Read Books Online and Download eBooks, EPub, PDF, Mobi, Kindle, Text Full Free.
Download Learning Dynamics In A Nonlinear Stochastic Model Of Exchange Rates full books in PDF, epub, and Kindle. Read online Learning Dynamics In A Nonlinear Stochastic Model Of Exchange Rates ebook anywhere anytime directly on your device. Fast Download speed and no annoying ads. We cannot guarantee that every ebooks is available!
Author : Carl Chiarella
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (222 download)
Download or read book Learning Dynamics in a Nonlinear Stochastic Model of Exchange Rate written by Carl Chiarella and published by . This book was released on 1996 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Carl Chiarella
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Learning Dynamics in a Nonlinear Stochastic Model of Exchange Rates written by Carl Chiarella and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper considers a version of the Dornbusch model of exchange rate dynamics which allows a nonlinear domestic demand for foreign assets function and imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign interest bearing assets. Expectations of exchange rate changes are modelled as adaptive with perfect foresight being obtained as a limiting case. For sufficiently rapid speed of adjustment of expectations the model is able to generate cyclical behaviour of the exchange rate and expectations of its change. In the perfect foresight limit the cycles become relaxation cycles. To this underlying model of the fundamentals a white noise news process is added. Agents are assumed to attempt to learn about the system dynamics and the link between such learning and exchange rate volatility is studied. Two learning scenarios are considered. In the first scenario economic agents are regarded as a uniformly well-informed group of sophisticated traders. In the second scenario a group of naive traders coexist with the sophisticated traders. We find that both learning scenarios lead to increased volatility. However this effect increases in proportion to the weight of the naive traders.
Author : Lucio Sarno
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451853491
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models written by Lucio Sarno and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2003-05-01 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper provides a selective overview of nonlinear exchange rate models recently proposed in the literature and assesses their contribution to understanding exchange rate behavior. Two key questions are examined. The first question is whether nonlinear autoregressive models of real exchange rates help resolve the "purchasing power parity (PPP) puzzles." The second question is whether recently developed nonlinear, regime-switching vector equilibrium correction models of the nominal exchange rate can beat a random walk model, the standard benchmark in the exchange rate literature, in terms of out-of-sample forecasting performance. Finally, issues related to the adequateness of standard methods of evaluation of (linear and nonlinear) exchange rate models are discussed with reference to different forecast accuracy criteria.
Author :
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 1349588024
Total Pages : 7493 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (495 download)
Download or read book The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics written by and published by Springer. This book was released on 2016-05-18 with total page 7493 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The award-winning The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, 2nd edition is now available as a dynamic online resource. Consisting of over 1,900 articles written by leading figures in the field including Nobel prize winners, this is the definitive scholarly reference work for a new generation of economists. Regularly updated! This product is a subscription based product.
Author : Shamar Levaughn Stewart
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 348 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (131 download)
Download or read book Modeling Nonlinear Dynamics in Exchange Rates and Economic Growth written by Shamar Levaughn Stewart and published by . This book was released on 2019 with total page 348 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This dissertation explores modeling existing nonlinear dynamics in exchange rates and economic growth. Particularly, the three essays, herein, investigate the stability of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) and synchronicity of economic growth across provinces in China. The first essay empirically assesses the degree of fluctuations in the SDRs attributable to U.S monetary policy. In this vein, I contribute to the financial asset/exchange rate literature by identifying structural shocks to real-time U.S. output growth, inflation, and short-term interest rates. Moreover, I exploit the time-varying heteroskedasticity of the data without imposing a priori exclusion restrictions. Over the period 1981.Q1-2018.Q1, a contractionary U.S. monetary policy shock results in an immediate depreciation of the U.S. dollar value of the euro, Yen, and pound in the SDR basket. After the introduction of French and German Euros in 1999.Q1, all the currencies appreciated against the USD. Also, U.S. monetary policy contributes about 4% of the variations in the SDR basket's return. Chapter 2, explores the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on the value of SDRs during the 1981.M1 0́3 1998.M12 and 1999.M1 0́3 2016.M9 vintages. Unlike the first chapter, we test the data against different monetary policy indicators presented in the macroeconomics literature. To this end, we use a structural vector autoregression with identification through heteroskedasticity to identify the appropriate instruments of monetary policy. We find that the nominal exchange rates are insulated from U.S. policy shocks0́4 the contribution does not exceed 15%. In both subsamples, policy easing induces an appreciation in the dollar. In the third chapter, we use a dynamic factor model with time-varying loading parameters and stochastic volatility to document significant evidence of time-varying synchronization of the regional growth dynamics in China. The correlation in cross-region economic growth performance increased during the recent global recession and declined post-recession, albeit still at a higher level than before 2008. While the large degree of synchronization of regional growth dynamics permits the central government (bank) to implement a uniform fiscal (monetary) policy, this also reduces China's ability to stymie the propagation of external shocks and instead increases systemic risks across regions.
Author : Francis X. Diebold
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 170 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)
Download or read book Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Springer. This book was released on 1988 with total page 170 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Young Se Kim
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (65 download)
Download or read book Expectations, Learning, and Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Young Se Kim and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: My dissertation studies models of exchange rate determination that are standard in all respects except that market participants have incomplete knowledge about the economic structure, and employ adaptive learning rules to learn about the economic environment. My work on introducing model uncertainty into standard models is motivated by the well documented fact that when the underlying economic environment is known and is common knowledge to market participants, models under rational expectations cannot account for such basic features of the data as the relative volatility between exchange rate and fundamentals or the predictability of future exchange rate returns by the deviation of the exchange rate from the fundamentals. I partly response to this problem to use an alternative view of expectations, adaptive expectations, which can be a reasonable way to form expectations when the environment is excessively complex. I find that the model under adaptive expectations performs better than rational expectations in explaining why the forward exchange rate as a predictor of the future spot rate generates a large bias, why the maximal depreciation of a currency upon an unexpected monetary shock occurs some periods after the initial shock. I consider a standard monetary model where market participants learn about the economic structure using adaptive learning rules. While market participants are assumed to know the functional form of the stochastic process that drives the fundamentals, they do not know the parameter values which they assess by least squares learning. Market participants must also contend with unannounced regime shifts in the fundamental process. I compare the predictions of the model under adaptive learning to those generated under standard rational expectations and under adaptive expectations. I find that the model under adaptive learning dominates the alternative specifications of expectations in its ability to account for why the fundamentals predict exchange rate returns over long horizons, for generating exchange rate return volatility in excess of fundamentals volatility, and in generating persistent deviations of the exchange rate from the fundamentals. I conclude that the underlying model uncertainty goes far in helping to resolve some longstanding puzzles in the foreign exchange market.
Author : Francis X. Diebold
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642456413
Total Pages : 153 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (424 download)
Download or read book Empirical Modeling of Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Francis X. Diebold and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 153 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Structural exchange rate modeling has proven extremely difficult during the recent post-1973 float. The disappointment climaxed with the papers of Meese and Rogoff (1983a, 1983b), who showed that a "naive" random walk model distinctly dominated received theoretical models in terms of predictive performance for the major dollar spot rates. One purpose of this monograph is to seek the reasons for this failure by exploring the temporal behavior of seven major dollar exchange rates using nonstructural time-series methods. The Meese-Rogoff finding does not mean that exchange rates evolve as random walks; rather it simply means that the random walk is a better stochastic approximation than any of their other candidate models. In this monograph, we use optimal model specification techniques, including formal unit root tests which allow for trend, and find that all of the exchange rates studied do in fact evolve as random walks or random walks with drift (to a very close approximation). This result is consistent with efficient asset markets, and provides an explanation for the Meese-Rogoff results. Far more subtle forces are at work, however, which lead to interesting econometric problems and have implications for the measurement of exchange rate volatility and moment structure. It is shown that all exchange rates display substantial conditional heteroskedasticity. A particularly reasonable parameterization of this conditional heteroskedasticity, which captures the observed clustering of prediction error variances, is developed in Chapter 2.
Author : Carl Chiarella
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 29 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (129 download)
Download or read book Learning in a Generalized Dornbusch Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics written by Carl Chiarella and published by . This book was released on 2006 with total page 29 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we propose a framework for studying possible causes of excess exchange rate volatility. The framework consists of a generalized Dornbusch model of exchange rate dynamics, involving imperfect substitutability between assets, lagged nonlinear protfolio adjustment and les than perfectly rational expectations. As the model involves non-linear portfolio adjustment, it remains globally bounded even when the steady state is locally unstable. This economic environment is populated by a group of sophisticated agents who employ a maximum likelihood learning algorithm tolearnce about the true model. We use simulations to study the convergence of the learning scheme and its effect on exchange rate dynamics. Our analysis suggests that learning of speed of adjustment type parameters can be a source of exchange rate bubbles because of their effect on the local stability of the steady state.
Author : Zhaonan Chen
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 24 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book A Nonlinear Model of Real Exchange Rate Dynamics, with an Application to the Case of Taiwan written by Zhaonan Chen and published by . This book was released on 1994 with total page 24 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : George W. Evans
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780691049212
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (492 download)
Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2001-01-28 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
Author : Jeffrey A. Frankel
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Estimation of Nonlinear Exchange Rate Dynamics in Evolving Regimes written by Jeffrey A. Frankel and published by . This book was released on 2023 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops a new econometric framework to estimate and classify exchange rate regimes. They are classified into four distinct categories: fixed exchange rates, BBC (band, basket and crawl), managed floating, and freely floating. The procedure captures the patterns of exchange rate dynamics and the interventions by authorities under each of the regimes. We pay particular attention to the BBC and offer a new approach to parameter estimation by utilizing a three-regime Threshold Auto Regressive (TAR) model to reveal the nonlinear nature of exchange rate dynamics. We further extend our benchmark framework to allow the evolution of exchange rate regimes over time by adopting the minimum description length (MDL) principle, to overcome the challenge of simultaneous two-dimensional inference of nonlinearity in the state dimension and structural breaks in the time dimension. We apply our framework to 26 countries. The results suggest that exchange rate dynamics under different regimes are well captured by our new framework.
Author : Giovanni Piersanti
Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0199653127
Total Pages : 407 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (996 download)
Download or read book The Macroeconomic Theory of Exchange Rate Crises written by Giovanni Piersanti and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2012-04-26 with total page 407 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An overview of the causes and consequences of speculative attacks on domestic currency and international financial turmoil. It provides a comprehensive treatment of the existing theories of exchange rate crises and of financial market runs.
Author : Chiente Hsu
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642457657
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (424 download)
Download or read book Volume and the Nonlinear Dynamics of Stock Returns written by Chiente Hsu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This manuscript is about the joint dynamics of stock returns and trading volume. It grew out of my attempt to construct an intertemporal asset pricing model with rational agents which can. explain the relation between volume, volatility and persistence of stock return documented in empirical literature. Most part of the manuscript is taken from my thesis. I wish to express my deep appreciation to Peter Kugler and Benedikt Poetscher, my advisors of the thesis, for their invaluable guidance and support. I wish to thank Gerhard Orosel and Gerhard Sorger for their encouraging and helpful discussions. Finally, my thanks go to George Tauchen who has been generous in giving me the benefit of his numerical and computational experience, in providing me with programs and in his encouragement. Contents 1 Introduction 1 7 2 Efficient Stock Markets Equilibrium Models of Asset Pricing 8 2. 1 2. 1. 1 The Martigale Model of Stock Prices 8 2. 1. 2 Lucas' Consumption Based Asset Pricing Model 9 2. 2 Econometric Tests of the Efficient Market Hypothesis 13 2. 2. 1 Autocorrelation Based Tests 14 16 2. 2. 2 Volatility Tests Time-Varying Expected Returns 25 2. 2. 3 3 The Informational Role of Volume 29 3. 1 Standard Grossman-Stiglitz Model 31 3. 2 The No-Trad Result of the BEO Model 34 A Model with Nontradable Asset 37 3. 3 4 Volume and Volatility of Stock Returns 43 4. 1 Empirical and Numerical Results 45 4.
Author : Michael Woodford
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 9780444501561
Total Pages : 822 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (15 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Macroeconomics written by Michael Woodford and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1999 with total page 822 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Boris P. Bezruchko
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3642126014
Total Pages : 416 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (421 download)
Download or read book Extracting Knowledge From Time Series written by Boris P. Bezruchko and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-09-03 with total page 416 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Mathematical modelling is ubiquitous. Almost every book in exact science touches on mathematical models of a certain class of phenomena, on more or less speci?c approaches to construction and investigation of models, on their applications, etc. As many textbooks with similar titles, Part I of our book is devoted to general qu- tions of modelling. Part II re?ects our professional interests as physicists who spent much time to investigations in the ?eld of non-linear dynamics and mathematical modelling from discrete sequences of experimental measurements (time series). The latter direction of research is known for a long time as “system identi?cation” in the framework of mathematical statistics and automatic control theory. It has its roots in the problem of approximating experimental data points on a plane with a smooth curve. Currently, researchers aim at the description of complex behaviour (irregular, chaotic, non-stationary and noise-corrupted signals which are typical of real-world objects and phenomena) with relatively simple non-linear differential or difference model equations rather than with cumbersome explicit functions of time. In the second half of the twentieth century, it has become clear that such equations of a s- ?ciently low order can exhibit non-trivial solutions that promise suf?ciently simple modelling of complex processes; according to the concepts of non-linear dynamics, chaotic regimes can be demonstrated already by a third-order non-linear ordinary differential equation, while complex behaviour in a linear model can be induced either by random in?uence (noise) or by a very high order of equations.
Author : Hyginus Leon
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (849 download)
Download or read book Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates written by Hyginus Leon and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
