J M Keynes's Non (Sub) Additive, Interval Valued Approach to Probability is the Foundation for Both Keynes's Weight of the Evidence Analysis in the A Treatise on Probability and His Uncertainty Definition in the General Theory

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 25 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis J M Keynes's Non (Sub) Additive, Interval Valued Approach to Probability is the Foundation for Both Keynes's Weight of the Evidence Analysis in the A Treatise on Probability and His Uncertainty Definition in the General Theory by : Michael Emmett Brady

Download or read book J M Keynes's Non (Sub) Additive, Interval Valued Approach to Probability is the Foundation for Both Keynes's Weight of the Evidence Analysis in the A Treatise on Probability and His Uncertainty Definition in the General Theory written by Michael Emmett Brady and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is a straight forward exercise to demonstrate that the concept of the weight of the evidence in the A Treatise on Probability and the concept of uncertainty in the General Theory both follow directly from Keynes's analysis and application of Boole's development of the concept of upper and lower probabilities in The Laws of Thought in 1854 in Part II of the A Treatise on Probability.This demonstration shows that both GLS Shackle's definition of uncertainty and Paul Davidson's definition of uncertainty, not only have nothing to do with the work of J M Keynes, but are directly in conflict with it. Neither the Shackle or the Davidson approaches can deal with interval valued probability. Shackle and Davidson can only deal with numerical probabilities based on the limiting frequency interpretation of probability.

Foundations of Risk Analysis

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470871237
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (78 download)

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Book Synopsis Foundations of Risk Analysis by : Terje Aven

Download or read book Foundations of Risk Analysis written by Terje Aven and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2004-01-09 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyse, communicate and control the level of risk entailed by these decisions remains one of the most pressing challenges to the analyst, scientist and manager. This book presents the foundational issues in risk analysis ? expressing risk, understanding what risk means, building risk models, addressing uncertainty, and applying probability models to real problems. The principal aim of the book is to give the reader the knowledge and basic thinking they require to approach risk and uncertainty to support decision making. Presents a statistical framework for dealing with risk and uncertainty. Includes detailed coverage of building and applying risk models and methods. Offers new perspectives on risk, risk assessment and the use of parametric probability models. Highlights a number of applications from business and industry. Adopts a conceptual approach based on elementary probability calculus and statistical theory. Foundations of Risk Analysis provides a framework for understanding, conducting and using risk analysis suitable for advanced undergraduates, graduates, analysts and researchers from statistics, engineering, finance, medicine and the physical sciences, as well as for managers facing decision making problems involving risk and uncertainty.

The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (17 download)

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Book Synopsis The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money by : John Maynard Keynes

Download or read book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money written by John Maynard Keynes and published by . This book was released on 1989 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Probability and the Weighing of Evidence

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Publisher : Hassell Street Press
ISBN 13 : 9781013791796
Total Pages : 136 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (917 download)

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Book Synopsis Probability and the Weighing of Evidence by : Isidore Jacob Good

Download or read book Probability and the Weighing of Evidence written by Isidore Jacob Good and published by Hassell Street Press. This book was released on 2021-09-09 with total page 136 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This work has been selected by scholars as being culturally important and is part of the knowledge base of civilization as we know it. This work is in the public domain in the United States of America, and possibly other nations. Within the United States, you may freely copy and distribute this work, as no entity (individual or corporate) has a copyright on the body of the work. Scholars believe, and we concur, that this work is important enough to be preserved, reproduced, and made generally available to the public. To ensure a quality reading experience, this work has been proofread and republished using a format that seamlessly blends the original graphical elements with text in an easy-to-read typeface. We appreciate your support of the preservation process, and thank you for being an important part of keeping this knowledge alive and relevant.

Data Analysis

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Publisher : OUP Oxford
ISBN 13 : 0191546704
Total Pages : 259 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (915 download)

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Book Synopsis Data Analysis by : Devinderjit Sivia

Download or read book Data Analysis written by Devinderjit Sivia and published by OUP Oxford. This book was released on 2006-06-02 with total page 259 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: One of the strengths of this book is the author's ability to motivate the use of Bayesian methods through simple yet effective examples. - Katie St. Clair MAA Reviews.

Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty

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Publisher : Newnes
ISBN 13 : 0444536868
Total Pages : 897 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (445 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty by : Mark Machina

Download or read book Handbook of the Economics of Risk and Uncertainty written by Mark Machina and published by Newnes. This book was released on 2013-11-14 with total page 897 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The need to understand the theories and applications of economic and finance risk has been clear to everyone since the financial crisis, and this collection of original essays proffers broad, high-level explanations of risk and uncertainty. The economics of risk and uncertainty is unlike most branches of economics in spanning from the individual decision-maker to the market (and indeed, social decisions), and ranging from purely theoretical analysis through individual experimentation, empirical analysis, and applied and policy decisions. It also has close and sometimes conflicting relationships with theoretical and applied statistics, and psychology. The aim of this volume is to provide an overview of diverse aspects of this field, ranging from classical and foundational work through current developments. Presents coherent summaries of risk and uncertainty that inform major areas in economics and finance Divides coverage between theoretical, empirical, and experimental findings Makes the economics of risk and uncertainty accessible to scholars in fields outside economics

Post Keynesian Econometrics, Microeconomics and the Theory of the Firm

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Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 296 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Post Keynesian Econometrics, Microeconomics and the Theory of the Firm by : Sheila C. Dow

Download or read book Post Keynesian Econometrics, Microeconomics and the Theory of the Firm written by Sheila C. Dow and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2002 with total page 296 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: While the first conference (1993) focused on methodological issues, the 13 papers of the second are more concerned with developments in theory, empirical work, and policy questions as they seek to carry on the insights of economist John Maynard Keynes into and through the 1990s. Among the themes are the relationship between microeconomic and macroeconomic levels, uncertainty and its implications for individual behavior as it underpins macroeconomic behavior, and applying post- Keynesian theory to policy questions particularly in the international arena. The proceedings of the first conference were published under a separate title, and this series begins Volume One with the second conference. Annotation copyrighted by Book News, Inc., Portland, OR

Hume's Problem

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Publisher : Oxford University Press
ISBN 13 : 0198250371
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (982 download)

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Book Synopsis Hume's Problem by : Colin Howson

Download or read book Hume's Problem written by Colin Howson and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume offers a solution to one of the central, unsolved problems of Western philosophy, that of induction. It explores the implications of Hume's argument that successful prediction tells us nothing about the truth of the predicting theory.

A Treatise on Probability

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 494 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis A Treatise on Probability by : John Maynard Keynes

Download or read book A Treatise on Probability written by John Maynard Keynes and published by . This book was released on 1921 with total page 494 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Bayes Or Bust?

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Publisher : Bradford Books
ISBN 13 : 9780262050463
Total Pages : 272 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (54 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayes Or Bust? by : John Earman

Download or read book Bayes Or Bust? written by John Earman and published by Bradford Books. This book was released on 1992 with total page 272 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is currently no viable alternative to the Bayesian analysis of scientific inference, yet the available versions of Bayesianism fail to do justice to several aspects of the testing and confirmation of scientific hypotheses. Bayes or Bust? provides the first balanced treatment of the complex set of issues involved in this nagging conundrum in the philosophy of science. Both Bayesians and anti-Bayesians will find a wealth of new insights on topics ranging from Bayes's original paper to contemporary formal learning theory. In a paper published posthumously in 1763, the Reverend Thomas Bayes made a seminal contribution to the understanding of "analogical or inductive reasoning." Building on his insights, modem Bayesians have developed an account of scientific inference that has attracted numerous champions as well as numerous detractors. Earman argues that Bayesianism provides the best hope for a comprehensive and unified account of scientific inference, yet the presently available versions of Bayesianisin fail to do justice to several aspects of the testing and confirming of scientific theories and hypotheses. By focusing on the need for a resolution to this impasse, Earman sharpens the issues on which a resolution turns. John Earman is Professor of History and Philosophy of Science at the University of Pittsburgh.

Rational Decisions

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400833094
Total Pages : 214 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Rational Decisions by : Ken Binmore

Download or read book Rational Decisions written by Ken Binmore and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2008-12-29 with total page 214 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to "look before you leap." If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics, Rational Decisions clearly explains the foundations of Bayesian decision theory and shows why Savage restricted the theory's application to small worlds. The book is a wide-ranging exploration of standard theories of choice and belief under risk and uncertainty. Ken Binmore discusses the various philosophical attitudes related to the nature of probability and offers resolutions to paradoxes believed to hinder further progress. In arguing that the Bayesian approach to knowledge is inadequate in a large world, Binmore proposes an extension to Bayesian decision theory--allowing the idea of a mixed strategy in game theory to be expanded to a larger set of what Binmore refers to as "muddled" strategies. Written by one of the world's leading game theorists, Rational Decisions is the touchstone for anyone needing a concise, accessible, and expert view on Bayesian decision making.

The WEIRDest People in the World

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Publisher : Farrar, Straus and Giroux
ISBN 13 : 0374710457
Total Pages : 420 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (747 download)

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Book Synopsis The WEIRDest People in the World by : Joseph Henrich

Download or read book The WEIRDest People in the World written by Joseph Henrich and published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux. This book was released on 2020-09-08 with total page 420 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A New York Times Notable Book of 2020 A Bloomberg Best Non-Fiction Book of 2020 A Behavioral Scientist Notable Book of 2020 A Human Behavior & Evolution Society Must-Read Popular Evolution Book of 2020 A bold, epic account of how the co-evolution of psychology and culture created the peculiar Western mind that has profoundly shaped the modern world. Perhaps you are WEIRD: raised in a society that is Western, Educated, Industrialized, Rich, and Democratic. If so, you’re rather psychologically peculiar. Unlike much of the world today, and most people who have ever lived, WEIRD people are highly individualistic, self-obsessed, control-oriented, nonconformist, and analytical. They focus on themselves—their attributes, accomplishments, and aspirations—over their relationships and social roles. How did WEIRD populations become so psychologically distinct? What role did these psychological differences play in the industrial revolution and the global expansion of Europe during the last few centuries? In The WEIRDest People in the World, Joseph Henrich draws on cutting-edge research in anthropology, psychology, economics, and evolutionary biology to explore these questions and more. He illuminates the origins and evolution of family structures, marriage, and religion, and the profound impact these cultural transformations had on human psychology. Mapping these shifts through ancient history and late antiquity, Henrich reveals that the most fundamental institutions of kinship and marriage changed dramatically under pressure from the Roman Catholic Church. It was these changes that gave rise to the WEIRD psychology that would coevolve with impersonal markets, occupational specialization, and free competition—laying the foundation for the modern world. Provocative and engaging in both its broad scope and its surprising details, The WEIRDest People in the World explores how culture, institutions, and psychology shape one another, and explains what this means for both our most personal sense of who we are as individuals and also the large-scale social, political, and economic forces that drive human history. Includes black-and-white illustrations.

Bayesian Theory

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 586 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (12 download)

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Book Synopsis Bayesian Theory by : José Miguel Bernardo

Download or read book Bayesian Theory written by José Miguel Bernardo and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 586 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them)

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 1118211278
Total Pages : 231 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (182 download)

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Book Synopsis Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them) by : Phillip I. Good

Download or read book Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them) written by Phillip I. Good and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2011-09-20 with total page 231 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Praise for the Second Edition "All statistics students and teachers will find in this book a friendly and intelligentguide to . . . applied statistics in practice." —Journal of Applied Statistics ". . . a very engaging and valuable book for all who use statistics in any setting." —CHOICE ". . . a concise guide to the basics of statistics, replete with examples . . . a valuablereference for more advanced statisticians as well." —MAA Reviews Now in its Third Edition, the highly readable Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them) continues to serve as a thorough and straightforward discussion of basic statistical methods, presentations, approaches, and modeling techniques. Further enriched with new examples and counterexamples from the latest research as well as added coverage of relevant topics, this new edition of the benchmark book addresses popular mistakes often made in data collection and provides an indispensable guide to accurate statistical analysis and reporting. The authors' emphasis on careful practice, combined with a focus on the development of solutions, reveals the true value of statistics when applied correctly in any area of research. The Third Edition has been considerably expanded and revised to include: A new chapter on data quality assessment A new chapter on correlated data An expanded chapter on data analysis covering categorical and ordinal data, continuous measurements, and time-to-event data, including sections on factorial and crossover designs Revamped exercises with a stronger emphasis on solutions An extended chapter on report preparation New sections on factor analysis as well as Poisson and negative binomial regression Providing valuable, up-to-date information in the same user-friendly format as its predecessor, Common Errors in Statistics (and How to Avoid Them), Third Edition is an excellent book for students and professionals in industry, government, medicine, and the social sciences.

The Purchasing Power of Money

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 558 pages
Book Rating : 4.F/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis The Purchasing Power of Money by : Irving Fisher

Download or read book The Purchasing Power of Money written by Irving Fisher and published by . This book was released on 1911 with total page 558 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

The Taming of Chance

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Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 9780521388849
Total Pages : 282 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (888 download)

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Book Synopsis The Taming of Chance by : Ian Hacking

Download or read book The Taming of Chance written by Ian Hacking and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 1990-08-31 with total page 282 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book combines detailed scientific historical research with characteristic philosophic breadth and verve.

Uncertainty and Risk

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Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 9783642080296
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (82 download)

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Book Synopsis Uncertainty and Risk by : Mohammed Abdellaoui

Download or read book Uncertainty and Risk written by Mohammed Abdellaoui and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-11-30 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book tries to sort out the different meanings of uncertainty and to discover their foundations. It shows that uncertainty can be represented using various tools and mental guidelines. Coverage also examines alternative ways to deal with risk and risk attitude concepts. Behavior under uncertainty emerges from this book as something to base more on inquiry and reflection rather than on mere intuition.