Limitations of contract farming as a pro-poor strategy: The case of maize outgrower schemes in upper West Ghana

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 54 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Limitations of contract farming as a pro-poor strategy: The case of maize outgrower schemes in upper West Ghana by : Ragasa, Catherine

Download or read book Limitations of contract farming as a pro-poor strategy: The case of maize outgrower schemes in upper West Ghana written by Ragasa, Catherine and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2017-03-30 with total page 54 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The focus in this paper is on two relatively large maize-based contract farming (CF) schemes with fixed input packages (Masara and Akate) and a number of smaller and more flexible CF schemes in a remote region in Ghana (Upper West). Results show that these schemes led to improved technology adoption and yield increases. In addition, a subset of maize farmers with high yield improvements due to CF participation had high gross margins. However, on average, yields were not high enough to compensate for higher input requirements and cost of capital. On average, households harvest 29–30 bags (100 kg each), or 2.9–3.0 metric tons, of maize per hectare, and the required repayment for fertilizer, seed, herbicide, and materials provided under the average CF scheme is 21–25 bags (50 kg each) per acre, or 2.6–3.0 tons per hectare, which leaves almost none for home consumption or for sale. Despite higher yields, the costs to produce 1 ton of maize under CF schemes remain high on average—higher than on maize farms without CF schemes, more than twice that of several countries in Africa, and more than seven times higher than that of major maize-exporting countries (the United States, Brazil, and Argentina). Sustainability of these CF schemes will depend on, from the firms’ perspective, minimizing the costs to run and monitor them, and from the farmers’ perspective, developing and promoting much-improved varieties and technologies that may lead to a jump in yields and gross margins to compensate for the high cost of credit.

Nutrition incentives in dairy contract farming in northern Senegal

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Nutrition incentives in dairy contract farming in northern Senegal by : Bernard, Tanguy

Download or read book Nutrition incentives in dairy contract farming in northern Senegal written by Bernard, Tanguy and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2017-04-07 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Health-related incentives to reward effort or commitment are commonplace in many professional contracts throughout the world. Typically absent from small-scale agriculture in poor countries, such incentives may help overcome both health issues for remote rural families and supply issues for firms. Using a randomized control design, we investigate the impact of adding a micronutrient-fortified product in contracts between a Senegalese dairy processing factory and its seminomadic milk suppliers. Findings show significant increases in frequency of delivery but only limited impacts on total milk delivered. These impacts are time sensitive and limited mostly to households where women are more in control of milk contracts.

Beyond the passbook relationship: Assessing preferences for contracts among cotton and tea farmers and companies in Malawi

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Beyond the passbook relationship: Assessing preferences for contracts among cotton and tea farmers and companies in Malawi by : Ochieng, Dennis O.

Download or read book Beyond the passbook relationship: Assessing preferences for contracts among cotton and tea farmers and companies in Malawi written by Ochieng, Dennis O. and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While contract farming provides opportunities to link smallholder farmers to markets, its sustainability depends on how the interests of both farmers and buyers are addressed. Previous studies analyze farmers’ preferences for contracts, but buyers’ preferences for contracts and design attributes are hardly examined. This Working Paper contributes to the knowledge gap by analyzing farmers’ and buyers’ preferences for contracts and design attributes, and the similarities and differences in preferences using a discrete choice experiment with 505 cotton farmers and 512 tea farmers in southern Malawi. Using a mixed logit model, the author examines farmers’ and buyers’ preferences and estimate farmers’ willingness to pay for improvement of contract attributes. Results show that both farmers and buyers have positive preferences for contracts in general and for many design attributes. The author however observes clear differences in preference for payment mode where farmers prefer spot payments while buyers prefer delayed payments. Further, while both parties prefer better quality products, there are no standardized grading systems for the two crops in Malawi. Consequently, buyers are skeptical of farmers’ ability to produce quality products while farmers are distrustful of buyers’ grading systems. Even though buyers are open to offer contracts that provide inputs or insurance to farmers, there are no information sharing platforms to guide in contracting farmers thus exposing buyers to risks of contract default. The author also finds that farmers prefer contracts that address their social needs as seen in their choice of contracts with funeral expenses insurance. Such attributes could strengthen the relationship between farmers and buying companies. Sustainable contract schemes require designing contracts that are acceptable to both farmers and buyers by balancing risks between the parties. Successful contract relationships have to build business relationships and foster mutual trust by developing standardized grading systems and information sharing platforms for buyers and farmers to guide selection into the schemes. To minimize side-selling, companies can advance cash credit to liquidity constrained farmers, but this must be accompanied by stronger contract enforcement mechanisms.

Agrarian Reform and Farmer Resistance in Punjab

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Publisher : Taylor & Francis
ISBN 13 : 1000816303
Total Pages : 315 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Agrarian Reform and Farmer Resistance in Punjab by : Shinder Singh Thandi

Download or read book Agrarian Reform and Farmer Resistance in Punjab written by Shinder Singh Thandi and published by Taylor & Francis. This book was released on 2022-12-15 with total page 315 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book examines different dimensions of farmer agitations in Punjab, India. It situates the 2020–2021 farmer resistance movement within the wider context of India’s post-independent development trajectory and provides a thorough analysis of various aspects of the farmers’ movement in India. The volume contextualizes Punjab’s history of farmer resistance, organization and mobilization strategies, the globalization of the movement, ways of both sustaining the movement and building resilience. While providing a critical understanding of the three farm laws introduced in India in 2020, the book looks at how they may impact farm operations and livelihoods in the post-Green Revolution period and evaluates strategies of inclusive mobilization for gathering support and sustaining the movement both within India and abroad, with special focus on the role of the Sikh diaspora. Essays in this volume also discuss the participation of women in the struggle and how their experience has the potential to transform gender relations both at home and in the public sphere. Integrated, comprehensive and concisely written by well-known experts, this book will be of interest to those involved with Punjab’s social, political and economic history, and students and researchers of food and agriculture in developing countries, peasant and social movements, Indian federalism and role of diasporas as non-state actors.

Chinese investment in Ghana’s manufacturing sector

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 32 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Chinese investment in Ghana’s manufacturing sector by : Tang, Xiaoyang

Download or read book Chinese investment in Ghana’s manufacturing sector written by Tang, Xiaoyang and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2017-03-31 with total page 32 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper uses Ghana as a case study to illustrate the extent to which Chinese manufacturing firms are driving manufacturing in an African country. Through a combination of desktop and field research, the author finds that the total number of Chinese manufacturing investments in Ghana indeed increased during past decade, but quite a few projects have been abandoned or not implemented because of the unfavorable investment environment. Small and large manufacturing projects can be found in different sectors, such as plastics, steel, pharmaceuticals, and others. All of the manufacturing investments target local or regional markets, either taking advantage of local raw materials or seeing opportunities in a market with little competition. Transitioning from trading to manufacturing investment and clustering are identified as the main patterns by which Chinese investors establish themselves in Ghana. Chinese firms source simple raw materials from local suppliers but import industrial supplies from abroad. Learning from Chinese business models, a few local businessmen have started their own manufacturing projects, mostly in the plastics recycling sector, but a lack of capital appears to keep some local players from moving up the value chain. Ghana’s weak economy itself is limiting technology transfer and local linkages between Chinese firms and Ghanaians.

Harvesting Prosperity

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Publisher : World Bank Publications
ISBN 13 : 1464814295
Total Pages : 293 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (648 download)

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Book Synopsis Harvesting Prosperity by : Keith Fuglie

Download or read book Harvesting Prosperity written by Keith Fuglie and published by World Bank Publications. This book was released on 2019-11-05 with total page 293 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Back cover blurb Rising agricultural productivity has driven improvements in living standards for millennia. Today, redoubling that effort in developing countries is critical to reducing extreme poverty, ensuring food security for an increasing global population, and adapting to changes in climate. This volume presents fresh analysis on global trends and sources of productivity growth in agriculture and offers new perspectives on the drivers of that growth. It argues that gains from the reallocation of land and labor are not as promising as believed, so policy needs to focus more on the generation and dissemination of new technologies, which requires stepping up national research efforts. Yet, in many of the poorest nations, a serious research spending gap has emerged precisely at the time when the challenges faced by agriculture are intensifying. The book focuses on how this problem can be redressed in the public sector, as well as on reforms aimed at mobilizing new private sector actors and value chains, particularly creating a better enabling environment, reforming trade regulations, introducing new products, and strengthening intellectual property rights. On the demand side, the book examines what recent research reveals about policies to reduce the barriers impeding smallholder farmers from adopting new technologies. Harvesting Prosperity is the fourth volume of the World Bank Productivity Project, which seeks to bring frontier thinking on the measurement and determinants of productivity to global policy makers. “As rightly argued by the authors, growth in agricultural productivity is the essential instrument to promote development in low-income agriculture-based countries. Achieving this requires research and development, upgrading of universities, reinforcement of farmer capacities, removal of constraints to adoption, and the development of inclusive value chains with interlinked contracts. As important, such efforts also need to be placed within a context of comprehensive agricultural, rural, and structural transformations. However, in many countries implementation of the requisite policies has been lagging. This book, with contributions from many top experts in the field, provides the most up-to-date presentation of this argument and explains in detail how to successfully put its ideas into practice. Governments, the private sector, and civil society organizations need to study it carefully to turn the promise of agriculture for development into a reality.“ Alain de Janvry and Elisabeth Sadoulet Professors of the Graduate School, University of California at Berkeley

Interventions for inclusive and efficient value chains: Insights from CGIAR research

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Author :
Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 13 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Interventions for inclusive and efficient value chains: Insights from CGIAR research by : de Brauw, Alan

Download or read book Interventions for inclusive and efficient value chains: Insights from CGIAR research written by de Brauw, Alan and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-12-31 with total page 13 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Efforts to promote the development of agricultural value chains are a common element of strategies to stimulate economic growth in low-income countries. Since the world food price crisis in 2007-2008, developing country governments, international donor agencies, and development practitioners have placed additional emphasis on making agricultural value chains work better for the poor. As value chains evolve to serve new markets, they tend to become less inclusive. For example, if a market for high quality rice arises within an economy, it is inherently easier for traders who sell rice to retailers to source that high quality rice from larger farms that are better able to control its quality than from dozens of smallholder farms. As a result, the normal path of value chain evolution can be biased against smallholders; hence, it is important to understand what types of interventions can make value chains more inclusive while also making them more efficient. In this brief, we summarize studies on five types of value chain interventions that were supported by the CGIAR’s Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) through its Flagship 3 on Inclusive and Effective Value Chains. Figure 1 illustrates a “typical” agricultural value chain, including the five intervention types (in orange). These include interventions that attempt to deal with multiple production constraints; certification; contract farming; public-private partnerships; and “other” services related to trading and marketing agricultural products. Apart from the last category, these interventions all involve production. This reflects the fact that smallholder producers can be considered, in some ways, the weakest link in evolving agricultural value chains (de Brauw and Bulte 2021). Hence, it is sensible to target interventions either at or close to smallholders. However, in some cases, the best way to overcome smallholder constraints may be to help actors at other points in the value chain overcome constraints. Many interventions share a focus on reducing transaction costs to promote smallholder market integration. Ideally, interventions increase both efficiency and inclusion, but we observe that such win-win outcomes are rare. Trade-offs appear to be more common than synergies, and some value chain interventions involve clear winners and losers.

PIM achievements in innovations related to inclusive and efficient agricultural value chains

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 16 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis PIM achievements in innovations related to inclusive and efficient agricultural value chains by : de Brauw, Alan

Download or read book PIM achievements in innovations related to inclusive and efficient agricultural value chains written by de Brauw, Alan and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2021-12-09 with total page 16 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Efforts to promote the development and agricultural value chains area common element of strategies to stimulate economic growth in low-income countries. Since the world food price crisis in 2007-2008, developing country governments, international donor agencies, and development practitioners have placed additional focus on trying to make agricultural value chains work better for the poor. As value chains evolve to serve new markets, they tend to become less inclusive. For example, if a value chain for high quality rice arises within an economy, it is inherently easier for those who sell rice to retailers to source that high quality rice from larger farms with the ability to control quality than from dozens of smallholder farms. As a result, the normal path of value chain evolution can be biased against smallholders; hence it is important to understand what types of interventions can make value chains more inclusive while also making them more efficient.

Insuring against droughts: Evidence on agricultural intensification and index insurance demand from a randomized evaluation in rural Bangladesh

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Insuring against droughts: Evidence on agricultural intensification and index insurance demand from a randomized evaluation in rural Bangladesh by : Hill, Ruth Vargas

Download or read book Insuring against droughts: Evidence on agricultural intensification and index insurance demand from a randomized evaluation in rural Bangladesh written by Hill, Ruth Vargas and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2017-04-07 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is widely acknowledged that unmitigated risks provide a disincentive for otherwise optimal investments in modern farm inputs. Index insurance provides a means for managing risk without the burdens of asymmetric information and high transaction costs that plague traditional indemnity-based crop insurance programs. Yet many index insurance programs that have been piloted around the world have met with rather limited success, so the potential for insurance to foster more intensive agricultural production has yet to be realized. This study assesses both the demand for and the effectiveness of an innovative index insurance product designed to help smallholder farmers in Bangladesh manage risk to crop yields and the increased production costs associated with drought. Villages were randomized into either an insurance treatment or a comparison group, and discounts and rebates were randomly allocated across treatment villages to encourage insurance take-up and to allow for the estimation of the price elasticity of insurance demand. Among those offered insurance, we find insurance demand to be moderately price elastic, with discounts significantly more successful in stimulating demand than rebates. Farmers who are highly risk averse or sensitive to basis risk prefer a rebate to a discount, suggesting that the rebate may partially offset some of the implicit costs associated with insurance contract nonperformance. Having insurance yields both ex ante risk management effects and ex post income effects on agricultural input use. The risk management effects lead to increased expenditures on inputs during the aman rice-growing season, including expenditures for risky inputs such as fertilizers, as well as those for irrigation and pesticides. The income effects lead to increased seed expenditures during the boro rice-growing season, which may signal insured farmers’ higher rates of seed replacement, which broadens their access to technological improvements embodied in newer seeds as well as enhancing the genetic purity of cultivated seeds.

Measuring postharvest losses at the farm level in Malawi

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Measuring postharvest losses at the farm level in Malawi by : Ambler, Kate

Download or read book Measuring postharvest losses at the farm level in Malawi written by Ambler, Kate and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2017-04-14 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Reducing food loss and waste are important policy objectives prominently featured in the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals. To optimally design interventions targeted at reducing losses, it is important to know where losses are concentrated between the farm and fork. This paper measures farmlevel postharvest losses for three main crops—maize, soy, and groundnuts—among 1,200 households in Malawi. Farmers answered a detailed questionnaire designed to learn about losses during harvest and transport, processing, and storage and which measures both total losses and reductions in crop quality. The findings indicate that fewer than half of households report suffering losses conditional on growing each crop. In addition, conditional on losses occurring, the loss averages between 5 and 12 percent of the farmer’s total harvest. Compared to nationally representative data that measure losses using a single survey question, this study documents a far greater percentage of farmers experiencing losses, though the unconditional proportion lost is similar. We find that losses are concentrated in harvest and processing activities for groundnuts and maize; for soy, they are highest during processing. Existing interventions have primarily targeted storage activities; however, these results suggest that targeting other activities may be worthwhile.

Participation, learning, and equity in education: Can we have it all?

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Participation, learning, and equity in education: Can we have it all? by : Delavallade, Clara

Download or read book Participation, learning, and equity in education: Can we have it all? written by Delavallade, Clara and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2017-03-30 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals have set a triple educational objective: improving access to, quality of, and gender equity in education. This study is the first to document the effectiveness of policies targeting all these objectives simultaneously. We examine the impact of a multifaceted educational program—delivered to 230 randomly selected primary schools in rural India—on students’ participation and performance. We also study the heterogeneity of this impact across gender and initial school performance, and its sustainability over two years. Although the program specifically targeted outof-school girls for enrollment, the learning component of the program targeted boys and girls equally. We find that the program reduced gender gaps in school retention and improved learning during the first year of implementation. However, targeting different educational goals (access, quality, and equity) did not yield sustained effects on school attendance or learning, nor did it bridge gender inequalities in school performance over the two-year period.

Building resilience for food systems in postwar communities

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Building resilience for food systems in postwar communities by : Pal, Chandrashri

Download or read book Building resilience for food systems in postwar communities written by Pal, Chandrashri and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2017-05-19 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Prolonged civil wars can have long-lasting adverse effects on food systems, leading to poverty and food insecurity. Overcoming food insecurity and land inequality is particularly difficult because of the highly politicized nature of conflict. This paper builds on the existing literature on food sovereignty to ensure sustainable livelihoods and community ownership of a resilient food system. We identify components of community food security to be strengthened in a post war reconstruction context. We study the impacts of the civil war on food and land administration systems, farmer struggles and current transitional justice process in relation to community food security in the Northern and Eastern Provinces in Sri Lanka and identify the technological, institutional, organizational, and infrastructural setbacks caused by conflict. It explores how such setbacks could be rectified and a resilient food system could be built in the postwar scenario.

Economic accounts for agriculture and farm income in Senegal

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 44 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Economic accounts for agriculture and farm income in Senegal by : Fofana, Ismaël

Download or read book Economic accounts for agriculture and farm income in Senegal written by Fofana, Ismaël and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2017-05-12 with total page 44 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system is of critical importance for evidence- and outcome-based planning and implementation in agriculture. The availability of and access to timely and reliable data to inform the M&E system is an undeniable asset. Our analysis highlights the use of survey data to generate relevant information and knowledge on the agricultural sector. The Poverty Monitoring Survey carried out in Senegal in 2011 is used to build the economic accounts for agriculture, which identify a value added of 581 billion CFA francs generated by Senegal’s farm households, representing 60 percent of the sector’s value added in 2011. The average farm household generated 646,500 CFA francs from farming in that same year. The information from the economic accounts for agriculture offers valuable inputs for decision-support tools such as the geographical information platforms (e-atlas) and social accounting matrixes used in strategic analyses and agricultural policy planning.

Contesting Africa’s New Green Revolution

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Publisher : Bloomsbury Publishing
ISBN 13 : 178699657X
Total Pages : 217 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (869 download)

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Book Synopsis Contesting Africa’s New Green Revolution by : Jacqueline A. Ignatova

Download or read book Contesting Africa’s New Green Revolution written by Jacqueline A. Ignatova and published by Bloomsbury Publishing. This book was released on 2021-05-20 with total page 217 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Genetically modified crops have become a key element of development strategies across the Global South, despite remaining deeply controversial. Proponents hail them as an example of 'pro-poor' innovation, while critics regard them as a threat to food sovereignty and the environment. The promotion of biotechnology is an integral part of 'new Green Revolution for Africa' interventions and is also intimately linked to the rise of 'philanthrocapitalism,' which advances business solutions to address the problem of poverty. Through interviews with farmers, policymakers and agricultural scientists, Jacqueline Ignatova shows how efforts to transform the seed sector in northern Ghana – one of the key laboratories of this 'new Green Revolution' – may serve to exacerbate the inequality it was notionally intended to address. But she also argues that its effects in Ghana have been far more complex than either side of the debate has acknowledged, with local farmers proving adept at blending traditional and modern agricultural methods that subvert the interests of global agribusiness.

Climate change and variability

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 128 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Climate change and variability by : Choufani, Jowel

Download or read book Climate change and variability written by Choufani, Jowel and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2017-06-26 with total page 128 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The paper uses a food systems approach to analyze the bidirectional relationships between climate change and food and nutrition along the entire food value chain. It then identifies adaptation and mitigation interventions for each step of the food value chain to move toward a more climate-smart, nutrition-sensitive food system. The study focuses on poor rural farmers, a population especially vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change on nutrition, although we recognize that there are other vulnerable populations, including urban poor and rural populations working outside of agriculture. Although this report does not explicitly exclude overweight and obesity, it focuses primarily on undernutrition because this nutritional status is currently more prevalent than overnutrition among our target population.

Policy framework for contract farming: An alternate to Aarthi system in Pakistan

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 110 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Policy framework for contract farming: An alternate to Aarthi system in Pakistan by : Rana, Abdul Wajid

Download or read book Policy framework for contract farming: An alternate to Aarthi system in Pakistan written by Rana, Abdul Wajid and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2023-01-27 with total page 110 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Global agricultural production is undergoing a remarkable shift due to globalization and market liberalization (Setboonsarng et al., 2008). Food markets are transforming from a ‘non-programmed to programmed’ regime stemming from overwhelming changes in demand patterns happening concurrently with variations in production dynamics internationally (Oostendorp, 2018). This presents both the challenge and opportunity to change and adapt to this more structured world to reap benefits for both smallholder farmers and exporters (Setboonsarng et al., 2008).

Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand

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Publisher : Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 34 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand by : Gouel, Christophe

Download or read book Nutrition transition and the structure of global food demand written by Gouel, Christophe and published by Intl Food Policy Res Inst. This book was released on 2017-04-07 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Estimating future demand for food is a critical aspect of global food security analyses. The process linking dietary changes to wealth is known as the nutrition transition and presents well-identified features that help to predict consumption changes in poor countries. This study proposes to represent the nutrition transition with a nonhomothetic, flexible-in-income, demand system, known as the Modified Implicitly Directly Additive Demand System (MAIDADS). The resulting model is transparent and estimated statistically based on cross-sectional information from FAOSTAT the statistical database of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. It captures the main features of the nutrition transition: rise in demand for calories associated with income growth; diversification of diets away from starchy staples; and a large increase in caloric demand for animal-based products, fats, and sweeteners. The estimated model is used to project food demand between 2010 and 2050 based on a set of plausible futures (trend projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios). The main results of these projections are as follows: (1) global food demand will increase by 46 percent, less than half the growth in the previous four decades; (2) this growth will be attributable mainly to lower-middle-income and low-income countries; (3) the structure of global food demand will change over the period, with a 95 percent increase in demand for animal-based calories and a much smaller 18 percent increase in demand for starchy staples; and (4) the analysis of a range of population and income projections reveals important uncertainties depending on the scenario, the projected increases in demand for animal-based and vegetal-based calories range from 78 to 109 percent and from 20 to 42 percent, respectively.