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Lin Log Model For Forecasting International Tourism Income In Sri Lanka
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Book Synopsis Lin-Log Model for Forecasting International Tourism Income in Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe
Download or read book Lin-Log Model for Forecasting International Tourism Income in Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 19 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Income forecasting is an essential discipline in planning and other decision-making processes within any business. Fitting a suitable Lin-log model for forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka is the objective of the study. Monthly income data utilized from January 2009 to December 2013. Data obtained from annual reports of Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority. Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model with log transformation (Lin-Log Model) was tested on forecasting income at different lags. One way Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) technique was used for overall model testing and t-test was used for individual parameter testing. Residual plots and Anderson-Darling test for residuals and the Durbin-Watson test was used as a model validation criterion. Forecasting ability of the models was assessed by considering adjusted R2 and three measurements of errors. Box and whisker plot showed no outliers in the data set. Results revealed that Lin-log model was significant at lag 1, 2 and 3. MAPE's of the model in model fitting and verification were 14.86% and 16.63% respectively. Adjusted R2 of the model was 83.6 %. Residual plots and Anderson-Darling tests confirmed the normality of residuals. Also, residuals Vs fits confirmed the independence of residuals. Durbin-Watson statistic confirms the same. It was concluded that the Lin- log model is suitable for forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka. It is recommended to test Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models also on forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka.
Book Synopsis Forecasting International Tourism Income of Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe
Download or read book Forecasting International Tourism Income of Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 3 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Growth of the tourism industry in Sri Lanka shows the historical development in mainly in two ways. That is the growth of tourist arrivals and income.Tourism impact on the economy of Sri Lanka, which rely heavily on foreign exchange earnings. This has been a general interest of the government. Therefore government needs reliable forecasting to cope with uncertain situations and developing sound strategies to maintain the growth of tourism industry. This study was focused to identify suitable trend model for forecasting international tourism income of Sri Lanka. Monthly income data from 2009 to 2013 were obtained from statistical reports of 2012 and 2013 of Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA). Study concern the period of post war, which is after year 2009. Model fitting was done by utilizing data from January 2009 to April 2012 and data from May 2012 to May 2013 utilized for model verification. Four trend models were tested with log transformation including one linear and three non linear models. Residual plots and Anderson Darling tests for residuals were used as model validation criterion. Forecasting ability of the models was assessed by considering Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Square Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). Box and whisker plot showed no outliers in the data set. Results revealed that Quadratic Trend Model has least MAPE's in model fitting and verification: 0.90% and 1.12 % respectively. MAD and MSE also confirmed the smallest deviation compared with other trend models. Residual plots and Anderson Darling test confirmed the normality of residuals. Also residuals Vs fits confirmed the independence of residuals. It was concluded that the Quadratic Trend Model with log transformation is suitable for forecasting international tourism income in Sri Lanka. It is recommended to try other time series techniques namely decomposition techniques, Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models etc. to capture the seasonal behavior of the series.
Book Synopsis Hybrid Trend - ARIMA Model for Forecasting Employment in Tourism Industry in Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe
Download or read book Hybrid Trend - ARIMA Model for Forecasting Employment in Tourism Industry in Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 10 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Tourism is a fast-growing industry in Sri Lanka; as a result, the employment in the industry also shows a rapid growth. In light of that, the study was focused on identifying suitable forecasting techniques for total employment of tourism industry in Sri Lanka. Annual employment data for the period of 1970 to 2015 were obtained from the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority. The trend models; Linear, Quadratic, Growth Curve and Pearl Reed Logistic were tested. The Anderson-Darling test revealed the residuals of all four models were normally distributed, but Ljung-Box Q-test dies not confirm the independence of residuals. Therefore, the de-trended data were further analyzed; the stationary of the series was tested by Augmented Dickey-Fuller test. Then the Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was tested on each series. The ARIMA model was well fitted for de-trended series of Linear trend model and Growth Curve model. Hence, the residuals of two hybrid models; Linear trend-ARIMA and Growth Curve trend-ARIMA models were tested for model assumptions. It was concluded that both hybrid models; Linear trend-ARIMA and Growth Curve-ARIMA are suitable for forecasting total tourism employment.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Employment of Tourism Industry in Sri Lanka by : Udaya Konarasinghe
Download or read book Forecasting Employment of Tourism Industry in Sri Lanka written by Udaya Konarasinghe and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The tourism industry in Sri Lanka is growing over the recent past; increasing arrivals from various destinations. As a result, the employment in the industry also shows a rapid growth, but there were very few attempts in forecasting employment in the tourism industry in Sri Lanka. Hence, the objective of the study was to find out the suitable forecasting techniques for total employment of tourism industry in Sri Lanka. Annual employment data for the period of 1970 to 2015 were obtained from the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA). Karl Pearson's correlation used to test the correlation between total employment and tourist arrivals. Time series plots used for pattern identification. Simple Regression Model (SRM) and Auto Distributed Lag Model (ADLM) tested for forecasting. The Anderson-Darling test used to test the normality of data and residuals. Ljung-Box Q test, Auto-Correlation Functions (ACF) and Durbin-Watson (DW) test used to test the independence of residuals. Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test used to test the stationary of the series. Forecasting ability of the models was assessed by both relative and absolute measurements of errors. The SRM was not successful, but the ADLM satisfied the validation criterion. Both relative and absolute measurements of ADLM were very low. Hence, the ADLM is recommended for forecasting total employment of tourism industry in Sri Lanka. The results of this study will be facilitating for decision making and various strategy development related to overcome the surplus and shortfall of employment. It will be useful for workforce planning in both public and the private sector in the tourism industry. It is useful for developing various training programs such as workshops, academic and professional courses related to hospitality management. Further, the finding of the study can be used to assess the economic benefits to the host community in various tourism areas in Sri Lanka.
Book Synopsis Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting by : Haiyan Song
Download or read book Tourism Demand Modelling and Forecasting written by Haiyan Song and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2000 with total page 183 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A textbook for a graduate or final-year undergraduate course in tourism studies that might also find interest among researchers and practitioners who want to apply recent developments in econometric modeling and forecasting to tourism demand analysis. Song and Witt (both management in the service sector, U. of Surrey, Britain) begin with the fundamentals of tourism demand analysis, and the problems of traditional modeling and forecasting. Then they explore the general- to-specific approach, the time-varying parameter model, and the panel- data approach. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR
Book Synopsis An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka by : Chandranath Amarasekara
Download or read book An Open Economy Quarterly Projection Model for Sri Lanka written by Chandranath Amarasekara and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-06-25 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study documents a semi-structural model developed for Sri Lanka. This model, extended with a fiscal sector block, is expected to serve as a core forecasting model in the process of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s move towards flexible inflation targeting. The model includes a forward-looking endogenous interest rate and foreign exchange rate policy rules allowing for flexible change in policy behavior. It is a gap model that allows for simultaneous identification of business cycle position and long-term equilibrium. The model was first calibrated and then its data-fit was improved using Bayesian estimation technique with relatively tight priors.
Book Synopsis An Assessment of the Impacts of Tourism in Sri Lanka by : Sriyantha Fernando
Download or read book An Assessment of the Impacts of Tourism in Sri Lanka written by Sriyantha Fernando and published by . This book was released on 2017-09-12 with total page 70 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2012 in the subject Tourism, Griffith University, course: PhD, language: English, abstract: After the end of nearly three decades of civil war in 2009, Sri Lanka is experiencing a tourism boom with a record level of international tourist arrivals. The Sri Lankan government has now identified tourism as a main component in its post-war development strategy. Despite this new policy enthusiasm there is dearth of research on tourism in Sri Lanka. The purpose of this study, therefore, is to contribute to the literature on tourism in Sri Lanka in a number of ways. First, it provides a systematic historical narrative on Sri Lankan tourism and explains how Sri Lanka missed opportunities in the past. Second, it develops a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model focusing on tourism and constructs a database with an emphasis on tourism. Third, it examines the economy-wide effects of the post-war tourism boom in Sri Lanka.
Book Synopsis Seasonality in Tourism by : Tom Baum
Download or read book Seasonality in Tourism written by Tom Baum and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2001-12-07 with total page 202 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seasonal variation in demand is a reality for most tourism destinations. This work provides a balanced overview of the evidence and issues relating to tourism seasonality using European, North American and Pacific Rim cases and research evidence.
Book Synopsis In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends’ Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries by : Mr.Futoshi Narita
Download or read book In Search of Information: Use of Google Trends’ Data to Narrow Information Gaps for Low-income Developing Countries written by Mr.Futoshi Narita and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2018-12-14 with total page 51 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Timely data availability is a long-standing challenge in policy-making and analysis for low-income developing countries. This paper explores the use of Google Trends’ data to narrow such information gaps and finds that online search frequencies about a country significantly correlate with macroeconomic variables (e.g., real GDP, inflation, capital flows), conditional on other covariates. The correlation with real GDP is stronger than that of nighttime lights, whereas the opposite is found for emerging market economies. The search frequencies also improve out-of-sample forecasting performance albeit slightly, demonstrating their potential to facilitate timely assessments of economic conditions in low-income developing countries.
Book Synopsis Measuring and Mending Monetary Policy Effectiveness Under Capital Account Restrictions by : Mr.Robert Blotevogel
Download or read book Measuring and Mending Monetary Policy Effectiveness Under Capital Account Restrictions written by Mr.Robert Blotevogel and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-03-27 with total page 35 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I propose a new approach to identifying exogenous monetary policy shocks in low-income countries with capital account restrictions. In the case of Mauritania, a domestic repatriation requirement is the key institutional characteristic that allows me to establish exogeneity. Unlike in advanced countries, I find no evidence for a statistically significant impact of exogenous monetary policy shocks on bank lending. Using a unique bank-level dataset on monthly balance sheets of six Mauritanian banks over the period 2006–11, I estimate structural vector autoregressions and two-stage least square panel models to demonstrate the ineffectiveness of monetary policy. Finally, I discuss how a reduction in banks’ loan concentration ratios and improvements in the liquidity management framework could make monetary stimuli more effective.
Book Synopsis The Routledge Handbook of Tourism in Asia by : C. Michael Hall
Download or read book The Routledge Handbook of Tourism in Asia written by C. Michael Hall and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2016-09-13 with total page 488 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Asia is regarded as the fastest growing area for international and domestic tourism in the world today and over the next 20 years. Given the economic, social and environmental importance of tourism in the region, there is a need for a comprehensive and readable overview of the critical debates and controversies in tourism in the region and the major factors that are affecting tourism development both now and in the foreseeable future. This Handbook provides a contemporary survey of the region and its continued growth and development as a key destination and generator of tourism, which is marked by a high proportion of intra-regional travel. The book is divided into five sections. This first section provides an introduction to the region and context to the nationally focused chapters. The next three sections are then broadly based on the three UNWTO Asian regions: South-East Asia, South and Central Asia, and East and North-East Asia, providing readers with a valuable snapshot of tourism at various scales, and from various approaches and positions. The concluding section considers future prospects for tourism in Asia. The handbook is interdisciplinary in coverage and is also international in scope through its authorship and content. It presents a range of perspectives and understanding of the processes and forces that are shaping tourism in this fascinating and dynamic region that is one of the focal points of global tourism. This is essential reading for students, researchers and academics interested in tourism in the growth region of Asia now and in the future.
Book Synopsis World Development Report 2009 by : World Bank
Download or read book World Development Report 2009 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2008-11-04 with total page 410 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Rising densities of human settlements, migration and transport to reduce distances to market, and specialization and trade facilitated by fewer international divisions are central to economic development. The transformations along these three dimensions density, distance, and division are most noticeable in North America, Western Europe, and Japan, but countries in Asia and Eastern Europe are changing in ways similar in scope and speed. 'World Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography' concludes that these spatial transformations are essential, and should be encouraged. The conclusion is not without controversy. Slum-dwellers now number a billion, but the rush to cities continues. Globalization is believed to benefit many, but not the billion people living in lagging areas of developing nations. High poverty and mortality persist among the world's 'bottom billion', while others grow wealthier and live longer lives. Concern for these three billion often comes with the prescription that growth must be made spatially balanced. The WDR has a different message: economic growth is seldom balanced, and efforts to spread it out prematurely will jeopardize progress. The Report: documents how production becomes more concentrated spatially as economies grow. proposes economic integration as the principle for promoting successful spatial transformations. revisits the debates on urbanization, territorial development, and regional integration and shows how today's developers can reshape economic geography.
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects 2007 by : World Bank
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects 2007 written by World Bank and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2006 with total page 216 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Over the next 25 years developing countries will move to center stage in the global economy. Global Economic Prospects 2007 analyzes the opportunities - and stresses - this will create. While rich and poor countries alike stand to benefit, the integration process will make more acute stresses already apparent today - in income inequality, in labor markets, and in the environment. Over the next 25 years, rapid technological progress, burgeoning trade in goods and services, and integration of financial markets create the opportunity for faster long-term growth. However, some regions, notably Africa, are at risk of being left behind. The coming globalization will also see intensified stresses on the "global commons." Addressing global warming, preserving marine fisheries, and containing infectious diseases will require effective multilateral collaboration to ensure that economic growth and poverty reduction proceed without causing irreparable harm to future generations."
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Global Economic Prospects, January 2022 by : The World Bank
Download or read book Global Economic Prospects, January 2022 written by The World Bank and published by . This book was released on 2022-03-04 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global Economic Prospects, January 2022
Book Synopsis Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World by : Ms.Manuela Goretti
Download or read book Tourism in the Post-Pandemic World written by Ms.Manuela Goretti and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-19 with total page 115 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This departmental paper analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on tourism in the Asia Pacific region, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Many tourism dependent economies in these regions, including small states in the Pacific and the Caribbean, entered the pandemic with limited fiscal space, inadequate external buffers, and foreign exchange revenues extremely concentrated in tourism. The empirical analysis leverages on an augmented gravity model to draw lessons from past epidemics and finds that the impact of infectious diseases on tourism flows is much greater in developing countries than in advanced economies.
Author :International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher :International Monetary Fund ISBN 13 :1484348834 Total Pages :657 pages Book Rating :4.4/5 (843 download)
Book Synopsis World Economic Outlook, October 2013 by : International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Download or read book World Economic Outlook, October 2013 written by International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-08 with total page 657 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global growth is in low gear, and the drivers of activity are changing. These dynamics raise new policy challenges. Advanced economies are growing again but must continue financial sector repair, pursue fiscal consolidation, and spur job growth. Emerging market economies face the dual challenges of slowing growth and tighter global financial conditions. This issue of the World Economic Outlook examines the potential spillovers from these transitions and the appropriate policy responses. Chapter 3 explores how output comovements are influenced by policy and financial shocks, growth surprises, and other linkages. Chapter 4 assesses why certain emerging market economies were able to avoid the classical boom-and-bust cycle in the face of volatile capital flows during the global financial crisis.
