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Author : Sergey Slobodyan
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9788073441876
Total Pages : 65 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (418 download)
Download or read book Learning in an Estimated Medium-scale DSGE Model written by Sergey Slobodyan and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 65 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Pablo Aguilar
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 55 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Term Structure and Real-Time Learning written by Pablo Aguilar and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 55 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper introduces the term structure of interest rates into a medium-scale DSGE model. This extension results in a multi-period forecasting model that is estimated under both adaptive learning and rational expectations. Term structure information enables us to characterize agents' expectations in real time, which addresses an imperfect information issue mostly neglected in the adaptive learning literature. Relative to the rational expectations version, our estimated DSGE model under adaptive learning largely improves the model fit to the data, which include not just macroeconomic data but also the yield curve and the consumption growth and inflation forecasts reported in the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Moreover, the estimation results show that most endogenous sources of aggregate persistence are dramatically undercut when adaptive learning based on multi-period forecasting is incorporated through the term structure of interest rates.
Author : Nathan Balke
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1781903069
Total Pages : 467 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (819 download)
Download or read book DSGE Models in Macroeconomics written by Nathan Balke and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-11-29 with total page 467 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume of Advances in Econometrics contains articles that examine key topics in the modeling and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Because DSGE models combine micro- and macroeconomic theory with formal econometric modeling and inference, over the past decade they have become an established framework for analy
Author : Nathan Balke
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1781903050
Total Pages : 480 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (819 download)
Download or read book DSGE Models in Macroeconomics written by Nathan Balke and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2012-11-29 with total page 480 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume of Advances in Econometrics contains articles that examine key topics in the modeling and estimation of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Because DSGE models combine micro- and macroeconomic theory with formal econometric modeling and inference, over the past decade they have become an established framework for analy
Author : X. Liu
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (118 download)
Download or read book Critically Assessing Estimated DSGE Models written by X. Liu and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Mr.Roger Farmer
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1484342658
Total Pages : 31 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (843 download)
Download or read book Solving and Estimating Indeterminate DSGE Models written by Mr.Roger Farmer and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2013-10-01 with total page 31 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a method for solving and estimating linear rational expectations models that exhibit indeterminacy and we provide step-by-step guidelines for implementing this method in the Matlab-based packages Dynare and Gensys. Our method redefines a subset of expectational errors as new fundamentals. This redefinition allows us to treat indeterminate models as determinate and to apply standard solution algorithms. We provide a selection method, based on Bayesian model comparison, to decide which errors to pick as fundamental and we present simulation results to show how our procedure works in practice.
Author : Alice Albonico
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Estimating a DSGE Model with Limited Asset Market Participation for the Euro Area written by Alice Albonico and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We estimate a medium scale DSGE model for the Euro Area to gain intuition on the importance of Limited Asset Market Participation (LAMP). Our results suggest that LAMP is sizeable (39% of households over the 1993-2012 sample) and important to understand EMU business cycle, especially, in the light of the recent financial crisis. In comparison with the representative households counterpart, the LAMP model is preferred on the grounds of both the Bayes factor and the average forecasting performance. Given the tighter credit standards we might expect in the near future, the high proportion of LAMP households is likely to remain an important feature of EMU. We also find that the LAMP model leads to conclusions about the main determinants of EMU business cycle that are substantially different from those obtained under the representative agent hypothesis. Given these results, the LAMP hypothesis should be part and parcel of empirical DSGE models of the Euro area.
Author : Allan Dizioli
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 30 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (2 download)
Download or read book How Do Adaptive Learning Expectations Rationalize Stronger Monetary Policy Response in Brazil? written by Allan Dizioli and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2023-01-27 with total page 30 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper estimates a standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that includes a wage and price Phillip's curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational expectation process, we also use a limited rationality process, the adaptive learning model. In this context, we show that the separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job in fitting the data in both Brazil and the USA. In addition, the estimation shows that expectations are more backward-looking and started to drift away sooner in 2021 in Brazil than in the USA. We then conduct optimal policy exercises that prescribe early monetary policy tightening in the context of positive output gaps and inflation far above the central bank target.
Author : Graham Elliott
Publisher : Newnes
ISBN 13 : 0444536841
Total Pages : 719 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 719 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Author : Stefan Homburg
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0192534556
Total Pages : 191 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (925 download)
Download or read book A Study in Monetary Macroeconomics written by Stefan Homburg and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2017-07-04 with total page 191 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The financial crisis of 2007 and the following recession present a major challenge to macroeconomic theory. The same holds true for exceptionally low interest rates during the recent years and for the puzzle that super-expansive monetary policies failed to produce high inflation. Approaches that focus on steady states, rational expectations, and individuals planning over infinite horizons, are not suitable for analysing such abnormal situations. A Study in Monetary Macroeconomics refines and improves mainstream approaches to resolve these puzzles and to contribute to a better understanding of monetary and fiscal policies. Using a rich institutional structure that includes features such as credit money, external finance, borrowing constraints, net worth, real estate and commercial banks, this timely study reduces rationality requirements to cope with its complex setting. It starts with a simple baseline model, deriving results from mathematical reasoning and simulations whilst adhering to the method of dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) with optimizing agents and fully specified models. Highly topical, A Study in Monetary Macroeconomics uses a unified theoretical framework to demonstrate that a DGE approach makes it possible to develop clean models that work outside steady states and are appropriate for answering macroeconomic questions of actual interest.
Author : Pablo Aguilar
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 52 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (931 download)
Download or read book The Role of Term Structure in an Estimated DSGE Model with Learning written by Pablo Aguilar and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 52 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Edward P. Herbst
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691161089
Total Pages : 295 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)
Download or read book Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models written by Edward P. Herbst and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2015-12-29 with total page 295 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models have become one of the workhorses of modern macroeconomics and are extensively used for academic research as well as forecasting and policy analysis at central banks. This book introduces readers to state-of-the-art computational techniques used in the Bayesian analysis of DSGE models. The book covers Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques for linearized DSGE models, novel sequential Monte Carlo methods that can be used for parameter inference, and the estimation of nonlinear DSGE models based on particle filter approximations of the likelihood function. The theoretical foundations of the algorithms are discussed in depth, and detailed empirical applications and numerical illustrations are provided. The book also gives invaluable advice on how to tailor these algorithms to specific applications and assess the accuracy and reliability of the computations. Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models is essential reading for graduate students, academic researchers, and practitioners at policy institutions.
Author : Filippo Ferroni
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 37 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)
Download or read book Selecting Primal Innovations in DSGE Models written by Filippo Ferroni and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 37 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: DSGE models are typically estimated assuming the existence of certain primal shocks that drive macroeconomic fluctuations. We analyze the consequences of estimating shocks that are "non-existent" and propose a method to select the primal shocks driving macroeconomic uncertainty. Forcing these non-existing shocks in estimation produces a downward bias in the estimated internal persistence of the model. We show how these distortions can be reduced by using priors for standard deviations whose support includes zero. The method allows us to accurately select primal shocks and estimate model parameters with high precision. We revisit the empirical evidence on an industry standard medium-scale DSGE model and find that government and price markup shocks are innovations that do not generate statistically significant dynamics.
Author : John B. Taylor
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444594787
Total Pages : 1376 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Macroeconomics written by John B. Taylor and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2016-12-01 with total page 1376 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Macroeconomics surveys all major advances in macroeconomic scholarship since the publication of Volume 1 (1999), carefully distinguishing between empirical, theoretical, methodological, and policy issues. It courageously examines why existing models failed during the financial crisis, and also addresses well-deserved criticism head on. With contributions from the world's chief macroeconomists, its reevaluation of macroeconomic scholarship and speculation on its future constitute an investment worth making. Serves a double role as a textbook for macroeconomics courses and as a gateway for students to the latest research Acts as a one-of-a-kind resource as no major collections of macroeconomic essays have been published in the last decade
Author : Ruediger Bachmann
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0128234768
Total Pages : 876 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (282 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Expectations written by Ruediger Bachmann and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2022-11-04 with total page 876 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Economic Expectations discusses the state-of-the-art in the collection, study and use of expectations data in economics, including the modelling of expectations formation and updating, as well as open questions and directions for future research. The book spans a broad range of fields, approaches and applications using data on subjective expectations that allows us to make progress on fundamental questions around the formation and updating of expectations by economic agents and their information sets. The information included will help us study heterogeneity and potential biases in expectations and analyze impacts on behavior and decision-making under uncertainty. Combines information about the creation of economic expectations and their theories, applications and likely futures Provides a comprehensive summary of economics expectations literature Explores empirical and theoretical dimensions of expectations and their relevance to a wide array of subfields in economics
Author : Fabio Milani
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Expectations, Learning and Macroeconomic Persistence written by Fabio Milani and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper presents an estimated model with learning and provides evidence that learning can improve the fit of popular monetary DSGE models and endogenously generate realistic levels of persistence. The paper starts with an agnostic view, developing a model that nests learning and some of the structural sources of persistence, such as habit formation in consumption and inflation indexation, that are typically needed in monetary models with rational expectations to match the persistence of macroeconomic variables. I estimate the model by likelihood-based Bayesian methods, which allow the estimation of the learning gain coefficient jointly with the 'deep' parameters of the economy. The empirical results show that when learning replaces rational expectations, the estimated degrees of habits and indexation drop near zero. This finding suggests that persistence arises in the model economy mainly from expectations and learning. The posterior model probabilities show that the specification with learning fits significantly better than does the specification with rational expectations. Finally, if learning rather than mechanical sources of persistence provides a more appropriate representation of the economy, the implied optimal policy will be different. The policymaker will also incur substantial costs from misspecifying private expectations formation.
Author :
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080932703
Total Pages : 754 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (89 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Monetary Economics 3A written by and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2010-12-08 with total page 754 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What tools are available for setting and analyzing monetary policy? World-renowned contributors examine recent evidence on subjects as varied as price-setting, inflation persistence, the private sector's formation of inflation expectations, and the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Stopping short of advocating conclusions about the ideal conduct of policy, the authors focus instead on analytical methods and the changing interactions among the ingredients and properties that inform monetary models. The influences between economic performance and monetary policy regimes can be both grand and muted, and this volume clarifies the present state of this continually evolving relationship. Explores the models and practices used in formulating and transmitting monetary policies Raises new questions about the volume, price, and availability of credit in the 2007-2010 downturn Questions fiscal-monetary connnections and encourages new thinking about the business cycle itself Observes changes in the formulation of monetary policies over the last 25 years
