncertainty written by and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
