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Interpreting Long Horizon Estimates In Predictive Regressions
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Book Synopsis Interpreting Long-horizon Estimates in Predictive Regressions by : Erik Hjalmarsson
Download or read book Interpreting Long-horizon Estimates in Predictive Regressions written by Erik Hjalmarsson and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper analyzes the asymptotic properties of long-horizon estimators under both the null hypothesis and an alternative of predictability. Asymptotically, under the null of no predictability, the long-run estimator is an increasing deterministic function of the short-run estimate and the forecasting horizon. Under the alternative of predictability, the conditional distribution of the long-run estimator, given the short-run estimate, is no longer degenerate and the expected pattern of coefficient estimates across horizons differs from that under the null. Importantly, however, under the alternative, highly endogenous regressors, such as the dividend-price ratio, tend to deviate much less than exogenous regressors, such as the short interest rate, from the pattern expected under the null, making it more difficult to distinguish between the null and the alternative.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Financial Econometrics by : Yacine Ait-Sahalia
Download or read book Handbook of Financial Econometrics written by Yacine Ait-Sahalia and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2009-10-19 with total page 809 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This collection of original articles—8 years in the making—shines a bright light on recent advances in financial econometrics. From a survey of mathematical and statistical tools for understanding nonlinear Markov processes to an exploration of the time-series evolution of the risk-return tradeoff for stock market investment, noted scholars Yacine Aït-Sahalia and Lars Peter Hansen benchmark the current state of knowledge while contributors build a framework for its growth. Whether in the presence of statistical uncertainty or the proven advantages and limitations of value at risk models, readers will discover that they can set few constraints on the value of this long-awaited volume. - Presents a broad survey of current research—from local characterizations of the Markov process dynamics to financial market trading activity - Contributors include Nobel Laureate Robert Engle and leading econometricians - Offers a clarity of method and explanation unavailable in other financial econometrics collections
Book Synopsis Monetary Economics in Globalised Financial Markets by : Ansgar Belke
Download or read book Monetary Economics in Globalised Financial Markets written by Ansgar Belke and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2011-06-14 with total page 833 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book integrates the fundamentals of monetary theory, monetary policy theory and financial market theory, providing an accessible introduction to the workings and interactions of globalised financial markets. Includes examples and extensive data analyses.
Book Synopsis Confidence Intervals for Long-horizon Predictive Regressions Via Reverse Regressions by : Min Wei
Download or read book Confidence Intervals for Long-horizon Predictive Regressions Via Reverse Regressions written by Min Wei and published by . This book was released on 2009 with total page 46 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Simple Monetary Rules Under Fiscal Dominance by : Michael Kumhof
Download or read book Simple Monetary Rules Under Fiscal Dominance written by Michael Kumhof and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper asks whether an aggressive monetary policy response to inflation is feasible in countries that suffer from fiscal dominance, as long as monetary policy also responds to fiscal variables. We find that if nominal interest rates are allowed to respond to government debt, even aggressive rules that satisfy the Taylor principle can produce unique equilibria. But following such rules results in extremely volatile inflation. This leads to very frequent violations of the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates that make such rules infeasible. Even within the set of feasible rules the optimal response to inflation is highly negative, and more aggressive inflation fighting is inferior from a welfare point of view. The welfare gain from responding to fiscal variables is minimal compared to the gain from eliminating fiscal dominance.
Book Synopsis Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics by : Terence C. Mills
Download or read book Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics written by Terence C. Mills and published by Springer. This book was released on 2009-06-25 with total page 1406 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Following theseminal Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics: Volume I , this second volume brings together the finestacademicsworking in econometrics today andexploresapplied econometrics, containing contributions onsubjects includinggrowth/development econometrics and applied econometrics and computing.
Book Synopsis International Finance Discussion Papers by :
Download or read book International Finance Discussion Papers written by and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Predicting Global Stock Returns by : Erik Hjalmarsson
Download or read book Predicting Global Stock Returns written by Erik Hjalmarsson and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: I test for stock return predictability in the largest and most comprehensive data set analyzed so far, using four common forecasting variables: the dividend- and earnings-price ratios, the short interest rate, and the term spread. The data contain over 20,000 monthly observations from 40 international markets, including 24 developed and 16 emerging economies. In addition, I develop new methods for predictive regressions with panel data. Inference based on the standard fixed effects estimator is shown to suffer from severe size distortions in the typical stock return regression, and an alternative robust estimator is proposed. The empirical results indicate that the short interest rate and the term spread are fairly robust predictors of stock returns in developed markets. In contrast, no strong or consistent evidence of predictability is found when considering the earnings- and dividend-price ratios as predictors.
Book Synopsis Optimal Monetary Policy with Distinct Core and Headline Inflation Rates by : Martin Bodenstein
Download or read book Optimal Monetary Policy with Distinct Core and Headline Inflation Rates written by Martin Bodenstein and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 56 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: "In a stylized DSGE model with an energy sector, the optimal policy response to an adverse energy supply shock implies a rise in core inflation, a larger rise in headline inflation, and a decline in wage inflation. The optimal policy is well-approximated by policies that stabilize the output gap, but also by a wide array of "dual mandate" policies that are not overly aggressive in stabilizing core inflation. Finally, policies that react to a forecast of headline inflation following a temporary energy shock imply markedly different effects than policies that react to a forecast of core, with the former inducing greater volatility in core inflation and the output gap"--Federal Reserve Board web site.
Book Synopsis An Anatomy of Credit Booms by : Enrique G. Mendoza
Download or read book An Anatomy of Credit Booms written by Enrique G. Mendoza and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 72 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper proposes a methodology for measuring credit booms and uses it to identify credit booms in emerging and industrial economies over the past four decades. In addition, we use event study methods to identify the key empirical regularities of credit booms in macroeconomic aggregates and micro-level data. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations, widening external deficits and managed exchange rates. Micro data show a strong association between credit booms and firm-level measures of leverage, firm values, and external financing, and bank-level indicators of banking fragility. Credit booms in industrial and emerging economies show three major differences: (1) credit booms and the macro and micro fluctuations associated with them are larger in emerging economies, particularly in the nontradables sector; (2) not all credit booms end in financial crises, but most emerging markets crises were associated with credit booms; and (3) credit booms in emerging economies are often preceded by large capital inflows but not by financial reforms or productivity gains.
Book Synopsis Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2013-08-23 with total page 667 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The highly prized ability to make financial plans with some certainty about the future comes from the core fields of economics. In recent years the availability of more data, analytical tools of greater precision, and ex post studies of business decisions have increased demand for information about economic forecasting. Volumes 2A and 2B, which follows Nobel laureate Clive Granger's Volume 1 (2006), concentrate on two major subjects. Volume 2A covers innovations in methodologies, specifically macroforecasting and forecasting financial variables. Volume 2B investigates commercial applications, with sections on forecasters' objectives and methodologies. Experts provide surveys of a large range of literature scattered across applied and theoretical statistics journals as well as econometrics and empirical economics journals. The Handbook of Economic Forecasting Volumes 2A and 2B provide a unique compilation of chapters giving a coherent overview of forecasting theory and applications in one place and with up-to-date accounts of all major conceptual issues. - Focuses on innovation in economic forecasting via industry applications - Presents coherent summaries of subjects in economic forecasting that stretch from methodologies to applications - Makes details about economic forecasting accessible to scholars in fields outside economics
Download or read book Working Paper Series written by and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 580 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Book Synopsis Economic Forecasting by : Graham Elliott
Download or read book Economic Forecasting written by Graham Elliott and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-04-05 with total page 566 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: A comprehensive and integrated approach to economic forecasting problems Economic forecasting involves choosing simple yet robust models to best approximate highly complex and evolving data-generating processes. This poses unique challenges for researchers in a host of practical forecasting situations, from forecasting budget deficits and assessing financial risk to predicting inflation and stock market returns. Economic Forecasting presents a comprehensive, unified approach to assessing the costs and benefits of different methods currently available to forecasters. This text approaches forecasting problems from the perspective of decision theory and estimation, and demonstrates the profound implications of this approach for how we understand variable selection, estimation, and combination methods for forecasting models, and how we evaluate the resulting forecasts. Both Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods are covered in depth, as are a range of cutting-edge techniques for producing point, interval, and density forecasts. The book features detailed presentations and empirical examples of a range of forecasting methods and shows how to generate forecasts in the presence of large-dimensional sets of predictor variables. The authors pay special attention to how estimation error, model uncertainty, and model instability affect forecasting performance. Presents a comprehensive and integrated approach to assessing the strengths and weaknesses of different forecasting methods Approaches forecasting from a decision theoretic and estimation perspective Covers Bayesian modeling, including methods for generating density forecasts Discusses model selection methods as well as forecast combinations Covers a large range of nonlinear prediction models, including regime switching models, threshold autoregressions, and models with time-varying volatility Features numerous empirical examples Examines the latest advances in forecast evaluation Essential for practitioners and students alike
Book Synopsis Jackknifing Stock Return Predictions by : Benjamin Chiquoine
Download or read book Jackknifing Stock Return Predictions written by Benjamin Chiquoine and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 34 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We show that the general bias reducing technique of jackknifing can be successfully applied to stock return predictability regressions. Compared to standard OLS estimation, the jackknifing procedure delivers virtually unbiased estimates with mean squared errors that generally dominate those of the OLS estimates. The jackknifing method is very general, as well as simple to implement, and can be applied to models with multiple predictors and overlapping observations. Unlike most previous work on inference in predictive regressions, no specific assumptions regarding the data generating process for the predictors are required. A set of Monte Carlo experiments show that the method works well in finite samples and the empirical section finds that out-of-sample forecasts based on the jackknifed estimates tend to outperform those based on the plain OLS estimates. The improved forecast ability also translates into economically relevant welfare gains for an investor who uses the predictive regression, with jackknifed estimates, to time the market.
Book Synopsis The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting by : Michael P. Clements
Download or read book The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting written by Michael P. Clements and published by OUP USA. This book was released on 2011-07-08 with total page 732 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.
Book Synopsis Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods by : Eric Ghysels
Download or read book Applied Economic Forecasting Using Time Series Methods written by Eric Ghysels and published by Oxford University Press. This book was released on 2018 with total page 617 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Economic forecasting is a key ingredient of decision making in the public and private sectors. This book provides the necessary tools to solve real-world forecasting problems using time-series methods. It targets undergraduate and graduate students as well as researchers in public and private institutions interested in applied economic forecasting.
Book Synopsis Paving the Way to Sustained Growth and Prosperity in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic by : Ms.Kimberly Beaton
Download or read book Paving the Way to Sustained Growth and Prosperity in Central America, Panama, and the Dominican Republic written by Ms.Kimberly Beaton and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 2019-09-13 with total page 308 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Accelerating economic growth in Central America, Panama and the Dominican Republic (CAPDR) remains an elusive task. While the region performed relatively well in the post-global financial crisis period, over the last five years obstacles to growth have become more evident and new challenges have emerged. In response, the region has strengthened macro-financial frameworks but more progress will be required to pave the way to sustained growth and prosperity. This book considers the structural factors underlying the region’s growth outlook and assesses its macroeconomic and financial challenges to help shape the policy agenda going forward. The book first identifies the structural determinants of growth in the region related to: capital formation; employment; demographic factors, including immigration; productivity; and violence. It then highlights the importance of creating fiscal space through the design and implementation of fiscal rules and mechanisms to increase accountability (better quality of public spending, adequate policies to reduce income inequality and sustainable retirement plans). Finally, it presents recent evidence on the importance of a supportive financial sector for growth (including through financial inclusion and development).
