Index-option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forecasts

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis Index-option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forecasts by : Robert F. Engle

Download or read book Index-option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forecasts written by Robert F. Engle and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In pricing primary-market options and in making secondary markets, financial intermediaries depend on the quality of forecasts of the variance of the underlying assets. Hence, the gain from improved pricing of options would be a measure of the value of a forecast of underlying asset returns. NYSE index returns over the period of 1968-1991 are used to suggest that pricing index options of up to 90-days maturity would be more accurate when: (1) using ARCH specifications in place of a moving average of squared returns; (2) using Hull and White's (1987) adjustment for stochastic variance in Black and Scholes's (1973) formula; (3) accounting explicitly for weekends and the slowdown of variance whenever the market is closed.

Index-option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forescasts

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 0 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (143 download)

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Book Synopsis Index-option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forescasts by : Robert F. Engle

Download or read book Index-option Pricing with Stochastic Volatility and the Value of Accurate Variance Forescasts written by Robert F. Engle and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets

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Publisher : Elsevier
ISBN 13 : 0080471420
Total Pages : 432 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (84 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets by : Stephen Satchell

Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by Stephen Satchell and published by Elsevier. This book was released on 2011-02-24 with total page 432 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This new edition of Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting-edge modelling and forecasting techniques. It provides a survey of ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return. Editors John Knight and Stephen Satchell have brought together an impressive array of contributors who present research from their area of specialization related to volatility forecasting. Readers with an understanding of volatility measures and risk management strategies will benefit from this collection of up-to-date chapters on the latest techniques in forecasting volatility. Chapters new to this third edition: * What good is a volatility model? Engle and Patton * Applications for portfolio variety Dan diBartolomeo * A comparison of the properties of realized variance for the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 equity indices Rob Cornish * Volatility modeling and forecasting in finance Xiao and Aydemir * An investigation of the relative performance of GARCH models versus simple rules in forecasting volatility Thomas A. Silvey * Leading thinkers present newest research on volatility forecasting *International authors cover a broad array of subjects related to volatility forecasting *Assumes basic knowledge of volatility, financial mathematics, and modelling

Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics

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Publisher : Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN 13 : 1441977007
Total Pages : 919 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (419 download)

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Book Synopsis Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics by : Robert A. Meyers

Download or read book Complex Systems in Finance and Econometrics written by Robert A. Meyers and published by Springer Science & Business Media. This book was released on 2010-11-03 with total page 919 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Finance, Econometrics and System Dynamics presents an overview of the concepts and tools for analyzing complex systems in a wide range of fields. The text integrates complexity with deterministic equations and concepts from real world examples, and appeals to a broad audience.

Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets

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Publisher : Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN 13 : 9780750655156
Total Pages : 428 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (551 download)

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Book Synopsis Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets by : John L. Knight

Download or read book Forecasting Volatility in the Financial Markets written by John L. Knight and published by Butterworth-Heinemann. This book was released on 2002 with total page 428 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This text assumes that the reader has a firm grounding in the key principles and methods of understanding volatility measurement and builds on that knowledge to detail cutting edge modeling and forecasting techniques. It then uses a technical survey to explain the different ways to measure risk and define the different models of volatility and return.

Computational Finance 1999

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Publisher : MIT Press
ISBN 13 : 9780262511070
Total Pages : 744 pages
Book Rating : 4.5/5 (11 download)

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Book Synopsis Computational Finance 1999 by : Yaser S. Abu-Mostafa

Download or read book Computational Finance 1999 written by Yaser S. Abu-Mostafa and published by MIT Press. This book was released on 2000 with total page 744 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This book covers the techniques of data mining, knowledge discovery, genetic algorithms, neural networks, bootstrapping, machine learning, and Monte Carlo simulation. Computational finance, an exciting new cross-disciplinary research area, draws extensively on the tools and techniques of computer science, statistics, information systems, and financial economics. This book covers the techniques of data mining, knowledge discovery, genetic algorithms, neural networks, bootstrapping, machine learning, and Monte Carlo simulation. These methods are applied to a wide range of problems in finance, including risk management, asset allocation, style analysis, dynamic trading and hedging, forecasting, and option pricing. The book is based on the sixth annual international conference Computational Finance 1999, held at New York University's Stern School of Business.

ARCH Models for Financial Applications

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 9780470688021
Total Pages : 558 pages
Book Rating : 4.6/5 (88 download)

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Book Synopsis ARCH Models for Financial Applications by : Evdokia Xekalaki

Download or read book ARCH Models for Financial Applications written by Evdokia Xekalaki and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2010-03-18 with total page 558 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) processes are used in finance to model asset price volatility over time. This book introduces both the theory and applications of ARCH models and provides the basic theoretical and empirical background, before proceeding to more advanced issues and applications. The Authors provide coverage of the recent developments in ARCH modelling which can be implemented using econometric software, model construction, fitting and forecasting and model evaluation and selection. Key Features: Presents a comprehensive overview of both the theory and the practical applications of ARCH, an increasingly popular financial modelling technique. Assumes no prior knowledge of ARCH models; the basics such as model construction are introduced, before proceeding to more complex applications such as value-at-risk, option pricing and model evaluation. Uses empirical examples to demonstrate how the recent developments in ARCH can be implemented. Provides step-by-step instructive examples, using econometric software, such as Econometric Views and the G@RCH module for the Ox software package, used in Estimating and Forecasting ARCH Models. Accompanied by a CD-ROM containing links to the software as well as the datasets used in the examples. Aimed at readers wishing to gain an aptitude in the applications of financial econometric modelling with a focus on practical implementation, via applications to real data and via examples worked with econometrics packages.

Time Series Models

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Publisher : CRC Press
ISBN 13 : 1000152944
Total Pages : 243 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 (1 download)

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Book Synopsis Time Series Models by : D.R. Cox

Download or read book Time Series Models written by D.R. Cox and published by CRC Press. This book was released on 2020-11-26 with total page 243 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: The analysis prediction and interpolation of economic and other time series has a long history and many applications. Major new developments are taking place, driven partly by the need to analyze financial data. The five papers in this book describe those new developments from various viewpoints and are intended to be an introduction accessible to readers from a range of backgrounds. The book arises out of the second Seminaire European de Statistique (SEMSTAT) held in Oxford in December 1994. This brought together young statisticians from across Europe, and a series of introductory lectures were given on topics at the forefront of current research activity. The lectures form the basis for the five papers contained in the book. The papers by Shephard and Johansen deal respectively with time series models for volatility, i.e. variance heterogeneity, and with cointegration. Clements and Hendry analyze the nature of prediction errors. A complementary review paper by Laird gives a biometrical view of the analysis of short time series. Finally Astrup and Nielsen give a mathematical introduction to the study of option pricing. Whilst the book draws its primary motivation from financial series and from multivariate econometric modelling, the applications are potentially much broader.

Portfolio Risk Analysis

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Publisher : Princeton University Press
ISBN 13 : 1400835291
Total Pages : 400 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (8 download)

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Book Synopsis Portfolio Risk Analysis by : Gregory Connor

Download or read book Portfolio Risk Analysis written by Gregory Connor and published by Princeton University Press. This book was released on 2010-03-15 with total page 400 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Portfolio risk forecasting has been and continues to be an active research field for both academics and practitioners. Almost all institutional investment management firms use quantitative models for their portfolio forecasting, and researchers have explored models' econometric foundations, relative performance, and implications for capital market behavior and asset pricing equilibrium. Portfolio Risk Analysis provides an insightful and thorough overview of financial risk modeling, with an emphasis on practical applications, empirical reality, and historical perspective. Beginning with mean-variance analysis and the capital asset pricing model, the authors give a comprehensive and detailed account of factor models, which are the key to successful risk analysis in every economic climate. Topics range from the relative merits of fundamental, statistical, and macroeconomic models, to GARCH and other time series models, to the properties of the VIX volatility index. The book covers both mainstream and alternative asset classes, and includes in-depth treatments of model integration and evaluation. Credit and liquidity risk and the uncertainty of extreme events are examined in an intuitive and rigorous way. An extensive literature review accompanies each topic. The authors complement basic modeling techniques with references to applications, empirical studies, and advanced mathematical texts. This book is essential for financial practitioners, researchers, scholars, and students who want to understand the nature of financial markets or work toward improving them.

A Test of Efficiency for the S & P 500 Index Option Market Using Variance Forecasts

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ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 48 pages
Book Rating : 4.0/5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis A Test of Efficiency for the S & P 500 Index Option Market Using Variance Forecasts by : Jaesun Noh

Download or read book A Test of Efficiency for the S & P 500 Index Option Market Using Variance Forecasts written by Jaesun Noh and published by . This book was released on 1993 with total page 48 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: To forecast future option prices, autoregressive models of implied volatility derived from observed option prices are commonly employed [see Day and Lewis (1990), and Harvey and Whaley (1992)]. In contrast, the ARCH model proposed by Engle (1982) models the dynamic behavior in volatility, forecasting future volatility using only the return series of an asset. We assess the performance of these two volatility prediction models from S&P 500 index options market data over the period from September 1986 to December 1991 by employing two agents who trade straddles, each using one of the two different methods of forecast. Straddle trading is employed since a straddle does not need to be hedged. Each agent prices options according to her chosen method of forecast, buying (selling) straddles when her forecast price for tomorrow is higher (lower) than today's market closing price, and at the end of each day the rates of return are computed. We find that the agent using the GARCH forecast method earns greater profit than the agent who uses the implied volatility regression (IVR) forecast model. In particular, the agent using the GARCH forecast method earns a profit in excess of a cost of $0.25 per straddle with the near-the-money straddle trading.

Volatility

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 472 pages
Book Rating : 4.3/5 (91 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility by : Robert A. Jarrow

Download or read book Volatility written by Robert A. Jarrow and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 472 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Written by a number of authors, this text is aimed at market practitioners and applies the latest stochastic volatility research findings to the analysis of stock prices. It includes commentary and analysis based on real-life situations.

Volatility and Correlation

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Publisher : John Wiley & Sons
ISBN 13 : 0470091401
Total Pages : 864 pages
Book Rating : 4.4/5 (7 download)

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Book Synopsis Volatility and Correlation by : Riccardo Rebonato

Download or read book Volatility and Correlation written by Riccardo Rebonato and published by John Wiley & Sons. This book was released on 2005-07-08 with total page 864 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: In Volatility and Correlation 2nd edition: The Perfect Hedger and the Fox, Rebonato looks at derivatives pricing from the angle of volatility and correlation. With both practical and theoretical applications, this is a thorough update of the highly successful Volatility & Correlation – with over 80% new or fully reworked material and is a must have both for practitioners and for students. The new and updated material includes a critical examination of the ‘perfect-replication’ approach to derivatives pricing, with special attention given to exotic options; a thorough analysis of the role of quadratic variation in derivatives pricing and hedging; a discussion of the informational efficiency of markets in commonly-used calibration and hedging practices. Treatment of new models including Variance Gamma, displaced diffusion, stochastic volatility for interest-rate smiles and equity/FX options. The book is split into four parts. Part I deals with a Black world without smiles, sets out the author’s ‘philosophical’ approach and covers deterministic volatility. Part II looks at smiles in equity and FX worlds. It begins with a review of relevant empirical information about smiles, and provides coverage of local-stochastic-volatility, general-stochastic-volatility, jump-diffusion and Variance-Gamma processes. Part II concludes with an important chapter that discusses if and to what extent one can dispense with an explicit specification of a model, and can directly prescribe the dynamics of the smile surface. Part III focusses on interest rates when the volatility is deterministic. Part IV extends this setting in order to account for smiles in a financially motivated and computationally tractable manner. In this final part the author deals with CEV processes, with diffusive stochastic volatility and with Markov-chain processes. Praise for the First Edition: “In this book, Dr Rebonato brings his penetrating eye to bear on option pricing and hedging.... The book is a must-read for those who already know the basics of options and are looking for an edge in applying the more sophisticated approaches that have recently been developed.” —Professor Ian Cooper, London Business School “Volatility and correlation are at the very core of all option pricing and hedging. In this book, Riccardo Rebonato presents the subject in his characteristically elegant and simple fashion...A rare combination of intellectual insight and practical common sense.” —Anthony Neuberger, London Business School

Evaluating Forecasts of Correlation Using Option Pricing

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 60 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Evaluating Forecasts of Correlation Using Option Pricing by : Michael S. Gibson

Download or read book Evaluating Forecasts of Correlation Using Option Pricing written by Michael S. Gibson and published by . This book was released on 1997 with total page 60 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

International Journal of forecasting

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 810 pages
Book Rating : 4./5 ( download)

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Book Synopsis International Journal of forecasting by :

Download or read book International Journal of forecasting written by and published by . This book was released on 2004 with total page 810 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Journal of Banking & Finance

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 1300 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (45 download)

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Book Synopsis Journal of Banking & Finance by :

Download or read book Journal of Banking & Finance written by and published by . This book was released on 2002 with total page 1300 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Working Paper Series

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 570 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (54 download)

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Book Synopsis Working Paper Series by :

Download or read book Working Paper Series written by and published by . This book was released on 1998 with total page 570 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt:

Evaluating Covariance Matrix Forecasts in a Value-at-risk Framework

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Publisher :
ISBN 13 :
Total Pages : 62 pages
Book Rating : 4.:/5 (318 download)

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Book Synopsis Evaluating Covariance Matrix Forecasts in a Value-at-risk Framework by : Jose A. Lopez

Download or read book Evaluating Covariance Matrix Forecasts in a Value-at-risk Framework written by Jose A. Lopez and published by . This book was released on 2000 with total page 62 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: