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Literature Review Of Methods For Representing Uncertainty
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Book Synopsis Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty by : Enrico Zio
Download or read book Literature review of methods for representing uncertainty written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2013-03-01 with total page 61 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document provides a critical review of different frameworks for uncertainty analysis, in a risk analysis context : classical probabilistic analysis, imprecise probability (interval analysis), probability bound analysis, evidence theory, and possibility theory. The driver of the critical analysis is the decision-making process and the need to feed it with representative information derived from the risk assessment, to robustly support the decision. Technical details of the different frameworks are exposed only to the extent necessary to analyze and judge how these contribute to the communication of risk and the representation of the associated uncertainties to decision-makers, in the typical settings of high-consequence risk analysis of complex systems with limited knowledge on their behaviour.
Download or read book Risk Analysis written by Enrico Zio and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Uncertainty in Risk Assessment by : Terje Aven
Download or read book Uncertainty in Risk Assessment written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2013-12-17 with total page 152 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Explores methods for the representation and treatment of uncertainty in risk assessment In providing guidance for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies (e.g., nuclear, oil and gas, transport, etc.), the theories and methods studied in Uncertainty in Risk Assessment have wide-ranging applications from engineering and medicine to environmental impacts and natural disasters, security, and financial risk management. The main focus, however, is on engineering applications. While requiring some fundamental background in risk assessment, as well as a basic knowledge of probability theory and statistics, Uncertainty in Risk Assessment can be read profitably by a broad audience of professionals in the field, including researchers and graduate students on courses within risk analysis, statistics, engineering, and the physical sciences. Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Illustrates the need for seeing beyond probability to represent uncertainties in risk assessment contexts. Provides simple explanations (supported by straightforward numerical examples) of the meaning of different types of probabilities, including interval probabilities, and the fundamentals of possibility theory and evidence theory. Offers guidance on when to use probability and when to use an alternative representation of uncertainty. Presents and discusses methods for the representation and characterization of uncertainty in risk assessment. Uses examples to clearly illustrate ideas and concepts.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty by : Millett Granger Morgan
Download or read book Uncertainty written by Millett Granger Morgan and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-08-31 with total page 376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis. This book outlines the source and nature of uncertainty, discusses techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment, and reviews a variety of simple and advanced methods for analyzing uncertainty.
Book Synopsis Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment by : National Research Council
Download or read book Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 1994-01-01 with total page 668 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The public depends on competent risk assessment from the federal government and the scientific community to grapple with the threat of pollution. When risk reports turn out to be overblownâ€"or when risks are overlookedâ€"public skepticism abounds. This comprehensive and readable book explores how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) can improve its risk assessment practices, with a focus on implementation of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments. With a wealth of detailed information, pertinent examples, and revealing analysis, the volume explores the "default option" and other basic concepts. It offers two views of EPA operations: The first examines how EPA currently assesses exposure to hazardous air pollutants, evaluates the toxicity of a substance, and characterizes the risk to the public. The second, more holistic, view explores how EPA can improve in several critical areas of risk assessment by focusing on cross-cutting themes and incorporating more scientific judgment. This comprehensive volume will be important to the EPA and other agencies, risk managers, environmental advocates, scientists, faculty, students, and concerned individuals.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty characterization in risk analysis for decision-making practice by : Enrico Zio
Download or read book Uncertainty characterization in risk analysis for decision-making practice written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2012-05-01 with total page 63 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This document provides an overview of sources of uncertainty in probabilistic risk analysis. For each phase of the risk analysis process (system modeling, hazard identification, estimation of the probability and consequences of accident sequences, risk evaluation), the authors describe and classify the types of uncertainty that can arise. The document provides : a description of the risk assessment process, as used in hazardous industries such as nuclear power and offshore oil and gas extraction ; a classification of sources of uncertainty (both epistemic and aleatory) and a description of techniques for uncertainty representation ; a description of the different steps involved in a Probabilistic Risk Assessement (PRA) or Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA), and an analysis of the types of uncertainty that can affect each of these steps ; annexes giving an overview of a number of tools used during probabilistic risk assessment, including the HAZID technique, fault trees and event tree analysis.
Book Synopsis Bayesian Reinforcement Learning by : Mohammad Ghavamzadeh
Download or read book Bayesian Reinforcement Learning written by Mohammad Ghavamzadeh and published by . This book was released on 2015-11-18 with total page 146 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Bayesian methods for machine learning have been widely investigated, yielding principled methods for incorporating prior information into inference algorithms. This monograph provides the reader with an in-depth review of the role of Bayesian methods for the reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm. The major incentives for incorporating Bayesian reasoning in RL are that it provides an elegant approach to action-selection (exploration/exploitation) as a function of the uncertainty in learning, and it provides a machinery to incorporate prior knowledge into the algorithms. Bayesian Reinforcement Learning: A Survey first discusses models and methods for Bayesian inference in the simple single-step Bandit model. It then reviews the extensive recent literature on Bayesian methods for model-based RL, where prior information can be expressed on the parameters of the Markov model. It also presents Bayesian methods for model-free RL, where priors are expressed over the value function or policy class. Bayesian Reinforcement Learning: A Survey is a comprehensive reference for students and researchers with an interest in Bayesian RL algorithms and their theoretical and empirical properties.
Book Synopsis Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis by : National Research Council
Download or read book Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-10 with total page 160 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The events of September 11, 2001 changed perceptions, rearranged national priorities, and produced significant new government entities, including the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) created in 2003. While the principal mission of DHS is to lead efforts to secure the nation against those forces that wish to do harm, the department also has responsibilities in regard to preparation for and response to other hazards and disasters, such as floods, earthquakes, and other "natural" disasters. Whether in the context of preparedness, response or recovery from terrorism, illegal entry to the country, or natural disasters, DHS is committed to processes and methods that feature risk assessment as a critical component for making better-informed decisions. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis explores how DHS is building its capabilities in risk analysis to inform decision making. The department uses risk analysis to inform decisions ranging from high-level policy choices to fine-scale protocols that guide the minute-by-minute actions of DHS employees. Although DHS is responsible for mitigating a range of threats, natural disasters, and pandemics, its risk analysis efforts are weighted heavily toward terrorism. In addition to assessing the capability of DHS risk analysis methods to support decision-making, the book evaluates the quality of the current approach to estimating risk and discusses how to improve current risk analysis procedures. Review of the Department of Homeland Security's Approach to Risk Analysis recommends that DHS continue to build its integrated risk management framework. It also suggests that the department improve the way models are developed and used and follow time-tested scientific practices, among other recommendations.
Book Synopsis Sensitivity & Uncertainty Analysis, Volume 1 by : Dan G. Cacuci
Download or read book Sensitivity & Uncertainty Analysis, Volume 1 written by Dan G. Cacuci and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2003-05-28 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As computer-assisted modeling and analysis of physical processes have continued to grow and diversify, sensitivity and uncertainty analyses have become indispensable investigative scientific tools in their own right. While most techniques used for these analyses are well documented, there has yet to appear a systematic treatment of the method based
Book Synopsis Uncertainty propagation and importance measure assessment by : Enrico Zio
Download or read book Uncertainty propagation and importance measure assessment written by Enrico Zio and published by FonCSI. This book was released on 2013-12-14 with total page 69 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The authors investigate the effects that different representations of epistemic uncertainty have on practical risk assessment problems. Two different application problems are considered: 1. the estimation of component importance measures in the presence of epistemic uncertainties; 2. the propagation of uncertainties through a risk flooding model. The focus is on the epistemic uncertainty affecting the parameters of the models that describe the components’ failures due to incomplete knowledge of their values. This epistemic uncertainty is represented using probability distributions when sufficient data is available for statistical analysis, and by possibility distributions when the information available to define the parameters’ values comes from experts, in the form of imprecise quantitative statements or judgments. Three case studies of increasing complexity are presented: a pedagogical example of importance measure assessment on a three-component system from the literature; assessment of importance measures for the auxiliary feed water system of a nuclear pressurized water reactor; an application in environmental modelling, with an analysis of uncertainty propagation in a hydraulic model for the risk-based design of a flood protection dike.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Quantification by : Ralph C. Smith
Download or read book Uncertainty Quantification written by Ralph C. Smith and published by SIAM. This book was released on 2013-12-02 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The field of uncertainty quantification is evolving rapidly because of increasing emphasis on models that require quantified uncertainties for large-scale applications, novel algorithm development, and new computational architectures that facilitate implementation of these algorithms. Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications provides readers with the basic concepts, theory, and algorithms necessary to quantify input and response uncertainties for simulation models arising in a broad range of disciplines. The book begins with a detailed discussion of applications where uncertainty quantification is critical for both scientific understanding and policy. It then covers concepts from probability and statistics, parameter selection techniques, frequentist and Bayesian model calibration, propagation of uncertainties, quantification of model discrepancy, surrogate model construction, and local and global sensitivity analysis. The author maintains a complementary web page where readers can find data used in the exercises and other supplementary material.
Book Synopsis Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis by : Bilal M. Ayyub
Download or read book Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis written by Bilal M. Ayyub and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-12-29 with total page 547 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The application areas of uncertainty are numerous and diverse, including all fields of engineering, computer science, systems control and finance. Determining appropriate ways and methods of dealing with uncertainty has been a constant challenge. The theme for this book is better understanding and the application of uncertainty theories. This book, with invited chapters, deals with the uncertainty phenomena in diverse fields. The book is an outgrowth of the Fourth International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis (ISUMA), which was held at the center of Adult Education, College Park, Maryland, in September 2003. All of the chapters have been carefully edited, following a review process in which the editorial committee scrutinized each chapter. The contents of the book are reported in twenty-three chapters, covering more than . . ... pages. This book is divided into six main sections. Part I (Chapters 1-4) presents the philosophical and theoretical foundation of uncertainty, new computational directions in neural networks, and some theoretical foundation of fuzzy systems. Part I1 (Chapters 5-8) reports on biomedical and chemical engineering applications. The sections looks at noise reduction techniques using hidden Markov models, evaluation of biomedical signals using neural networks, and changes in medical image detection using Markov Random Field and Mean Field theory. One of the chapters reports on optimization in chemical engineering processes.
Book Synopsis Handbook of EHealth Evaluation by : Francis Yin Yee Lau
Download or read book Handbook of EHealth Evaluation written by Francis Yin Yee Lau and published by . This book was released on 2016-11 with total page 487 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To order please visit https://onlineacademiccommunity.uvic.ca/press/books/ordering/
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Reasoning and Representation: a Comparison of Several Alternative Approaches by : Barbara S. Smith
Download or read book Uncertainty Reasoning and Representation: a Comparison of Several Alternative Approaches written by Barbara S. Smith and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "Much of the research done in Artificial Intelligence involves investigating and developing methods of incorporating uncertainty reasoning and representation into expert systems. Several methods have been proposed and attempted for handling uncertainty in problem solving situations. The theories range from numerical approaches based on strict probabilistic reasoning to non-numeric approaches based on logical reasoning. This study investigates a number of these approaches including Bayesian Probability, Mycin Certainty Factors, Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence, Fuzzy Set Theory, Possibility Theory and non monotonic logic. Each of these theories and their underlying formalisms are explored by means of examples. The discussion concentrates on a comparison of the different approaches, noting the type of uncertainty that they best represent."--Abstract.
Book Synopsis Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty by : Mark Machina
Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty written by Mark Machina and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-11-14 with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Book Synopsis Risk, Uncertainty and Profit by : Frank H. Knight
Download or read book Risk, Uncertainty and Profit written by Frank H. Knight and published by Cosimo, Inc.. This book was released on 2006-11-01 with total page 401 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.
Book Synopsis Uncertainty Modeling in Knowledge Engineering and Decision Making - Proceedings of the 10th International Flins Conference by : Cengiz Kahraman
Download or read book Uncertainty Modeling in Knowledge Engineering and Decision Making - Proceedings of the 10th International Flins Conference written by Cengiz Kahraman and published by World Scientific. This book was released on 2012 with total page 1373 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: FLINS, originally an acronym for Fuzzy Logic and Intelligent Technologies in Nuclear Science, is now extended to Computational Intelligence for applied research. The contributions to the 10th of FLINS conference cover state-of-the-art research, development, and technology for computational intelligence systems, both from the foundations and the applications points-of-view.
