Limits To Prediction

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Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309083478
Total Pages : 130 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (9 download)

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Book Synopsis Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems by : National Research Council

Download or read book Report of a Workshop on Predictability and Limits-To-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2002-05-01 with total page 130 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The Committee on Hydrologic Science (COHS) of the National Research Council (NRC) is engaged in studying the priorities and future strategies for hydrologic science. In order to involve a broad community representation, COHS is organizing workshops on priority topics in hydrologic science. These efforts will culminate in reports from the NRC on the individual workshops as well as a synthesis report on strategic directions in hydrologic science. The first workshop-Predictability and Limits-to-Prediction in Hydrologic Systems-was held at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, September 21-22, 2000. Fourteen technical presentations covered basic research and understanding, model formulations and behavior, observing strategies, and transition to operational predictions.

The Limits to Growth

Author : Donella H. Meadows
Publisher : Universe Pub
ISBN 13 : 9780876632222
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (322 download)

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Book Synopsis The Limits to Growth by : Donella H. Meadows

Download or read book The Limits to Growth written by Donella H. Meadows and published by Universe Pub. This book was released on 1972 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Examines the factors which limit human economic and population growth and outlines the steps necessary for achieving a balance between population and production. Bibliogs

Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics

Author : Wenceslao J. Gonzalez
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319088858
Total Pages : 375 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics by : Wenceslao J. Gonzalez

Download or read book Philosophico-Methodological Analysis of Prediction and its Role in Economics written by Wenceslao J. Gonzalez and published by Springer. This book was released on 2015-02-19 with total page 375 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book develops a philosophico-methodological analysis of prediction and its role in economics. Prediction plays a key role in economics in various ways. It can be seen as a basic science, as an applied science and in the application of this science. First, it is used by economic theory in order to test the available knowledge. In this regard, prediction has been presented as the scientific test for economics as a science. Second, prediction provides a content regarding the possible future that can be used for prescription in applied economics. Thus, it can be used as a guide for economic policy, i.e., as knowledge concerning the future to be employed for the resolution of specific problems. Third, prediction also has a role in the application of this science in the public arena. This is through the decision-making of the agents — individuals or organizations — in quite different settings, both in the realm of microeconomics and macroeconomics. Within this context, the research is organized in five parts, which discuss relevant aspects of the role of prediction in economics: I) The problem of prediction as a test for a science; II) The general orientation in methodology of science and the problem of prediction as a scientific test; III) The methodological framework of social sciences and economics: Incidence for prediction as a test; IV) Epistemology and methodology of economic prediction: Rationality and empirical approaches and V) Methodological aspects of economic prediction: From description to prescription. Thus, the book is of interest for philosophers and economists as well as policy-makers seeking to ascertain the roots of their performance. The style used lends itself to a wide audience.

Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability

Author : National Research Council
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 030915183X
Total Pages : 192 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability by : National Research Council

Download or read book Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability written by National Research Council and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2010-10-08 with total page 192 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: More accurate forecasts of climate conditions over time periods of weeks to a few years could help people plan agricultural activities, mitigate drought, and manage energy resources, amongst other activities; however, current forecast systems have limited ability on these time- scales. Models for such climate forecasts must take into account complex interactions among the ocean, atmosphere, and land surface. Such processes can be difficult to represent realistically. To improve the quality of forecasts, this book makes recommendations about the development of the tools used in forecasting and about specific research goals for improving understanding of sources of predictability. To improve the accessibility of these forecasts to decision-makers and researchers, this book also suggests best practices to improve how forecasts are made and disseminated.

Pragmatic Idealism and Scientific Prediction

Author : Amanda Guillán
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319630431
Total Pages : 336 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (196 download)

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Book Synopsis Pragmatic Idealism and Scientific Prediction by : Amanda Guillán

Download or read book Pragmatic Idealism and Scientific Prediction written by Amanda Guillán and published by Springer. This book was released on 2017-08-30 with total page 336 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This monograph analyzes Nicholas Rescher’s system of pragmatic idealism. It also looks at his approach to prediction in science. Coverage highlights a prominent contribution to a central topic in the philosophy and methodology of science. The author offers a full characterization of Rescher’s system of philosophy. She presents readers with a comprehensive philosophico-methodological analysis of this important work. Her research takes into account different thematic realms: semantic, logical, epistemological, methodological, ontological, axiological, and ethical. The book features three, thematic-parts: I) General Coordinates, Semantic Features and Logical Components of Scientific Prediction; II) Predictive Knowledge and Predictive Processes in Rescher’s Methodological Pragmatism; and III) From Reality to Values: Ontological Features, Axiological Elements, and Ethical Aspects of Scientific Prediction. This insightful analysis offers a critical reconstruction of Rescher’s philosophy. The system he created is often characterized as pragmatic idealism that is open to some realist elements. He is a prominent representative of contemporary pragmatism who has made a great deal of contributions to the study of this topic. This area is crucial for science and it has been little considered in the philosophy of science.

Prediction

Author : Daniel R. Sarewitz
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 434 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Prediction by : Daniel R. Sarewitz

Download or read book Prediction written by Daniel R. Sarewitz and published by . This book was released on 2000-04 with total page 434 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Based upon ten case studies, Prediction explores how science-based predictions guide policy making and what this means in terms of global warming, biogenetically modifying organisms and polluting the environment with chemicals.

Statistical Intervals

Author : William Q. Meeker
Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118594959
Total Pages : 648 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (185 download)

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Book Synopsis Statistical Intervals by : William Q. Meeker

Download or read book Statistical Intervals written by William Q. Meeker and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2017-03-09 with total page 648 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Describes statistical intervals to quantify sampling uncertainty,focusing on key application needs and recently developed methodology in an easy-to-apply format Statistical intervals provide invaluable tools for quantifying sampling uncertainty. The widely hailed first edition, published in 1991, described the use and construction of the most important statistical intervals. Particular emphasis was given to intervals—such as prediction intervals, tolerance intervals and confidence intervals on distribution quantiles—frequently needed in practice, but often neglected in introductory courses. Vastly improved computer capabilities over the past 25 years have resulted in an explosion of the tools readily available to analysts. This second edition—more than double the size of the first—adds these new methods in an easy-to-apply format. In addition to extensive updating of the original chapters, the second edition includes new chapters on: Likelihood-based statistical intervals Nonparametric bootstrap intervals Parametric bootstrap and other simulation-based intervals An introduction to Bayesian intervals Bayesian intervals for the popular binomial, Poisson and normal distributions Statistical intervals for Bayesian hierarchical models Advanced case studies, further illustrating the use of the newly described methods New technical appendices provide justification of the methods and pathways to extensions and further applications. A webpage directs readers to current readily accessible computer software and other useful information. Statistical Intervals: A Guide for Practitioners and Researchers, Second Edition is an up-to-date working guide and reference for all who analyze data, allowing them to quantify the uncertainty in their results using statistical intervals.

Prediction, Learning, and Games

Author : Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 113945482X
Total Pages : 4 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (394 download)

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Book Synopsis Prediction, Learning, and Games by : Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi

Download or read book Prediction, Learning, and Games written by Nicolo Cesa-Bianchi and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2006-03-13 with total page 4 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This important text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers a comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections.

Limits to Prediction

Author : Bruce McKern
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 182 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Limits to Prediction by : Bruce McKern

Download or read book Limits to Prediction written by Bruce McKern and published by . This book was released on 1985 with total page 182 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Next Generation Earth System Prediction

Author : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher : National Academies Press
ISBN 13 : 0309388805
Total Pages : 351 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (93 download)

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Book Synopsis Next Generation Earth System Prediction by : National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Download or read book Next Generation Earth System Prediction written by National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine and published by National Academies Press. This book was released on 2016-08-22 with total page 351 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: As the nation's economic activities, security concerns, and stewardship of natural resources become increasingly complex and globally interrelated, they become ever more sensitive to adverse impacts from weather, climate, and other natural phenomena. For several decades, forecasts with lead times of a few days for weather and other environmental phenomena have yielded valuable information to improve decision-making across all sectors of society. Developing the capability to forecast environmental conditions and disruptive events several weeks and months in advance could dramatically increase the value and benefit of environmental predictions, saving lives, protecting property, increasing economic vitality, protecting the environment, and informing policy choices. Over the past decade, the ability to forecast weather and climate conditions on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescales, i.e., two to fifty-two weeks in advance, has improved substantially. Although significant progress has been made, much work remains to make S2S predictions skillful enough, as well as optimally tailored and communicated, to enable widespread use. Next Generation Earth System Predictions presents a ten-year U.S. research agenda that increases the nation's S2S research and modeling capability, advances S2S forecasting, and aids in decision making at medium and extended lead times.

Prediction Limits and Two-Sample Problems with Complete Or Censored Weibull Data

Author : Max Engelhardt
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 5 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (227 download)

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Book Synopsis Prediction Limits and Two-Sample Problems with Complete Or Censored Weibull Data by : Max Engelhardt

Download or read book Prediction Limits and Two-Sample Problems with Complete Or Censored Weibull Data written by Max Engelhardt and published by . This book was released on 1977 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Algorithmic Learning in a Random World

Author : Vladimir Vovk
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 9780387001524
Total Pages : 344 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (15 download)

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Book Synopsis Algorithmic Learning in a Random World by : Vladimir Vovk

Download or read book Algorithmic Learning in a Random World written by Vladimir Vovk and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2005-03-22 with total page 344 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Algorithmic Learning in a Random World describes recent theoretical and experimental developments in building computable approximations to Kolmogorov's algorithmic notion of randomness. Based on these approximations, a new set of machine learning algorithms have been developed that can be used to make predictions and to estimate their confidence and credibility in high-dimensional spaces under the usual assumption that the data are independent and identically distributed (assumption of randomness). Another aim of this unique monograph is to outline some limits of predictions: The approach based on algorithmic theory of randomness allows for the proof of impossibility of prediction in certain situations. The book describes how several important machine learning problems, such as density estimation in high-dimensional spaces, cannot be solved if the only assumption is randomness.

Forecasting: principles and practice

Author : Rob J Hyndman
Publisher : OTexts
ISBN 13 : 0987507117
Total Pages : 380 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (875 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting: principles and practice by : Rob J Hyndman

Download or read book Forecasting: principles and practice written by Rob J Hyndman and published by OTexts. This book was released on 2018-05-08 with total page 380 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Forecasting is required in many situations. Stocking an inventory may require forecasts of demand months in advance. Telecommunication routing requires traffic forecasts a few minutes ahead. Whatever the circumstances or time horizons involved, forecasting is an important aid in effective and efficient planning. This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.

Possibilities and limits of earthquake prediction using of animals

Author : Eva Dust
Publisher : epubli
ISBN 13 : 3745047168
Total Pages : 38 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (45 download)

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Book Synopsis Possibilities and limits of earthquake prediction using of animals by : Eva Dust

Download or read book Possibilities and limits of earthquake prediction using of animals written by Eva Dust and published by epubli. This book was released on 2017-11-14 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: For centuries or millennia, people have repeatedly reported that animals behaved conspicuously before a major earthquake. This phenomenon is seriously investigated in this book and the possibilities and limits of this possible research are shown. Founded together and researched from the sparse literature on this subject, the author here on different levels with the existing scientific facts and theoretical further possible research on this subject disputes and gives much inspiration for the future of this research

On Prediction Limits for Samples from a Weibull Or Extreme-Value Distribution

Author : Max Engelhardt
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 5 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (227 download)

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Book Synopsis On Prediction Limits for Samples from a Weibull Or Extreme-Value Distribution by : Max Engelhardt

Download or read book On Prediction Limits for Samples from a Weibull Or Extreme-Value Distribution written by Max Engelhardt and published by . This book was released on 1981 with total page 5 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Prediction or Prophecy?

Author : Gregor Betz
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3835090534
Total Pages : 287 pages
Book Rating : 4.8/5 (35 download)

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Book Synopsis Prediction or Prophecy? by : Gregor Betz

Download or read book Prediction or Prophecy? written by Gregor Betz and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2007-10-06 with total page 287 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Gregor Betz explores the following questions: Where are the limits of economics, in particular the limits of economic foreknowledge? Are macroeconomic forecasts credible predictions or mere prophecies and what would this imply for the way economic policy decisions are taken? Is rational economic decision making possible without forecasting at all?

Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction

Author : Haraldur Olafsson
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128157100
Total Pages : 366 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (281 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction by : Haraldur Olafsson

Download or read book Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction written by Haraldur Olafsson and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2020-11-25 with total page 366 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Uncertainties in Numerical Weather Prediction is a comprehensive work on the most current understandings of uncertainties and predictability in numerical simulations of the atmosphere. It provides general knowledge on all aspects of uncertainties in the weather prediction models in a single, easy to use reference. The book illustrates particular uncertainties in observations and data assimilation, as well as the errors associated with numerical integration methods. Stochastic methods in parameterization of subgrid processes are also assessed, as are uncertainties associated with surface-atmosphere exchange, orographic flows and processes in the atmospheric boundary layer. Through a better understanding of the uncertainties to watch for, readers will be able to produce more precise and accurate forecasts. This is an essential work for anyone who wants to improve the accuracy of weather and climate forecasting and interested parties developing tools to enhance the quality of such forecasts. Provides a comprehensive overview of the state of numerical weather prediction at spatial scales, from hundreds of meters, to thousands of kilometers Focuses on short-term 1-15 day atmospheric predictions, with some coverage appropriate for longer-term forecasts Includes references to climate prediction models to allow applications of these techniques for climate simulations