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Author : Steven G. Cecchetti
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 15 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (11 download)
Download or read book Interactions Between the Season and Business Cycles in Production and Inventories written by Steven G. Cecchetti and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 15 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Stephen Giovanni Cecchetti
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 36 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book Interactions Between the Seasonal and Business Cycles in Production and Inventories written by Stephen Giovanni Cecchetti and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 36 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Stephen G. Cecchetti
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 28 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (464 download)
Download or read book Do Firms Smooth the Seasonal in Production in a Boom? written by Stephen G. Cecchetti and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 28 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Abstract: Using disaggregated production data we show that the size of seasonal cycles changes significantly over the course of the business cycle. In particular, during periods of high economy-wide activity, some industries smooth seasonal fluctuations while others exaggerate them. We interpret this finding using a simple analytical model that describes the conditions under which seasonal and cyclical fluctuations can be separated. Our model implies that seasonal fluctuations can safely be disentangled from cyclical fluctuations only when the marginal cost of production is linear, and the variation in demand and cost satisfy certain (restrictive) conditions. The model also suggests that inventory movements can be used to isolate the role of demand shifts in generating any interaction between seasonal cycles and business cycles. Thus, the empirical analysis involves studying the variation in seasonally unadjusted patterns of production and inventory accumulation over different phases of the business cycle. Our finding that seasonals shrink during booms and that firms carry more inventories into high sales seasons during a boom leads us to conclude that for several industries, marginal cost slopes up at an increasing rate. Conversely, in a couple of industries we find that seasonal swings in production are exaggerated during booms and that inventories are drawn down prior to high sales seasons, suggesting that marginal costs curves flatten as production increases. Overall, we find considerable evidence that there are non-linear interactions between business cycles and seasonal cycles.
Author : Jeffrey A. Miron
Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262133234
Total Pages : 250 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (332 download)
Download or read book The Economics of Seasonal Cycles written by Jeffrey A. Miron and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 1996 with total page 250 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Focuses on economic rather than purely statistical issues, looking at which of the alternative statistical models of seasonality are plausible for economic variables, and asking why seasonal fluctuations in economic variables require special treatment relative to other kinds of fluctuations.
Author : Robert B. Barsky
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle written by Robert B. Barsky and published by . This book was released on 1988 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Almost all recent research on macroeconomic fluctuations has worked with seasonally adjusted or annual data. This paper takes a different approach by treating seasonal fluctuations as worthy of study in their own right. We document the quantitative importance of seasonal fluctuations, and we present estimates of the seasonal patterns in a set of standard macroeconomic variables. Our results show that seasonal fluctuations are an important source of variation in all macroeconomic quantity variables but small or entirely absent in both real and nominal price variables. The timing of the seasonal fluctuations consists of increases in the second and fourth quarter, a large decrease in the first quarter, and a mild decrease in the third quarter. The paper demonstrates that, with respect to each of several major stylized facts about business cycles, the seasonal cycle displays the same characteristics as the business cycle, in some cases even more dramatically than the business cycle. That is, we find that at seasonal frequencies as well as at business cycle frequencies, output movements across broadly defined sectors move together, the timing of production and sales coincide closely, labor productivity is procyclical, nominal money and real output are highly correlated, and prices vary less than quantities. There is a "seasonal business cycle" in the United States economy, and its characteristics mirror closely those of the conventional business cycle.
Author : Jeffrey A. Miron
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 ( download)
Download or read book What Have Macroeconomists Learned about Business Cycles from the Study of Seasonal Cycles? written by Jeffrey A. Miron and published by . This book was released on 1995 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper argues that analysis of seasonal fluctuations can shed light on the nature of business cycle fluctuations. The fundamental reason is that in many instances identifying restrictions about seasonal fluctuations are more believable than analogous restrictions about non-seasonal fluctuations. We show that seasonal fluctuations provide good examples of preference shifts and synergistic equilibria. We also find evidence against production smoothing and in favor of unmeasured variation in labor and capital utilization. In some industries capacity constraints appear to bind.
Author : John B. Taylor
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 9780444501578
Total Pages : 576 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (15 download)
Download or read book Handbook of Macroeconomics written by John B. Taylor and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 1999-12-13 with total page 576 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Annotation Part 6: Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy. 19. Asset prices, consumption, and the business cycle (J.Y. Campbell). 20. Human behavior and the efficiency of the financial system (R.J. Shiller). 21. The financial accelerator in a quantitative business cycle framework (B. Bernanke, M. Gertler and S. Gilchrist). Part 7: Monetary and Fiscal Policy. 22. Political economics and macroeconomic policy (T. Persson, G. Tabellini). 23. Issues in the design of monetary policy rules (B.T. McCallum). 24. Inflation stabilization and BOP crises in developing countries (G.A. Calvo, C.A. Vegh). 25. Government debt (D.W. Elmendorf, N.G. Mankiw). 26. Optimal fiscal and monetary policy (V.V. Chari, P.J. Kehoe).
Author : Robert E. Carpenter
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (137 download)
Download or read book Seasonal Cycles, Business Cycles, and the Comovement of Inventory Investment and Output written by Robert E. Carpenter and published by . This book was released on 2010 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The importance of inventory investment in the business cycle is well known. Its role in the seasonal cycle is less well known. We examine the variation of inventory investment and its comovement with output over the seasonal and business cycles. We measure the deterministic and stochastic seasonal components of monthly disaggregated inventory data and find seasonality contributes about 75 percent of the total variance, similar to the proportion found in GDP. We find that inventory investment and output exhibit high correlation, with similar magnitudes, at seasonal and business cycle frequencies. These findings are consistent with the idea that seasonal cycles and business cycles are propagated through similar mechanisms and suggest that inventory investment may play as important a role in the seasonal cycle as it does in the business cycle.
Author : Denise R. Osborn
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 26 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (834 download)
Download or read book The Extent of Seasonal/business Cycle Interactions in European Industrial Production written by Denise R. Osborn and published by . This book was released on 2003 with total page 26 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 0521817706
Total Pages : 313 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (218 download)
Download or read book Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting written by and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on with total page 313 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Philip Hans Franses
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139952129
Total Pages : 421 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (399 download)
Download or read book Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting written by Philip Hans Franses and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2014-04-24 with total page 421 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: With a new author team contributing decades of practical experience, this fully updated and thoroughly classroom-tested second edition textbook prepares students and practitioners to create effective forecasting models and master the techniques of time series analysis. Taking a practical and example-driven approach, this textbook summarises the most critical decisions, techniques and steps involved in creating forecasting models for business and economics. Students are led through the process with an entirely new set of carefully developed theoretical and practical exercises. Chapters examine the key features of economic time series, univariate time series analysis, trends, seasonality, aberrant observations, conditional heteroskedasticity and ARCH models, non-linearity and multivariate time series, making this a complete practical guide. Downloadable datasets are available online.
Author : Mr.Eswar Prasad
Publisher : International Monetary Fund
ISBN 13 : 1451857217
Total Pages : 39 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (518 download)
Download or read book Identifying the Common Component in International Economic Fluctuations written by Mr.Eswar Prasad and published by International Monetary Fund. This book was released on 1999-11-01 with total page 39 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper develops an aggregation procedure using time-varying weights for constructing the common component of international economic fluctuations. The methodology for deriving time-varying weights is based on some stylized features of the data documented in the paper. The model allows for a unified treatment of cyclical and seasonal fluctuations and also captures the dynamic propagation of shocks across countries. Correlations of individual country fluctuations with the common component provide evidence of a “world business cycle” and a distinct European common component. The results suggest that macroeconomic fluctuations have become more closely linked across industrial economies in the post–Bretton Woods period.
Download or read book Journal of MONETARY ECONOMICS written by and published by . This book was released on 1999 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author : Johan van Overtveldt
Publisher : Agate Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1932841199
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.9/5 (328 download)
Download or read book The Chicago School written by Johan van Overtveldt and published by Agate Publishing. This book was released on 2007 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Publisher description
Author : Clarence L. Barber
Publisher : University of Toronto Press
ISBN 13 : 1442633263
Total Pages : 278 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (426 download)
Download or read book Inventories and the Business Cycle written by Clarence L. Barber and published by University of Toronto Press. This book was released on 1958-12-15 with total page 278 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This study falls into two parts. Part I contains a theoretical analysis of the relation of inventories and inventory fluctuations to the business cycle. It begins with a brief survey of the treatment of inventories in the literature of business cycles. Then a theoretical model of the economic system is developed as a basis for judging the nature and importance of inventory fluctuations in the economy. Part II is a study of inventory fluctuations in Canada over the period from 1918 to 1950 and provides some inductive verification of the preceding theoretical argument. The behaviour of inventories in ten important manufacturing industries is analysed in detail. This part also contains analysis of the movement of total inventories and of the behaviour of inventories in the main industrial subdivisions of the economy. Finally a brief chapter relates these findings to the theoretical analysis of Part I. Canadian Studies in Economics, No. 10.
Author : Kai Ming Lee
Publisher : Rozenberg Publishers
ISBN 13 : 9036101697
Total Pages : 150 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (361 download)
Download or read book Filtering None-Linear State Space Models. Methods and Economic Applications written by Kai Ming Lee and published by Rozenberg Publishers. This book was released on 2010 with total page 150 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
Author :
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 640 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (273 download)
Download or read book International Journal of Production Economics written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 640 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:
