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Author : Stephen E. Morris
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)
Download or read book Justifying Rational Expectations written by Stephen E. Morris and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Robert E. Lucas
Publisher : U of Minnesota Press
ISBN 13 : 1452908281
Total Pages : 335 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (529 download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice written by Robert E. Lucas and published by U of Minnesota Press. This book was released on 1988 with total page 335 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Assumptions about how people form expectations for the future shape the properties of any dynamic economic model. To make economic decisions in an uncertain environment people must forecast such variables as future rates of inflation, tax rates, governme.
Author : Roger Guesnerie
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262262903
Total Pages : 498 pages
Book Rating : 4.2/5 (629 download)
Download or read book Assessing Rational Expectations 2 written by Roger Guesnerie and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2005-02-18 with total page 498 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A theoretical assessment of the Rational Expectations Hypothesis through subjecting a collection of economic models to an "eductive stability" test. The rational expectations hypothesis (REH) dominates economic modeling in areas ranging from monetary theory, macroeconomics, and general equilibrium to finance. In this book, Roger Guesnerie continues the critical analysis of the REH begun in his Assessing Rational Expectations: Sunspot Multiplicity and Economic Fluctuations, which dealt with the questions raised by multiplicity and its implications for a theory of endogenous fluctuations. This second volume emphasizes "eductive" learning: relying on careful reasoning, agents must deduce what other agents guess, a process that differs from the standard evolutionary learning experience in which agents make decisions about the future based on past experiences. A broad "eductive" stability test is proposed that includes common knowledge and results in a unique "rationalizable expectations equilibrium." This test provides the basis for Guesnerie's theoretical assessment of the plausibility of the REH's expectational coordination, emphasizing, for different categories of economic models, conditions for the REH's success or failure. Guesnerie begins by presenting the concepts and methods of the eductive stability analysis in selected partial equilibrium models. He then explores to what extent general equilibrium strategic complementarities interfere with partial equilibrium considerations in the formation of stable expectations. Guesnerie next examines two issues relating to eductive stability in financial market models, speculation and asymmetric price information. The dynamic settings of an infinite horizon model are then taken up, and particular standard and generalized saddle-path solutions are scrutinized. Guesnerie concludes with a review of general questions and some "cautious" remarks on the policy implications of his analysis.
Author : Richard Thomas Curtin
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1107004691
Total Pages : 365 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)
Download or read book Consumer Expectations written by Richard Thomas Curtin and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2019-02-07 with total page 365 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Proposes a new comprehensive theory about how expectations are formed and how they shape the macro economy.
Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)
Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Author : Preston J. Miller
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262631556
Total Pages : 534 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (315 download)
Download or read book The Rational Expectations Revolution written by Preston J. Miller and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1994 with total page 534 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: These 21 readings describe the orgins and growth of the macroeconomic analysis known as "rational expectations". The readings trace the development of this approach from the late 1970s to the 1990s.
Author : Alessandro Vercelli
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521392945
Total Pages : 292 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (929 download)
Download or read book Methodological Foundations of Macroeconomics written by Alessandro Vercelli and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1991-09-26 with total page 292 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book is an investigation of the methodological and epistemological foundations of macroeconomic theory, based on an examination of the theories of Keynes and Lucas. It is divided into two parts. In the first Professor Vercelli discusses the methodological issues which lie behind the conflict among different schools of thought in macroeconomics (equilibrium and disequilibrium, risk and uncertainty, rationality and causality). These issues are central to the current debate not only in many branches of economics, but also in other scientific disciplines. The traditional point of view of science based on equilibrium, stability and determinism has been increasingly challenged by a new point of view in which disequilibrium, instability and uncertainty play a crucial role. This, the author argues, is bound to put macroeconomics in a new, more promising position. In the second part of the book the author compares the two main alternative research programmes in macroeconomics: that outlined by Keynes in his 'General Theory', and that suggested by Lucas, the leader of the new classical economists.
Author : George W. Evans
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400824265
Total Pages : 424 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Learning and Expectations in Macroeconomics written by George W. Evans and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2012-01-06 with total page 424 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A crucial challenge for economists is figuring out how people interpret the world and form expectations that will likely influence their economic activity. Inflation, asset prices, exchange rates, investment, and consumption are just some of the economic variables that are largely explained by expectations. Here George Evans and Seppo Honkapohja bring new explanatory power to a variety of expectation formation models by focusing on the learning factor. Whereas the rational expectations paradigm offers the prevailing method to determining expectations, it assumes very theoretical knowledge on the part of economic actors. Evans and Honkapohja contribute to a growing body of research positing that households and firms learn by making forecasts using observed data, updating their forecast rules over time in response to errors. This book is the first systematic development of the new statistical learning approach. Depending on the particular economic structure, the economy may converge to a standard rational-expectations or a "rational bubble" solution, or exhibit persistent learning dynamics. The learning approach also provides tools to assess the importance of new models with expectational indeterminacy, in which expectations are an independent cause of macroeconomic fluctuations. Moreover, learning dynamics provide a theory for the evolution of expectations and selection between alternative equilibria, with implications for business cycles, asset price volatility, and policy. This book provides an authoritative treatment of this emerging field, developing the analytical techniques in detail and using them to synthesize and extend existing research.
Author : Gerard Debreu
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3662046237
Total Pages : 363 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (62 download)
Download or read book Economics Essays written by Gerard Debreu and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2013-04-17 with total page 363 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Back in the good old days on the fourth floor of the Altbau of Bonn's Ju ridicum, Werner Hildenbrand put an end to a debate about a festschrift in honor of an economist on the occasion of his turning 60 with a laconic: "Much too early." Remembering his position five years ago, we did not dare to think about one for him. But now he has turned 65. If consulted, he would most likely still answer: "Much too early." However, he has to take his official re tirement, and we believe that this is the right moment for such an endeavor. No doubt Werner Hildenbrand will not really retire. As professor emeritus, free from the constraints of a rigid teaching schedule and the burden of com mittee meetings, he will be able to indulge his passions. We expect him to pursue, with undiminished enthusiasm, his research, travel, golfing, the arts, and culinary pleasures - escaping real retirement.
Author : Charles H. Whiteman
Publisher : U of Minnesota Press
ISBN 13 : 1452907935
Total Pages : 151 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (529 download)
Download or read book Linear Rational Expectations Models written by Charles H. Whiteman and published by U of Minnesota Press. This book was released on 1984 with total page 151 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Roman Frydman
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521310956
Total Pages : 254 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (19 download)
Download or read book Individual Forecasting and Aggregate Outcomes written by Roman Frydman and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1986-10-02 with total page 254 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The papers in this volume provide a complex view of market processes.
Author : Roman Frydman
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400838185
Total Pages : 304 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)
Download or read book Beyond Mechanical Markets written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-07 with total page 304 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A powerful challenge to contemporary economics and a new agenda for global finance In the wake of the global financial crisis that began in 2007, faith in the rationality of markets has lost ground to a new faith in their irrationality. The problem, Roman Frydman and Michael Goldberg argue, is that both the rational and behavioral theories of the market rest on the same fatal assumption—that markets act mechanically and economic change is fully predictable. In Beyond Mechanical Markets, Frydman and Goldberg show how the failure to abandon this assumption hinders our understanding of how markets work, why price swings help allocate capital to worthy companies, and what role government can and can't play. The financial crisis, Frydman and Goldberg argue, was made more likely, if not inevitable, by contemporary economic theory, yet its core tenets remain unchanged today. In response, the authors show how imperfect knowledge economics, an approach they pioneered, provides a better understanding of markets and the financial crisis. Frydman and Goldberg deliver a withering critique of the widely accepted view that the boom in equity prices that ended in 2007 was a bubble fueled by herd psychology. They argue, instead, that price swings are driven by individuals' ever-imperfect interpretations of the significance of economic fundamentals for future prices and risk. Because swings are at the heart of a dynamic economy, reforms should aim only to curb their excesses. Showing why we are being dangerously led astray by thinking of markets as predictably rational or irrational, Beyond Mechanical Markets presents a powerful challenge to conventional economic wisdom that we can't afford to ignore.
Author : Don Lavoie
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1134929641
Total Pages : 333 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (349 download)
Download or read book Economics and Hermeneutics written by Don Lavoie and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2005-07-28 with total page 333 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economics and Hermeneutics looks at the ways that hermeneutics might help economists address problems such as entrepreneurship, price theory, rational expectations, monetary theory, welfare economics, and economic policy.
Author : Stephen A. Marglin
Publisher : Harvard University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780674364165
Total Pages : 596 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (641 download)
Download or read book Growth, Distribution, and Prices written by Stephen A. Marglin and published by Harvard University Press. This book was released on 1984 with total page 596 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: What determines the rate of growth, the distribution of income, and the structure of relative prices under capitalism? What, in short, makes capitalist economies tick? This watershed treatise analyzes the answers to these questions provided by three major theoretical traditions: neoclassical, neo-Marxian, and neo-Keynesian. Until now, the mutual criticism exchanged by partisans of the different traditions has focused disproportionately on the logical shortcomings of rival theories, or on such questions as whether or not input-output relationships can be described by a continuous-substitution production function. In this book, these are at best secondary issues. The real distinguishing features of the theories, for Stephen Marglin, are their characterization of labor markets and capital accumulation. For clarity, Marglin first sets out the essential features of each theory in the context of a common production model with a single good and a fixed-coefficient technology. He then formalizes the different theories as alternative ways of closing the model. In subsequent chapters he examines the effects of relaxing key simplifying assumptions, in particular the characterization of technology and the homogeneity of output and capital. And although his primary emphasis is theoretical, he does not ignore the problem of empirically testing the theories. Finally, he synthesizes the insights of the neo-Marxian and neo-Keynesian models into a single model that transcends the shortcomings of each taken separately. Marglin anticipates that partisans of the different traditions will agree on one point: each will allow that the book reveals the shortcomings of the other theories but will insist that it fails utterly to reflect the power and majesty of one's own particular brand of truth. Growth, Distribution, and Prices will be controversial, but it will not be ignored.
Author : Thomas J. Sargent
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691158703
Total Pages : 389 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)
Download or read book Rational Expectations and Inflation written by Thomas J. Sargent and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013-05-05 with total page 389 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A fully expanded edition of the Nobel Prize–winning economist's classic book This collection of essays uses the lens of rational expectations theory to examine how governments anticipate and plan for inflation, and provides insight into the pioneering research for which Thomas Sargent was awarded the 2011 Nobel Prize in economics. Rational expectations theory is based on the simple premise that people will use all the information available to them in making economic decisions, yet applying the theory to macroeconomics and econometrics is technically demanding. Here, Sargent engages with practical problems in economics in a less formal, noneconometric way, demonstrating how rational expectations can satisfactorily interpret a range of historical and contemporary events. He focuses on periods of actual or threatened depreciation in the value of a nation's currency. Drawing on historical attempts to counter inflation, from the French Revolution and the aftermath of World War I to the economic policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan, Sargent finds that there is no purely monetary cure for inflation; rather, monetary and fiscal policies must be coordinated. This fully expanded edition of Rational Expectations and Inflation includes Sargent's 2011 Nobel lecture, "United States Then, Europe Now." It also features new articles on the macroeconomics of the French Revolution and government budget deficits.
Author : Herbert Dawid
Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 3662002116
Total Pages : 173 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (62 download)
Download or read book Adaptive Learning by Genetic Algorithms written by Herbert Dawid and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2012-12-06 with total page 173 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An analysis of the learning behavior of genetic algorithms in economic systems with mutual interaction, such as markets. These systems are characterized by a state-dependent fitness function and - for the first time - mathematical results characterizing the long-term outcome of genetic learning in such systems are provided. The usefulness of such results is illustrated by many simulations in evolutionary games and economic models.
Author : Kofi Kissi Dompere
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3540880879
Total Pages : 311 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (48 download)
Download or read book Fuzziness and Approximate Reasoning written by Kofi Kissi Dompere and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-07-28 with total page 311 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We do not perceive the present as it is and in totality, nor do we infer the future from the present with any high degree of dependability, nor yet do we accurately know the consequences of our own actions. In addition, there is a fourth source of error to be taken into account, for we do not execute actions in the precise form in which they are imaged and willed. Frank H. Knight [R4.34, p. 202] The “degree” of certainty of confidence felt in the conclusion after it is reached cannot be ignored, for it is of the greatest practical signi- cance. The action which follows upon an opinion depends as much upon the amount of confidence in that opinion as it does upon fav- ableness of the opinion itself. The ultimate logic, or psychology, of these deliberations is obscure, a part of the scientifically unfathomable mystery of life and mind. Frank H. Knight [R4.34, p. 226-227] With some inaccuracy, description of uncertain consequences can be classified into two categories, those which use exclusively the language of probability distributions and those which call for some other principle, either to replace or supplement.
