Individual Expectations And Aggregate Macro Behavior

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Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior

Author : Tiziana Assenza
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 59 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (13 download)

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Book Synopsis Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior by : Tiziana Assenza

Download or read book Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior written by Tiziana Assenza and published by . This book was released on 2015 with total page 59 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy, within a standard New Keynesian model, by means of laboratory experiments with human subjects. Three aggregate outcomes are observed: convergence to some equilibrium level, persistent oscillatory behavior and oscillatory convergence. We fit a heterogeneous expectations model with a performance-based evolutionary selection among heterogeneous forecasting heuristics to the experimental data. A simple heterogeneous expectations switching model fits individual learning as well as aggregate macro behavior and outperforms homogeneous expectations benchmarks. Moreover, in accordance to theoretical results in the literature on monetary policy, we find that an interest rate rule that reacts more than point for point to inflation has some stabilizing effects on inflation in our experimental economies, although convergence can be slow in presence of evolutionary learning.

Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior

Author : Tiziana Assenza
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 43 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (837 download)

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Book Synopsis Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior by : Tiziana Assenza

Download or read book Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior written by Tiziana Assenza and published by . This book was released on 2011 with total page 43 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Bounded Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Macroeconomics

Author : Domenico Massaro
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 9789036102889
Total Pages : 208 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (28 download)

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Book Synopsis Bounded Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Macroeconomics by : Domenico Massaro

Download or read book Bounded Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Macroeconomics written by Domenico Massaro and published by . This book was released on 2012 with total page 208 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This thesis studies the effect of individual bounded rationality on aggregate macroeconomic dynamics. Boundedly rational agents are specified as using simple heuristics in their decision making. An important aspect of the type of bounded rationality described in this thesis is that the population of agents is heterogeneous, that is, actors can choose from different rules to solve te same economic problem. The set of rules is disciplined by an evolutionary selection mechanism where the best performing rule, measured according to some fitness metric, attracts the higher number of agents. An important role in triggering switching between rules is played by the dynamic feedback between individual expectations of macroeconomic variables and their aggregate realizations. The macroeconomic models with heuristics switching developed in the thesis are used to evalutate standard policy advices and to explain aggregate time series data as well as experimental data on individual expectations and aggregate macro behavior.

Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems

Author : Cars Hommes
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 1139619780
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (396 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems by : Cars Hommes

Download or read book Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems written by Cars Hommes and published by Cambridge University Press. This book was released on 2013-01-24 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Recognising that the economy is a complex system with boundedly rational interacting agents, the book presents a theory of behavioral rationality and heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems and confronts the nonlinear dynamic models with empirical stylized facts and laboratory experiments. The complexity modeling paradigm has been strongly advocated since the late 1980s by some economists and by multidisciplinary scientists from various fields, such as physics, computer science and biology. More recently the complexity view has also drawn the attention of policy makers, who are faced with complex phenomena, irregular fluctuations and sudden, unpredictable market transitions. The complexity tools - bifurcations, chaos, multiple equilibria - discussed in this book will help students, researchers and policy makers to build more realistic behavioral models with heterogeneous expectations to describe financial market movements and macro-economic fluctuations, in order to better manage crises in a complex global economy.

Rethinking Expectations

Author : Roman Frydman
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691155232
Total Pages : 440 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis Rethinking Expectations by : Roman Frydman

Download or read book Rethinking Expectations written by Roman Frydman and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2013 with total page 440 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book originated from a 2010 conference marking the fortieth anniversary of the publication of the landmark "Phelps volume," Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, a book that is often credited with pioneering the currently dominant approach to macroeconomic analysis. However, in their provocative introductory essay, Roman Frydman and Edmund Phelps argue that the vast majority of macroeconomic and finance models developed over the last four decades derailed, rather than built on, the Phelps volume's "microfoundations" approach. Whereas the contributors to the 1970 volume recognized the fundamental importance of according market participants' expectations an autonomous role, contemporary models rely on the rational expectations hypothesis (REH), which rules out such a role by design. The financial crisis that began in 2007, preceded by a spectacular boom and bust in asset prices that REH models implied could never happen, has spurred a quest for fresh approaches to macroeconomic analysis. While the alternatives to REH presented in Rethinking Expectations differ from the approach taken in the original Phelps volume, they are notable for returning to its major theme: understanding aggregate outcomes requires according expectations an autonomous role. In the introductory essay, Frydman and Phelps interpret the various efforts to reconstruct the field--some of which promise to chart its direction for decades to come. The contributors include Philippe Aghion, Sheila Dow, George W. Evans, Roger E. A. Farmer, Roman Frydman, Michael D. Goldberg, Roger Guesnerie, Seppo Honkapohja, Katarina Juselius, Enisse Kharroubi, Blake LeBaron, Edmund S. Phelps, John B. Taylor, Michael Woodford, and Gylfi Zoega.

Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forecast Experiments

Author : Carsien Harm Hommes
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 40 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (276 download)

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Book Synopsis Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forecast Experiments by : Carsien Harm Hommes

Download or read book Individual Expectations and Aggregate Behavior in Learning to Forecast Experiments written by Carsien Harm Hommes and published by . This book was released on 2008 with total page 40 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Inflation Expectations

Author : Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher : Routledge
ISBN 13 : 1135179778
Total Pages : 402 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (351 download)

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Book Synopsis Inflation Expectations by : Peter J. N. Sinclair

Download or read book Inflation Expectations written by Peter J. N. Sinclair and published by Routledge. This book was released on 2009-12-16 with total page 402 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems

Author : Cars Hommes
Publisher : Cambridge University Press
ISBN 13 : 110701929X
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioral Rationality and Heterogeneous Expectations in Complex Economic Systems by : Cars Hommes

How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior?

Author : Christopher Roth
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (19 download)

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Book Synopsis How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior? by : Christopher Roth

Download or read book How Do Expectations about the Macroeconomy Affect Personal Expectations and Behavior? written by Christopher Roth and published by . This book was released on 2018 with total page pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Policymakers attach an important role to the macroeconomic outlook of households. Using a representative online panel form the U.S., the authors examine how individuals' macroeconomic expectations causally affect their personal economic prospects and their behavior and provide them with different professional forecasts about the likelihood of a recession. The authors find that groups with the largest exposure to aggregate risk, such as individuals working in cyclical industries, are most likely to respond to an improved macroeconomic outlook, while a large fraction of the population is unlikely to react.

Experiments in Macroeconomics

Author : John Duffy
Publisher : Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1784411949
Total Pages : 320 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (844 download)

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Book Synopsis Experiments in Macroeconomics by : John Duffy

Download or read book Experiments in Macroeconomics written by John Duffy and published by Emerald Group Publishing. This book was released on 2014-11-14 with total page 320 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Volume 17 entitled 'Experiments in Macroeconomics', of the Research in Experimental Economics Book Series is the first-ever collection by leading researchers in the field of laboratory studies aimed at understanding macroeconomic phenomena.

Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling

Author : Cars Hommes
Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0444641327
Total Pages : 836 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (446 download)

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Book Synopsis Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling by : Cars Hommes

Download or read book Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling written by Cars Hommes and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2018-06-27 with total page 836 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Handbook of Computational Economics: Heterogeneous Agent Modeling, Volume Four, focuses on heterogeneous agent models, emphasizing recent advances in macroeconomics (including DSGE), finance, empirical validation and experiments, networks and related applications. Capturing the advances made since the publication of Volume Two (Tesfatsion & Judd, 2006), it provides high-level literature with sections devoted to Macroeconomics, Finance, Empirical Validation and Experiments, Networks, and other applications, including Innovation Diffusion in Heterogeneous Populations, Market Design and Electricity Markets, and a final section on Perspectives on Heterogeneity. Helps readers fully understand the dynamic properties of realistically rendered economic systems Emphasizes detailed specifications of structural conditions, institutional arrangements and behavioral dispositions Provides broad assessments that can lead researchers to recognize new synergies and opportunities

Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes

Author : Roman Frydman
Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 47 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (249 download)

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Book Synopsis Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes by : Roman Frydman

Download or read book Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes written by Roman Frydman and published by . This book was released on 1983* with total page 47 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Behavioural Macroeconomics

Author : Paul De Grauwe
Publisher :
ISBN 13 : 019883232X
Total Pages : 273 pages
Book Rating : 4.1/5 (988 download)

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Book Synopsis Behavioural Macroeconomics by : Paul De Grauwe

Download or read book Behavioural Macroeconomics written by Paul De Grauwe and published by . This book was released on 2019-10-17 with total page 273 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Modern macroeconomics has been based on the paradigm of the rational individual capable of understanding the complexity of the world. This has created a very shallow theory of the business cycle in which nothing happens in the macroeconomy unless shocks occur from outside. Behavioural Macroeconomics: Theory and Policy uses a different paradigm. It assumes that individual agents experience cognitive limitations preventing them from having rational expectations. Instead these individuals use simple rules of behaviour. Behavioural Macroeconomics introduces rationality by allowing individuals to learn from their mistakes and to switch to the rules that perform better. It introduces the idea of endogenously generated "animals spirits" that drive the business cycle and are in turn influenced by it, and applies this model to shed new light on a number of important issues. It analyses the role of fiscal policy in stabilizing the economy while maintaining debt sustainability; expands the model to include a banking sector and show how banks amplify the booms and busts; and explains how animal spirits help to synchronize the business cycles across countries. The model set out in Behavioural Macroeconomics leads to very different policy implications from the mainstream macroeconomic model. It shows how policymakers have a responsibility to stabilize an otherwise unstable system.

Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Experimental Economics

Author : Arthur Schram
Publisher : Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN 13 : 1788110560
Total Pages : 448 pages
Book Rating : 4.7/5 (881 download)

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Book Synopsis Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Experimental Economics by : Arthur Schram

Download or read book Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Experimental Economics written by Arthur Schram and published by Edward Elgar Publishing. This book was released on 2019 with total page 448 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This volume offers a comprehensive review of experimental methods in economics. Its 21 chapters cover theoretical and practical issues such as incentives, theory and policy development, data analysis, recruitment, software and laboratory organization. The Handbook includes separate parts on procedures, field experiments and neuroeconomics, and provides the first methodological overview of replication studies and a novel set-valued equilibrium concept. As a whole, the combination of basic methods and current developments will aid both beginners and advanced experimental economists.

Computer Simulation Validation

Author : Claus Beisbart
Publisher : Springer
ISBN 13 : 3319707663
Total Pages : 1074 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (197 download)

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Book Synopsis Computer Simulation Validation by : Claus Beisbart

Download or read book Computer Simulation Validation written by Claus Beisbart and published by Springer. This book was released on 2019-04-09 with total page 1074 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This unique volume introduces and discusses the methods of validating computer simulations in scientific research. The core concepts, strategies, and techniques of validation are explained by an international team of pre-eminent authorities, drawing on expertise from various fields ranging from engineering and the physical sciences to the social sciences and history. The work also offers new and original philosophical perspectives on the validation of simulations. Topics and features: introduces the fundamental concepts and principles related to the validation of computer simulations, and examines philosophical frameworks for thinking about validation; provides an overview of the various strategies and techniques available for validating simulations, as well as the preparatory steps that have to be taken prior to validation; describes commonly used reference points and mathematical frameworks applicable to simulation validation; reviews the legal prescriptions, and the administrative and procedural activities related to simulation validation; presents examples of best practice that demonstrate how methods of validation are applied in various disciplines and with different types of simulation models; covers important practical challenges faced by simulation scientists when applying validation methods and techniques; offers a selection of general philosophical reflections that explore the significance of validation from a broader perspective. This truly interdisciplinary handbook will appeal to a broad audience, from professional scientists spanning all natural and social sciences, to young scholars new to research with computer simulations. Philosophers of science, and methodologists seeking to increase their understanding of simulation validation, will also find much to benefit from in the text.

The Handbook of Experimental Economics, Volume 2

Author : John H. Kagel
Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 0691139997
Total Pages : 770 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (911 download)

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Book Synopsis The Handbook of Experimental Economics, Volume 2 by : John H. Kagel

Download or read book The Handbook of Experimental Economics, Volume 2 written by John H. Kagel and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2016-10-04 with total page 770 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: An indispensable survey of new developments and results in experimental economics When The Handbook of Experimental Economics first came out in 1995, the notion of economists conducting lab experiments to generate data was relatively new. Since then, the field has exploded. This second volume of the Handbook covers some of the most exciting new growth areas in experimental economics, presents the latest results and experimental methods, and identifies promising new directions for future research. Featuring contributions by leading practitioners, the Handbook describes experiments in macroeconomics, charitable giving, neuroeconomics, other-regarding preferences, market design, political economy, subject population effects, gender effects, auctions, and learning and the economics of small decisions. Contributors focus on key developments and report on experiments, highlighting the dialogue between experimenters and theorists. While most of the experiments consist of laboratory studies, the book also includes several chapters that report extensively on field experiments related to the subject area studied. Covers exciting new growth areas in experimental economics Features contributions by leading experts Describes experiments in macroeconomics, charitable giving, neuroeconomics, market design, political economy, gender effects, auctions, and more Highlights the dialogue by experimenters with theorists and each other Includes several chapters covering field experiments related to the subject area studied

NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003

Author : Mark Gertler
Publisher : Mit Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262072533
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (725 download)

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Book Synopsis NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 by : Mark Gertler

Download or read book NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003 written by Mark Gertler and published by Mit Press. This book was released on 2004 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The NBER Macroeconomics Annual presents pioneering work in macroeconomics by leading academic researchers to an audience of public policymakers and the academic community. Each commissioned paper is followed by comments and discussion. This year's edition provides a mix of cutting-edge research and policy analysis on such topics as productivity and information technology, the increase in wealth inequality, behavioral economics, and inflation.