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Macrofinancial Causes Of Optimism In Growth Forecasts
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Book Synopsis Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts by : Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
Download or read book Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts written by Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-11-12 with total page 22 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater the expansion of the credit-to-GDP gap in the years preceding a program, the greater its over-optimism about growth over the next two years. This result is strongest among forecasts that were most optimistic, where errors are also increasing in the economy’s degree of liability dollarization. We find that the inefficient use of financial information applies to growth forecasts more broadly, including the IMF’s forecasts in the World Economic Outlook and those produced by professional forecasters compiled by Consensus Economics. We conclude that improved macrofinancial analysis represents a promising avenue for reducing over-optimism in growth forecasts.
Book Synopsis On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism by : Paul Beaudry
Download or read book On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism written by Paul Beaudry and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-30 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 : Total Pages :179 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (2 download)
Book Synopsis Operational Guidance Note On Program Design and Conditionality by : International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Download or read book Operational Guidance Note On Program Design and Conditionality written by International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2024-01-30 with total page 179 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note aims to provide guidance on the key principles and considerations underlying the design of Fund-supported programs. The note expands on the previous operational guidance notes on conditionality published over 2003-2014, incorporating lessons from the 2018-19 Review of Conditionality, and other recent key policy developments including the recommendation of the Management’s Implementation Plan in response to Independent Evaluation Office (IEO)’s report on growth and adjustment in IMF-supported programs. The note in particular highlights operational advice to (i) improve the realism of macroeconomic forecast in programs and fostering a more systematic analysis of contingency plans and risks; (ii) improve the focus, depth, implementation, and tailoring of structural conditions (SCs), with due consideration of growth effects; and (iii) help strengthen the ownership of country authorities. Designed as a comprehensive reference and primer on program design and conditionality in an accessible and transparent manner, the note refers in summary to a broad range of economic and policy considerations over the lifecycle of Fund-supported programs. As with all guidance notes, the relevant IMF Executive Board Decisions remain the primary legal authority on matters covered in this note.
Book Synopsis Macrofinancial Linkages by : Mr.Christopher W. Crowe
Download or read book Macrofinancial Linkages written by Mr.Christopher W. Crowe and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2010-08-25 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Macrofinancial linkages have long been at the core of the IMF's mandate to oversee the stability of the global financial system. With the advent of the economic crisis, the Fund has drawn on this research in order to contribute to critical debates on the nature of appropriate policy responses at both the national and multilateral levels. The current juncture offers a good opportunity to take stock of this body of research by IMF staff and to share it with a wider audience, particularly since few collections have been published in this area. This volume brings together some of the best writing by IMF economists on macrofinancial issues, and highlights the issues and approaches that have guided IMF thinking in an area that makes up an increasingly important component of the IMF's overall remit. The chapters in the volume fit into three broad themes: financial crises and boom-bust cycles; financial integration, financial liberalization, and economic performance; and policy issues relating to macroeconomic policy and the corporate and financial sectors-including domestic and external financial liberalization.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1589068068 Total Pages :252 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (89 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, April 2009 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, April 2009 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-04-22 with total page 252 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores how a dramatic escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008 provoked an unprecedented contraction of activity and trade, despite active policy responses. It presents economic projections for 2009 and 2010, and also looks beyond the current crisis, considering factors that will shape the landscape of the global economy over the medium term, as businesses and households seek to repair the damage. The analysis also outlines the difficult policy challenges presented by the overwhelming imperative to take all steps necessary to restore financial stability and revive the global economy, and the longer-run need for national actions to be mutually supporting. The first of two analytical chapters, "What Kind of Economic Recovery?" explores the shape of the eventual recovery. The second, "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging and Developing Economies," focuses on the role of external financial linkages and financial stress in transmitting economic shocks.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1616352477 Total Pages :94 pages Book Rating :4.6/5 (163 download)
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, April 2012 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, April 2012 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2012-04-18 with total page 94 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The April 2012 Global Financial Stability Report assesses changes in risks to financial stability over the past six months, focusing on sovereign vulnerabilities, risks stemming from private sector deleveraging, and assessing the continued resilience of emerging markets. The report probes the implications of recent reforms in the financial system for market perception of safe assets, and investigates the growing public and private costs of increased longevity risk from aging populations.
Book Synopsis On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism by : Paul Beaudry
Download or read book On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism written by Paul Beaudry and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-05-30 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we provide evidence that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. To examine this question, we look at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484308395 Total Pages :139 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017 by : International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept.
Download or read book Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017 written by International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Financial Systems Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2017-10-11 with total page 139 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The October 2017 Global Financial Stability Report finds that the global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth. It also includes a chapter that examines the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades’ rise in household debt. It documents large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis. Another chapter develops a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth and applies it to a set of 20 major advanced and emerging market economies. The chapter shows that changes in financial conditions shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth.
Book Synopsis Financial Crises in DSGE Models by : Mr.Jaromir Benes
Download or read book Financial Crises in DSGE Models written by Mr.Jaromir Benes and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-04-04 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper, together with a technical companion paper, presents MAPMOD, a new IMF model designed to study vulnerabilities associated with excessive credit expansions, and to support macroprudential policy analysis. In MAPMOD, bank loans create purchasing power that facilitates adjustments in the real economy. But excessively large and risky loans can impair balance sheets and sow the seeds of a financial crisis. Banks respond to losses through higher spreads and rapid credit cutbacks, with adverse effects for the real economy. These features allow the model to capture the basic facts of both the pre-crisis and crisis phases of financial cycles.
Book Synopsis Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality by : Ms.Era Dabla-Norris
Download or read book Causes and Consequences of Income Inequality written by Ms.Era Dabla-Norris and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2015-06-15 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the extent of income inequality from a global perspective, its drivers, and what to do about it. The drivers of inequality vary widely amongst countries, with some common drivers being the skill premium associated with technical change and globalization, weakening protection for labor, and lack of financial inclusion in developing countries. We find that increasing the income share of the poor and the middle class actually increases growth while a rising income share of the top 20 percent results in lower growth—that is, when the rich get richer, benefits do not trickle down. This suggests that policies need to be country specific but should focus on raising the income share of the poor, and ensuring there is no hollowing out of the middle class. To tackle inequality, financial inclusion is imperative in emerging and developing countries while in advanced economies, policies should focus on raising human capital and skills and making tax systems more progressive.
Book Synopsis A Decade after the Global Recession by : M. Ayhan Kose
Download or read book A Decade after the Global Recession written by M. Ayhan Kose and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2021-03-19 with total page 475 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This year marks the tenth anniversary of the 2009 global recession. Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space. This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks. The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.
Book Synopsis Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy by : International Monetary Fund
Download or read book Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy written by International Monetary Fund and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2014-06-11 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides guidance to facilitate the staff’s advice on macroprudential policy in Fund surveillance. It elaborates on the principles set out in the “Key Aspects of Macroprudential Policy,” taking into account the work of international standard setters as well as the evolving country experience with macroprudential policy. The main note is accompanied by supplements offering Detailed Guidance on Instruments and Considerations for Low Income Countries
Book Synopsis The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability by : Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques
Download or read book The Riskiness of Credit Allocation and Financial Stability written by Mr.Luis Brandao-Marques and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-27 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We explore empirically how the time-varying allocation of credit across firms with heterogeneous credit quality matters for financial stability outcomes. Using firm-level data for 55 countries over 1991-2016, we show that the riskiness of credit allocation, captured by Greenwood and Hanson (2013)’s ISS indicator, helps predict downside risks to GDP growth and systemic banking crises, two to three years ahead. Our analysis indicates that the riskiness of credit allocation is both a measure of corporate vulnerability and of investor sentiment. Economic forecasters wrongly predict a positive association between the riskiness of credit allocation and future growth, suggesting a flawed expectations process.
Book Synopsis Asian Development Outlook 2020 by : Asian Development Bank
Download or read book Asian Development Outlook 2020 written by Asian Development Bank and published by Asian Development Bank. This book was released on 2020-04-01 with total page 737 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: After a disappointing 2019, growth prospects in developing Asia have worsened under the impact of the current health crisis. Signs of incipient recovery near the turn of this year were quickly overthrown as COVID-19 broke out in January 2020 in the region’s largest economy and subsequently expanded into a global pandemic. Disruption to regional and global supply chains, trade, and tourism, and the continued spread of the outbreak, leave the region reeling under massive economic shocks and financial turmoil. Across Asia, the authorities are responding with policies to contain the outbreak, facilitate medical interventions, and support vulnerable businesses and households. Assuming that the outbreak is contained this year, growth is expected to recover in 2021. Especially to face down fundamental threats such as the current medical emergency, innovation is critical to growth and development. As some economies in developing Asia challenge the innovation frontier, many others lag. More and better innovation is needed in the region to sustain growth that is more inclusive and environmentally sustainable. Five key drivers of innovation are sound education, productive entrepreneurship, high-quality institutions, efficient financial systems, and dynamic cities that excite knowledge exchange. The journey to creating an innovative society takes long-term commitment and hard work.
Book Synopsis Emerging Market Economies and Financial Globalization by : Leonardo E. Stanley
Download or read book Emerging Market Economies and Financial Globalization written by Leonardo E. Stanley and published by Anthem Press. This book was released on 2018-03-15 with total page 260 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In the past, foreign shocks arrived to national economies mainly through trade channels, and transmissions of such shocks took time to come into effect. However, after capital globalization, shocks spread to markets almost immediately. Despite the increasing macroeconomic dangers that the situation generated at emerging markets in the South, nobody at the North was ready to acknowledge the pro-cyclicality of the financial system and the inner weakness of “decontrolled” financial innovations because they were enjoying from the “great moderation.” Monetary policy was primarily centered on price stability objectives, without considering the mounting credit and asset price booms being generated by market liquidity and the problems generated by this glut. Mainstream economists, in turn, were not majorly attracted in integrating financial factors in their models. External pressures on emerging market economies (EMEs) were not eliminated after 2008, but even increased as international capital flows augmented in relevance thereafter. Initially economic authorities accurately responded to the challenge, but unconventional monetary policies in the US began to create important spillovers in EMEs. Furthermore, in contrast to a previous surge in liquidity, funds were now transmitted to EMEs throughout the bond market. The perspective of an increase in US interest rates by the FED is generating a reversal of expectations and a sudden flight to quality. Emerging countries’ currencies began to experience higher volatility levels, and depreciation movements against a newly strong US dollar are also increasingly observed. Consequently, there are increasing doubts that the “unexpected” favorable outcome observed in most EMEs at the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) would remain.
Book Synopsis World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 by : United Nations
Download or read book World Economic Situation and Prospects 2019 written by United Nations and published by UN. This book was released on 2019-02-15 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United Nations definitive report on the state of the world economy, providing global and regional economic outlook for 2019 and 2020. Produced by the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the five UN regional commissions, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, with contributions from the UN World Tourism Organization.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN 13 :9781513556055 Total Pages :203 pages Book Rating :4.5/5 (56 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2020 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2020 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND. This book was released on 2020-10-13 with total page 203 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The global economy is climbing out from the depths to which it had plummeted during the Great Lockdown in April. But with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, many countries have slowed reopening and some are reinstating partial lockdowns to protect susceptible populations. While recovery in China has been faster than expected, the global economy’s long ascent back to pre-pandemic levels of activity remains prone to setbacks.
