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Limits To Speculation And Nonlinearity In Deviations From Uncovered Interest Parity
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Book Synopsis Limits to Speculation and Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity by : Lucio Sarno
Download or read book Limits to Speculation and Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity written by Lucio Sarno and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 41 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We examine empirically the hypothesis that limits to speculation in the foreign exchange market may induce nonlinearities in the spot-forward relationship and in the process driving the deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition. Our empirical results provide strong evidence of nonlinearities which are consistent with a model of deviations from UIP with two extreme regimes: one regime with persistent but tiny deviations from UIP, and another regime where UIP holds. In a battery of Monte Carlo experiments, we show that if the true data generating process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional spot-forward regressions would generate the well known forward bias puzzle and the predictability of foreign exchange excess returns documented in the literature. In turn, these findings have implications for the economic significance of the statistical rejection of foreign exchange market efficiency.
Book Synopsis Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle by : Lucio Sarno
Download or read book Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity: An Explanation of the Forward Bias Puzzle written by Lucio Sarno and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2006-05 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide empirical evidence that deviations from uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) display significant nonlinearities, consistent with theories based on transaction costs or limits to speculation. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative of major market inefficiencies than previously thought. Monte Carlo experiments allow us to reconcile these results with the large empirical literature on the forward bias puzzle since we show that, if the true process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional spot-forward regressions would generate the anomalies documented in previous research.
Book Synopsis The Forward Bias Puzzle and Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity by : Giorgio Valente
Download or read book The Forward Bias Puzzle and Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity written by Giorgio Valente and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We provide empirical evidence that deviations from the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition display significant nonlinearities, which have a natural interpretation consistent with several recent theories based on transactions costs or limits to speculation in the foreign exchange market. This evidence suggests that the forward bias documented in the literature may be less indicative of major inefficiencies in the foreign exchange market than previously thought. Further, Monte Carlo experiments allow us to reconcile our results with the large empirical literature on the forward bias puzzle since we show that, if the true data generating process of UIP deviations were of the nonlinear form we consider, estimation of conventional linear spot-forward regressions would generate the well known anomalies documented in much previous research.
Book Synopsis Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Parity by : Lucio Sarno
Download or read book Nonlinearity in Deviations from Uncovered Parity written by Lucio Sarno and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 42 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Three Parity Conditions and Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity by : Anders Vik
Download or read book Three Parity Conditions and Deviations from Uncovered Interest Parity written by Anders Vik and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 49 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Interconnected Deviations from Covered Interest Parity by : Daniel Felix Ahelegbey
Download or read book Interconnected Deviations from Covered Interest Parity written by Daniel Felix Ahelegbey and published by . This book was released on 2020 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis A Research Examination of Covered-Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Purchase Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis: Applications in MATLAB, RATS and EVIEWS by : Eleftherios Giovanis
Download or read book A Research Examination of Covered-Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and the Purchase Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis: Applications in MATLAB, RATS and EVIEWS written by Eleftherios Giovanis and published by GRIN Verlag. This book was released on 2010-02-17 with total page 114 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Seminar paper from the year 2008 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 95.00%, , language: English, abstract: This project examines in the first part the covered and uncovered interest parity between US dollar and Swiss Franc. We present simple summary statistics, unit root tests, deviations from covered interest parity, regression analysis, threshold autoregression and exponential transition autoregression. Then we present the uncovered interest parity and, as in the case of covered interest parity, we apply some tests to examine if it’s valid. We apply Johansen cointegration tests between spot and forward rates, but also between forward premia and interest rates differentials and we test if there is a cointegration equation and we estimate the vector error correction model. After this procedure we present the impulse responses. Next we test if there is a threshold cointegration relation between the above variables. Finally in the last section we apply a dynamic OLS (DOLS) estimation with Newey-West HAC standard errors. In the second part the purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis is examined with a similar methodology followed, where additionally we present a long span study, unit root tests allowing for structural breaks in data, panel unit root tests as also Markov switching regime autoregressive model is examined in the category of the non linear models
Book Synopsis Exchange Rate Economics by : Norman C. Miller
Download or read book Exchange Rate Economics written by Norman C. Miller and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2014-09-26 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) puzzle has remained a moot point since it first circulated economic discourse in 1984 and, despite a number of attempts at a solution, the UIP puzzle and other anomalies in Exchange Rate Economics continue to perplex
Book Synopsis Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics by : Terence C. Mills
Download or read book Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics written by Terence C. Mills and published by Palgrave Handbook of Econometr. This book was released on 2009-06-25 with total page 1432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Palgrave Handbooks of Econometrics comprises 'landmark' essays by the world's leading scholars and provides authoritative guidance in key areas of econometrics. With definitive contributions on the subject, the Handbook is an essential source for reference for professional econometricians, economists, researchers and students. Following the successful Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Volume 1, this second volume brings together leading academics working in econometrics today and explores applied econometrics. Volume 2 contains contributions on subjects including growth/development econometrics, computing, microeconomics, macroeconomics, finance, spatial and urban economics and international economics.
Book Synopsis Uncovered Interest Parity by : Mr.Peter Isard
Download or read book Uncovered Interest Parity written by Mr.Peter Isard and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1991-05 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This note provides an overview of the uncovered interest parity assumption. It traces the history of the interest parity concept, summarizes evidence on the empirical validity of uncovered interest parity, and discusses the implications for macroeconomic analysis. The uncovered interest parity assumption has been an important building block in multiperiod and continuous time models of open economies, and although its validity is strongly challenged by the empirical evidence, its retention in macroeconomic models is supported on pragmatic grounds, at least for the time being, by the lack of much empirical support for existing models of the exchange risk premium.
Book Synopsis Journal of International Economics by :
Download or read book Journal of International Economics written by and published by . This book was released on 1990 with total page 862 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :Thomas H. McCurdy Publisher :Kingston, Ont. : Institute for Economic Research, Queen's University ISBN 13 : Total Pages :44 pages Book Rating :4.:/5 (318 download)
Book Synopsis A Comparison of Risk-premium Forecasts Implied by Parametric Versus Nonparametric Conditional Mean Estimators by : Thomas H. McCurdy
Download or read book A Comparison of Risk-premium Forecasts Implied by Parametric Versus Nonparametric Conditional Mean Estimators written by Thomas H. McCurdy and published by Kingston, Ont. : Institute for Economic Research, Queen's University. This book was released on 1991 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework by : Romain Lafarguette
Download or read book Foreign Exchange Intervention Rules for Central Banks: A Risk-based Framework written by Romain Lafarguette and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2021-02-12 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents a rule for foreign exchange interventions (FXI), designed to preserve financial stability in floating exchange rate arrangements. The FXI rule addresses a market failure: the absence of hedging solution for tail exchange rate risk in the market (i.e. high volatility). Market impairment or overshoot of exchange rate between two equilibria could generate high volatility and threaten financial stability due to unhedged exposure to exchange rate risk in the economy. The rule uses the concept of Value at Risk (VaR) to define FXI triggers. While it provides to the market a hedge against tail risk, the rule allows the exchange rate to smoothly adjust to new equilibria. In addition, the rule is budget neutral over the medium term, encourages a prudent risk management in the market, and is more resilient to speculative attacks than other rules, such as fixed-volatility rules. The empirical methodology is backtested on Banco Mexico’s FXIs data between 2008 and 2016.
Book Synopsis Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises by : Ms.Inci Ötker
Download or read book Speculative Attacks and Currency Crises written by Ms.Inci Ötker and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1995-11-01 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period.
Book Synopsis TURKISH ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ECONOMICS ICE-TEA 2018 by : Ercan Uygur
Download or read book TURKISH ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON ECONOMICS ICE-TEA 2018 written by Ercan Uygur and published by Türkiye Ekonomi Kurumu. This book was released on 2018-12-31 with total page 2118 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis by : Laurent Ferrara
Download or read book International Macroeconomics in the Wake of the Global Financial Crisis written by Laurent Ferrara and published by Springer. This book was released on 2018-06-13 with total page 300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book collects selected articles addressing several currently debated issues in the field of international macroeconomics. They focus on the role of the central banks in the debate on how to come to terms with the long-term decline in productivity growth, insufficient aggregate demand, high economic uncertainty and growing inequalities following the global financial crisis. Central banks are of considerable importance in this debate since understanding the sluggishness of the recovery process as well as its implications for the natural interest rate are key to assessing output gaps and the monetary policy stance. The authors argue that a more dynamic domestic and external aggregate demand helps to raise the inflation rate, easing the constraint deriving from the zero lower bound and allowing monetary policy to depart from its current ultra-accommodative position. Beyond macroeconomic factors, the book also discusses a supportive financial environment as a precondition for the rebound of global economic activity, stressing that understanding capital flows is a prerequisite for economic-policy decisions.
Book Synopsis Currency and International Equity Trading Strategies and the Behavior of Exchange Rates by : Sanders S. Chang
Download or read book Currency and International Equity Trading Strategies and the Behavior of Exchange Rates written by Sanders S. Chang and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 342 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: