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Intraday Volatility Forecast In Australian Equity Market
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Book Synopsis Intraday Volatility Forecast in Australian Equity Market by : Abhay Kumar Singh
Download or read book Intraday Volatility Forecast in Australian Equity Market written by Abhay Kumar Singh and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 7 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the afternoon of May 6, 2010 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plunged about 1000 points (about 9%) in a matter of minutes before rebounding almost as quickly. This was the biggest one day point decline on an intraday basis in the DJIA's history. An almost similar dramatic change in intraday volatility was observed on April 4, 2000 when DJIA dropped by 4.8%. These historical events present very compelling argument for the need of robust econometrics models which can forecast intraday asset volatility. There are numerous models available in the finance literature to model financial asset volatility. Various Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) time series models are widely used for modelling daily (end of day) volatility of the financial assets. The family of basic GARCH models work well for modelling daily volatility but they are proven to be not as efficient for intraday volatility. The last two decades has seen some research augmenting the GARCH family of models to forecast intraday volatility, the Multiplicative Component GARCH (MCGARCH) model of Engle & Sokalska (2012) is the most recent of them. MCGARCH models the conditional variance as the multiplicative product of daily, diurnal, and stochastic intraday volatility of the financial asset. In this paper we use MCGARCH model to forecast intraday volatility of Australia's S&P/ASX-50 stock market, we also use the model to forecast the intraday Value at Risk. As the model requires a daily volatility component, we test a GARCH based estimate and a Realized Variance based estimate of daily volatility component.
Book Synopsis Modelling the Intraday Return of Volatility Process in the Australian Equity Market by : Andrew Worthington
Download or read book Modelling the Intraday Return of Volatility Process in the Australian Equity Market written by Andrew Worthington and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 14 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "The data set employed consists of five-minute returns, trading volumes at bid-ask spreads over the period 31 December 2002 to 4 March 2003 for the fifty national and multinational stocks comprising the S&P/ASX 50 index." --p. 1.
Book Synopsis Modelling and Forecasting Intraday Market Risk with Application to Stock Indices by : Abhay Kumar Singh
Download or read book Modelling and Forecasting Intraday Market Risk with Application to Stock Indices written by Abhay Kumar Singh and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: On the afternoon of May 6, 2010 the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plunged about 1000 points (about 9%) in a matter of minutes before rebounding almost as quickly. This was the biggest one day point decline on an intraday basis in the DJIA's history. An almost similar dramatic change in intraday volatility was observed on April 4, 2000 when the DJIA dropped by 4.8%. These historical events present a very compelling argument for the need for robust econometrics models which can forecast intraday asset volatility. There are numerous models available in the finance literature to model financial asset volatility. Various Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) time series models are widely used for modelling daily (end of day) volatility of the financial assets. The family of basic GARCH models works well for modelling daily volatility but they are proven to be not as efficient for intraday volatility. The last two decades have seen some research augmenting the GARCH family of models to forecast intraday volatility, the Multiplicative Component GARCH (MCGARCH) model of Engle & Sokalska (2012) being the most recent of them. MCGARCH models the conditional variance as the multiplicative product of daily, diurnal, and stochastic intraday volatility of the financial asset. In this paper we use the MCGARCH model to forecast the intraday volatility of Australia's S&P/ASX-50 stock market index and the USA Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) stock market index. We also use the model to forecast their intraday Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). As the model requires a daily volatility component, we test a GARCH based estimate of the daily volatility component against the daily realized volatility (RV) estimates obtained from the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model for Realized Volatility (HARRV). The results in the paper show that 1 minute VaR forecasts obtained from the MCGARCH model using the HARRV based daily volatility component outperform the ones obtained using the GARCH based daily volatility component.
Book Synopsis Analysing Intraday Implied Volatility for Pricing Currency Options by : Thi Le
Download or read book Analysing Intraday Implied Volatility for Pricing Currency Options written by Thi Le and published by Springer Nature. This book was released on 2021-04-13 with total page 350 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book focuses on the impact of high-frequency data in forecasting market volatility and options price. New technologies have created opportunities to obtain better, faster, and more efficient datasets to explore financial market phenomena at the most acceptable data levels. It provides reliable intraday data supporting financial investment decisions across different assets classes and instruments consisting of commodities, derivatives, equities, fixed income and foreign exchange. This book emphasises four key areas, (1) estimating intraday implied volatility using ultra-high frequency (5-minutes frequency) currency options to capture traders' trading behaviour, (2) computing realised volatility based on 5-minute frequency currency price to obtain speculators' speculation attitude, (3) examining the ability of implied volatility to subsume market information through forecasting realised volatility and (4) evaluating the predictive power of implied volatility for pricing currency options. This is a must-read for academics and professionals who want to improve their skills and outcomes in trading options.
Book Synopsis The Information Content of Implied Volatility by : Bart Frijns
Download or read book The Information Content of Implied Volatility written by Bart Frijns and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 38 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In this paper we develop and evaluate the information content of an implied volatility index for the Australian stock market. Using price data on Samp;P/ASX 200 index options and SFE SPI 200 index futures options, we develop implied volatility indices with a time to maturity of three months and one month, respectively. When evaluating the information content of both implied volatility indices we find that the implied volatility index based on the Samp;P/ASX 200 index options with a three-month horizon is most informative in terms of explaining stock market returns and forecasting future volatility. For this implied volatility index we find a significant negative and asymmetric relationship between changes in implied volatility and Samp;P/ASX 200 returns, i.e., stock market prices decline more when implied volatility increases than they increase when implied volatility drops. When evaluating the forecasting power of implied volatility for future market volatility we find that the implied volatility index based on the Samp;P/ASX 200 index options contains important information both insample and out-of-sample. In-sample, the implied volatility index significantly improves the fit of a GJR-GARCH(1, 1) model. Out-of-sample, we find that the implied volatility index significantly outperforms the RiskMetrics and GJR-GARCH(1, 1) model, with its highest forecasting power at the one-month forecasting horizon.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Stock Volatility by : Xingyi Li
Download or read book Forecasting Stock Volatility written by Xingyi Li and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: There is evidence that volatility forecasting models that use intraday data provide better forecast accuracy as compared with that delivered by the models that use daily data. Exactly how much better is still unknown. The present paper fills this gap in the literature and extends previous studies on forecasting stock market volatility in several important directions. First, we employ an extensive set of intraday data on 31 individual stocks over a sample period of 19 years. Second, we use forecast horizons ranging from 1 day to 6 months. Third, we evaluate the precision of volatility forecast provided by various competing models. Fourth, we conduct several robustness checks to assess the sensitivity of our results to various alternative choices. The major finding of our empirical study is that the gains from using intraday data are rather significant and persist over longer forecast horizons. Depending on the forecast horizon, the improvement in forecast precision varies from 30 to 50 percent. We demonstrate that our main results on the forecast accuracy gains are robust to the choice of intraday data frequency and the choice of measure of realized daily volatility.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications by : Luc Bauwens
Download or read book Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications written by Luc Bauwens and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2012-03-22 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Book Synopsis Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction by : Stephen J. Taylor
Download or read book Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction written by Stephen J. Taylor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2011-02-11 with total page 544 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book shows how current and recent market prices convey information about the probability distributions that govern future prices. Moving beyond purely theoretical models, Stephen Taylor applies methods supported by empirical research of equity and foreign exchange markets to show how daily and more frequent asset prices, and the prices of option contracts, can be used to construct and assess predictions about future prices, their volatility, and their probability distributions. Stephen Taylor provides a comprehensive introduction to the dynamic behavior of asset prices, relying on finance theory and statistical evidence. He uses stochastic processes to define mathematical models for price dynamics, but with less mathematics than in alternative texts. The key topics covered include random walk tests, trading rules, ARCH models, stochastic volatility models, high-frequency datasets, and the information that option prices imply about volatility and distributions. Asset Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Prediction is ideal for students of economics, finance, and mathematics who are studying financial econometrics, and will enable researchers to identify and apply appropriate models and methods. It will likewise be a valuable resource for quantitative analysts, fund managers, risk managers, and investors who seek realistic expectations about future asset prices and the risks to which they are exposed.
Book Synopsis The Intraday Effect of Public Information by : Calum Stewart Robertson
Download or read book The Intraday Effect of Public Information written by Calum Stewart Robertson and published by . This book was released on 2007 with total page 27 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The efficient market hypothesis states that an efficient market incorporates all available information to provide an accurate valuation of an asset at any given time. Most trading models rely only on numerical information such as return, volatility, and volume to forecast the value of an asset. However, the market is also influenced by the occurrence of textual information in the form of analyst recommendations, annual reports, macroeconomic news, and press announcements. A plethora of research has analysed how markets react to macroeconomic news both intraday and in the longer term. However, asset specific news is far more common than macroeconomic news and little research has evaluated the intraday market reaction to this type of news. In this paper we analyse how assets on the US, UK and Australian stock markets react after news deemed relevant by the Bloomberg Professionalreg; service has been released. To our knowledge this is the most comprehensive evaluation of the intraday effect of asset specific news on the stock market. We find strong evidence that these markets react quickly and decisively to asset specific news throughout the day. We also find evidence of intraday seasonality's in these markets, which effect the markets reaction to news.
Book Synopsis Forecasting the Volatility of Australian Stock Returns by :
Download or read book Forecasting the Volatility of Australian Stock Returns written by and published by . This book was released on 2005 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets by : Eugenie M.J.H. Hol
Download or read book Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets written by Eugenie M.J.H. Hol and published by Springer. This book was released on 2010-11-19 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Empirical Studies on Volatility in International Stock Markets describes the existing techniques for the measurement and estimation of volatility in international stock markets with emphasis on the SV model and its empirical application. Eugenie Hol develops various extensions of the SV model, which allow for additional variables in both the mean and the variance equation. In addition, the forecasting performance of SV models is compared not only to that of the well-established GARCH model but also to implied volatility and so-called realised volatility models which are based on intraday volatility measures. The intended readers are financial professionals who seek to obtain more accurate volatility forecasts and wish to gain insight about state-of-the-art volatility modelling techniques and their empirical value, and academic researchers and students who are interested in financial market volatility and want to obtain an updated overview of the various methods available in this area.
Book Synopsis Public Information Arrival and Volatility of Intraday Stock Returns by : Petko S. Kalev
Download or read book Public Information Arrival and Volatility of Intraday Stock Returns written by Petko S. Kalev and published by . This book was released on 2014 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study employs firm-specific announcements as a proxy for information flows and investigates the information-volatility relation using high-frequency data from the Australian Stock Exchange. Our analysis reveals a positive and significant impact of the arrival rate of the selected news variable on the conditional variance of stock returns, even after controlling for the potential effects of trading volume and high opening volatility. Furthermore, the inclusion of the news variable in the conditional variance equation of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic model also reduces volatility persistence, especially with intraday data. Combined with the evidence that news arrivals display a very strong pattern of autocorrelation, our results are consistent with the Mixture of Distribution Hypothesis, which attributes conditional heteroscedasticity of stock returns to time-dependence in the news arrival process.
Book Synopsis Forecasting Daily Stock Volatility by : Ana-Maria Fuertes
Download or read book Forecasting Daily Stock Volatility written by Ana-Maria Fuertes and published by . This book was released on 2013 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Several recent studies advocate the use of nonparametric estimators of daily price variability that exploit intraday information. This paper compares four such estimators, realised volatility, realised range, realised power variation and realised bipower variation, by examining their in-sample distributional properties and out-of-sample forecast ranking when the object of interest is the conventional conditional variance. The analysis is based on a 7-year sample of transaction prices for 14 NYSE stocks. The forecast race is conducted in a GARCH framework and relies on several loss functions. The realized range fares relatively well in the in-sample fit analysis, for instance, regarding the extent to which it brings normality in returns. However, overall the realised power variation provides the most accurate 1-day-ahead forecasts. Forecast combination of all four intraday measures produces the smallest forecast errors in about half of the sampled stocks. A market conditions analysis reveals that the additional use of intraday data on day t-1 to forecast volatility on day t is most advantageous when day t is a low volume or an up-market day. The results have implications for value-at-risk analysis.
Book Synopsis A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility by : Ser-Huang Poon
Download or read book A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility written by Ser-Huang Poon and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-08-19 with total page 236 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Financial market volatility forecasting is one of today's most important areas of expertise for professionals and academics in investment, option pricing, and financial market regulation. While many books address financial market modelling, no single book is devoted primarily to the exploration of volatility forecasting and the practical use of forecasting models. A Practical Guide to Forecasting Financial Market Volatility provides practical guidance on this vital topic through an in-depth examination of a range of popular forecasting models. Details are provided on proven techniques for building volatility models, with guide-lines for actually using them in forecasting applications.
Book Synopsis Trading Volume, Realized Volatility and Jumps on the Australian Stock Market by : Hassan Shahzad
Download or read book Trading Volume, Realized Volatility and Jumps on the Australian Stock Market written by Hassan Shahzad and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 33 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We study the volume-volatility relation by splitting volume into the number of trades and the average trade size at individual and institutional level, and realized volatility into its continuous and jump components. We find that the number of trades is the most important variable driving realized volatility. The number of trades by the individual investors carries more explanatory power in explaining volatility compared to the number of trades by institutional investors. The average trade size cannot be entirely disregarded, though; its importance compared to the number of trades is limited. Order imbalance plays a minimal role in driving volatility.
Book Synopsis An Analysis of Intraday Volatility in the Stock Market by : Steven Jeffrey Medina
Download or read book An Analysis of Intraday Volatility in the Stock Market written by Steven Jeffrey Medina and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 142 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Financial Accounting and Equity Markets by : Philip Brown
Download or read book Financial Accounting and Equity Markets written by Philip Brown and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2013-06-19 with total page 443 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Philip Brown is one of the most admired and respected accounting academics alive today. He was a pioneer in capital markets research in accounting, and his 1968 article, co-authored with Ray Ball, "An Empirical Evaluation of Accounting Income Numbers," arguably had a greater impact on the course of accounting research, directly and indirectly, than any other article during the second half of the twentieth century. Since that time, his innovative research has focused on issues that bridge accounting and finance, including the relationships between net profit reports and the stock market, the long-run performance of acquiring firms, statutory sanctions and voluntary corporate disclosure, and the politics and future of national accounting standards to name a few. This volume brings together the greatest hits of Brown’s career, including several articles that were published in out-of-the-way places, for easier use by students and researchers in the field. With a foreword written by Stephen A. Zeff, and an introduction that discusses the evolution of Brown’s research interests and explains the context for each of the essays included in the volume, this book offers the reader a unique look inside this remarkable 50-year career.
