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Author : Marika Karanassou
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.X/5 (4 download)
Download or read book Long-run Inflation-unemployment Dynamics written by Marika Karanassou and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Marika Karanassou
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Phillips Curves and Unemployment Dynamics written by Marika Karanassou and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The conventional wisdom that inflation and unemployment are unrelated in the long run implies the compartmentalization of macroeconomics. While one branch of the literature models inflation dynamics and estimates the unemployment rate compatible with inflation stability, another one determines the real economic factors that drive the natural rate of unemployment. In the context of the new Phillips curve, we show that frictional growth, i.e. the interplay between lags and growth, generates an inflation-unemployment trade-off in the long run. We thus argue that a holistic framework, such as the chain reaction theory (CRT), should be used to jointly explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment. A further attraction of the CRT approach is that it provides a synthesis of the traditional structural macroeconometric models and the (structural) vector autoregressions.
Author : Pierpaolo Benigno
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451871813
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book The Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off at Low Inflation written by Pierpaolo Benigno and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2009-03-01 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Wage setters take into account the future consequences of their current wage choices in the presence of downward nominal wage rigidities. Several interesting implications arise. First, a closed-form solution for a long-run Phillips curve relates average unemployment to average wage inflation; the curve is virtually vertical for high inflation rates but becomes flatter as inflation declines. Second, macroeconomic volatility shifts the Phillips curve outward, implying that stabilization policies can play an important role in shaping the trade-off. Third, nominal wages tend to be endogenously rigid also upward, at low inflation. Fourth, when inflation decreases, volatility of unemployment increases whereas the volatility of inflation decreases: this implies a long-run trade-off also between the volatility of unemployment and that of wage inflation.
Author : Marika Karanassou
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 58 pages
Book Rating : 4.E/5 ( download)
Download or read book A Reappraisal of the Inflation-unemployment Tradeoff written by Marika Karanassou and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 58 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Rod Cross
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521483308
Total Pages : 404 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (833 download)
Download or read book The Natural Rate of Unemployment written by Rod Cross and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1995-06-22 with total page 404 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For 25 years, theory about the causes of, and possible solutions to, the problem of unemployment has been dominated by Phelps' and Friedman's natural rate of unemployment hypothesis. This postulates that the equilibrium rate of unemployment consistent with steady inflation is determined by structural variables: sustainable reductions in unemployment can be achieved only by measures to change underlying microeconomic structures, such as benefit and pay bargaining systems. Belief in the hypothesis has faltered since the 1980s, the hypothesis being unable to explain the dramatic upward shifts in European unemployment rates. These essays reflect upon the fundamental structures underlying the hypothesis, assess the related evidence, and look forwards, suggesting possible modifications. In contrast to the single rate postulated by the natural rate hypothesis, several of the contributors propose that there are ranges of unemployment rates consistent with steady inflation.
Author : Mr.Troy Matheson
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484334728
Total Pages : 12 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book The Great Recession and the Inflation Puzzle written by Mr.Troy Matheson and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-05-22 with total page 12 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Notwithstanding persistently-high unemployment following the Great Recession, inflation in the United States has been remarkably stable. We find that a traditional Phillips curve describes the behavior of inflation reasonably well since the 1960s. Using a non-linear Kalman filter that allows for time-varying parameters, we find that three factors have contributed to the observed stability of inflation: inflation expectations have become better anchored and to a lower level; the slope of the Phillips curve has flattened; and the importance of import-price inflation has increased.
Author : Charles C. Holt
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 124 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)
Download or read book The Unemployment-inflation Dilemma written by Charles C. Holt and published by . This book was released on 1971 with total page 124 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic research report on the limitations of present government policies for the elimination of unemployment and inflation in the USA - covers economic theories on the dynamics of prices and wages, economic implications of employment policy for the maintenance of full employment, the efficiency of monetary policy and fiscal policy formulation, social implications of labour force training programmes, etc. Bibliography pp. 103 to 107.
Author : Bradley Speigner
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (899 download)
Download or read book Long-term Unemployment and Convexity in the Phillips Curve written by Bradley Speigner and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Aleksander Berentsen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 45 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (225 download)
Download or read book Inflation and Unemployment in the Long Run written by Aleksander Berentsen and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 45 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the long-run relation between money, measured by inflation or interest rates, and unemployment. We first discuss data, documenting a strong positive relation between the variables at low frequencies. We then develop a framework where both money and unemployment are modeled using explicit microfoundations, integrating and extending recent work in macro and monetary economics, and providing a unified theory to analyze labor and goods markets. We calibrate the model, to ask how monetary factors account quantitatively for low-frequency labor market behavior. The answer depends on two key parameters: the elasticity of money demand, which translates monetary policy to real balances and profits; and the value of leisure, which affects the transmission from profits to entry and employment. For conservative parameterizations, money accounts for some but not that much of trend unemployment -- by one measure, about 1/5 of the increase during the stagflation episode of the 70s can be explained by monetary policy alone. For less conservative but still reasonable parameters, money accounts for almost all low-frequency movement in unemployment over the last half century.
Author : Stefano Fasani
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book On the Long-Run Unemployment, Inflation, and Volatility written by Stefano Fasani and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note revisits the relationship between unemployment and inflation in the long-run. Using data on OECD countries to capture low-frequency dynamics, panel regressions confirm the negative relationship between unemployment and inflation as in the short-run Phillips curve. Yet, inflation volatility is associated positively with unemployment. Empirical evidence is rationalized through the lens of a New-Keynesian model augmented with downward nominal wage rigidity (DNWR). Higher inflation volatility makes nominal wages more volatile and the constraint more likely to bind. Unemployment is more likely to raise above the natural level and its expected value in the long-run is higher.
Author : Samuel A. Morley
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9780030410161
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (11 download)
Download or read book Inflation and Unemployment written by Samuel A. Morley and published by . This book was released on 1979 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Marika Karanassou
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (83 download)
Download or read book Long-run inflation-unenmployment dynamics: the Spanish Phillips curve and economic policy[ written by Marika Karanassou and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Vania Esady
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (139 download)
Download or read book Revisiting the Effects of Long-term Unemployment on Inflation written by Vania Esady and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Luiggi Donayre
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 50 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book U.S. Wage Growth and Nonlinearities written by Luiggi Donayre and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 50 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Despite a low unemployment rate, wage growth in the U.S. was negligible during the 2013-2015 period. Conventional linear models of the relationship between wages and unemployment, the so- called wage Phillips curve (WPC), and previous models of the WPC that rely on regime-switching driven only by changes in unemployment, provide a poor fit in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Meanwhile, standard linear theoretical general equilibrium models are based on an assumption that economic agents take into account nominal wages relative to prices when making labor decisions, suggesting that there is a role for inflation in determining the empirical dynamics of the WPC. We employ a nonlinear empirical model to study how the relationship between U.S. wage growth and unemployment changes over the business cycle. In particular, we estimate a threshold vector autoregression with multiple threshold variables and multiple threshold parameters for each threshold variable for the 1965-2015 period. We find that the WPC changes according to the dynamics of both unemployment and inflation. Specifically, it changes as the unemployment rate transitions above or below the two estimated thresholds, defined by 5.03% and 7.77%. Simultaneously, it also evolves depending on whether inflation is above or below 0.38% relative to trend. The results show a strong negative relationship between wage growth and unemployment during periods of expansion when inflation is above its long-run trend. The relationship weakens, although remains negative, during periods of expansions with low inflation and during mild recessions. Our results indicate that the negligible wage growth observed during 2013-2015 was driven not only by labor market slack, as suggested by previous studies, but also by the low inflation environment.
Author : Paul Middleditch
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (86 download)
Download or read book Essays on Inflation Dynamics and Labour Market Frictions written by Paul Middleditch and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The inflation equation, more commonly known as the Phillips curve, lies at the heart of modern macroeconomic modeling. This Keynesian relationship between inflation and unemployment discovered by Phillips (1958) soon became widely adopted by policymakers in the 1960's. However, its empirical shortcomings led to competing theories such as the natural rate hypothesis by Friedman (1968), who alongside Phelps (1967) and Lucas (1972), condemned its implications of money non neutrality. More recently, the specification has adapted to capture nominal inertia led by the New Keynesian school of Fisher (1977) and Taylor (1980), as an answer to the classical result of neutrality. The Phillips curve remains as a relationship of interest to capture the aggregate behaviour of the supply side in the economy, connecting the labour market and the pricing decisions of firms. This Thesis consists of three self contained works, each of which are set out within their own chapter but connected by the employment of the theoretical framework of this inflation equation. They attempt to answer three specific economic questions related to inflation dynamics and labour market frictions. The first analysis concerns itself with the labour market policy of the working hours restriction; specifically with the question of how this labour market policy affects unemployment in the long run. I find weak evidence of a fall in unemployment shortly after the announcement of this policy. Secondly, whether or not one can capture the different characteristics displayed by the labour markets of the US and EU using labour market frictions in the determination of inflation dynamics. Our findings lead us to the conclusion that it is indeed possible to capture these characteristics when analyzing a Phillips curve specified in terms of unemployment. Lastly the question of whether aggregate prices are better represented by controlling for heterogeneity. The results obtained lead us to infer that controlling for heterogeneity of this kind does indeed affect the dynamics of the macro model and does not wash out in the aggregate.
Author : Laurence S. Seidman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (248 download)
Download or read book A Microeconomic Foundation for Inflation-unemployment Dynamics written by Laurence S. Seidman and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
